Report Overview - Report Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Industry: Eggs [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the weakest summer peak season in recent years, the spot market has gradually stabilized and rebounded. The current rebound is supported by increased elimination and seasonal demand, but supply pressure remains, and the upside of this rebound should not be overestimated. The futures market has made up for the gains due to the strong spot market over the weekend. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices. The fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter, and there may still be adjustment space in the short - to - medium term [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Over the weekend, national egg prices rose. The average price in the main production areas was 3.66 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.93 yuan/jin, up 0.22 yuan/jin. The 10 - contract rose 2.90%. The 2510 contract closed at 3126, up 88 or 2.90%; the 2511 contract closed at 3143, up 95 or 3.12%; the 2512 contract closed at 3245, up 70 or 2.20% [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider taking profits on long positions at high prices. The 10 - contract may enter the delivery month with a high discount. The upside of this rebound should not be overestimated, and the remaining time for spot price increases is about 1 week. Follow - up contract operations need to continuously monitor elimination and replenishment data. The fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter, and there may be adjustment space in the short - to - medium term [8] 2. Industry News - **In - Production Laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of August, the national monthly inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.365 billion, up from 1.356 billion at the end of July and 1.34 billion at the end of June, with a month - on - month increase of 0.7% and a year - on - year increase of 6.0% [9] - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In August, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.81 million, down from 39.98 million in July and significantly lower than 43.95 million in the same period in 2024 [9] - **Chicken Culling Volume**: As of September 4, the culling volumes in the previous three weeks were 16.76 million, 18.51 million, and 17.89 million respectively. The culling volume has been increasing since August, and the average culling age was 495 days, 1 day earlier than the previous week and 11 days earlier than the previous month [10]

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The spot price of eggs continued to fall over the weekend. The adjustment in the peak season this year was greater than expected. The short - term market downturn may continue, squeezing the premium of futures. Although there will be at least one wave of price increases in August according to historical patterns, the expected target is lowered to 3.6 - 3.8 yuan. It is not recommended to buy the dip in the 09 contract in the short term. The fourth - quarter contracts are currently at a historically low valuation, but it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm and entry timing, and it is advisable to conduct band operations [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2509 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3394, the opening price was 3359, the highest price was 3372, the lowest price was 3323, the closing price was 3330, down 64 or 1.89%, with a trading volume of 253,161 and an open interest of 227,835, a decrease of 4144. - For the 2510 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3258, the opening price was 3245, the highest price was 3266, the lowest price was 3242, the closing price was 3252, down 6 or 0.18%, with a trading volume of 94,484 and an open interest of 194,539, a decrease of 879. - For the 2511 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3335, the opening price was 3323, the highest price was 3352, the lowest price was 3318, the closing price was 3349, up 14 or 0.42%, with a trading volume of 30,860 and an open interest of 91,845, an increase of 3208. - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.95 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.25 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Do not buy the dip in the 09 contract in the short term. For the fourth - quarter contracts, it is advisable to conduct band operations and pay attention to the rhythm and entry timing [8]. 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9]. - The monthly output of day - old chicks in sample enterprises in July was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. This was the first year - on - year decrease in the monthly replenishment volume this year [9]. - From the first to the third week of July 31, the national chicken culling volumes were 13.01 million, 13.38 million, and 15.05 million respectively. The culling volume has been decreasing since June, and the decline rate is higher than the seasonal average. As of July 31, the average age of culled chickens was 507 days, one day later than the previous week and one day earlier than the previous month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides figures on the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg chicken farming profits, egg 08 contract basis, egg 08 - 09 spread, average price of eggs in the main producing areas, and egg 09 seasonal trends, with data sources including Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and others [16][14][11]