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国际贸易与投资体系再平衡
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进出口银行原董事长胡晓炼:美国制造业回流难度很大|快讯
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-05-17 14:19
Core Viewpoint - The current most significant event affecting international trade and investment is the tariff issue, particularly the tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration, which have shocked the world [2] Group 1: International Trade and Investment Dynamics - The competitiveness of the U.S. in general processing and labor-intensive manufacturing is not strong enough, making it difficult for manufacturing to return to the U.S. as desired by the Trump administration [2] - Due to policy uncertainties, manufacturing companies are more inclined to seek locations with lower costs and tariffs, which are often found in global South countries and emerging markets [2] - The current situation indicates three "rebalancing" trends in the international trade and investment system: cost-effectiveness rebalancing, global trade rebalancing leading to profound adjustments in major economies' internal structures, and currency rebalancing towards a more diverse and inclusive global monetary system [2] Group 2: Changes in the International Monetary System - The dominance of the U.S. dollar faces challenges, including the weaponization of currency and the "Triffin dilemma," which necessitates changes in the international monetary system [3] - Changes in the international monetary system may advance in three directions: the inclusion of more currencies in the international monetary system, increased focus on cryptocurrencies for cross-border trade and investment, and potential enhancement of the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) functionality [3]