#图表 #报告 摩根大通资管探讨“美国例外论”：美国市场与非美发达市场差距缩小，美国和EAFE的相互强势周期的轮换时间变短；观察日本是否为东山再起做好准备。 https://t.co/FL4pTBdBpjNone (@None):None ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous research iteration to approach the truth, highlighting that growth comes from persistent denial and reconstruction [2][26]. Group 1: Research Framework and Goals - The team is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade in 2025, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research outcomes [2]. - The guiding principle is to provide valuable independent research results that are grounded in reality and actionable [2]. Group 2: Economic Insights - The article discusses the shift in the economic "three drivers" from manufacturing to services, indicating that as GDP per capita reaches $10,000 to $30,000 and urbanization hits 70%, service sector demand will accelerate [28]. - It notes that new consumption policies emphasize long-term strategies for domestic demand expansion rather than short-term stimuli, while also providing support for manufacturing to counter tariff impacts [29]. - The concept of "anti-involution" is presented as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, with increased government and industry focus, broader coverage, and stronger coordination among policies and market mechanisms [31]. Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The article highlights that the biggest expectation gap in the global macroeconomic landscape for the first half of 2025 is the disproof of the "American exceptionalism" narrative [21]. - It mentions that the focus of tariffs may shift towards validating economic data, with potential concerns about recession if the U.S. unemployment rate rises to 4.6% [21]. - The impact of geopolitical risks, particularly since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is noted as a significant factor in global macroeconomic conditions and asset pricing [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous research iteration to approach the truth, highlighting that growth comes from persistent denial and reconstruction in research [2][26]. Group 1: Research Framework and Goals - The team is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade in 2025, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research outcomes [2]. - The guiding principle is to provide valuable independent research results that are grounded in reality and actionable [2]. Group 2: Economic Insights - The article discusses the shift in the economic "three drivers" from manufacturing to services, indicating that as GDP per capita reaches $10,000 to $30,000 and urbanization hits 70%, service sector demand will accelerate [28]. - It notes that new consumption policies emphasize long-term strategies for domestic demand expansion rather than short-term stimuli, while also providing support for manufacturing to counter tariff impacts [29]. Group 3: Structural Reforms - The concept of "anti-involution" is presented as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, which is gaining more attention from both the government and industry, with a broader scope and stronger coordination [31].

致投资者 研究是在持续迭代的过程中不断逼近真相，是一项"久久为功"的工作，只有永不停步的否定 与重构，才能不断成长。作为研究型团队，我们始终坚守初心，坚持研究为本、求真务实、勤勉 服务、敬畏市场。 2025年是团队全面升级的一年，在新的征程中，我们推进了研究框架的体系重构、研究成果 的系统展示，秉持"研之有理、落地有声"的理念，致力于提供真正有价值的独立研究成果。 感谢您一直以来的支持与信任，让我们共同进步，共创未来！ 赵伟 敬上 2025.8.16 赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 经济学博士，同时担任中国证券业协会首席经济学家委员会委员、中国首席经济学家论坛理事等社会职务。2023 年7月6日，应邀参加李强总理经济形势座谈会。 曾获沪上金融家"金融行业创新人物"、服务经济高质量发展最佳首席经济学家等称号；曾获新财富最佳分析师、 水晶球最佳分析师、金牛奖最具价值首席分析师等行业奖项。 代表作《转型之机》、《蜕变·新生》等，系统阐释了中国经济转型阶段的特征与机遇，为理论研究与实务操作 提供重要支持。 申万宏源宏观首席分析师 复旦大学经济学博士、曼彻斯特大学访问学者，曾任国金证券宏观首席分析师、东方证券财富管理总 ...

□ 美联储重启降息将从利率和经济基本面角度对美股形成提振作用，但估值偏高仍然是当前投资美股难 以回避的问题。相对而言，非美市场股票估值更具有吸引力。因此，为了规避潜在风险，全球资金在美 元资产和非美资产之间的再平衡趋势有望延续。历史经验也显示，在美元下行阶段，新兴市场的表现通 常优于发达市场，相对收益会显著提升 □ 从中国资产来看，港股有望继续受益于全球流动性转向和内地盈利拐点的双重催化。同时，当前A股 估值仍具有洼地效应，估值修复动能将与全球资产再配置需求形成共振，其中科技股有望继续受益，其 因具备高成长弹性及对流动性高度敏感，更容易吸引寻求高回报的全球资本 □ 美联储重启降息带动实际利率下行，将推动黄金期货持仓规模上升，令金价有望获得支撑。与此同 时，美元信用风险的上升，可能进一步推动全球央行储备资产再平衡 □ 与此同时，也要清醒地认识到，美联储降息周期中伴随的政策不确定性、美国经济与通胀走势反复， 以及地缘与贸易关系波动等风险仍可能通过情绪、资金流动等渠道产生外溢效应。对此，投资者应保持 战略布局思维，兼顾结构性机会与风险防范，稳健参与全球资产配置再平衡进程 美联储于当地时间9月17日结束为期两天的货币 ...

今年以来全球主要资产价格表现 资料来源：彭博，中银证券 美联储于当地时间9月17日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间从4.25%至 4.5%下调到4.0%至4.25%，降幅为25个基点，此举符合市场普遍预期。此次降息是美联储自去年9月开 启本轮降息周期，并先后于去年9月、11月和12月连续3次降息，以及从今年1月至7月，连续5次按兵不 动后，首次重启降息。 全球投资购金和央行购金量及伦敦金价走势 资料来源：世界黄金协会，伦敦金融交易所，中银证券 □ 由于美元在当前国际货币体系中占据主导地位，美联储一旦重启降息，其利率和汇率的变动将会同时 影响全球资金流动状况 □ 美联储重启降息将从利率和经济基本面角度对美股形成提振作用，但估值偏高仍然是当前投资美股难 以回避的问题。相对而言，非美市场股票估值更具有吸引力。因此，为了规避潜在风险，全球资金在美 元资产和非美资产之间的再平衡趋势有望延续。历史经验也显示，在美元下行阶段，新兴市场的表现通 常优于发达市场，相对收益会显著提升 □ 从中国资产来看，港股有望继续受益于全球流动性转向和内地盈利拐点的双重催化。同时，当前A股 估值仍具有洼地效应，估值修复动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts is expected to catalyze a global asset reallocation, impacting both U.S. and non-U.S. markets, with emerging markets likely to outperform developed markets during this period [4][5][15]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.0%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since the current cycle began in September of the previous year [4][11]. - The rate cut is anticipated to boost U.S. stock markets, although high valuations present a challenge for investors [15]. - Historical trends indicate that during periods of dollar depreciation, emerging markets typically perform better than developed markets, suggesting a potential for significant relative returns [4][15]. Group 2: Global Asset Reallocation - The trend of reallocating global assets has accelerated, with non-U.S. assets showing particularly strong performance; the MSCI Global (excluding the U.S.) index has risen by 22.7% this year, compared to a 12.5% increase in the MSCI U.S. index [7][15]. - Chinese assets, particularly Hong Kong stocks, are expected to benefit from global liquidity shifts and a potential turning point in mainland earnings [4][15]. - The A-share market is seen as having a valuation recovery potential, especially in technology stocks, which are sensitive to liquidity and attractive to global capital seeking high returns [4][15]. Group 3: Gold and Currency Dynamics - The restart of rate cuts is likely to lead to a decline in real interest rates, which may increase gold futures holdings and support gold prices [4][16]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, with global central bank gold buying exceeding 1,000 tons annually since 2022, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences [9][16]. - The dollar's dominance is under scrutiny, with a potential long-term decline in its value as political pressures on the Federal Reserve increase, impacting its international credibility [13][14]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Investor sentiment is shifting, with a notable increase in concerns about inflation risks, which could destabilize market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [19][20]. - The current economic policies and pressures on the Federal Reserve may lead to a loss of independence, further exacerbating the dollar's decline and affecting global capital flows [12][13]. - The potential for external shocks and geopolitical uncertainties remains a concern, necessitating a strategic approach to asset allocation amidst these dynamics [20].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is currently in a bearish trend, with expectations of further depreciation despite a recent stabilization after a record drop earlier this year [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Performance and Market Sentiment - The dollar index fell approximately 11% over the six months ending in June, marking one of its largest historical declines [1]. - Speculators' net short positions on the dollar reached $5.7 billion, significantly down from $21 billion at the end of June but still at historically high levels [1][2]. - Many investors believe the recent sell-off of the dollar is merely a pause rather than a reversal of trend, driven by concerns over persistent fiscal and trade deficits, a weak job market, and reassessment of currency hedging strategies [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing the Dollar - Weak employment data provides the Federal Reserve with room for aggressive rate cuts, which could diminish the dollar's interest rate advantage [2]. - The ongoing reassessment of the "American exceptionalism" narrative and concerns over trade protectionism under the Trump administration contribute to the bearish outlook on the dollar [2][6]. Group 3: Foreign Investment and Hedging Strategies - Global investors have high exposure to US assets, and any reduction in this exposure could exert downward pressure on the dollar [6]. - The recent underperformance of the dollar has prompted asset management companies to increase hedging operations, which typically involve selling dollars through forward contracts or swaps, thereby increasing dollar supply [6][7]. - The potential for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is expected to enhance the appeal of currency hedging for foreign investors [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Valuation - Experts predict that the dollar is unlikely to receive support from the Trump administration, as its "America First" agenda conflicts with the goal of a strong dollar [7]. - Many analysts believe the dollar remains overvalued relative to several currencies, which may deter potential buyers in the forex market [8]. - Despite the dollar's significant decline this year, there is still a possibility for it to find support, particularly if the US economic outlook unexpectedly improves [8].

Core Viewpoint - Recent attempts by major economies in Europe and Japan to maintain fiscal discipline have failed, leading to a decline in international capital confidence towards these regions, particularly due to unfavorable trade negotiations with the U.S. [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions in Europe and Japan - The yield on France's 30-year government bonds rose from 4.16% on August 1 to 4.45% on September 1, with a widening gap of 10 basis points compared to 10-year bonds, primarily due to the government's controversial fiscal measures [2] - The yield on the UK's 30-year bonds increased from 5.35% to 5.64% in the same period, with a widening gap of 9 basis points, driven by economic slowdown and internal pressures on the Labour Party [2] - Japan's 30-year bond yield rose from 3.11% to 3.23%, with a 6 basis point widening, influenced by political instability following the ruling coalition's failure in the Senate elections [2] Group 2: U.S. Economic Dynamics - U.S. long-term bond yields are influenced by different factors compared to Europe and Japan, including concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and recent weak employment data [3] - The U.S. economy is transitioning to an investment-driven model, with private non-residential investment contributing significantly to GDP growth, indicating a shift in economic momentum [7] - The employment impact of investment is lower than that of consumption, suggesting potential structural changes in employment data as the economy evolves [8] Group 3: Trade Negotiations and International Capital - Unfavorable outcomes from trade negotiations have weakened international capital confidence in Europe and Japan, with the U.S. gaining a more advantageous position [5][6] - The U.S. has successfully negotiated significant investment commitments from major economies, reducing trade policy uncertainty and enhancing its economic outlook [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain resilience, supported by increased capital expenditures and foreign investment commitments, while the dollar and Nasdaq are projected to perform well [11] - The Chinese yuan may appreciate against the dollar, with both currencies potentially experiencing a "dual bull" scenario as the yuan returns to a neutral position [11]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the dominance of the US dollar in the global economy, highlighting its role in shaping wealth, borrowing costs, and economic stability in the US [1][2][3] - The concept of "American exceptionalism" is discussed as a double-edged sword, granting the US significant power while also leading to potential overreach and mismanagement of its economic privileges [6][13] - Historical examples of reserve currencies, such as the Dutch Guilder, illustrate the risks associated with over-leveraging and the eventual decline of once-dominant currencies [15][28] Group 2 - The article identifies five current trends indicating a shift in the global economic landscape, including excessive national debt, rising wealth inequality, and a move towards protectionist policies [38][42][45] - It notes that the international order is transitioning from cooperative multilateralism to confrontational unilateralism, with an increased use of financial and military power [50] - The potential for significant changes in the next 5-10 years is highlighted, suggesting that understanding these fundamental shifts is crucial for risk management and investment strategies [51][52]