Group 1: Court Ruling and Implications - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled to suspend the tariff policy announced by the Trump administration on April 2, citing it as unconstitutional under the IEEPA[2] - The court's decision mandates the Trump administration to cancel these tariffs within 10 days of the ruling[4] - The ruling specifically affects tariffs imposed under the IEEPA, while tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act remain unaffected[4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - If the court's ruling stands, the current tariff strategy of the Trump administration may be deemed a failure, leading to a reduced probability of significant tariff increases in Q2 and Q3[6] - The expected average CPI growth for 2025 is projected to remain below 3% due to reduced demand shocks from tariffs[6] - The Federal Reserve may consider lowering interest rates sooner, with a potential first cut in September, as inflationary pressures ease[6] Group 3: Scenarios and Market Reactions - Three scenarios are considered: (1) the ruling is upheld, (2) a temporary stay is granted, or (3) the ruling is overturned[5] - In the event of a ruling upholding the suspension, the U.S. economy may see a slowdown to 1.5% or lower for the year[7] - Following the court's decision, gold prices fell, while U.S. stock index futures rose, indicating a mixed market reaction[7]

美国12个州组成联盟于4月23日共同起诉特朗普政府，指控其关税政策违法。 当地时间5月21日，这起诉讼将开庭审理。这次诉讼是否会取得成功？ 0:00 / 2:18 央视记者 刘旭：特朗普上任以来，在关税措施上一直有新的举措，引起了全世界的关注和担忧。最近，因为关税政策的不稳定，对美国经济多个领域 的影响已经逐步显现，美国老百姓也真切感受到要为特朗普的关税政策埋单了。美国经济承压、民众生活负担增加，也让特朗普再次面临了官司。 诉讼核心直指特朗普动用IEEPA的合法性 记者：5月21日，位于纽约的美国国际贸易法院开始审理包括俄勒冈州、亚利桑那州、纽约州在内的12个州指控美国联邦政府关税政策违法的联合诉 讼。诉讼的核心是特朗普无权在未获国会批准的情况下加征关税，认为特朗普滥用《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA），将其作为实施广泛贸易政策的工 具，违反了宪法对行政权力的限制。IEEPA指的是1977年美国通过的国际紧急经济权力法案，该法案原本旨在应对"来自国外的异常且非同寻常的威胁"，其 是否适用于贸易逆差引发了法律界的质疑。 特朗普第一任期内也曾面临类似诉讼 记者：美国媒体分析认为，这一次对特朗普的联合诉讼，预计将 ...