行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 8 月 25 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market continued to decline this week. The closing price of the 2510 contract was 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 149 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - Currently, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishments is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous release of cold - storage eggs further increases the supply pressure [8]. - Terminal demand is weak. High - temperature weather makes the market cautious, and demand is sluggish. To reduce inventory, breeding enterprises are more willing to sell at low prices, causing the spot market price to continuously fall short of expectations, and the breeding end has been in a loss state [8]. - With the start of school - opening stockpiling and the Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. However, due to weak spot prices and high - production capacity pressure, the futures price generally maintains a weak trend [8]. - The strategy recommendation is to participate in a bearish manner [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The egg price continued to decline this week. The 2510 contract closed at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 149 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - **Supply Situation**: High laying - hen inventory, large pressure from newly - opened laying hens, and continuous release of cold - storage eggs increase supply pressure [8]. - **Demand Situation**: Terminal demand is weak, and high - temperature weather makes the market cautious. However, demand is expected to improve with school - opening stockpiling and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in a bearish manner [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The 10 - contract of egg futures continued to decline, with a position of 434,281 lots, an increase of 118,589 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 42,652, and the net short position increased compared to last week [14]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 3 [18]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3057 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 9 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 24 yuan per ton [24]. - **Futures Inter - Month Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of egg futures was - 218 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of August 21, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.03 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.89 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%, and the national new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [40]. - **Laying - Hen Elimination Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national elimination - laying - hen index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%, and the national elimination - hen age was 512 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2373.53 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3000 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of August 15, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was - 0.26 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [55]. - **Laying - Hen Chick and Elimination - Hen Prices**: As of August 15, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of elimination hens was 10.94 yuan per kilogram [60]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 7.87%, and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons compared to the previous month [65].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure in the egg market this year is significant, with the peak - season price callback reaching nearly 0.5 yuan/jin, compared to the usual 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/jin. The logic of price increase during the peak season is weakening, causing continuous declines in near - month contracts. The near - month 09 contract has squeezed out the premium and fallen below 3200 points. The futures market sentiment is extremely low. The near - month contracts may still be bearish in the long - term, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter if the low egg prices are reflected in subsequent replenishment data [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2509, 2510, and 2511 all declined. The 2509 contract fell 2.91% to 3098, the 2510 contract fell 2.51% to 3113, and the 2511 contract fell 2.64% to 3208. The national egg price rose, with the average price in the main production areas at 3.28 yuan/jin and in the main sales areas at 3.47 yuan/jin, both up 0.17 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The peak - season price increase logic has weakened due to supply pressure and cold - storage egg outflows. The near - month 09 contract has squeezed out the premium. The futures market sentiment is low. The near - month contracts may be bearish in the long - term, and long - position opportunities are risky. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens**: The inventory of in - production laying hens is on the rise. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory was about 1.356 billion, a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, down from 40.75 million in June and 41.68 million in the same period in 2024. The decline in July was the first year - on - year decrease this year [9]. - **Hen Culling**: From the first to the third week of August 14, the national hen culling volume showed a downward trend, and the current absolute value is close to the level of the previous three years. As of August 14, the average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week and one day later than last month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the basis of the egg 09 contract, the price difference between the egg 09 and 10 contracts, the average price in the main production areas, the seasonal trend of the egg 09 contract, the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, and the egg - chicken breeding profit [12][13][16].

Report Overview - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Egg Weekly Report 2025 - 8 - 18 [2] - Research Group: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - Supply: Bearish [3] - Demand: Neutral [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Neutral [3] - Strategy: Bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of culled chickens from sample breeding enterprises continued to decline, the culling age fluctuated slightly, the price difference between large and small eggs oscillated at a high level, and the price of chicks continued to drop [3] - The high price difference between large and small eggs and the relatively strong price of culled chickens indicate more new additions and fewer culls, which may suppress the price elasticity in the traditional consumption peak season [3] - This year, the capacity reduction is insufficient, the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is premature, and the egg - laying rate decline due to high temperature is getting smaller, so the rebound momentum in the peak season is limited [3] - This week, the sales volume in the main sales areas and the shipping volume in the main production areas decreased slightly, and the inventory in the circulation and production links also decreased slightly [3] - Traders are afraid of price drops, purchase cautiously, and the overall sales in the production areas are a bit slow [3] - The breeding profit has rebounded slightly and is near the break - even point, and the egg - feed ratio is at the lowest level in the same period of the past 4 years [3] - The egg futures contracts in the delivery month are slightly at a discount, while the other contracts are slightly at a premium [3] - The price difference between the near and far - term egg futures has dropped significantly and is at a moderately high level [3] - Due to the change of the main contract of egg futures, the net short position of institutions in September decreased, while that in October increased [3] - Under the background of high inventory, the near - term supply pressure is large, and the far - term situation will gradually improve with the strengthening of capacity reduction expectations [3] - Before the capacity is cleared due to breeding losses, the pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength of egg futures is expected to continue, and it is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of egg 9 - 1 [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - Sub - sections include spot price (comparison between main production area price and main sales area price), egg basis (basis of each egg futures contract), egg price difference (price difference of each egg futures contract), and futures institutional net position (long - to - short ratio of institutional positions in September and October egg futures contracts) [4][7][10][13] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects such as egg - laying hen inventory and its structure, culling situation (culled chicken price and average culling age), replenishment situation (price of commercial egg - laying chicks and hatching egg utilization rate), and size - code situation (prices of large and small eggs and seasonal chart of price difference) [16][18][20][23] Demand Analysis - Includes发货量&销量 (sales volume in main sales areas and shipping volume in main production areas), inventory (production - link inventory and circulation - link inventory), and substitutes (seasonal charts of egg - to - pork price ratio and egg - to - vegetable price ratio) [26][28][31] Profit Analysis - Comprises breeding profit (current profit vs. expected profit and comprehensive egg - laying hen breeding profit) and egg - feed ratio (egg - feed ratio and its break - even point, and seasonal chart of egg - feed ratio) [34][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market has continued to decline this week, with the 2510 contract closing at 3,182 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 75 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - Currently, the egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened egg - laying hens from previous supplementary stocking is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous release of cold - storage eggs further exacerbates the supply pressure [8]. - Terminal demand is weak. High - temperature weather has increased the substitutes for egg consumption, leading to low market demand for eggs. To reduce inventory, breeding enterprises are more willing to sell at low prices, causing the spot market price to continuously fall short of expectations, and the breeding end has been in a loss state [8]. - With the start of school opening stockpiling and the Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. In the near - term contracts, the futures prices generally maintain a weak trend under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity, while the long - term contracts are relatively more resistant to decline [8]. - The recommended strategy is to participate in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - The 2510 contract of eggs continued to decline, closing at 3,182 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 75 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the pressure of newly - opened egg - laying hens is large. Cold - storage eggs are continuously released, increasing supply pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and substitutes for egg consumption are increasing. The spot price is lower than expected, and the breeding end is in a loss state [8]. - With school opening stockpiling and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement, demand may pick up, potentially driving up egg prices. Near - term contracts tend to be weak, while long - term contracts are relatively resistant to decline [8]. - The recommended strategy is short - term participation [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 10 - contract continued to decline, with a position of 315,692 lots, an increase of 110,551 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 33,540, and the net short position increased compared to last week [14]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 3 [18]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3,066 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 180 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 116 yuan per ton [24]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of eggs was reported at - 393 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of August 14, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.23 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 4.74 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side Indicators**: As of June 30, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was 111.91, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The national new - chick index was 76.07, a month - on - month decrease of 28.76% [40]. - **Elimination Indicators**: As of June 30, 2025, the national eliminated egg - laying hen index was 104.09, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22%. The national average age of eliminated chickens was 501 days [45]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 14, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3,020 yuan per ton [49]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of August 8, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.31 yuan per chicken, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.70 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Prices of Egg - laying Chicken Chicks and Eliminated Chickens**: As of August 8, 2025, the average price of egg - laying chicken chicks in the main producing areas was 3.85 yuan per chick, and the average price of eliminated chickens in the main producing areas was 11.34 yuan per kilogram [60]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In May 2025, China's total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons or 7.87% year - on - year compared to 11,784.06 tons in the same period of the previous year, and a decrease of 81.14 tons month - on - month compared to 12,792.51 tons in the previous month [66]. 3.4. Representative Enterprise - A simple introduction to Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is provided, but specific content mainly shows the change in its price - earnings ratio, and no in - depth analysis is given [68].

Group 1: Report Overview - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Egg futures contracts 2509, 2510, and 2511 all declined, with the 2509 contract dropping 3.02%, the 2510 contract falling 2.69%, and the 2511 contract decreasing 1.62% [7] - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.08 yuan/jin, up 0.18 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin from the previous day [7] Core View - The egg price dropped significantly last week, and the supply pressure this year is large. The spot price in August is expected to have a second wave of increase, but the upper limit has been lowered [8] - The futures market has factored in the expectation of a second - wave increase in the peak season. The 09 contract still has a premium of about 400 points over the spot average price [8] Operation Suggestions - If the spot price stabilizes and rises next week, the futures may be slightly stronger, and the basis may be narrowed by the way of spot price rising and futures price stabilizing [8] - Long - position investors can appropriately participate in bottom - fishing for the fourth - quarter contracts, but should operate in stages and not be overly greedy [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9] - In July, the monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, a decrease compared with June and the same period in 2024 [9] - The chicken culling volume has been gradually decreasing since June, and the current average age of culled chickens is 506 days [10] Group 4: Data Overview - The data sources include Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen [14][17][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market is currently characterized by high overall production capacity, with a slowdown in recent new replenishment. The supply - side pressure is gradually weakening, while the demand has improved but the marginal support is weakening, requiring new demand from tourism and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. - The cost of feed has slightly declined, with the current feed cost around 2.5 yuan per catty and the comprehensive breeding cost around 2.8 yuan per catty. Egg prices have returned above the feed breeding cost seasonally, and profits have improved. - The spot market will still receive seasonal demand support after a short - term release of the decline sentiment, but the futures premium is obvious, and it is difficult to follow the spot rebound. As the delivery month approaches, the main 09 contract may decline to repair the basis, and attention should be paid to reverse spread opportunities. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Review - Last week, egg futures maintained a weak oscillation, and the overall weakness remained unchanged. The biggest contradiction in the market is the large basis, with obvious selling pressure and weak willingness to take delivery. [6] Spot Review - Last week, egg spot prices maintained a weak adjustment and stabilized over the weekend. The sales areas started to sell at low prices, and the market began to accept the goods. After this round of adjustment, the spot prices will be supported by the start of school for students and Mid - Autumn Festival deep - processing stocking. Attention should be paid to the rebound height. [13] Supply - Newly - added capacity: From August to November 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from April to July 2025, and the newly - added capacity will decline significantly. - Elimination capacity: From August to November 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from March to June 2024. The data shows a high elimination volume, but the current data indicates obvious delayed elimination. - Laying hen inventory: The inventory data continues to increase slightly, but it will start to decrease in September. The newly - added capacity is stable with a slight decline, and the elimination is relatively slow. The overall supply pressure still exists. [16] Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens is 5.51 yuan per catty (- 0.27). The elimination volume has significantly decreased. The peak season and a slight price rebound limit the enthusiasm for elimination. The average elimination age is 502 days, remaining unchanged, and the overall age has reached the normal range, but the elimination of backward production capacity is not ideal. [19] Seasonal Factors - It is the seasonal peak season. On the production area side, the inventory pressure in the production areas has increased, high temperatures have reduced the laying rate and increased costs. On the consumption side, the arrival of the tourism peak season combined with deep - processing has improved the overall demand. [21] Cost & Profit - Cost side: Corn prices are running at a high level, and soybean meal prices have steadily declined. The overall cost remains volatile. The current feed cost is around 2.5 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is around 2.8 yuan per catty. - Breeding profit: Recently, egg prices have risen, and the spot price has returned above the feed cost. However, the overall comprehensive breeding profit is still in a loss, showing a seasonal bottom - rebounding trend. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback on backward production capacity. [27] Capital and Market - Capital has increased at a high level, and market competition has intensified. Bears believe that the production capacity is high, there is seasonal suppression, and the futures premium over the spot still has room to decline. Bulls believe that the valuation is low, and the seasonality is about to turn from weak to strong, making it valuable to go long. Currently, the reality is stronger than expectations, with obvious futures premium over the spot and obvious selling pressure in the market, waiting for the cycle conversion. [30] Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis is negative, and the overall futures are at a premium. The current basis is running at a low level, waiting for the basis to strengthen with the arrival of the peak season, which is more likely to be achieved through a decline in futures prices. - Spread: It shows that supply exceeds demand. The near - month contracts in the market are constantly repairing the basis through price declines, and the far - month contracts face the expectation of reduced production capacity, with a focus on reverse spread operations. [32][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The Ih2509 contract for live pigs is in a phase of downward oscillation, with the price center expected to decline later. The supply of live pigs is increasing due to a persistently high inventory of breeding sows and improved production performance. Although demand is expected to seasonally increase in the second half of 2025, the impact of economic slowdown and changing consumer preferences may limit the boost. Therefore, the rebound space for pig prices is limited, and they will remain under pressure overall. However, due to policy disturbances, strong market sentiment, and the approaching peak season, short - term pig prices may be strong, but the upside space is limited under sufficient supply. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound. For industrial chain participants, breeding enterprises can sell futures for hedging to lock in sales prices, and food enterprises can purchase as needed and buy call options to control procurement costs while selling out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums [3]. - The jd2509 contract for eggs is also in a phase of downward oscillation, with the price center expected to decline. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year - on - year, and supply pressure continues to weigh. Demand has seasonal changes within the year, but limited by the macro - economy and consumer preferences, the expected fluctuation range is limited. Considering cost and profit, the price of eggs is expected to remain at a low level. The demand for the 09 contract is in the declining phase after the peak season, and with high supply, there is insufficient support. It is recommended to short on rallies. For industrial chain participants, breeding enterprises can sell futures for hedging when egg prices are under pressure, and food enterprises can control procurement costs by buying call options and selling out - of - the - money put options [3]. Summary by Sections Live Pig Section - **Supply Analysis** - The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the official normal level of 30 million, indicating persistent over - capacity. The supply in 2025 will be at a high level, and attention should be paid to the impact of the farmers' slaughter rhythm on short - term supply [14]. - The average slaughter weight has slightly decreased but remains high. With the approaching of the autumn and winter peak season, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may gradually increase, and farmers are expected to slow down the slaughter rhythm, so the weight is unlikely to decline significantly [15]. - **Demand Analysis** - Currently, demand is in the off - season, and the slaughter volume remains low. In addition to actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage create short - term demand and provide support at low prices. Recently, most secondary fattening pigs are being sold, and attention should be paid to future changes in the secondary fattening rhythm [25]. - **Cost and Profit Analysis** - As of August 7, the breeding cost of large - scale farms using the self - breeding and self - raising model is 13.09 yuan/kg, and that of the purchased piglet model is 14.44 yuan/kg. Breeding enterprise profits are shrinking [35]. - The breeding capacity is relatively stable. Farmers are still cautious about the future market. Sow replenishment is mainly for replacement by large - scale farms, and the enthusiasm for purchasing piglets is average [36]. - **Policy Analysis** - The state's reserve purchase and release of pork regulate market supply and demand and ensure the stable operation of the live pig market. In the second - level early - warning range of excessive price decline, the National Development and Reform Commission will start the third batch of central pork reserve purchases this year [45]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis** - The report provides data on various spreads (such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, etc.) and basis for live pigs, showing their changes compared to the previous week [8]. Egg Section - **Supply Analysis** - The supply of eggs is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the laying rate. Since the second half of 2024, the enthusiasm for replenishment has been high, so the number of newly - laid hens will be high until the third quarter of this year. Meanwhile, the number of culled hens is relatively limited, so the inventory of laying hens will remain at a relatively high level until the third quarter [64]. - In the short term, the laying rate is seasonally low, and the number of culled old hens has increased recently, but the overall supply is still abundant [65]. - Due to the weakening of feed prices, the breeding cost of eggs has decreased, currently around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [66]. - **Demand Analysis** - In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population structure, economic development, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend in recent years. In the medium - and short - term, egg demand has obvious seasonality, with short - term peaks before traditional festivals. Currently, demand is seasonally rebounding, and food factories are starting to stock up [76]. - Although the improvement in supply and the rebound in demand support the stability of spot prices, the overall supply remains high, and the price of the JD2509 contract is expected to be under pressure as it is in the post - festival period [77]. - **Inventory Analysis** - Data on the inventory days of fresh eggs in the production and circulation links are provided, showing their changes over time [84]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis** - The report provides data on various spreads (such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, etc.) and basis for eggs, showing their changes compared to the previous week [85].

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The industry under research is the egg industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, egg prices dropped significantly. The peak - season spot price started to rise around July 10th this year, later than usual. Market pressure emerged in late July, and the cold - stored eggs' release hit the market. The current correction in egg prices is about 0.5 yuan/jin on average, greater than the usual range of 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/jin, indicating high supply pressure [8] - Most产区 prices stabilized on Thursday and Friday this week. As it is still the summer peak season and there is an expectation of pre - holiday stockpiling in September, the spot price is expected to have a second wave of increase in August, but the upper limit has been adjusted downwards [8] - In the futures market, due to the sharp drop in the spot price last weekend, futures were notably weak in the first few trading days of this week. The near - month 09 contract hit a record low. The market has factored in the expectation of a second peak - season increase. The 09 contract is still at a premium of about 400 points over the spot average price. Considering packaging costs for delivery, it will face significant pressure when the spot price reaches around 3.6 yuan/jin [8] - If the spot price stabilizes and rises next week as expected, futures may be slightly stronger. Subsequently, the basis may be narrowed through the spot price rising while the futures price remains stable. The fourth - quarter contracts are also at historical lows, corresponding to a weak fundamental situation. Bulls can participate in bottom - fishing for the spot's second increase but should avoid over - staying in the market due to the medium - term bearish fundamentals [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2509 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3376, the opening price was 3393, the highest price was 3393, the lowest price was 3357, the closing price was 3362, down 14 points or 0.41%. The trading volume was 153,259, the open interest was 203,664, and the open interest increased by 862 [7] - For the 2510 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3288, the opening price was 3292, the highest price was 3304, the lowest price was 3253, the closing price was 3257, down 31 points or 0.94%. The trading volume was 98,643, the open interest was 205,141, and the open interest increased by 16,335 [7] - For the 2511 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3336, the opening price was 3340, the highest price was 3343, the lowest price was 3316, the closing price was 3326, down 10 points or 0.30%. The trading volume was 26,452, the open interest was 96,200, and the open interest increased by 917 [7] - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.90 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.17 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 09 contract declined by 0.41% [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: If the spot price stabilizes and rises next week as expected, futures may be slightly stronger. Bulls can participate in bottom - fishing for the fourth - quarter contracts but should operate in a phased manner due to the medium - term bearish fundamentals [8] 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on the rise. As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of laying hens in production was about 1.356 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9] - The monthly output of day - old chicks in sample enterprises in July was about 39.98 million, less than that in June (40.75 million) and in the same period of 2024 (41.68 million). It is a moderately high monthly replenishment volume in the past eight years. Due to low breeding profits in the past two months, farmers' enthusiasm for expanding production has wavered, and this was the first year - on - year decrease in replenishment volume in July [9][10] - The culling volume of laying hens in the first three weeks as of August 7th was 13.71 million, 13.01 million, and 13.38 million respectively. The culling volume has been decreasing since June, with a decline greater than the seasonal average. As of August 7th, the average culling age was 506 days, one day earlier than last week and two days later than last month [10]

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The spot price of eggs continued to fall over the weekend. The adjustment in the peak season this year was greater than expected. The short - term market downturn may continue, squeezing the premium of futures. Although there will be at least one wave of price increases in August according to historical patterns, the expected target is lowered to 3.6 - 3.8 yuan. It is not recommended to buy the dip in the 09 contract in the short term. The fourth - quarter contracts are currently at a historically low valuation, but it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm and entry timing, and it is advisable to conduct band operations [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2509 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3394, the opening price was 3359, the highest price was 3372, the lowest price was 3323, the closing price was 3330, down 64 or 1.89%, with a trading volume of 253,161 and an open interest of 227,835, a decrease of 4144. - For the 2510 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3258, the opening price was 3245, the highest price was 3266, the lowest price was 3242, the closing price was 3252, down 6 or 0.18%, with a trading volume of 94,484 and an open interest of 194,539, a decrease of 879. - For the 2511 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3335, the opening price was 3323, the highest price was 3352, the lowest price was 3318, the closing price was 3349, up 14 or 0.42%, with a trading volume of 30,860 and an open interest of 91,845, an increase of 3208. - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.95 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.25 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Do not buy the dip in the 09 contract in the short term. For the fourth - quarter contracts, it is advisable to conduct band operations and pay attention to the rhythm and entry timing [8]. 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9]. - The monthly output of day - old chicks in sample enterprises in July was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. This was the first year - on - year decrease in the monthly replenishment volume this year [9]. - From the first to the third week of July 31, the national chicken culling volumes were 13.01 million, 13.38 million, and 15.05 million respectively. The culling volume has been decreasing since June, and the decline rate is higher than the seasonal average. As of July 31, the average age of culled chickens was 507 days, one day later than the previous week and one day earlier than the previous month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides figures on the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg chicken farming profits, egg 08 contract basis, egg 08 - 09 spread, average price of eggs in the main producing areas, and egg 09 seasonal trends, with data sources including Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and others [16][14][11]