鸡蛋期货
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建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251125
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 09:13
行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 11 月 25 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...
鸡蛋日报-20251124
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 12:03
研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号: Z0014425 联系方式: :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3210 | 3184 | 26 | 01-05 | -300 | -309 | 9 | | JD05 | 3510 | 3493 | 17 | 05-09 | -368 | -382 | 14 | | JD09 | 3878 | 3875 | 3 | 09-01 | 668 | 691 | -23 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 0.00 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.55 | 1 ...
鸡蛋市场周报:产能压力牵制下,期价低位偏弱震荡-20251121
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 10:23
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.21」 鸡蛋市场周报 产能压力牵制下 期价低位偏弱震荡 研究员:许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话:0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 Ø 鸡蛋: Ø 行情回顾:本周鸡蛋震荡收跌,2601合约收盘价为3184元/500千克,较前一周-51元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望:养殖端持续亏损使得补栏积极性下滑且老鸡淘汰量有所增加,蛋鸡存栏小幅回落,市 场氛围略有好转。且现货价格持续偏低,市场补栏积极性欠佳,利好远期价格。不过,蛋鸡在产 存栏仍然处于高位,老鸡尚未出现超淘,高产能仍对市场形成压制。总体而言,市场博弈于弱现 实与强预期之间。本周鸡蛋期价维持低位偏弱震荡,短期或继续处于宽幅震荡状态。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 来源:瑞达期货研究院 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 图2、大商所鸡蛋指数期货前二十名持仓变化 来源:大商所 wind 来源:大商所 ...
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:52
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Today, the national egg price declined. The average price in the main production areas was 2.85 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 01 contract dropped 0.53% [8] - Last week, the spot market weakened again. The prices in the two - lake powder egg areas, the main force of the previous rebound, gradually declined, while the supply - demand of northern red eggs was relatively balanced with stable prices. The market sales returned to a slow pace. Considering the cooler temperature and better egg storage conditions, there won't be a large - scale dumping like in the rainy and summer seasons. It is expected that the egg price will have a narrow - range adjustment at a low level this week [8] - In terms of futures, due to the short - term downturn of the spot market, there was a certain decline this week. The near - month contracts had a larger decline as they were approaching delivery, while the far - month contracts were relatively firm due to the expectation of inventory reduction [8] - Fundamentally, the layer inventory in late October decreased on a monthly basis for the first time this year, indicating that the poor breeding profit has gradually affected the supply side. Also, observing the year - on - year data of the replenishment volume in the past four months, it is expected that the layer inventory may continue to decline slightly in the medium term [8] Operation Suggestions - In the short term, the market is considered to be in a low - level shock. The low spot price may last for some time. Opportunities for long positions in far - month contracts can be considered on dips, but there may still be fluctuations in the near term. It is advisable to conduct a reverse spread between near - and far - month spreads [8] Contract Details | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2601 | 3197 | 3180 | 3194 | 3157 | 3180 | - 17 | - 0.53% | 151302 | 208381 | 195915 | | 2602 | 2993 | 2968 | 2979 | 2948 | 2971 | - 22 | - 0.74% | 37394 | 124504 | 1313 | | 2512 | 2950 | 2922 | 2936 | 2902 | 2928 | - 22 | - 0.75% | 45650 | 42097 | - 8730 | [7] Group 3: Industry News Inventory - As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, down 0.66% from 1.368 billion at the end of September 2025, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but up 5.59% year - on - year compared with 1.287 billion at the end of October 2024 [9] Replenishment - In October 2025, the monthly output of layer chicks of sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment in the past four months (July - October 2025) was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period last year (July - October 2024) [9] Group 4: Data Overview Elimination Volume - According to the latest data from Zhuochuang Information, in the three weeks up to November 13, 2025, the national chicken elimination volumes were 20.53 million, 19.81 million, and 19.47 million respectively, showing a downward trend recently [17] Elimination Age - As of November 13, 2025, the average elimination age of chickens was 493 days, the same as last week and 6 days earlier than last month [17]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251118
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 11:59
Industry Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: November 18, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The spot egg market has weakened again, with prices in the Hubei and Hunan powder egg regions declining, while prices in the northern red egg region remain stable. Egg sales have returned to a slow pace, and prices are expected to adjust narrowly at a low level this week. Futures prices have declined due to the temporary weakness of the spot market, with near - term contracts falling more significantly and far - term contracts being relatively firm due to the expectation of reduced inventory. The egg - laying hen inventory decreased month - on - month for the first time in October, and there is an expectation of a continuous slight decline in the medium - term. If the low - price period in the fourth quarter is longer, the probability and elasticity of a reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year will be greater. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and opportunities for long positions in far - term contracts can be considered on dips, while a reverse spread between near - and far - term contracts is advisable [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For the egg 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3251, the opening price was 3210, the highest price was 3231, the lowest price was 3190, the closing price was 3229, down 22 or - 0.68% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 201,850 and an open interest of 219,756 (an increase of 207,641). For the 2602 contract, the previous settlement price was 3048, the opening price was 3036, the highest price was 3042, the lowest price was 3018, the closing price was 3038, down 10 or - 0.33%, with a trading volume of 27,929 and an open interest of 117,265 (an increase of 2589). For the 2512 contract, the previous settlement price was 3043, the opening price was 3000, the highest price was 3023, the lowest price was 2970, the closing price was 2987, down 56 or - 1.84%, with a trading volume of 99,000 and an open interest of 57,337 (a decrease of 14,044) [7] - **Spot Market**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main consuming areas was 3.28 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The 01 contract fell 0.68% [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Opportunities for long positions in far - term contracts can be considered on dips, but there may be fluctuations in the near term. A reverse spread between near - and far - term contracts is advisable [8] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China was about 1.359 billion, down 0.66% month - on - month from 1.368 billion at the end of September 2025, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but up 5.59% year - on - year compared with 1.287 billion at the end of October 2024 [9] - **Chick Rearing**: In October 2025, the monthly output of egg - laying chicks by sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total chick rearing volume in the past four months (July - October 2025) was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period of 2024 [9] 3. Data Overview - **Culling Volume**: As of November 13, 2025, the weekly culling volumes of laying hens in the previous three weeks were 20.53 million, 19.81 million, and 19.47 million respectively, showing a downward trend [17] - **Culling Age**: As of November 13, 2025, the average culling age of laying hens was 493 days, unchanged from the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month [17]
生猪鸡蛋周报:生猪供给持续充足,鸡蛋需求有所走弱-20251114
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 12:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Both the hog and egg markets are in a downward - trending phase, and their price centers are expected to decline in the future [2][3]. - For hogs, due to high levels of breeding sows, increased production performance, and high supply pressure in the second half of 2025, along with limited demand boost from economic slowdown and changing consumer preferences, the rebound space for hog prices is limited. Policy disturbances, sufficient supply, and weak demand acceptance lead to weak market sentiment. Short - term hog prices may be weak, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [3]. - For eggs, with the inventory of laying hens at a high level year - on - year, continuous supply pressure, and limited demand fluctuations affected by the macro - economy and consumer preferences, the egg price is expected to remain low. The 01 contract is in the demand peak season, but high supply may lead to insufficient demand acceptance. The overall advice is to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Hog Section - **Supply**: - Pork supply depends on the number of hog slaughter and slaughter weight. Since the import accounts for less than 5%, domestic production is the main source. The number of hog slaughter is determined by production capacity, and weight shows seasonal changes within the year. The supply will remain high until the first half of 2026, and attention should be paid to the impact of the slaughter rhythm on short - term supply [9][10]. - The overall slaughter weight is rising as the weather gets colder, and the entry of second - fattening hogs decreases. It is expected to continue rising as the weather further cools and the price difference between fat and standard hogs becomes more obvious [11]. - **Demand**: - In the long - term, pork consumption is related to income, population, and consumption habits; in the medium - term, it has obvious seasonality; in the short - term, it changes with festivals and price fluctuations. Currently, as the weather gets colder, the downstream demand is in the peak season, and the slaughter volume is slowly increasing. Second - fattening and frozen - product storage form short - term demand, but recently, the second - fattening entry is cautious, and the willingness to slaughter en masse is low [23]. - **Cost and Profit**: - As of November 13, the self - breeding and self - raising model's cost is 12.41 yuan/kg, and the cost of purchasing piglets is 13.99 yuan/kg. The breeding industry is in a loss, and the production capacity reduction is slow. Breeders are pessimistic about the future, mainly replacing sows, and increasing the elimination of high - parity sows [36][37]. - **Policy**: - The state uses reserve purchases and sales to regulate market supply and demand and stabilize the hog market. Currently, the market is in the second - level early - warning range of excessive price decline, and the third batch of central pork reserve purchases will be launched [44]. - **Spreads and Basis**: - A series of data on hog spreads and basis are provided, including the basis of different contracts in Henan and various inter - contract spreads, with daily - updated data [52][61][67]. 3.2 Egg Section - **Supply**: - Egg supply is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. Since the beginning of 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened, and the new production in the fourth quarter will decline. At the same time, the number of culled hens has increased due to low egg prices. Although the inventory of laying hens may decline in the fourth quarter, it will still be at a high level year - on - year, and the egg supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the culling situation [73]. - Recently, replenishment has been weak, the culling sentiment has declined, the inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is still abundant. The feed cost has rebounded slightly, and the overall breeding cost is around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [74][75]. - **Demand**: - In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economy, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend. In the medium - and short - term, it has obvious seasonality, with peaks before traditional festivals. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, and after the end of e - commerce promotions, the demand boost is not obvious, but high vegetable prices still provide some support [85]. - **Spreads and Basis**: - Data on egg spreads and basis are provided, including inter - contract spreads and the basis of different contracts in Hebei, with daily - updated data [100].
鸡蛋市场周报:续涨动能不足,鸡蛋期价再度回落-20251114
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 11:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the egg market fluctuated and closed lower. The 2601 contract closed at 3,235 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 56 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Under the pressure of high production capacity, the futures price weakened again recently and may be in a wide - range shock state in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The egg market fluctuated and closed lower this week. The 2601 contract closed at 3,235 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 56 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens being culled. The laying - hen inventory has slightly declined, and the market sentiment has improved slightly. However, the inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and there has been no excessive culling of old hens. High production capacity remains the main concern of the market. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Recently, under the restraint of high - production - capacity pressure, the futures price has weakened again and may be in a wide - range shock state in the short term [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures contract 1 fluctuated and declined. The position volume was 208,963 lots, an increase of 28,593 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 17,934, compared with - 7,153 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3,039 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 38 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active egg contract 1 futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 196 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The egg 1 - 5 spread was reported at - 242 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of November 13, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.89 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was reported at 5.77 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side Indicators**: As of September 30, 2025, the laying - hen inventory index nationwide was reported at 115.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The new - chick index nationwide was reported at 76.65, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [39]. - **Culling Indicators**: As of September 30, 2025, the culled laying - hen index nationwide was reported at 124.63, a month - on - month increase of 33.14%. The average age of culled chickens nationwide was reported at 507 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of November 13, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2,259.8 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3,020 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Prices and Breeding Profits**: As of November 7, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.47 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.76 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Prices of Laying - Hen Chicks and Culled Chickens**: As of November 7, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 2.8 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was reported at 8.06 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In September 2025, China's total egg exports were 13,215.79 tons, an increase of 1,631.15 tons compared with 11,584.64 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 14.08%, and a month - on - month increase of 94.76 tons compared with 13,121.03 tons in the previous month [62]. 4. Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: A figure on the change in price - earnings ratio is provided, but no specific analysis content is available [64].
【生猪鸡蛋周报】生猪供给持续充足,鸡蛋需求有所走弱-20251114
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 11:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The hog market is in a phase of oscillatory decline, and the price center is expected to decrease in the later stage. The supply of hogs is increasing due to a persistently high inventory of breeding sows and improved production performance. Although the demand is expected to seasonally pick up in the second half of 2025, the boost may be limited due to slow economic development and changing consumer preferences. Policy disturbances, sufficient supply, and insufficient demand may lead to weak short - term hog prices. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - The egg market is also in an oscillatory decline, and the price center is expected to remain low. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year - on - year, and the supply pressure persists. The demand has seasonal changes, but is limited by the macro - economy and consumer preferences. The 01 contract is in the peak demand season, but the high supply is expected to outpace the demand, so the overall market is still under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Hog Section 3.1.1 Supply - **Capacity and long - term supply**: The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the official normal level of 30 million. The supply will remain high until the first half of 2026, and attention should be paid to the impact of the farmers' slaughter rhythm on short - term supply [10]. - **Weight and short - term supply**: As the weather turns cold, the overall weight of hogs has increased, and the slaughter rhythm is normal. The overall slaughter weight is expected to continue to rise as the weather gets colder and the price difference between fat and standard hogs becomes more obvious [11]. 3.1.2 Demand - With the colder weather, the downstream demand has entered the peak season, and the slaughter volume is slowly increasing. In addition to actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage form short - term apparent demand. Recently, the secondary fattening has been cautious, and the willingness to concentrate on slaughter is not high [23]. 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - As of November 13, 2025, the breeding cost of large - scale farms in the self - breeding and self - raising mode is 12.41 yuan/kg, and that in the mode of purchasing piglets is 13.99 yuan/kg. The breeding enterprises are in a loss state, and the capacity reduction is slow [36]. 3.1.4 Policy - The state will start the third batch of central pork reserve purchases to promote a reasonable rebound in hog prices. There have been multiple rounds of central reserve frozen pork rotation and purchase and storage transactions in the past [44][45]. 3.1.5 Spread and Basis - The report provides data on various hog spreads and bases, such as the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11 contract bases in Henan, and the 1 - 3, 3 - 5, 5 - 7, 7 - 9, 9 - 11, 11 - 1, 1 - 5 spreads [52][67][69]. 3.2 Egg Section 3.2.1 Supply - The supply of eggs is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the laying rate. Since 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened, and the number of newly - opened layers in the fourth quarter is expected to decrease. At the same time, the number of culled hens has increased due to low egg prices. The inventory of laying hens may decline in the fourth quarter but will still remain high year - on - year, resulting in sufficient egg supply [73]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economic development, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend. In the short - and medium - term, egg demand has obvious seasonality. Currently, it is the off - season, and although the demand has increased year - on - year, the seasonal demand change is still significant. The end of e - commerce promotions has failed to boost the demand significantly, but the high vegetable prices still provide some support [85]. 3.2.3 Cost - The recent feed cost has rebounded slightly, and the overall breeding cost has not fluctuated much, currently around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [75]. 3.2.4 Spread and Basis - The report provides data on various egg spreads and bases, such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads, and the 01, 05, 09, 10, 11, 12 contract bases in Hebei [100].
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251114
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 06:35
Report Overview - Report Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Industry: Eggs [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The egg market is currently in a phase of adjustment. The recent decline in egg prices is mainly due to the end of the previous price increase, with short - sellers re - entering the market, especially in the near - month contracts. In the future, the decline is expected to be limited due to improved storage conditions and slightly better存栏量. In the long run, the decline may accelerate the elimination of laying hens and keep the replenishment rate low, presenting potential long - position opportunities in the more distant months. In the short - term, the market will likely experience bottom - level fluctuations with near - month contracts being relatively weak [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The egg futures market showed a downward trend. The 2601 contract closed at 3265, down 62 points or 1.86%; the 2602 contract closed at 3045, down 27 points or 0.88%; the 2512 contract closed at 3040, down 52 points or 1.68%. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas was 3.31 yuan/jin, also down 0.01 yuan/jin [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short - term, the market is expected to experience bottom - level fluctuations with near - month contracts being relatively weak. In the long - term, as the decline may accelerate the elimination of laying hens and keep the replenishment rate low, long - position opportunities in the more distant months can be gradually considered [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but a year - on - year increase of 5.59% compared to October 2024 [9] - **Replenishment**: In October 2025, the monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment from July to October 2025 was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period of 2024 [9] - **Elimination Volume**: From the latest data, in the three weeks up to November 6, 2025, the national elimination volume of laying hens was 20.02 million, 20.53 million, and 19.81 million respectively, showing a fluctuating trend. The average elimination age was 493 days as of November 6, 2025, 1 day earlier than the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month, indicating an accelerated elimination process [9][14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg production area average prices, egg 12 - contract basis, and egg 12 - 02 spread, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [13][10][11]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251113
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:27
Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The report focuses on the egg industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current egg market may enter a phase of correction, with red eggs showing stable supply and demand The decline in futures prices is mainly due to the re - entry of short - sellers after the end of the price increase phase The decline is expected to be limited, with support above the previous low In the long - term, the decline may accelerate culling and keep the replenishment rate low, presenting long - position opportunities in the more distant months, but in the short - term, the market will likely oscillate at the bottom with near - month contracts being weaker [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The egg 2601 contract closed at 3322, down 65 or 1.92%; the 2602 contract closed at 3069, down 31 or 1.00%; the 2512 contract closed at 3063, down 103 or 3.25% The average price in the main production areas was 2.99 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.31 yuan/jin, also down 0.01 yuan/jin [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short - term, treat the market as bottom - oscillating with near - month contracts being weaker In the long - term, gradually pay attention to long - position opportunities in more distant months [8] 3.2. Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, down 0.66% month - on - month, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but up 5.59% year - on - year compared to October 2024 [9] - **Replenishment**: In October 2025, the monthly hatchling volume of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly down from 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly down from 44.83 million in the same period in 2024 The cumulative replenishment from July to October 2025 was about 158.14 million, compared to about 176.1 million in the same period in 2024 [9] - **Culling Volume**: As of November 6, 2025, the national culling volume in the previous three weeks was 20.02 million, 20.53 million, and 19.81 million respectively, showing a fluctuating trend [9] - **Culling Age**: As of November 6, 2025, the average culling age was 493 days, 1 day earlier than the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month, indicating an accelerated culling process [14] 3.3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg chicken farming profit, egg prices in the main production areas, seasonal trends of egg 12 contracts, basis of egg 12 contracts, and the spread between egg 12 - 02 contracts [13][10][11]