Core Viewpoint - The main driver for the recent surge in egg futures is a combination of factors including pre-Qingming stocking demand, tight inventory structure, strong pricing intentions from the breeding sector, concentrated capital inflow, and supply tightening due to molting [4][5][6][8]. Market Performance - On March 26, the main egg futures contract JD2605 continued to perform strongly, supported by pre-Qingming stocking and low inventory levels, with a closing price of 3512 yuan per 500 kg, up 103 yuan or 3.02% from the previous settlement [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - **Supply Side**: The current inventory levels are critically low, with production inventory at only 0.81 days and circulation inventory at 1.11 days, indicating a significant reduction in supply pressure [5][20]. The national laying hen population remains high at approximately 1.296 billion, with a slight increase expected [9]. - **Demand Side**: Pre-Qingming stocking has led to a notable increase in demand, with sales in major regions rising significantly. The average price of vegetables has also increased, leading to a 10% rise in egg substitution demand [15][17]. Cost and Profitability - Feed costs remain high, with corn and soybean meal prices at elevated levels, resulting in a production cost of approximately 3.11 yuan per pound of eggs. Current market prices allow for a small profit of 0.18 yuan per pound, indicating a recovery from previous losses [6][23][24]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment is bullish, driven by low inventory and strong demand, with expectations for egg prices to remain strong in the short term. However, there is caution regarding potential price corrections after the peak demand period [28][29]. Institutional Perspectives - Various institutions have differing views on the market outlook, with some expecting strong performance in the second quarter while others caution about the overall supply being still ample, suggesting a range for trading [26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current egg market is in a process of digesting inventory at a low level, and there is a possibility of a seasonal small increase in late March under normal circumstances [9]. - The near - term egg futures contracts are mainly suppressed by spot prices, while the far - term contracts are less affected by spot prices. With the expected increase in feed costs and inflation expectations, the far - term egg futures may be more favored by bulls. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity to lay out long positions during the peak season in the second half of the year and conduct rolling operations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Review**: The national egg price oscillated today. The average price in the main production areas was 3.13 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, unchanged from yesterday. The 04 contract fell 0.46%. The 2604 contract closed at 3254, down 15 points or 0.46%; the 2605 contract closed at 3382, down 37 points or 1.08%; the 2606 contract closed at 3208, down 25 points or 0.77% [7][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions during the peak season in the second half of the year and conduct rolling operations [9]. 3.2行业要闻 - **Inventory**: As of the end of February, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.35 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, ending the continuous decline for four months. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 3.4% [10]. - **Replenishment**: In February, the monthly output of layer chicks of sample enterprises was about 43.3 million, close to that in January and slightly less than that in the same period in 2025. It is a medium - to - high monthly replenishment volume in the past eight years [10]. 3.3数据概览 - **Elimination Volume**: As of March 12, the national chicken elimination volume in the previous three weeks was 8.78 million, 10.94 million, and 12.6 million respectively, showing a continuous upward trend [18]. - **Elimination Age**: As of March 12, the average elimination age of chickens was 505 days, 3 days later than last week and 9 days earlier than last month, indicating that the elimination rhythm has slowed down slightly recently [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the egg price showed a narrow - range slight increase. The closing price of the 2605 contract was 3433 yuan per 500 kilograms, a rise of 44 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The supply side has a relatively high inventory, and the elimination of old chickens has been slow recently, resulting in sufficient overall supply. The demand side is still in the post - holiday off - season, and the spot price maintains a low - level oscillation. However, with schools fully reopened, factories resuming work, and the early start of Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, the off - season demand has been significantly boosted. The feed cost is relatively stable, and the overall atmosphere in the breeding sector is better than previously expected. The egg futures market maintains an oscillating trend, and short - term participation is recommended [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The egg price showed a narrow - range slight increase. The closing price of the 2605 contract was 3433 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 44 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply side has high inventory and slow old - chicken elimination, with sufficient overall supply. The demand side is in the post - holiday off - season, and the spot price is low. But due to school openings, factory resumptions, and early Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, the off - season demand is boosted. The feed cost is stable, and the breeding atmosphere is better than expected. The egg futures market oscillates, and short - term participation is advisable [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures May contract closed higher with an oscillating trend. The trading volume was 168,259 lots, a decrease of 7,504 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 was +669, compared with +1784 last week, showing a slight decrease in net long positions [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 7 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3127 yuan per 500 kilograms, a rise of 156 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the May active contract futures price and the spot average price was - 306 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The spread between the May and July egg futures contracts was - 53 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a medium level in the same period [27]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of March 12, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was 16.5 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.94 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side Indicators**: As of December 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The national new - chick index was 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. - **Laying - hen Elimination Indicators**: As of December 31, 2025, the national laying - hen elimination index was 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The national average age of eliminated chickens was 500 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of March 12, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2440.39 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3350 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of March 6, 2026, the breeding profit per laying hen was - 0.35 yuan, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.80 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Prices of Laying - hen Chicks and Eliminated Chickens**: As of March 6, 2026, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.5 yuan per chick, and the average price of eliminated chickens was 9.88 yuan per kilogram [58]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In December 2025, China's total egg exports were 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 2767.32 tons compared to the same period last year (12,131.40 tons), a year - on - year increase of 22.81%, and an increase of 1853.21 tons compared to the previous month (13,045.52 tons) [64]. 3.4 Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: The report shows the company's price - to - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis is provided [66].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the good profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg prices have weakened the overall reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3680, up 3 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3412, down 15; JD09 closed at 3835, down 17 [2]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was 268, up 18; the 05 - 09 spread was - 423, up 2; the 09 - 01 spread was 155, down 20 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, up 0.00; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.20, up 0.01. Similar data are provided for 05 and 09 contracts [2]. 2. Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.27 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 5.11 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin [2][7]. 3. Fundamental Information - **Egg Prices and Market Conditions**: The national mainstream egg prices were mixed. Beijing's egg prices rose, and the prices in different regions showed various trends, with the market in a state of oscillatory consolidation and normal sales [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, higher than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in February was about 43.3 million (about 50% of the national total), with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4]. - **Culled Chicken Data**: In the week of March 5th, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of March 5th, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5]. - **Profit Situation**: As of the week of March 5th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 27th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.85 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.27 yuan/feather from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of the week of March 5th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [6][7]. 4. Trading Logic - The good early - stage profit has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season and the recent good egg prices, the overall reduction has weakened. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. 5. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Strategy**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Option Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction in the egg market last week was the serious mismatch between supply and demand rhythms after the Spring Festival. The supply pressure increased due to high laying - hen inventory, released holiday stockpiles, and rising egg - laying rates, while demand dropped sharply. As a result, egg prices fell rapidly, and the industry turned from profit to loss [1]. - The near - month contracts have a basis repair drive, but the upside is restricted by actual supply - demand pressure. The short - term supply remains high, but cost support limits the downside of near - month contracts. The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [3]. - As the spot price falls, farmers are more willing to cull old chickens. Market expectations are that festival备货 in the second and third quarters will boost demand. Rising chick prices have spurred farmers' restocking intentions, which may affect egg production in 4 - 5 months [9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradiction - The egg market last week had a "strong supply, weak demand" pattern. High laying - hen inventory, released holiday stockpiles, and rising egg - laying rates increased supply, while reduced food factory purchases, fewer group - meal orders, and traders' inventory digestion led to a sharp drop in demand. Egg prices fell, and the industry turned from profit to loss [1]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: After the Spring Festival, egg demand weakened, and high laying - hen inventory led to loose supply, suppressing the futures price. - **Price Range**: The price will fluctuate between 3300 - 3600. - **Unilateral Strategy**: Enter a long position with a light position when the price drops to around 3300 and exit with a profit when it reaches around 3600. - **Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for the basis strategy [8]. 1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - **Egg Price Range Forecast**: The main contract price is predicted to be between 2800 - 3400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.35% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 29.77%. - **Risk Management Strategies for Egg Enterprises**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting futures, selling call options, buying put options, etc., with specific contract recommendations, trading directions, recommended ratios, and entry intervals [10]. Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: By early March, egg losses per catty widened to 0.35 yuan, and the egg price was below the cost line. Feed costs rose slightly, and farmers' reluctance to sell provided bottom support. Based on previous chick sales, the laying - hen inventory in the second quarter of 2026 is expected to decline, supporting the long - term contracts. Low restocking in the second half of 2025 means fewer newly - laying hens in March - April. If the culling of old chickens accelerates, the medium - term laying - hen inventory will decline, improving supply - demand expectations [11]. - **Negative Information**: In February, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.296 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.62% and a year - on - year increase of 5.28%. The production and circulation inventories were high, and the market faced great pressure to sell off stocks [11]. 2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Pay attention to the egg quotes in the sales areas [12]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the main egg 04 contract opened at 3429 yuan/500KG at the beginning of the week and closed at 3389 yuan/500KG at the end of the week, a 1.17% decline. The open interest was 176,000 contracts, an increase of 32,739 contracts from last week [15]. 3.2 Basis and Spread Structure Analysis - **Spread Structure**: The egg spread shows a contango structure. - **Basis Structure**: After the end of the stocking demand, the decline in the egg spot price was greater than that of the futures price, causing the basis to shrink [17][19]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Profit Tracking of the Industry Chain - The egg - chicken farming profit is gradually turning into a loss due to price drops, and farmers' willingness to cull chickens is increasing. This week's farming profit decreased compared to last week. Feed prices remained stable, and corn prices fluctuated at a high level, with the farming cost remaining the same [22]. Chapter 5: This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 5.1 Supply - Side Situation - **Laying - Hen Inventory**: In February, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.296 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.62%. The proportion of main - laying hens increased, while the proportions of reserve and to - be - culled hens decreased. The egg - laying rate remained the same [25]. - **Chick Situation**: In February, chick sales increased slightly. The total sales of commercial chicks from 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information were about 43.3 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.185% [27]. - **Chicken Culling Situation**: There is no detailed information about the chicken culling situation in the text. 5.2 Consumption Situation - This week, the egg sales in the main sales areas increased compared to last week, and the egg arrivals at the Guangdong wholesale market increased [32]. 5.3 Inventory Situation - This week, the production and circulation inventories are in the inventory - consumption stage, with available inventory days of 1.31 days and 1.45 days respectively [34].

Group 1: Report Summary - The egg market showed a narrow - range fluctuation this week. The closing price of the 2605 contract was 3389 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 40 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week [6]. - The supply side has high inventory, slow old - hen culling, and sufficient overall supply. The demand side is in the post - holiday off - season, with weak terminal consumption and average sales after the Lantern Festival stocking, resulting in low - level oscillation of spot prices [6]. - With enterprises resuming work and production, the market sales have slightly improved. The breeding side has again fallen into losses, which may promote the acceleration of old - hen culling, leading to significant differences in market sentiment. Although the futures price has rebounded slightly in the past two days, the high - inventory pressure still exists, so it is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Top 20 Positions - The egg futures May contract fluctuated up and down, with a position of 175,763 hands, an increase of 32,739 hands compared to before the holiday. The net position of the top 20 was + 1784, and last week's net position was + 2120, with little change in net long positions [13]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipt volume was 0 [17]. Spot Price and Basis - The egg spot price was reported at 2971 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 59 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the active May contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 418 yuan per ton [23]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The spread between the May and July egg futures was reported at - 107 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. Related Commodity Spot Prices - As of March 5, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.2 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was reported at 5.12 yuan per kilogram [33]. Group 3: Industrial Chain Supply - Side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm - As of December 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was reported at 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The national new - chick index was reported at 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. Culling Index and Culling Age - As of December 31, 2025, the national culling laying - hen index was reported at 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The national culling age was 500 days [44]. Feed Raw Material Prices - As of March 5, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2413.73 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3060 yuan per ton [48]. Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of February 27, 2026, the egg - chicken breeding profit was reported at - 0.49 yuan per chicken, and the average price of egg - chicken compound feed was reported at 2.80 yuan per kilogram [54]. Egg - Chicken Chick and Culled - Chicken Prices - As of February 27, 2026, the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main production areas was reported at 3.3 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was reported at 8.86 yuan per kilogram [58]. Egg Monthly Export Volume - In December 2025, the total egg export volume was 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 2,767.32 tons compared to the same period last year (12,131.40 tons), a year - on - year increase of 22.81%, and a month - on - month increase of 1853.21 tons compared to the previous month (13,045.52 tons) [63]. Group 4: Representative Company Xiaoming Co., Ltd. - The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd., with data sourced from wind [65].

1. Report Information - Report Date: February 27, 2026 [2] - Industry: Eggs [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price in the main production areas has stabilized, with the average price at 2.90 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas at 3.14 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The 04 contract fell 0.67%. [8] - After the holiday, the egg price showed a seasonal decline. After the market opened, the prices in the production areas basically fell below 3 yuan. However, the futures market performed relatively well. It is expected that the near - month contracts will fluctuate in a range, and the far - month contracts need to pay attention to the situation of replenishment and culling. [8] - The current egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level in the same period of history, but the replenishment momentum is weak, which may ease the medium - term production capacity pressure. [9] 3. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Egg 2603 | 2976 | 2974 | 2983 | 2940 | 2947 | - 29 | - 0.97% | 17952 | 18617 | - 13437 | | Egg 2604 | 3261 | 3265 | 3272 | 3220 | 3239 | - 22 | - 0.67% | 161235 | 166035 | - 10367 | | Egg 2605 | 3439 | 3444 | 3445 | 3395 | 3413 | - 26 | - 0.76% | 71888 | 134935 | 12278 | [7] Operation Suggestions - Near - month contracts: Treat them as range - bound for now. The basis of the 03 and 04 contracts is at a medium level in the same period of previous years. The sharp decline before the Spring Festival has already factored in the bearish expectations, but the rise of futures needs the support of spot prices. [8] - Far - month contracts: The contracts in the first half of the year, especially the 06 contract in the rainy season, should be treated bearishly on rallies. The contracts in the second half of the year can be treated optimistically due to the unfalsifiable expectation of inventory reduction. [8] 4. Industry News Inventory As of the end of December 2025, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China was about 1.344 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.00%. [9] Replenishment In December 2025, the monthly output of egg - laying chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.59 million, basically the same as that in November. The total replenishment volume from September to December 2025 was about 157.49 million, significantly less than about 182.14 million in the same period of the previous year, which may ease the medium - term production capacity pressure. [9] Culling - Culling volume: In the three weeks as of January 29, the culling volumes were 16.03 million, 16.27 million, and 17.33 million respectively, remaining at a relatively high level but slightly declining. [18] - Culling age: As of January 29, the average culling age was 493 days, 3 days later than the previous week and 9 days later than the previous month. [18]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: February 26, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **Contract 2603**: Previous settlement price was 2984, opening price was 2973, highest price was 2989, lowest price was 2969, closing price was 2971, down 13 points or -0.44%, with a trading volume of 24425 and an open interest of 32054, a decrease of 6873 [7] - **Contract 2604**: Previous settlement price was 3260, opening price was 3255, highest price was 3276, lowest price was 3244, closing price was 3268, up 8 points or 0.25%, with a trading volume of 132866 and an open interest of 176402, an increase of 4284 [7] - **Contract 2605**: Previous settlement price was 3450, opening price was 3430, highest price was 3458, lowest price was 3423, closing price was 3443, down 7 points or -0.20%, with a trading volume of 73046 and an open interest of 122657, an increase of 12009 [7] Operational Suggestions - The national egg price stabilized today. The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, unchanged from yesterday. The 04 contract rose 0.25% [8] - During the holiday, the egg price showed a seasonal decline. After the market opened, the prices in the production areas basically fell below 3 yuan, mostly around 2.75 - 2.8 yuan, and the lowest price in Hebei was around 2.56 yuan. However, the futures market performed relatively well after the holiday. In previous years, there was usually a period of weak adjustment in the spot market after the eighth day of the first lunar month, but this year, the prices in most areas have stabilized. One reason is that the price dropped significantly before the Spring Festival, providing some support after the festival. The other reason is that the absolute price of eggs after the festival is relatively low, leaving little room for further significant decline [8] - In the future, attention should be paid to whether the egg price will stabilize. The basis of the 03 and 04 contracts is at a medium level compared to the same period in previous years. The significant decline before the Spring Festival has already factored in the bearish expectations, but the rise of the futures price still depends on the performance of the spot market. For now, the near - term contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range [8] - The far - term contracts were weak today. Future attention should be paid to the situation of chick replenishment and hen culling. It is expected that the culling process will be反复. In the first half of the year, there is no need to be overly optimistic about the off - season contracts. Especially for the 06 contract during the rainy season, it is advisable to take a short - selling approach on rallies. For the peak - season contracts in the second half of the year, due to the difficult - to - disprove expectation of inventory reduction, they can be viewed more optimistically [8] Group 3: Industry News Inventory - As of the end of December 2025, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.344 billion, down 0.59% month - on - month, having declined slightly for two consecutive months. However, compared with the same period last year (1.28 billion), the year - on - year increase was still 5.00% [9] Chick Replenishment - In December 2025, the monthly output of day - old chicks of sample enterprises was about 39.59 million, basically the same as that in November (39.55 million), but significantly less than the 45.98 million in the same period in 2024. The total replenishment volume in the past four months (September - December 2025) was about 157.49 million, compared with about 182.14 million in the same period last year, indicating that the medium - term production capacity pressure may continue to ease [9] Group 4: Data Overview Culling Volume - Recently, the culling volume has remained relatively high but has slightly declined. As of January 29, the culling volumes in the previous three weeks were 16.03 million, 16.27 million, and 17.33 million respectively [18] Culling Age - Recently, the culling age has been postponed. As of January 29, the average culling age was 493 days, 3 days later than last week and 9 days later than last month [18]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an agricultural product research report focusing on the egg market, dated February 11, 2026, written by researcher Liu Qiannan [1]. Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3787, up 6 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3375, up 11; JD09 closed at 3797, down 37 [2]. - The 01 - 05 spread was 412, down 5; 05 - 09 spread was -422, up 48; 09 - 01 spread was 10, down 43 [2]. - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.66, down 0.01; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.28, down 0.01. Similar declines were seen in other contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average price in the main producing areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, unchanged, and in the main selling areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, also unchanged [2][4]. - The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged [2][5]. Profit Calculation - The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 [2]. - The profit per chicken was 12.82 yuan, down 0.05 from the previous day [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Information - The national mainstream egg price remained stable. Beijing's egg prices were reported as stable, and prices in other regions were mostly stable with some fluctuations [4]. - In January, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.344 billion, down 0.08 billion from the previous month but up 5% year - on - year, lower than expected. The monthly chick output of sample enterprises (about 50% of the national total) was 43.22 million, up 9% month - on - month and little changed year - on - year [4]. - From February 6, the weekly culled - hen slaughter in the main producing areas was 16.55 million, up 2% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 495 days, up 2 days [5]. - As of February 5, the weekly egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7210 tons, down 2.3% from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [5]. - As of February 5, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.52 yuan, down 0.14 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 6, the expected profit of laying - hen farming was - 12.65 yuan/hen, down 0.37 yuan/jin from the previous week [5]. - As of February 5, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, up 0.05 days, and in the circulation link was 1.07 days, up 0.02 days [5]. Group 4: Trading Logic - As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stocking is almost over. Due to the previous good profit situation, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the upcoming off - peak consumption season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has eased, the overall reduction has weakened recently due to the good egg price. It is recommended to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [6]. Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the egg price fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 98 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - The previous low level of replenishment means that the current pressure of newly - opened production is not high, and the laying - hen inventory is still in a declining trend. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level. The previous high enthusiasm for market stocking led to a significant increase in egg prices and improved breeding profits, which increased the enthusiasm for chick replenishment and slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for old - hen culling, weakening the expectation of inventory decline [6]. - Affected by the recent decline in spot prices and high inventory pressure, the futures price continued to weaken this week, adding market volatility. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - The 2603 contract of eggs closed lower with a price of 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 98 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The laying - hen inventory is expected to decline, but high current inventory, improved breeding profits, increased chick - replenishment enthusiasm and slowed - down old - hen culling weaken this decline expectation. It is recommended to participate in the short - term due to price volatility [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price Trend and Top 20 Positions - The 3 - month contract of egg futures closed lower with a trading volume of 149,120 lots, a decrease of 51,367 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 changed from a net long of +2,490 to a net short of - 11,114 [13]. 3.2.2 Weekly Egg Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs was 0 [17]. 3.2.3 Egg Spot Price and Basis Trend - The egg spot price was reported at 3450 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 661 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active 3 - month contract futures price and the spot average price was +546 yuan per ton [23]. 3.2.4 Egg Futures Inter - monthly Spread Change - The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 520 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a low level in the same period [27]. 3.2.5 Related Commodity Spot Price Trends - As of February 5, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 18.48 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.5 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm - As of December 31, 2025, the laying - hen inventory index nationwide was reported at 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The new - chick index nationwide was reported at 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. 3.3.2 Culled Laying - Hen Index and Culling Age - As of December 31, 2025, the culled laying - hen index nationwide was reported at 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The culling age of hens nationwide was reported at 500 days [44]. 3.3.3 Feed Raw Material Price Trends - As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2368.82 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3100 yuan per ton [48]. 3.3.4 Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of January 30, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at 0.3 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.84 yuan per kilogram [54]. 3.3.5 Laying - Hen Chick and Culled - Hen Prices - As of January 30, 2026, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas was reported at 3.2 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was reported at 9.44 yuan per kilogram [58]. 3.3.6 Monthly Egg Export Volume - In December 2025, China's total egg export volume was 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 2767.32 tons compared to 12,131.40 tons in the same period of the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 22.81%. It was a month - on - month increase of 1853.21 tons compared to 13,045.52 tons in the previous month [63]. 3.4 Representative Enterprises - Information about the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is provided, but no specific analysis is given [65].