哈喽大家好，今天小无带大家聊聊美国制造业的"翻车现场"！ 本以为是给蓝领工人谋福利，没想到最后变成了"坑惨打工人"的大型翻车现场，岗位越推越少，工资越 涨越慢，蓝领们怕是哭晕在车间了！ 从希望寄托变成牺牲者 先给大家上组扎心数据：美国劳工统计局最新消息，9月份制造业工作岗位直接少了6000个，自从4月特 朗普政府搞"对等关税"以来，这领域累计已经少了5.9万个岗位。 更离谱的是，美国供应管理协会说，制造业岗位已经连续8个月在减少，压根看不到回暖的迹象。 合着这关税政策不是帮制造业，是给制造业"捅刀子"啊！本来想靠关税把工厂留在本土，结果企业直接 慌了——关税一搞，原材料成本涨了，市场不确定性也大了，谁敢扩大生产、招人啊？ 最后反倒让蓝领岗位成了"牺牲品"，连带着建筑、交通运输行业的增长也停摆了，白领就业市场也冻住 了，整个就业市场惨不忍睹。蓝领们的日子更是雪上加霜。 通胀本来就居高不下，他们的工资涨幅还在所有人群里垫底：2023年1月的时候，工资增幅还有6%以 上，现在直接骤降到1%左右；反观白领，工资涨幅从近2%涨到了3.7%，这差距简直越拉越大。 赚钱少了，花钱却越来越多，低收入家庭"月光族"比例都从20 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. manufacturing sector is experiencing a significant decline in blue-collar jobs, with a loss of 6,000 jobs in September and a total of 59,000 jobs since the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy by the Trump administration [1][2] - The manufacturing job market has contracted for eight consecutive months, while other sectors like construction and transportation are also facing stagnation [2] - The Trump administration's tariffs, intended to boost manufacturing jobs, have instead created uncertainty, leading companies to hesitate in hiring [2][3] Employment Trends - The U.S. manufacturing sector is struggling with a mismatch in supply and demand for skilled labor, with a report indicating that the lack of high-skilled workers is a major bottleneck [4] - There is a significant crisis in recruiting skilled blue-collar workers, with many factories unable to find suitable candidates despite ongoing recruitment efforts [4] - The current labor resource model in the U.S. manufacturing sector is not effectively designed to select blue-collar talent, leading to potential candidates being filtered out in the initial stages of recruitment [4] Wage Dynamics - Blue-collar workers in the U.S. are facing the lowest wage growth among all demographics, with their wage increase dropping from over 6% in January 2023 to around 1% currently [5] - In contrast, white-collar workers have seen wage growth increase from nearly 2% to approximately 3.7% over the same period, highlighting the disparity in wage growth [5] - The proportion of low-income families living paycheck to paycheck has risen from 27.1% to 29% in 2023, indicating the financial strain on low-wage blue-collar workers amid persistent inflation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Biden administration's unexpected decision to extend the tariff exemption period for over 300 product categories until 2026 reveals the vulnerabilities in the U.S. supply chain and highlights the deep reliance on Chinese imports for essential goods [1] Group 1: Exemption List Insights - The exemption list includes three notable categories: medical supplies (27%), industrial intermediate goods (41%), and consumer goods (32%), indicating a reliance on critical items that are essential for U.S. factories and supermarkets [3] - Among the exempted electrical components, 60% are directed towards "manufacturing return" projects in the U.S., illustrating the irony of importing components while promoting "American manufacturing" [3] Group 2: Tariff Implications - The exemption list serves as a diagnostic report for policymakers, showing ongoing dependence on Chinese supply chains for medical supplies and highlighting the insufficient domestic capacity to meet infrastructure demands [5] - Data indicates that out of 325 exempted items, 289 have seen a decline in U.S. domestic production over the past two years, emphasizing the challenges in rebuilding supply chains [7] Group 3: Political Calculations - The exemption strategy is a calculated political move, aimed at addressing voter concerns over inflation while allowing time for the "manufacturing return" initiative [5] - The selection of complex intermediate goods helps maintain U.S. factory operations without directly boosting Chinese brands, while the 2026 deadline aligns with the next presidential term, providing room for policy adjustments [7] - The ongoing trade dynamics between the U.S. and China reflect the resilience of global supply chains, with the extended exemption list serving as both an opportunity and a warning for China to continuously strengthen its industrial advantages [7]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgent need for energy to support its growth [1][2][3] - A specific company is highlighted as a critical player in the AI energy sector, owning essential energy infrastructure assets that are poised to benefit from the increasing demand for electricity driven by AI [3][7][8] Investment Landscape - Wall Street is investing hundreds of billions into AI technologies, but there is a pressing concern regarding the energy requirements of these technologies, as AI is described as the most electricity-hungry technology ever [2][6] - The company in focus is positioned to capitalize on the surge in demand for electricity, particularly as AI data centers expand [3][8] Company Profile - The company is characterized as a "toll booth" operator in the AI energy boom, collecting fees from energy exports and benefiting from the onshoring trend driven by tariffs [5][6] - It owns critical nuclear energy infrastructure and is capable of executing large-scale engineering, procurement, and construction projects across various energy sectors [7][8] Financial Position - The company is noted for being completely debt-free and holding a significant cash reserve, which is nearly one-third of its market capitalization [8][10] - It is trading at a low valuation of less than 7 times earnings, making it an attractive investment opportunity compared to other energy and utility firms [10][11] Market Trends - The AI infrastructure supercycle, the onshoring boom, and a surge in U.S. LNG exports are identified as key trends that the company is well-positioned to leverage [14] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive continuous innovation and advancements, further solidifying the importance of energy infrastructure [12][13]

2016年，局座张召忠的一句预言引发热议："若特朗普执政八年，将是首个把美国经济从世界老大带入老二的总统"。 尽管中间穿插了拜登四年任期，但如今美国学界与前政要的集体发声，已经印证了这一判断，称中国已具备与美国平起平坐的能力。 特朗普真的是美国地位滑落的"罪魁祸首"？中国的赶超，仅仅是拜对手的"神操作"所赐吗？ 预言正在实现 早在2016年，张召忠就说过一个判断：如果特朗普能长期执政，可能会成为第一个把美国经济从世界老大位置拉下来的总统，如今前白宫官员 杜如松的话更像是验证张绍忠预言已经成真。 更麻烦的是美元也出问题了，根据公开数据，特朗普执政以来，美元已经贬值超过11%，2025年上半年最深的时候跌了12%，以前美元是避险的硬通货， 如今美元的信誉明显打了折扣。 在他的文章中，将中国和美国平起平坐的原因归咎于特朗普，事实上在美国经济下滑这件事情上，特朗普是"主要功臣"。 2025年4月特朗普推出的"对等关税"政策一落地，美国老百姓最先遭罪，关税不是只针对中国，欧盟、日本这些多年的贸易伙伴也一样被加税，进口商品的 成本上去了，商场超市里的东西跟着就涨价。 企业的日子更不好过，像苹果、特斯拉这些大公司，零件本来 ...

通过高关税将就业岗位从服务业转移至制造业，每个岗位的年化成本超过20万美元。 自美国特朗普政府推行大规模关税政策、意图刺激"制造业回流"以来，美国的蓝领就业岗位不仅未见明 显增长，反而呈现收缩态势。 根据美国劳工统计局（BLS）发布的就业数据，自今年4月以来，美国制造业已累计流失5.8万个工作岗 位。美国供应管理协会（ISM）11月发布的报告也显示，制造业就业已连续第9个月处于收缩区间。 与此同时，进口关税带来的价格上涨抑制了终端需求，令制造业活动承压。标普全球（S&P Global）数 据显示，11月美国工厂活动已放缓至四个月以来的低点。美国密歇根大学的消费者调查中对购买耐用制 成品的信心降至低谷，受访消费者普遍对物价持续高企和收入增长乏力表示担忧。 全球投资咨询公司BCA研究首席策略师贝瑞津（Peter Berezin）对第一财经记者表示，目前主导就业市 场的仍是劳动力需求降幅大于供给的叙事。他表示："在过去12个月中，用于新建或扩建制造设施的整 体支出与活动均有所下降。根据各地区联储银行对企业扩张意愿的月度调查，资本支出意向表现也较为 疲弱。制造业经理人指数（PMI）同样表现不佳。当前主要依赖人工智能领 ...

中美贸易战就像路易十六，根本看不到头。 川子这边刚和咱们签完一年期 " 停战协议 " ，结果美国车企就又来上压力了。 前几天，美国《华尔街日报》就报道说，特斯拉很有可能在未来一到两年内，不再使用中国生产的零部件制造美国本土汽车，咱们国内的一些企业，估计 又要被 gank 一波。 不是，老马，你想干嘛？这边吃着中国的饭，回去就想砸咱们的碗？ 其实说实话，这事儿还真由不得他。在今年 5 月的时候，特朗普就表示，美国汽车制造商必须在美国本土完成整车和零部件的全部生产，否则就是各种关 税伺候。 原因就是美国一直以来的政策。比如在 2023 年，老美出台的《通胀削减法案》，直接包含了对咱们电池产品的禁令。 法案里明确要求，美国车企使用的电池组件和关键矿物（比如锂、镍、钴、石墨），不能有中国、俄罗斯、朝 鲜、伊朗等企业的成分，否则就拿不到 7500 美元的税收减免。 | 抵免项目 | 抵免金额 | 适用条件 | 例外条件 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 关键矿产 税收抵免 | 3750美元 | 电动车所用材料和"关键矿 物"须有一定比例开采来自 | 如果电池原材料的关键矿物是 由受特定政府（包 ...

Artificial intelligence is the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. The time to invest in groundbreaking AI is now, and this stock is a steal! AI is eating the world—and the machines behind it are ravenous. Each ChatGPT query, each model update, each robotic breakthrough consumes massive amounts of energy. In fact, AI is already pushing global power grids to the brink. Wall Street is pouring hundreds of billions into artificial intelligence—training smarter chatbots, automating industries, and b ...

关税政策本想帮忙，结果帮倒忙。从2018年开始加关税，到2025年扩展到钢铁、电子产品，税率25%到60%不等。企业成本直线上升，美国商会报告说， 89%的制造商成本涨了。消费者呢？额外支出每年3800美元左右。 说起美国制造业回流，这几年闹得沸沸扬扬，尤其是特朗普那时候推的关税政策，总想着用高关税把工厂逼回本土。结果呢，现实骨感得很。2025年都过了 一大半了，看看数据，制造业就业岗位不升反降，8月份丢了1.2万个工作，全年下来已经少了7.8万个。局劳工统计局的数据摆在那儿，不是随便说说的。工 厂想回来，劳动力从哪儿来？基础设施跟得上吗？供应链一断就乱套。这些问题堆在一起，回流听起来像个笑话。 先说劳动力这事儿。美国制造业现在缺人缺得慌。2025年2月份，就有48.2万个岗位空着没人干。制造业研究所和德勤的报告估摸着，到2033年，这个缺口 能到190万个。为什么？年轻人不爱进厂啊。现在的工厂不像以前那么简单，自动化到处都是，需要懂软件、数据分析、编码这些玩意儿。以前的蓝领工人 转不过弯来，新一代更愿意去科技公司或者服务行业混。 制造业平均时薪30多美元，听着不错，但比起硅谷那些高薪岗位，吸引力差远了。结果 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is preparing a backup plan to reinstate tariffs if the U.S. Supreme Court overturns the current tariff authority used by Trump, indicating a strong commitment to maintaining tariffs as a core part of economic policy [3][5][7]. Group 1: Backup Plan Details - The backup plan involves utilizing other legal authorities, specifically Sections 301 and 122 of the Trade Act, to impose tariffs if the Supreme Court rules against the current policy [3][5]. - The effectiveness of these backup options may be limited, as they could take longer to implement or have a narrower scope compared to the current powers [3][6]. - The administration is exploring new methods to sustain Trump's trade policies, emphasizing the importance of addressing the significant trade deficit and revitalizing domestic manufacturing [4][5]. Group 2: Legal Context and Implications - The Supreme Court is currently reviewing the legality of Trump's tariff policy, which is based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a law that has not been used by previous presidents for imposing tariffs [7][8]. - The total effective tariff rate on U.S. imports is estimated to be around 14.4%, with over half of this stemming from tariffs imposed under the emergency powers [5][6]. - If the court rules unfavorably, the government may have to refund over $88 billion in tariffs already collected, but officials believe they can restore tariffs through alternative legal means [7][9]. Group 3: Political and Economic Reactions - The Supreme Court's deliberations have raised questions among justices regarding the expansion of executive power in tariff imposition, with potential implications for future trade policy [7][8]. - The administration's commitment to tariffs remains strong, with Trump indicating that alternative methods will be sought if the court ruling is not favorable [3][9]. - The ongoing legal challenges and potential for a ruling against the current tariff policy create uncertainty for businesses and foreign governments [5][9].