Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview Real Estate Market - New home sales in core cities are still experiencing negative growth, while the second-hand housing market saw significant increases in transaction volume year-on-year and month-on-month due to early demand for school district properties and supply lagging behind, leading to a rise in both volume and price [1][3] - Anticipation for continued market heat in March, with April's performance dependent on policy support. A potential policy package similar to that of September 24, 2024, could signal a fundamental turning point in core urban areas by the end of 2026 [1][4] - Real estate stocks typically lead the fundamentals by 2-3 quarters, suggesting Q2 may be a good time to increase allocations [4] Construction and Building Materials - The construction and building materials sector is currently in a subdued state, with many projects halted due to the approaching Spring Festival and downstream demand not yet released [6] - Cement prices are continuously declining, with a recent drop of 0.8%. Glass demand is shrinking, and prices remain stable, while manufacturers of consumer building materials are promoting price increases [6][10] - The sector is at historical low levels, presenting opportunities for capital rebalancing [7] Express Delivery Industry - Domestic express delivery business saw a high growth rate of approximately 20% in January, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival. There is a noticeable divergence in growth rates among leading companies [8] - Jitu Express benefits from the rapid growth of TikTok in Southeast Asia and Latin America, predicting high growth in shipment volume for Q1 due to promotional activities [8] Oil Transportation Industry - Since August 2025, oil transportation rates have significantly increased due to improved supply-demand dynamics and tightening sanctions. The BDTI index has nearly doubled year-on-year as of February 2, 2026 [9][11] - The mid-term outlook suggests continued upward pressure on rates due to geopolitical events and sanctions, providing substantial earnings elasticity for companies in this sector [11] Chemical Logistics - Chemical prices have gradually recovered since late 2025, although they remain at five-year lows. The industry is expected to experience a recovery in trade activity and inventory digestion, leading to improved logistics conditions [12] Civil Aviation - Domestic civil aviation demand is robust, with January passenger volume increasing nearly 9% year-on-year. The Spring Festival period is expected to exceed historical peak levels for passenger volume [13][14] - The average ticket price has increased by 2.4% year-on-year, with a notable rise in pre-sale ticket prices expected in the coming weeks [13][14] Road Transportation - High-speed road freight throughput reached 241 million vehicles in January, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.8%. Predictions indicate significant population movement during the Spring Festival, with a projected increase in passenger volume [15] Key Recommendations - For real estate, focus on companies like China Merchants Shekou, New Town Holdings (A-shares), and China Resources Land (H-shares) [5] - In the construction sector, consider leading firms such as Yuhong, Sankeshu, Tubao, and China Jushi [7] - In the express delivery sector, maintain a watch on leading domestic companies and Jitu Express for overseas delivery [16] - For oil transportation, prioritize companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [11] - In the chemical logistics space, look at companies like Meikewei, Xingtong Co., and Hongtan Wisdom for potential performance rebounds [12] - In civil aviation, monitor the evolving pricing strategies of airlines as they shift towards price control [14]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that the Hong Kong government's upcoming policy address on September 17 is anticipated to potentially relax new capital investor entry plans, residential property stamp duties, and establish a home purchase fund plan [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - There are doubts regarding whether the government will introduce all measures at once, and if the policies are weaker than expected, real estate stocks may experience short-term profit-taking after the policy address [1] - Historically, if the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut aligns with expectations, Hong Kong real estate stocks tend to underperform the market [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Despite short-term uncertainties, Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on the local real estate sector for the next year, suggesting investors take advantage of lower prices [1] - Among developers, the report expresses a favorable view on Henderson Land and Sino Land [1] - For rental stocks, it recommends Swire Properties and Link REIT for investors with lower risk appetites, while also noting significant upside potential for Hang Lung Properties and Wharf Real Estate Investment Company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of ETFs and highlights the trend of fixed income investors maintaining positions in real estate stocks despite market fluctuations [1] Group 1: ETF Evolution - The article outlines the increasing popularity of ETFs as investment vehicles, particularly in the context of changing market dynamics [1] - It emphasizes the role of ETFs in providing liquidity and diversification for investors [1] Group 2: Fixed Income and Real Estate Stocks - Fixed income investors are reportedly holding onto real estate stocks, indicating a strategic choice amidst market uncertainties [1] - The article notes that this trend may reflect a belief in the stability and potential growth of the real estate sector [1]