Core Viewpoint - The research process is iterative and requires continuous denial and reconstruction to approach the truth, emphasizing the importance of diligent and practical research in the investment banking sector [22]. Group 1 - The year 2025 is marked as a year of comprehensive upgrades for the research team, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research results [22]. - The new development phase of the economy is characterized by a shift in policy focus towards "people-centered" strategies, emphasizing long-term strategies for expanding domestic demand rather than short-term stimuli [25]. - The "new three drivers" of the economy, including service consumption, service industry investment, and service exports, have shown significant acceleration, indicating an approaching transformation opportunity [24]. Group 2 - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, with increased government and industry attention, broader coverage, and stronger coordination between policies and market mechanisms [26]. - The global macroeconomic landscape is expected to experience significant changes, particularly with the "American exceptionalism" narrative being challenged, and the need to understand the trends of global capital rebalancing [29]. - Geopolitical risks have become a crucial factor in global macroeconomics and asset pricing since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with ongoing developments in geopolitical situations influencing market narratives [32].

Group 1 - The core investment strategy from Citigroup emphasizes an overweight in U.S. stocks, particularly in the technology sector driven by AI, while underweighting UK stocks [3][4] - Capital expenditure in the U.S. has significantly contributed to GDP, surpassing consumer spending, indicating a robust investment environment [4] - Citigroup maintains a neutral stance on government bonds, anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while suggesting a steepening trade strategy for U.S. Treasuries [5] Group 2 - In the credit market, Citigroup is underweighting investment-grade credit in Europe and the U.S. due to narrow credit spreads, which could provide risk protection in case of economic downturns [4][5] - The outlook for emerging market bonds is optimistic, with a preference for markets like Mexico, Brazil, and South Africa, especially when the U.S. dollar weakens [5][6] - The dollar is facing structural and cyclical bearish pressures, with expectations of continued weakness against the euro and high-yield emerging market currencies [6] Group 3 - Citigroup holds a neutral view on commodities but advocates for a "buy on dips" strategy, particularly for gold, which is seen as a valuable asset for diversification away from the dollar [6][7] - Silver is favored in the current market environment due to its historical performance under specific conditions, such as rising U.S. term premiums and a bullish stock market [7] - Overall, Citigroup expresses a positive outlook on global equity markets, especially in the U.S. due to high exposure to AI, while being cautious on U.S. bonds and maintaining a bearish view on the dollar [7]

Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted investment strategies for the second half of the year, focusing on various asset classes including stocks, bonds, credit, foreign exchange, and commodities [1] Asset Allocation Summary - The company recommends an overweight position in stocks, particularly in the U.S. and somewhat in Europe, while underweighting UK stocks. It holds a neutral stance on government bonds, overweighting emerging market bonds and underweighting Japanese government bonds. Additionally, it is underweight in investment-grade credit in Europe and the U.S., maintains a neutral view on commodities, and advocates shorting the dollar while going long on the euro and some emerging market currencies [3][4] Stock Market Analysis - The "American exceptionalism" narrative has returned, driven by a resurgence in AI trading, with the tech sector leading the U.S. market. Capital expenditures in the U.S. have significantly contributed to GDP, surpassing consumer spending, a rare occurrence. Current capital expenditure guidance remains strong, indicating potential for further U.S. stock market gains [3][4] European Market Insights - Europe is viewed as a quality diversification option due to a turning business cycle and the fact that European investors are the largest holders of U.S. stocks. A shift towards domestic investments could boost European stock markets. Additionally, the company has upgraded its rating on Chinese stocks, citing China's significant AI asset base [4] Credit Market Positioning - The company is underweight in investment-grade credit in Europe and the U.S. due to narrow credit spreads, which could provide risk protection in case of disappointing U.S. economic data. A neutral stance on government bonds is maintained, influenced by potential Fed rate cuts and the need for an increase in the term premium of U.S. Treasuries [4][5] Emerging Market Bonds - The company holds an optimistic view on emerging market bonds, particularly in Mexico, Brazil, and South Africa, expecting better performance when the dollar weakens and U.S. Treasury yields remain stable. Conversely, it is underweight in Japanese government bonds due to the Bank of Japan's ongoing rate hikes [5] Foreign Exchange Outlook - The dollar faces structural and cyclical bearish pressures, with expectations of continued weakness through the end of the year. This trend is anticipated to affect not only the euro but also high-yield emerging market currencies, which may benefit from carry trade opportunities [6] Commodity Market Strategy - The company maintains a neutral stance on all commodities but advocates a "buy on dips" strategy, particularly for gold, which is seen as a key asset for diversification away from the dollar. Silver is favored due to favorable market conditions that typically enhance its performance [7] Overall Market Sentiment - The company expresses a positive outlook on global stock markets, especially in the U.S. due to high exposure to AI, while adopting a cautious approach towards U.S. bonds and favoring emerging market bonds. The bearish view on the dollar remains consistent [7]

【导读】QDII基金限购不断加码 今年6月底，多家合格境内机构投资者获批新的QDII额度，不少QDII基金一度恢复正常申购业务或提升申购限制金额。 不过，近期QDII基金限购再现加码之势，多只基金降低大额申购限额，最低降至500元。 就在一周前，该基金刚公告，自8月7日起将大额申购限额调整为2000元，而在7月初时，这一门槛刚调整到10000元。 无独有偶。同日，华宝基金旗下华宝纳斯达克精选股票（QDII）、华宝标普美国品质消费股票指数基金（LOF）、华宝标普石油天然气上游股票指数 （LOF）也发布调整大额申购金额上限的公告，最新限额在500元—1000元不等。 跟华宝海外科技股票（QDII-LOF）一样，上述基金自7月初以来也多次调整限购门槛，自10000元—20000元限额水平持续下调。 | 基金名称 | | 华宝海外科技股票型证券投资基金(QDII-LOF) | | --- | --- | --- | | 基金简称 | | 华宝海外科技股票(QDII-LOF) | | 基金主代码 | | 501312 | | 基金管理人名称 | | 华宝基金管理有限公司 | | 公告依据 | | 《华宝海外科技股票型证 ...

经历了近半年的关税冲击，究竟如今机构在"分散美元敞口"方面进展到哪一步了？ 今年以来，"去美元化"成为全球关注的话题，美国的政策不确定性、财政可持续性顾虑导致全球机构开始考虑分散美元持仓，黄金、欧洲股市、港股等都成 为受益对象。经历了近半年的关税冲击，究竟如今机构在"分散美元敞口"方面进展到哪一步了？ 塔瓦齐对记者表示，自二战以来，美国为全球秩序提供了三大支柱：经济稳定（由持续强劲的美国消费支撑）、安全保障（为欧洲和亚洲盟国提供地缘安 全）、以及高回报资产（主要由美股特别是科技巨头驱动）。在这种体系下，其他国家通过对美贸易顺差积累资金，并将这些资金重新投资于美国市场，形 成了一个被称为"布雷顿森林体系2.0"的非正式全球资本循环机制。然而，随着美国财政问题的加剧，"无风险利率"这一概念开始受到质疑，体系的稳定性 也面临挑战。 他还指出，外国投资者持有32%（19万亿美元）的美股和35%（13万亿美元）的美债，是美国金融体系的重要资金来源。 标普500在MSCI国际指数中的权重 从2010年的50%上升至如今的72%，反映出美股长期的优异表现。 但由于亚洲的结构性崛起以及地缘经济挑战，这种主导地位在未来十年可能 ...

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a prevailing trend of rising stock prices and falling bond prices. The overall monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting the bond market fundamentals and liquidity [17] - The A-share market shows a slight decline with a trading volume of 1.73 trillion, indicating a decrease in market sentiment but still active trading. The index is expected to trend upward, potentially breaking last year's high [20] - The U.S. stock market shows mixed performance, with the Dow Jones down 0.51% and the Nasdaq up 0.35%. Long-term trends suggest that U.S. stocks may outperform non-U.S. markets [24][25] Group 2: Important Policies and News - In July, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The retail sales of new energy vehicles also grew by 12% [36] - Shanghai has introduced a social insurance subsidy policy for female employees during maternity leave, covering 50% of the costs for employers [38] - The U.S. has seen a significant policy shift allowing 401K accounts to invest in cryptocurrencies and private equity, marking a historic moment [41] Group 3: Trading Strategies - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations followed by high-level oscillations, while the A-share market is recommended to adopt a bullish stance, focusing on holding positions [7][20] - The strategy for the U.S. stock market remains bullish in the medium to long term, indicating a continuation of the bull market [8] - In the foreign exchange market, a strategic long position on the U.S. dollar is advised, as shorting the dollar lacks cost-effectiveness [29] Group 4: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index has decreased by 0.2%, but it shows signs of stabilization and recovery. The recommendation is to buy on dips, using the low point from July 10 as support [31]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3600, led by the military and robotics sectors. The total market turnover reached 1.61 trillion, an increase from the previous trading day, with all 31 Shenwan first-level industries rising and nearly 3700 stocks gaining [2][21] - Current market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations for the index to continue rising until it surpasses the high point from October 8 of the previous year. Short-term support for the index is strong around 3420 points, which can be used as a reference for market strength [2][21] - The long-term upward trend is supported by recent policy shifts indicating a focus on fiscal spending directed towards households, such as the introduction of birth subsidies, which, while still less than those in developed countries, signal a shift in policy direction [2][21] Group 2: U.S. Market Insights - The U.S. stock market indices rebounded strongly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.34%, the Nasdaq by 1.95%, and the S&P 500 by 1.47%. Market expectations are leaning towards a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with strong buying interest driving the indices back into an upward trend [3][26] - The trade war has resulted in increased tariff revenues for the U.S., and the healthy state of household balance sheets allows consumers to manage the impact of moderate tariffs. In contrast, non-U.S. economies face risks due to previous currency appreciation affecting export revenues [3][26] Group 3: Policy and Industry Developments - The China Passenger Car Association has raised its forecast for 2025 passenger car retail sales growth to 6%, predicting total retail sales of 24.35 million vehicles and exports of 5.46 million vehicles, reflecting a 14% increase [40] - The Chinese government is enhancing support for emerging industries and digital infrastructure, including 5G and industrial internet, to prevent "involution" competition and promote high-quality development [40] - The European Union has not yet reached a consensus with the U.S. on a trade agreement, while Japan's government advisory group has recommended a significant increase in the minimum wage, marking the largest increase since 1978 [40]

一觉醒来，一切都在暴跌： - 道琼斯指数跌1.23%，纳指急挫2.24%；标普 500 指数跌1.6%——创下两个月最大单日跌幅。 本文源自：金融界 对于下跌的原因，人们的看法非常一致——因为非农数据不佳——但这只是看到了皮毛。 第一，真正令市场深感不安，不是7月非农数据本身，而是5月和6月数据被大幅下修，累计下修25.8 万。一个月不会引发市场过度关注，但现在连续三个月数据表现都不佳。 第二，更加令人震撼的是——市场的底层逻辑被动摇，资金的信仰开始动摇。一方面，这是市场第一次 进入"坏消息就是坏消息"的叙事；另一方面，过去市场沉浸在"完美剧本"中"通胀逐步下降 + 就业温和 放缓 + 经济没有衰退"。而现在，市场不再相信软着陆剧本，美国资产也不再是"避风港"，"美国例外 论"开始失效。 第三，过去人们并不支持"解雇鲍威尔"，认为特朗普做得过头了。而昨晚过后，人们开始理解特朗普 ——呼喊9月降息的声音将越来越浓厚。甚至正常降息25基点都不能满足市场的预期，而是要降息50基 点。不再是美联储引导市场预期，而是市场拖着美联储跳崖。即便降息也不是主动预防性降息，而是被 动"屈服性"降息——后者不会引发市场上涨。 当 ...

来源：华尔街情报圈 - 黄金则发挥了避险功能，重新上涨。 对于下跌的原因，人们的看法非常一致——因为非农数据不佳——但这只是看到了皮毛。 第一，真正令市场深感不安，不是7月非农数据本身，而是5月和6月数据被大幅下修，累计下修25.8万。一个月不会引发市场过度关注，但现在连续三个 月数据表现都不佳。 第二，更加令人震撼的是——市场的底层逻辑被动摇，资金的信仰开始动摇。一方面，这是市场第一次进入"坏消息就是坏消息"的叙事；另一方面，过去 市场沉浸在"完美剧本"中"通胀逐步下降 + 就业温和放缓 + 经济没有衰退"。而现在，市场不再相信软着陆剧本，美国资产也不再是"避风港"，"美国例外 论"开始失效。 一觉醒来，一切都在暴跌： - 道琼斯指数跌1.23%，纳指急挫2.24%；标普 500 指数跌1.6%——创下两个月最大单日跌幅。 - 油价暴跌3%； - 美元暴跌1.3%（相当于股市3%-4%的跌幅），一天跌去了过去三天的涨幅。 第三，过去人们并不支持"解雇鲍威尔"，认为特朗普做得过头了。而昨晚过后，人们开始理解特朗普，并成为特朗普——呼喊9月降息的声音将越来越浓 厚。甚至正常降息25基点都不能满足市场的预期，而是 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 相机抉择，静待关税 ──7 月美联储议息会议传递的信号 核心观点 美联储本月继续按兵不动，在前瞻指引上继续维持相机抉择的政策立场，认为当前就 业和通胀两大目标维度均存在潜在风险，未来核心变量基本取决于关税的传导。 值得关注的是：本月两位票委对决议持反对意见支持降息 25BP，分别为特朗普提名的 Bowman 和 Waller（该情况自 1993 年以来首次出现），政治压力传导使得联储内部分 歧加大。展望未来，我们继续维持联储年内降息 2 次，并重点关注缩表可能暂停的前 期观点。 对于近期特朗普拟罢免鲍威尔的联储主席人选"风波"，我们更倾向于其是短期扰 动，对联储中期政策路径影响有限。首先，我们认为鲍威尔年内被解雇的风险有限， 市场本身的负反馈机制对特朗普形成明显制约。其次，即便小概率情形下鲍威尔遭遇 解雇，新任联储主席也未必会保持上任前后的"言行合一"，与特朗普配合执行其预想 中的货币宽松立场，潜在的通胀反弹压力仍将对联储中期的降息路径形成制约。 ❑ 联储继续按兵不动，"相机抉择"的核心要素基本取决于关税的影响 利率区间方面，美联储按兵不动符合会前市场定价，联邦基 ...