1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production remains high. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, the January main contract has given a certain premium. With the approaching of pre - holiday stockpiling, the downward space is relatively limited, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: JD01 closed at 3282, up 57 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3553, up 4; JD09 closed at 3944, up 22. The 01 - 05 spread was - 271, up 53; the 05 - 09 spread was - 391, down 18; the 09 - 01 spread was 662, down 35 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.46, up 0.02; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.07, unchanged. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.25, down 0.00. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.72, unchanged; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.34, up 0.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The main producing area average price was 2.94 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the main selling area average price was 3.12 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. Prices in different regions had a mix of increases and stability [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.81 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [2][6]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.81 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04; the price of laying hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The average price of corn was 2325 yuan/ton, up 8; the average price of bean meal was 3088 yuan/ton, unchanged; the laying hen compound feed was 2.55 yuan/jin, up 0.01 [2]. - **Profit**: The profit per feather was - 0.99 yuan, up 1.39 from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price Trends**: The main producing area average price increased slightly, and the main selling area average price remained stable. The national mainstream prices had a mix of increases and stability, with egg prices continuing to fluctuate and consolidate, and normal sales [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The estimated inventory from November 2025 to February 2026 is 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - **Chicken Seedling and Culled Chicken Data**: In October, the monthly output of chicken seedlings from sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. In the week of November 21, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 20.21 million, an increase of 3.8% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 492 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales and Inventory**: As of the week of November 21, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7472 tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [6]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate within a short - term range. One can consider building long positions in the January contract at low prices [8]. - **Arbitrage and Option Strategies**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Industry: Eggs [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the weakest summer peak season in recent years, the spot market has gradually stabilized and rebounded. The current rebound is supported by increased elimination and seasonal demand, but supply pressure remains, and the upside of this rebound should not be overestimated. The futures market has made up for the gains due to the strong spot market over the weekend. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices. The fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter, and there may still be adjustment space in the short - to - medium term [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Over the weekend, national egg prices rose. The average price in the main production areas was 3.66 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.93 yuan/jin, up 0.22 yuan/jin. The 10 - contract rose 2.90%. The 2510 contract closed at 3126, up 88 or 2.90%; the 2511 contract closed at 3143, up 95 or 3.12%; the 2512 contract closed at 3245, up 70 or 2.20% [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider taking profits on long positions at high prices. The 10 - contract may enter the delivery month with a high discount. The upside of this rebound should not be overestimated, and the remaining time for spot price increases is about 1 week. Follow - up contract operations need to continuously monitor elimination and replenishment data. The fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter, and there may be adjustment space in the short - to - medium term [8] 2. Industry News - **In - Production Laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of August, the national monthly inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.365 billion, up from 1.356 billion at the end of July and 1.34 billion at the end of June, with a month - on - month increase of 0.7% and a year - on - year increase of 6.0% [9] - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In August, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.81 million, down from 39.98 million in July and significantly lower than 43.95 million in the same period in 2024 [9] - **Chicken Culling Volume**: As of September 4, the culling volumes in the previous three weeks were 16.76 million, 18.51 million, and 17.89 million respectively. The culling volume has been increasing since August, and the average culling age was 495 days, 1 day earlier than the previous week and 11 days earlier than the previous month [10]