2025年10月7日，COMEX黄金价格首次站上4000美元/盎司整数关口，再创历史新高。回顾年内走势， 金价自年初2758美元/盎司起步，在连续上涨四个月后，经历了为期三个月的小幅调整；8月市场重启升 势，9月单月涨幅达10.57%，创下本轮行情以来的最大月度涨幅；进入10月后，金价延续涨势并突破 4000美元/盎司关键关口，截至目前年内累计涨幅已超47%。 就8月启动的本轮上涨行情看，美联储货币政策转向构成了最直接的推动因素——8月美国非农就业仅新 增2.2万人（远低于预期的7.5万人），失业率升至4.3%，制造业PMI连续6个月萎缩，这一系列数据迫使 美联储在9月启动年内首次降息，点阵图更预示年内或累计降息75个基点。而10月1日美国联邦政府停摆 事件进一步加剧了市场恐慌，市场担忧停摆可能导致经济数据延迟发布，叠加凯雷集团估算9月非农就 业新增仅1.7万人（远低于预期的5.4万人），进一步强化了美联储10月降息的预期，对金价形成有力支 撑。 与此同时，地缘政治风险的多点爆发持续推升全球避险需求。2025年9月9日，以色列对卡塔尔多哈发动 精准打击，将冲突延伸至这一能源枢纽，进一步加剧了市场恐慌情绪，并刺 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the surge in gold prices, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and central bank gold purchases, while also highlighting potential risks and investment strategies for ordinary investors. Group 1: Price Surge Drivers - Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: The Fed has cut rates by 125 basis points in 2025, leading to a 15% decline in the dollar index to 102.3, significantly reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [2][3] - Geopolitical Conflicts: Escalating tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war have increased demand for gold, with over 170 tons net inflow into gold ETFs in a single month [4] - Central Bank Purchases: In Q2 2025, global central banks bought 166 tons of gold, with China increasing its reserves to 74.02 million ounces over ten consecutive months [5][6] Group 2: Future Trends - Bullish Outlook: Technical analysis suggests that gold could reach $4,000, with major institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan raising their price targets [7] - Risk Awareness: The RSI indicator is at 78, indicating overbought conditions, with potential short-term pullbacks to the $3,600-$3,650 range [8] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Allocation Logic: It is recommended to allocate 5%-15% of investment portfolios to gold as a stabilizer against market volatility [9] - Tool Selection: Conservative investors may prefer physical gold or bank savings gold, while aggressive investors might consider gold ETFs or futures contracts [11][12] - Timing Strategy: Investors should look for buying opportunities around the $3,600 support level and consider event-driven strategies around Federal Reserve meetings and employment data releases [13][14]

在人民币升值、美联储降息预期强化的背景下，看好港股"追赶"行情，从"外卖叙事"回归"AI叙事"，关 注汇集AI核心资产的港股科技互联网板块。 对于普通投资者而言，直接进行个股投资门槛高、风险大，不妨借道相关ETF参与布局。港股通科技 ETF基金（159101）紧密跟踪国证港股通科技指数，精选30只市值大、研发投入高的科技龙头，前十大 权重股占比达77%，既聚焦腾讯、阿里等互联网巨头，也覆盖理想汽车、百济神州等新兴势力，全面覆 盖"软硬件+新消费+创新药+造车新势力"热门赛道。 每日经济新闻 9月23日，恒指高开0.35%，恒生科技指数涨0.21%。港股科技方面，商汤-W上涨1.5%，比亚迪电子上 涨1.2%。港股通科技ETF基金（159101）持续获资金青睐，近一周净流入3.5亿元，最新规模突破20亿 元。 降息促进全球资金流动性释放，中国资产可能相对受益，尤其是在当前全球货币体系重构背景下，美元 贬值和创新叙事反转相结合，两者反映的全球货币秩序重构可能是本轮市场行情的核心驱动力，新货币 秩序下人民币资产相对受益；如果政策应对得当，人民币资产有望受益于全球货币体系加速碎片化、多 元化的双重红利——碎片化加速中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points (BP) to a range of 4.00%-4.25% aligns with market expectations, indicating potential for two more rate cuts by 2025, which enhances market risk appetite and may lead to short-term pressure on gold prices [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates is expected to ease recession fears in the U.S., as recent economic data shows improvement, including better-than-expected retail sales and a decrease in initial jobless claims [2] - The Fed's updated dot plot suggests two additional rate cuts by 2025, totaling approximately 50 BP, which could further influence market dynamics [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The recent rate cut is likely to result in short-term fluctuations in gold prices, as market participants take profits amid rising risk appetite [2][3] - Despite short-term pressures, long-term prospects for gold remain positive due to ongoing U.S. government debt risks and challenges to the dollar's status, suggesting potential for sustained performance in the gold market [2] Group 3: Industrial Metals - The industrial metals sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, with rising processing rates for copper and aluminum as the market enters a traditional peak season [3] - Increased domestic policy flexibility and a favorable macroeconomic environment, coupled with supply-side disruptions, are likely to strengthen the industrial metals market, presenting a good opportunity for investment [3]

中信证券研报也提到，本次会议降息25个基点、点阵图指引年内可能还有50个基点降息均符合预期，预 计美联储将在10月和12月的议息会议上分别再次降息25个基点。待新任美联储主席的最终人选落地后， 2026年利率路径才会更加清晰，在此之前市场或会对明年利率路径进行定价，但其后续变数较大。 中金公司研报观点也指出，美联储9月降息25个基点，符合市场预期。美联储较好回应了市场的关切， 但也保持了克制。此前期待的降息50个基点并未出现，决策者对于下一步降息存在较大分歧。往前看， 由于就业数据过于疲软，预计美联储或将于10月再次降息，但在这之后，通胀升温将使降息门槛越来越 高，货币宽松空间也将受限。当前美国经济的症结并非需求不足，而是成本上升。过度的货币宽松非但 无法解决就业问题，反而可能加剧通胀，使经济陷入"类滞胀"困境。 北京时间9月18日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，符合市场预期。鲍威尔表示可以理解为这是一次风险管 理式降息。多数观点指出，此次降息后，美联储还将在年内降息两次，分别是在今年10月和12月。在降 息消息影响下，9月18日早盘，A股三大股指经历了先跌后涨。部分业内人士认为，降息促进全球资金 流动性释放，中 ...

北京时间9月18日凌晨2点，美联储宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.25%—4.50%降至4.00%— 4.25%，降幅25个基点。这是美联储2025年以来首次降息。 决议公布后，市场反应剧烈，美股三大指数一度集体冲高，随后迅速跳水，截至收盘，道指涨0.54%， 纳指跌0.33%，标普500指数跌0.1%。美股大型科技股多数走低，博通跌近4%，英伟达跌超2%，亚马 逊、甲骨文跌超1%，谷歌、Meta小幅下跌。 在人民币升值、美联储降息预期强化的背景下，看好港股"追赶"行情，从"外卖叙事"回归"AI叙事"，关 注汇集AI核心资产的港股科技互联网板块。 【港股科技相关ETF】 覆盖科技全产业链——港股通科技ETF基金（159101）； 聚焦互联网龙头——恒生互联网ETF（513330）。 热门中概股集体走强，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨2.85%，百度暴涨超11%，万国数据大涨超7%，蔚来 汽车涨超6%，拼多多涨超4%，腾讯音乐涨超3%，阿里巴巴、理想汽车、哔哩哔哩、新东方涨超2%。 美联储降息往往伴随全球资金再配置。降息促进全球资金流动性释放，中国资产可能相对受益，尤其是 在当前全球货币体系重构背景下，美元贬值和创 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.41%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index surging by 3.49% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.78% on September 17, with a half-day trading volume of HKD 192.36 billion [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF (159101) gained 2.71%, with notable increases in component stocks such as SMIC (+5.70%), SenseTime-W (+5.26%), Meituan-W (+5.18%), Alibaba-W (+5.02%), and Tencent Holdings (+2.09%) [1] - The market anticipates a greater than 90% probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in September, with probabilities exceeding 70% for cuts in October and December [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to facilitate global capital reallocation, potentially benefiting Chinese assets amid a backdrop of global monetary system restructuring, with a combination of US dollar depreciation and a reversal of innovative narratives [2] - If policies are effectively managed, Chinese assets may benefit from the dual dividends of accelerated capital repatriation and global capital rebalancing, with some funds possibly flowing into the Chinese capital market [2] - In the context of renminbi appreciation and strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts, there is optimism for a "catch-up" rally in Hong Kong stocks, shifting focus from "takeout narratives" to "AI narratives," particularly in the tech and internet sectors [2] Group 3 - Relevant ETFs include the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF (159101) for the tech sector and the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) for internet leaders [3]

Group 1 - The external constraints are weakening, allowing for a more accommodative monetary policy in China, with two interest rate cuts since the beginning of the current easing cycle [1] - The depreciation of the US dollar has led to differentiated exchange rate gains and losses, with the USD/CNY rate declining from 7.3 to around 7.1 since 2025, easing the debt repayment pressure for companies holding USD loans [1] - The easing of monetary policy is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, benefiting from global liquidity influx and a restructuring of the global monetary system, with a potential return of foreign capital to the Chinese market [1] Group 2 - Foreign capital allocation is focusing on core assets characterized by distinct trends, with significant increases in the software and services, and technology hardware sectors in Hong Kong stocks, driven by advancements in AI technologies [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect and QDII funds are highlighted as investment vehicles for technology-related ETFs, such as the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) and the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) [1]

美联储降息往往伴随全球资金再配置。降息促进全球资金流动性释放，中国资产可能相对收益，尤其是 在当前全球货币体系重构背景下，美元贬值和创新叙事反转相结合，两者反映的全球货币秩序重构可能 是本轮市场行情的核心驱动力，新货币秩序下人民币资产相对受益；如果政策应对得当，人民币资产有 望受益于全球货币体系加速碎片化、多元化的双重红利——碎片化加速中国在海外的资金回流，多元化 驱动全球资金再平衡，或有部分资金流向中国资本市场。美联储重启降息或将促进全球资金流动性释 放、对美元汇率形成一定下行压力，从而有望进一步推动全球资金再配置。 美联储于2024年9月开启本轮降息周期，2024年降息三次，但2025年以来在多方不确定性因素影响下暂 未降息。 近期美国通胀压力不大、就业趋弱，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上释放鸽派信号，市场对美降 息预期再度升温。9月11日公布的美国8月CPI同比增长2.9%、核心CPI同比增长3.1%，较上月的 2.7%/3.0%略有上行但幅度不大；9月5日公布的8月非农就业人数增加2.2万，低于市场预期，继此前大 幅下修就业数据后，9日劳工部发布的初步修订数据显示2024年4月至2025年3月美国 ...

中金公司策略团队在近期发布的《牛市成因之辩——国际货币体系变迁视角》中表示，美元贬值和创新 叙事反转相结合，两者反映的全球货币秩序重构可能是本轮中国权益资产行情的核心驱动力。如果政策 应对得当，人民币资产有望受益于全球货币体系加速碎片化、多元化的双重红利——碎片化加速中国在 海外的资金回流，多元化驱动全球资金再平衡，或有部分资金流向中国资本市场。总体看，美联储重启 降息或将促进全球资金流动性释放、对美元汇率形成一定下行压力，从而有望进一步推动全球资金再配 置。 首先，美联储降息一定程度或有助于缓解我国货币政策外部掣肘。我国将继续执行"适度宽松的货币政 策"。 其次，美联储降息可能带来弱势美元。人民币相对升值可能对出口及出海类企业产生一定影响，但相应 有美元借款企业的偿还压力也降低，财务层面需要考虑汇兑损益对不同企业影响。 最后，美联储降息往往伴随全球资金再配置。尤其是在当前全球货币体系重构背景下，美国降息促进全 球资金流动性释放，中国资产可能相对受益。 近期，市场对美联储重启降息的预期再度升温。截至9月13日，根据CME FedWatch，市场对美联储9月 重启降息的预期概率超过90%，且10月、12月降息的 ...