2018年至2019年，全球关税风暴下，人民币汇率（如非特指，本文均指人民币兑美元双边汇率）总体承 压。 然而，2025年，面对极限关税施压，人民币不跌反涨，这主要反映了美元指数走弱、国内经济回升和关 税冲突缓解的综合影响。预计前述积极因素对2026年人民币将继续形成支撑，但鉴于内外部不确定不稳 定因素较多，各方需进一步适应汇率双向波动的新常态。 人民币逆势走强 近年来，在世纪疫情冲击、百年变局演进的背景下，受中美经济周期和货币政策分化影响，中美利率倒 挂，人民币汇率涨少跌多、总体承压，由6.30最低跌破7.30。进入2025年以来，随着特朗普重返白宫， 再度掀起全球关税风暴，多边贸易体系受阻，全球产业链供应链重塑，中国首当其冲。 内外部因素共振 人民币之所以避免了上次中美经贸摩擦期间震荡走弱的情形，除2024年四季度（美国大选前后）外汇市 场已提前定价了特朗普冲击，终结了三季度的汇率反弹行情外，还反映了2025年以来内外部积极因素共 振的影响。 一是特朗普交易大幅回撤。上次中美贸易摩擦期间，美国经济表现强劲、美联储加息预期和避险情绪驱 动美元指数从2018年4月中旬的89.4升至2019年9月末的99.4， ...

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market has stabilized after the volatility caused by the "Trump shock," with indicators of dollar volatility returning to pre-election levels [2][3]. Group 1: Market Stability - The volatility expectations for the dollar against the euro and yen have dropped to their lowest point in over a year, recovering some of the losses seen earlier this year [2]. - The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, has also regained some ground, approaching levels seen before Trump's election victory [2]. - A series of tariff agreements among major U.S. trading partners has effectively reduced market volatility, while the U.S. economy has shown more resilience than expected under tariff pressures [2][3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors and analysts have learned to coexist with Trump's policies, adopting a more cautious approach to news headlines [2]. - Some large fund managers believe that previous concerns about U.S. assets were overstated, viewing the dollar's decline as a correction within a bull market rather than a trend reversal [3]. - The significant drop in volatility expectations indicates that the market perceives the "Trump shock" as having ended, with easing trade tensions and a more stable fiscal policy [3]. Group 3: Dollar's Role in Portfolios - The dollar is regaining its traditional role as a stabilizer in investment portfolios, particularly during global pressures [5]. - Fund managers assert that the earlier situation in which the dollar fell alongside risk assets was an anomaly rather than a long-term trend [5]. - The demand for bullish dollar options has surged, indicating a strong belief in the dollar's potential to strengthen [4].

Core Insights - The U.S. market continues to attract global capital despite external challenges, with foreign investors net buying U.S. securities reaching a historic high of $311.1 billion in May 2025, significantly up from $14.2 billion in April [1][5][15] - Over the past 12 months, net foreign capital inflow approached $1.76 trillion, nearing the peak of $1.4 trillion observed in July 2023, indicating a strong reliance on U.S. markets [3][11][15] - The resilience of foreign investors mirrors that of U.S. consumers, showcasing a robust confidence in the U.S. economy despite trade tensions and market volatility [3][11][17] Foreign Investment Trends - In 2024, foreign direct investment in the U.S. increased by $332.1 billion, bringing the total stock to $5.71 trillion, primarily driven by the manufacturing and financial sectors [5][15] - Despite tariff policies causing initial market disruptions, net capital inflow remained strong, with foreign holdings of U.S. securities rebounding to $26.9 trillion by 2024, an increase of $2 trillion from June 2023 [5][11] - By June 2024, foreign holdings of U.S. securities reached $31.288 trillion, with equities accounting for $16.988 trillion, indicating continued confidence in U.S. assets [5][11] Market Resilience and Investor Behavior - The U.S. market's depth and liquidity make it an attractive destination for global investors, who are willing to endure volatility in exchange for stable returns [5][11][15] - Analysts suggest that the high threshold for capital flight from the U.S. indicates a strong foundational economy, with data showing that even amidst tariff threats, investors have not significantly divested from U.S. stocks and bonds [3][11][15] - The overall market resilience is reflected in the quick recovery of indices following initial declines due to tariff announcements, reinforcing the notion that the U.S. remains a safe haven for investment [11][13][15] Expert Opinions - Experts like Robin Brooks argue that predictions of the end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative are premature, as evidenced by the strong capital inflow data [3][11][17] - Concerns about brand damage due to trade wars have not deterred capital from flowing into the U.S., with many analysts affirming the enduring appeal of U.S. assets [7][11][17] - The consensus among experts is that the U.S. continues to provide a stable investment environment that is unmatched by other markets, solidifying its position as a primary destination for global capital [11][17]

Core Insights - The "Trump Shock" appears to have ended, with the market signaling a stabilization in the aftermath of Trump's return to the White House, despite recent political setbacks [1][2] - The dollar has regained strength, benefiting from its safe-haven status and inflows due to rising bond yields, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2][3] Tariff Impact - Tariff levels remain high, but the anticipated negative impact on the economy has not materialized as expected, with many countries opting for appeasement rather than retaliation [3][4] - Tariff revenues have significantly increased, reaching $30 billion in October from just $5 billion at the beginning of the year, alleviating deficit concerns and suggesting a degree of permanence to the tariffs [3][4] - Companies are finding ways to mitigate the impact of tariffs, with actual tariff rates fluctuating significantly, dropping from a peak of 27.4% to 15.9% [4][5] Artificial Intelligence Boom - The AI boom is helping to absorb the impacts of the "Trump Shock," attracting significant investment into the U.S. from global tech giants [6] - Major tech companies are ramping up capital expenditures, which is expected to stimulate economic growth and potentially lead to a GDP growth rate exceeding 5% by 2026 [6] Inflation and Federal Reserve - Inflation is gradually rising, currently at 3%, with tariffs contributing to price increases, particularly in imported goods [7][9] - The government’s push to maintain a robust economy and pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates could exacerbate inflation risks [7][10] - The market sentiment suggests that while inflation is a concern, the immediate impact of the "Trump Shock" on prices may not yet be fully realized [10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with tech stocks leading the drop, while the A-share market showed resilience, indicating a shift in global capital flows and challenging the belief in the perpetual rise of U.S. stocks [1][3][10] Group 1: U.S. Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's late-night comments aimed to reassure the market about U.S.-China relations, but investors remained skeptical, leading to a drop in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [3][5] - Nvidia, a key player in the AI sector, saw its stock price fall by 4%, highlighting the vulnerability of the U.S. stock market, which has been heavily reliant on inflated AI valuations [3][8] - The current situation mirrors the pre-burst of the 2000 internet bubble, where excessive investment in virtual concepts has drained resources from the real economy [3][8] Group 2: A-share Market Resilience - Despite the turmoil in the U.S. market, the A-share market demonstrated a strong recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding after an initial drop, and the Chinese yuan also strengthening [5][10] - The shift in capital flows suggests that global investors are reassessing the risks associated with U.S. assets, particularly in light of recent geopolitical developments [6][10] - Comparatively, the price-to-earnings ratio of Nvidia is 70, while China's leading company CATL stands at just over 20, indicating a more attractive valuation in the A-share market [8] Group 3: Global Capital Trends - The ongoing inversion of U.S. and Chinese bond yields, with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields at 4.5% compared to China's 2.8%, has led to increased international interest in Chinese bonds due to their perceived stability [8] - The total market capitalization of global equities reached $148 trillion last year, with the U.S. tech giants contributing over half of the gains, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth [8][10] - The recent market movements challenge the notion of "American exceptionalism," suggesting that capital will always flow towards undervalued assets, such as those in the A-share market [10]

Core Viewpoint - The global stock markets have outperformed the US stock market since Trump's election, contrary to initial investor expectations that his policies would negatively impact international equities [1][5]. Group 1: Performance of Global Markets - Since Trump's election, major stock indices in China, Europe, and Canada have outperformed the S&P 500 index [1]. - The MSCI index for global markets excluding the US has shown the largest outperformance against US stocks since 2009 [1]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea has surged by 55% over the past year, making it the best-performing index among major economies [6]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Investors initially injected funds into global markets to hedge against volatility caused by Trump's tariff policies, later seeking lower-valued alternatives to the high-valuation tech stocks dominating the S&P 500 [5]. - The weakening US dollar has made returns from international markets more attractive when measured in dollars [5]. - Some strategists, including those from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, had previously advised investors to look beyond the US market [5]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Despite strong corporate earnings, there are concerns about high valuations in the US stock market, with many executives predicting potential significant sell-offs in the near future [8][11]. - International markets still have lower valuations compared to US markets, which could allow for continued strong performance, particularly in Asian markets [12]. Group 4: Regional Economic Developments - European economic indicators are improving, with inflation under control and the European Central Bank lowering interest rates to 2%, which is significantly lower than US rates [12]. - Germany's stimulus plans are expected to accelerate growth in Europe, potentially narrowing the growth gap with the US [13]. - The Canadian stock market has seen a strong rise of 23% since Trump's election, with expectations of outperforming the US market for the first time since 2010 [14]. Group 5: Emerging Markets - Emerging markets have risen approximately 30% this year, with Brazil's stock market increasing by 44% in dollar terms, driven by expectations of declining global and local interest rates [18]. - Companies have quickly adapted to tariffs by relocating production, which has positively impacted their stock performance [18].

Core Viewpoint - Despite concerns over budget deficits and the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the U.S. government debt market has solidified its position as the most trusted sovereign debt asset globally, with significant inflows from investors driving a rebound in U.S. Treasury bonds in the second half of the year [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market, valued at $30 trillion, has seen investment returns of approximately 6% this year, heading towards its best performance since 2020 [2]. - The demand for U.S. Treasuries has surged despite previous bearish sentiments, attributed to controlled inflation under high interest rates and a shift towards short-term bonds by the Treasury [5][14]. - The "cleanest dirty shirt" analogy is used to describe the U.S. as a relatively better investment choice compared to other developed nations facing similar fiscal challenges [5][20]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts have contributed to lower borrowing costs and increased returns on U.S. debt, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to around 4% [6][25]. - Concerns about a potential recession due to trade wars have led to a flight to safety, with investors flocking to U.S. Treasuries [7][8]. - The U.S. Treasury's increased revenue from tariffs and a focus on reducing budget deficits have also played a role in the attractiveness of U.S. debt [5][19]. Group 3: Global Comparisons - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased significantly compared to other G7 countries, where long-term borrowing costs have risen due to fiscal concerns [21][25]. - The U.S. remains the largest and most liquid fixed-income market globally, making it a preferred choice for foreign investors despite ongoing economic uncertainties [5][20][28]. - The overall environment in the U.S. market, while chaotic, still presents competitive opportunities for investors compared to other industrialized economies [20].

Core Insights - The current international market presents significant investment opportunities due to a notable discount compared to US markets and improving earnings growth expectations [5][6][7] Investment Diversification - The average US investor holds approximately 8-9% of their portfolio in non-US stocks, while academic research suggests a target allocation of around 30% [3][4] - The increasing concentration in US equities has led to a growing interest in diversifying into international markets [2] Market Performance - International markets are currently trading at a 32% discount to US markets, which is significantly higher than the long-term average discount of 14% [6] - Earnings growth expectations for international markets, such as MSCI Europe, have risen from 7.5% to 11.5% over the year, while US earnings growth expectations have decreased from 14% to 13% [7] Growth Drivers - The growth in international markets is attributed to improving fundamentals and corporate governance reforms, particularly in regions like Europe and Japan [10][13] - Germany is implementing major fiscal reforms to stimulate economic growth, indicating proactive government measures [11] Opportunities in Specific Markets - There are emerging high-quality investment opportunities in international markets that were previously overlooked, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [9] - Japan is experiencing improvements in corporate governance, which may enhance investment attractiveness, while Korea is also making strides in focusing on shareholder value [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The current investment landscape is challenging due to anticipated interest rate cuts by central banks, high government debt levels, narrow credit spreads, and elevated stock valuations, leading to a complex decision-making environment for investors [2][11]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. government debt has reached $38 trillion, diminishing the appeal of sovereign bonds as a safe haven [1][2]. - Credit spreads are at a 20-year low, providing insufficient risk compensation for corporate bonds [2]. - The CAPE ratio for stocks is at a high of 40, indicating significant potential for market corrections [1][2]. Group 2: Fund Flows - There has been a substantial outflow from cash assets, totaling $24.6 billion, with $28.1 billion flowing into the stock market, particularly technology stocks which saw a record inflow of $10.4 billion in one week [3][5]. - The gold market has also experienced a surge, with a cumulative inflow of $34.2 billion over the past 10 weeks, marking a historical high [5]. - The Chinese stock market recorded its largest weekly inflow since April 2025, amounting to $13.4 billion, reflecting a strong risk appetite among investors [8]. Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The global stock market capitalization has increased by $20.8 trillion this year, driven by a wave of liquidity from the global interest rate cuts [10]. - There are emerging risks in the market, with potential impacts on the wealthy class if asset prices decline, leading to economic deterioration [11]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The strategy proposed by Hartnett includes maintaining a long position in long-term U.S. Treasuries, with expectations that the 30-year Treasury yield will fall below 4% [13]. - Hartnett is optimistic about international markets, predicting the Hang Seng Index will rise above 33,000 points, and expects a 9% growth in global EPS over the next 12 months [15]. - For gold, Hartnett maintains a bullish outlook, forecasting prices could exceed $6,000 per ounce by spring next year, despite current high positioning among fund managers [17][19].

Core Insights - Foreign investment institutions are reassessing the Chinese market with unprecedented attention amid significant changes in global asset allocation [1][2] - The "American exceptionalism" investment logic is facing challenges, leading to a strategic shift towards other markets, particularly China [2][3] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide a clear blueprint for China's economic development, highlighting various investment opportunities [1][8] Group 1: Shift in Investment Paradigms - The decline of "American exceptionalism" is becoming a key narrative in the global asset management industry, as investors express concerns over high valuations and policy uncertainties in the U.S. [2][3] - Global investors are increasingly hedging against U.S. assets and considering reallocating funds to other markets, reflecting a strategic adjustment [2][3] Group 2: China's Market Resilience - China's capital markets have shown strong resilience following a policy shift in September 2024, leading to a significant rebound in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][3] - The issuance of stocks and convertible bonds in Hong Kong increased from $23 billion in 2023 to $35 billion in 2024, and reached $76 billion in 2025, indicating a robust market environment [3] Group 3: Long-term Strategic Investments - Foreign investments in China are based on long-term strategic judgments rather than short-term speculation, with European investors maintaining confidence despite previous challenges [3][4] - The active participation of foreign institutions in China's IPO market reflects a renewed confidence in the long-term potential of Chinese assets [4] Group 4: Fundamental Changes in the Market - The current market rebound is viewed as a transition from a liquidity-driven bull market to one supported by fundamental changes, including improved corporate earnings [5][7] - Institutional reforms in China, such as stricter regulations and enhanced market norms, are seen as crucial for sustainable market development [5][7] Group 5: Investment Opportunities in the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to outline four major investment tracks, including technology, supply chain security, globalization of Chinese enterprises, and consumption upgrades [8][9] - The plan emphasizes the importance of investing in AI and technology to maintain competitive advantages in the global market [8][9] Group 6: Globalization and Profitability of Chinese Enterprises - Chinese companies are achieving higher profit margins overseas, with gross margins 10%-15% higher than those domestically, indicating significant potential for returns [6][9] - The increasing recognition of Chinese brands in international markets reflects a growing trend of globalization among Chinese enterprises [6][9]