作为一个移民大国，美国持续吸引来自全球各地的移民，在2023年曾创下近600万人的入境移民峰值。 但到2025年，这一数字暴跌至260万到270万。与此同时，美国国土安全部发布的数据显示，美国2025年 遣返了67.5万人，另有约220万人选择"自愿离境"。 美国顶级智库布鲁金斯学会的计算显示，美国在2025年人口净流出约15万人，由于美国官方统计数据尚 未完全覆盖所有离境人口，实际数字可能与估算存在一定出入。布鲁金斯学会分析师表示，预计在2026 年，美国人口外流的趋势将进一步扩大。 布鲁金斯学会的计算显示，美国2025年出现迁出人口超过迁入人口的现象 《华尔街日报》也指出，在几乎所有欧盟成员国中，定居和工作的美国人数量都创下历史新高，并保持 增长。例如，官方数据显示，疫情后居住在葡萄牙的美国人总数增长超过500%，仅2024年一年就增加 了36%；在西班牙和荷兰，定居的美国人数量在过去10年里接近翻倍。 综合其他方面的数据来看，这种趋势并非暂时性的，反而更具长期性。报道提到，美国政府已积压了数 月的公民放弃国籍申请，不少人希望借此取得外国护照，或规避对其海外收入征税。美国移民事务机构 表示，2024年此类 ...

随着美国总统特朗普推出全新关税计划，市场对美国政策不确定性及该国核心资产吸引力的担忧重燃，美元与美国股指期货同步走低。 美元指数下跌0.3%，延续上周五跌势，因日本与中国休假，市场交投清淡。在美国最高法院裁定特朗普对等关税政策违法后，特朗普宣布对全球商品征收 15%关税，瑞郎、日元与欧元兑美元领涨。 标普500指数期货一度下跌0.8%，而亚洲股市指数则上涨1%。 全球首席投资官办公室（Global CIO Office）首席执行官加里・杜根（Gary Dugan）表示："亚洲市场的即时缓解在于，美国最高法院对关税实施范围设定了 一定限制。贸易政策尾部风险的降低，可能加速亚洲在国内增长强劲、政策框架更稳定及区域贸易一体化深化方面的结构性优势。" 彭博策略师策略师加菲尔德・雷诺兹（Garfield Reynolds）称，全球贸易不确定性重回投资者视野，这对美国资产而言是坏消息。美元今早的跌势有可能延 续。 交易员正密切关注各国领导人对最新关税进展的回应，以寻找下一步市场押注的线索。 欧盟贸易负责人表示，将提议暂停批准与美国达成的协议；印度则推迟了敲定临时贸易协定的谈判。上周五法院裁决后，中国、印度与巴西等国对美出 ...

在美银首席策略师Michael Hartnett看来，2026年的市场逻辑已发生根本性位移：AI概念内部正在剧烈分化，资金流向正从美国溢出至日韩。 面对地缘政治的迷雾与高位震荡的美股，Hartnett认为，投资者应当短期"交易石油"，中期"持有黄金"；而美股若想打破当前"极度看涨却又滞 涨"的僵局，急需中东油价崩盘或中美贸易缓和这两大"外部冲击"来破局。 市场风格剧变？ 在美银（BofA）首席策略师Michael Hartnett看来，2026年的市场逻辑已与前两年截然不同。 如果说2024年和2025年是"AI领跑者"的独角戏，那么2026年的市场风格可能会发生剧变。Hartnett认为，市场正在抛弃那些资本开支巨大的"支出 者"，转而拥抱基础设施的"建设者"： 市场正在抛弃那些资本开支巨大的"支出者"（如科技七巨头Mag7），转而拥抱基础设施的"建设者"（如半导体与原材料）；资金也在 从"被颠覆者"（软件股）撤离，流向AI技术的"应用者"（银行股）。 当然，剧烈的板块轮动也会带来风险。当前，科技、电信和金融板块合计占据标普500指数56%的权重，一旦领跌股的市值蒸发速度超过领涨股的 拉升速度，大盘将面临崩 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's tariffs has led to a strong rally in emerging market assets, with a benchmark index for emerging market currencies reversing weekly losses and an emerging market ETF reaching a historical high [1][5] - Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, emphasizes that emerging markets are likely to outperform the U.S. market amid the decline of "American exceptionalism" and a shift in global growth focus [1][7] - The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF has seen a rare "ten consecutive days of gains," reaching a historical peak, with trading volume significantly above its 20-day average [1][4] Group 2 - The strong performance of key stocks like TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix has contributed to the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF's rise, which has increased by 14% in 2026, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 [4] - The ongoing global AI boom and the "sell America" narrative have positioned the Korean stock market as one of the best-performing markets globally, with a 40% increase in its benchmark index this year [4][8] - The Supreme Court's tariff decision is seen as a catalyst for emerging market currencies, highlighting significant uncertainty in U.S. government policies and driving diversification trends [5][8] Group 3 - Recent U.S. economic data indicates weakness, with GDP growth falling short of expectations and inflation measures exceeding forecasts, creating mixed signals for the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook [6] - Despite geopolitical tensions, most Wall Street strategists believe that these will not escalate into a full-scale war, allowing emerging markets to maintain their strong upward momentum [6][7] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policies and high valuations in the U.S. market are prompting large investors to seek diversification in emerging markets, which are seen as more attractive in terms of valuation and growth expectations [8]

美国银行的迈克尔·哈特内特表示，美国股票相对于国际同行的受青睐程度为五年来最低。这位策略师 写道，今年迄今为止，全球股票基金每流入100美元资金，仅有26美元流向美国股票。这是自2020年以 来的最低比例，而2022年的峰值曾达到92美元。哈特内特表示，这些数据表明，所谓美国例外论或持续 优异表现的主题正在结束，流入该国资产的相对数量减少，而不是资金的直接流出。2026年标普500指 数基本持平，而剔除美国股票的MSCI世界指数则预计将上涨近8%。投资者对美国股票的兴趣有所下 降，原因包括担心大型科技公司在人工智能领域投入过多资金、特朗普政府政策导致美元走弱 ，以及 他们越来越倾向于投资那些受益于经济增长的周期性股票。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

美国股市相对于全球其他主要市场的吸引力，正跌至五年多来的低点。 智通财经APP获悉，据美国银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett表示，今年以来，流入全球股票型基金的资金 中，每100美元仅有26美元配置至美股，这是自2020年以来的最低占比，也显著低于2022年高达92美元的峰值 水平。 Hartnett指出，这一资金流向变化表明，市场长期热议的"美国例外论"，即美国资产持续跑赢全球，正在走向尾 声。不过，与其说资金正在大规模撤离美国资产，不如说是相对配置意愿明显下降。 从市场表现来看，美国股市今年明显落后于海外市场。2026年以来，标普500指数几乎持平，而剔除美国的 MSCI世界指数同期涨幅接近8%。投资者对美股兴趣降温，主要源于多重担忧，包括大型科技公司在人工智能 领域投入过度、特朗普政府政策推动下美元走弱，以及在全球经济增长预期改善背景下，资金更偏好周期性股 票。 资金流向数据也印证了这一趋势。美国银行援引EPFR Global的数据称，今年以来，欧洲、日本及其他发达国际 市场股票基金合计吸引约1250亿美元资金流入，而美股相关基金仅录得约350亿美元。 Hartnett此前还指出，美国的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The data released on Wednesday indicates a significant increase in foreign purchases of U.S. financial assets in 2025, countering the narrative of "selling America" that has been prevalent among market participants [1] Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - In 2025, foreign investors net purchased $1.55 trillion of U.S. long-term financial assets, up from $1.18 trillion the previous year, with $442.7 billion flowing into U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Despite concerns over U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions, foreign investors bought more U.S. stocks in 2025, with net purchases reaching $720.1 billion, a 134% increase from $307.5 billion in 2024 [3] - Norway emerged as the largest buyer of U.S. stocks in 2025, net purchasing $81.8 billion, nearly three times its 2024 total, followed by Singapore with $79 billion and South Korea with $73.6 billion [4] Group 2: Regional Investment Insights - European investors accounted for a net inflow of $872.8 billion in long-term financial assets, with the Cayman Islands and Japan also showing significant net purchases of $277.2 billion and $56 billion, respectively [2] - Canada transitioned from being a major seller of U.S. stocks in 2024 to a buyer in 2025, net purchasing $10.6 billion despite trade policy concerns [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Policy - The narrative of "selling America" has been challenged by the continued strong demand for U.S. technology stocks, with investors leveraging opportunities presented by the valuation adjustments of the dollar [2][3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen has consistently refuted the "selling America" claims, asserting that government economic policies enhance the U.S.'s status as a preferred destination for global capital [1]

谈及英镑时，Marinov表示英国经济对英国央行即将落地的宽松政策的反应将比欧元区对欧洲央行宽松 政策的反应更为积极，当前英国经济增长预测存在一定超预期上行空间，因此对英镑的看法偏向建设 性。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 法国农业信贷银行外汇策略主管Valentin Marinov表示，本周将公布的美国财政部数据或可印证，近期 关于资金快速转向美元外多元配置的市场猜测存在夸大成分。 "如果数据继续显示对长期美元资产仍有相当强劲的需求，我不会感到意外。" Marinov称，相关流入美 国的长期资金流向数据将于周三正式公布。他对各国央行短期内大幅削减美元配置的可能性持怀疑立 场，同时提到"美国例外论当然已经今时不同往日，但依然完好，仍对美元形成支撑"。 Marinov指出，在日本政府拿下众议院压倒性多数席位后，日元具备走强空间。随着日本投资者启动资 金回流国内的进程，欧元相比美元将更易受到这类资金流动的冲击。他提到，今年日本投资者将开启大 规模资金回流，从欧洲撤出资金回流本土的操作便利性高于美国市场，因此对欧元兑日元的看空程度高 于美元兑日 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for January recorded at 52.6, significantly higher than the previous value of 47.9, indicating a shift into the expansion zone [1] - The surge in the new orders index suggests a proactive inventory replenishment by businesses, indicating a solid demand for future production [3] - The stability in the prices index, despite the recovery in demand, presents a favorable scenario for the Federal Reserve, as it indicates economic growth without immediate inflationary pressures [3] Group 2: Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board's consumer confidence index plummeted to 84.5, the lowest level since May 2014, signaling a significant psychological alarm despite the manufacturing sector's strength [6] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed a slight rebound to 57.3, but this reflects more on the wealth effect from rising stock markets rather than the broader middle-class sentiment [8] - The key "expectations index" fell to 65.1, historically indicating a potential recession when below 80, highlighting consumer pessimism despite stable unemployment rates [11] Group 3: Economic Implications - Consumer spending, which constitutes 70% of the US GDP, is at risk if low confidence translates into reduced retail sales, potentially undermining the manufacturing recovery [13] - The upcoming retail sales data is critical, as a validation of the confidence index's decline could lead to a rapid loss of the dollar's growth premium [13] - The labor market data, particularly the non-farm payroll (NFP) report, is delayed, creating uncertainty in market expectations regarding employment and economic health [14] Group 4: Labor Market Dynamics - The consensus expectation for January's NFP is a weak 70,000 jobs, significantly below the 150,000 to 200,000 needed to maintain labor market balance, raising concerns about potential downward revisions of previous employment data [14][15] - The JOLTS data indicates a sharp decline in job openings to 6.54 million, the lowest in over five years, suggesting a cooling demand in the labor market [17] - If the NFP data confirms the downward trend in job openings, it could lead to a significant reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and negatively impact the dollar [17][21] Group 5: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's current stance of maintaining higher interest rates is under pressure from political and economic uncertainties, potentially leading to a more cautious approach to rate cuts [18][21] - The market is pricing in a potential shift in monetary policy, with the probability of a rate cut in March being closely monitored [20][21] - The dual pressures of political noise and economic data deterioration could challenge the Fed's resolve to keep rates high, impacting the dollar's strength [22]

Core Viewpoint - The current performance of the US dollar and the pressure in the US financial markets are significantly correlated with President Trump's approval ratings, which have both declined by approximately 10% since he took office [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Theoretically, a weaker dollar should boost manufacturing in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, enhancing economic vitality. However, Trump's approval ratings and the dollar index have shown a "highly positive correlation" during his presidency [3]. - The recent market logic indicates a reassessment of the "Trump policy premium," with expectations of aggressive tax cuts and fiscal expansion post-2024 elections driving a strong dollar and elevated stock values [4]. - The market is currently experiencing a painful adjustment phase characterized by "peak positions and peak policies," with political support being a direct measure of market confidence [5][6]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Capital Flows - Investors are closely monitoring how the Trump administration balances strong dollar policies with tariffs and industrial revitalization plans, making political approval ratings a key indicator of market sentiment [5]. - A shift in market sentiment is occurring, with a transition towards "longing the real economy and shorting Wall Street assets," indicating that financial market confidence in the "American exceptionalism" narrative may rebound only when policy directions effectively enhance public support [5]. - Recent fund flows show significant movements, with $87.2 billion flowing into one-year market funds, $34.6 billion into equity funds, and $23 billion into bond funds, while gold and cryptocurrency funds experienced outflows [7][8]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - In terms of sector performance, technology funds saw inflows of $6 billion, while energy funds attracted $4.2 billion, contrasting with significant outflows from utility funds [8]. - The report highlights key technical support levels for "bubble assets," including technology ETFs at $133, Bitcoin at $58,000, and gold at $4,550 per ounce, suggesting potential stabilization points for these assets [6].