海外政策周报 解读美国商务部 50%关联方规则 "严格而简单"的美国出口管制策略逐步落地 核心结论 摘要内容 2025 年 9 月 29 日，美国商务部工业与安全局（BIS）发布"关联方规则" （Affiliates Rule），正式确立 50%持股原则，标志美国出口管制体系进入更 为"严格而简单"的阶段。新规将清单适用范围扩大至境外附属企业，对高 科技产业（特别是半导体、航空航天、人工智能等）构成深远影响。BIS 采 取严格责任原则，金融投资者亦需自查合规；同时对部分盟国企业发布 60 天临时通用许可（TGL），以缓和短期冲击。此举与白宫预算案中大幅提升 出口管制执法经费相呼应，体现美国强化技术封锁、巩固产业主导权的政策 方向。 本周特朗普政府集中发布 13 项行政举措，覆盖外交、贸易、科技、能源等 领域。关键措施包括：对木制品进口加征最高 50%关税、利用 AI 推动儿童 癌症研究、批准阿拉斯加 Ambler Road 项目、宣布"全国制造业日"等，延 续"制造业回流"与"关税保护"的经济路线。 本周其他国际新闻： 风险提示： 地缘政治风险超预期。 分析师 张蕾 S0800525060001 131247 ...

前言 去超市买罐啤酒都比以前贵了，你知道这钱最后花在哪了吗？ 现在美国民主党彻底不藏着掖着了，把 "反关税、骂特朗普贸易战" 当成选举的大杀器，连制造业重镇 的州长都跑到老百姓跟前说，关税就是 "明着收老百姓的钱"。 更关键的是，现在三分之二的美国人终于搞明白了，原来关税一涨，自己买东西就得多掏钱，谁也不想 再为这事儿买单。这美国政坛的风向，说变就变，也太让人意外了！ 啤酒都涨了？ 说实在的，现在美国民主党说起反对关税的事儿，那真是一点不含糊，全是老百姓能听懂的大白话。 就说宾夕法尼亚州的州长夏皮罗，他专门跑到钢铁老区跟当地人聊天，拿大家常喝的啤酒当例子，一说 大家就懂了。 他说你们喝的罐装啤酒，那罐子是铝做的，现在铝加了关税，罐子成本上去了，啤酒能不涨价吗？不光 是罐子，连酿啤酒用的大钢罐也受影响，钢铁也加了关税，这成本一层层涨，最后不都得老百姓掏腰 包？ 你可别觉得这是小题大做，有民调数据在那摆着呢。 可美国人心里门儿清，大家过日子就图个实惠，就想要便宜东西，谁管那些虚头巴脑的大道理？以前还 总说全球化不好，现在大家才不管什么全球化，只要日子过得舒坦，买东西不贵，比啥都强。 十年变了天？ 你敢信吗？十年前 ...

李超/文 一、国内宏观经济：预计四季度经济增速进一步放缓 （一）GDP：预计四季度GDP增速或小幅放缓至4.7% 考虑政策逐步退坡，我们预计四季度经济增速小幅下行，全年增速前高后低，但实现5%左右的增长目 标难度不大，结构上生产端回落的压力小于需求端，量价两个维度或呈现阶段性背离。综合来看，9月 制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，较8月回升0.4个百分点，仍处于荣枯线水平下方，说明经济维 持较弱的修复态势。我们判断，后期经济基本面的不确定性或有所增加，特别是出口可能有所回落。我 们预计，全年可能呈现前高后低的走势，需要重点关注经济的波动，经济运行在内外部环境不确定性抬 升的过程中或呈现非线性波动的特征，供给和需求可能呈现K型分化走势。我们预计四季度GDP实际增 速有望达到4.7%左右，前期逆周期政策将渐次落地形成对基本面的托底作用，全年实现5%左右的GDP 增长目标难度较低。 从经济结构上看，预计四季度广义基建投资和制造业投资将保持较强的韧性，消费需求也有望平稳复 苏。具体而言，消费方面，预计Q4社零同比增速4%，主要受以旧换新政策边际效应减弱、餐饮与烟酒 类零售额承压、汽车价格战与行业结构调整等影响 ...

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgent need for energy to support its growth [1][2][3] - A specific company is highlighted as a key player in the AI energy sector, owning critical energy infrastructure assets that are essential for meeting the increasing energy demands of AI technologies [3][7] Investment Landscape - Wall Street is investing hundreds of billions into AI, but there is a pressing concern regarding the energy supply needed to sustain this growth [2] - AI data centers, which power large language models like ChatGPT, consume energy equivalent to that of small cities, indicating a significant strain on global power grids [2] Company Profile - The company in focus is not a chipmaker or cloud platform but is positioned as a crucial player in the energy sector, set to benefit from the rising demand for electricity driven by AI [3][6] - It owns significant nuclear energy infrastructure assets, making it integral to America's future power strategy [7] Financial Position - The company is noted for being completely debt-free and holding cash reserves that amount to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, providing a strong financial foundation [8] - It is trading at less than 7 times earnings, which is considered undervalued given its strategic position in the AI and energy markets [10] Market Trends - The company is poised to capitalize on the onshoring trend driven by tariffs, as well as the surge in U.S. LNG exports under the current administration's energy policies [5][14] - There is a growing recognition on Wall Street of this company's potential, as it quietly benefits from multiple market tailwinds without the high valuations typical of other energy firms [8][9] Future Outlook - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive continuous innovation and advancements, reinforcing the importance of investing in AI-related companies [12] - The overall sentiment is that investing in AI infrastructure is not just about financial returns but also about participating in a transformative technological revolution [15]

Artificial intelligence is the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. The time to invest in groundbreaking AI is now, and this stock is a steal! AI is eating the world—and the machines behind it are ravenous. Each ChatGPT query, each model update, each robotic breakthrough consumes massive amounts of energy. In fact, AI is already pushing global power grids to the brink. Wall Street is pouring hundreds of billions into artificial intelligence—training smarter chatbots, automating industries, and b ...

特朗普政府表示不计划对外国仿制药征收关税，这一决定涉及美国人每日用药量90%的进口仿制药。 10月8日，白宫和美国商务部的发言人均已确认，政府并未积极讨论在"232条款"国家安全调查框架下对 仿制药征收关税。 这项潜在的豁免意义重大，因为它将影响到占美国人处方药总量约90%的药品，包括抗生素、心脏病药 物等大量依赖进口的日常用药。此前支持豁免的官员担心，对仿制药征税将导致消费者面临价格上涨甚 至药品短缺。 虽然对仿制药征收关税的可能性降低，但特朗普政府并未放弃"制造业回流"的目标。据报道，美国政府 正在考虑是否应发布行政令，为关键仿制药的国内制造商提供联邦拨款或贷款。 这可能涉及使用来自日本等外国政府的资金，这些资金是与特朗普政府关税协议的一部分，尽管这些基 础设施资金尚未建立。 关税范围大幅收窄 将仿制药排除在关税清单外，标志着美国商务部对医药产品展开的"232条款"调查范围出现重大收缩。 特朗普上月在网上发布消息称将于10月1日对品牌药征收100%关税，但未提及仿制药。 然而，最新的政策方向表明，美国政府在如何利用关税工具重塑医药供应链方面采取了更为谨慎的态 度。 政府内部分歧明显 据报道援引知情人士透露 ...

2020年疫情一来，供应链问题雪上加霜。汽车行业因为芯片短缺停工，工厂闲置。1月15日中美签了第一阶段协议，中国承诺买更多美国农产品，暂停部分 关税上调。可执行起来磕磕绊绊，关税大部分还留着。拜登2021年上台，保留了这些措施，还加了芯片法案，投500亿美元建本土工厂。但问题没解决，依 赖还在。2024年特朗普又赢了，2025年1月20日就职，2月1日就签令对更多中国进口加10%关税，2月4日生效。智库报告警告，这种反复无常的政策让企业 不确定性增加，投资犹豫。 两大智库国际战略研究中心和外交关系协会最近联手发声，直指美国当前的贸易政策，尤其是那些层层加码的关税措施，正在把国家推向悬崖边上。要是不 赶紧刹车，美国的经济根基和全球影响力恐怕都要玩完。想想看，这些政策本来是为了保护国内产业，结果却搞得盟友离心，消费者钱包瘪了，企业日子难 过。报告里清清楚楚列出数据，关税带来的副作用远超好处，家庭开销每年多出上千美元，经济增长速度放缓，就业岗位流失，还让股市晃荡个不停。特朗 普政府一上台就重启贸易战模式，声称要让制造业回流，可实际情况呢？制造业占比还是卡在11%左右，没见多大起色，反而供应链乱套了。 先说说这些关税 ...

所以，汽车关税的这次"突变"，本质上是特朗普在保护本土产业和缓解行业阵痛之间走钢丝。他试图找到一个平衡点，却也再次暴露了他贸易政策的"反复 无常"，让全球市场都得跟着提心吊胆。 桌面上摊着两张牌，一张是给汽车产业的"豁免券"，一张是压在美国农民头上的"催命符"。这牌局，就是特朗普总统最新的关税大戏。你说这戏码魔幻不魔 幻？一边是机器轰鸣的汽车工厂可能要迎来春天，另一边，是广袤田野里大豆和葡萄的叹息。这背后，可不只是几项政策的调整，而是这位商人总统根深蒂 固的交易逻辑，一种充满着矛盾、取舍和政治算计的艺术。 咱们先说说汽车这事儿。你得知道，特朗普对汽车关税的态度，那真叫一个"川剧变脸"，快得很。 一开始，他大棒一挥，管你是谁，统统加征25%的关税，整个行业都给整蒙了。后来，又搞区别对待，跟英国、欧盟、日本这些"朋友"谈好了，就给人家松 松绑，关税降一点。这套组合拳下来，美国本土的汽车制造商，日子其实并不好过。 你想想，造车需要大量的钢和铝吧？特朗普先把钢铝关税给你提到50%，这成本"噌"地就上去了。然后，很多汽车零部件还得进口，好，零部件再加征25% 的关税。这一来二去，在美国本土造车的成本，比从欧洲日本进口成 ...

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgent need for energy to support its growth [1][2][3] - A specific company is highlighted as a key player in the AI energy sector, owning critical energy infrastructure assets that are essential for meeting the increasing energy demands of AI technologies [3][7][8] Investment Landscape - Wall Street is investing hundreds of billions into AI, but there is a looming question regarding the energy supply needed to sustain this growth [2] - AI data centers consume energy equivalent to that of small cities, indicating a significant strain on global power grids [2] - The company in focus is positioned to benefit from the surge in demand for electricity driven by AI advancements [3][6] Company Profile - The company is described as a "toll booth" operator in the AI energy boom, collecting fees from energy exports and benefiting from the onshoring trend due to tariffs [5][6] - It possesses a unique footprint in nuclear energy, which is crucial for America's future power strategy [7] - The company is debt-free and has a substantial cash reserve, equating to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, making it financially robust [8][10] Market Position - The company is noted for its ability to execute large-scale engineering, procurement, and construction projects across various energy sectors, including oil, gas, and renewables [7] - It has an equity stake in another AI-related company, providing indirect exposure to multiple growth engines in the AI sector [9][10] - The stock is considered undervalued, trading at less than seven times earnings, which presents a compelling investment opportunity [10][11] Future Outlook - The ongoing AI infrastructure supercycle, combined with the onshoring boom and increased U.S. LNG exports, positions the company favorably for future growth [14] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive continuous innovation and advancements, further solidifying the importance of energy infrastructure [12][13]

Artificial intelligence is the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. The time to invest in groundbreaking AI is now, and this stock is a steal! AI is eating the world—and the machines behind it are ravenous. Each ChatGPT query, each model update, each robotic breakthrough consumes massive amounts of energy. In fact, AI is already pushing global power grids to the brink. Wall Street is pouring hundreds of billions into artificial intelligence—training smarter chatbots, automating industries, and b ...