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【真灼港股名家】国际黄金定价权东移
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-22 01:26
Group 1 - The ongoing financial conflict between China and the US is escalating, with a significant transformation in the global monetary system underway, marking a confrontation between old and new monetary systems [2] - The unusual premium in the US gold market, particularly the expanding EFP (exchange for physical) premium, indicates a severe shortage of physical gold, raising questions about the actual gold reserves held by the US Federal Reserve [2] - Since 1950, the US Federal Reserve has not allowed an independent audit of its gold reserves, leading to skepticism about the existence of the claimed 8,133 tons of gold [2] Group 2 - China is experiencing a massive influx of gold, with estimates suggesting its actual gold reserves may exceed 30,000 tons, significantly higher than the official figure of 2,279 tons [3] - From 2016 to 2022, China imported 5,978 tons of gold, while the official increase in reserves was much lower, indicating a substantial amount of gold is held privately, particularly by individual investors [3] - In 2024, demand for gold investment in China is projected to reach 336 tons, marking an 11-year high, with Swiss exports of gold to China surging by 300% [3] Group 3 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange is redefining global gold pricing authority, with its premiums becoming more accurate indicators of gold prices than US Federal Reserve policies [5] - In the first quarter of the year, trading volume on the Shanghai Gold Exchange surged by 43%, and gold futures trading skyrocketed by 143%, reflecting a strong accumulation of gold by Chinese institutional investors [5] - The transition of gold from a safe-haven asset to a new international monetary anchor is expected to support long-term high gold prices amid the restructuring of the global monetary system [5]