近日，由中国证券报主办的"开放、融合、新机——2025海外投资发展大会"在上海举行。专注微观结构 的量化交易机构GOLDEN HEN FUND SPC董事长王庭发围绕2026年全球市场走势、风险机遇及布局方 向发表观点。王庭发认为，2026年全球市场的第一驱动力是主要经济体的货币政策和预期差的偏离。美 联储2026年的降息节奏、日元的加息力度，以及主要国家政策与预期之间的偏离，将主导股、债、商、 汇市场的轮动，这是影响全年市场的关键因素。 王庭发观察到2026年全球市场的三大机遇。一是降息催生固收投资机会，美联储2026年预期降息50BP 至100BP，利率将向3%靠拢，这可能打开美债和高评级企业债的配置窗口。二是新兴市场成超额收益 洼地，如印度等新兴市场，既受益于全球宽松货币政策，又凭借产业链转移实现内部需求复苏，成为资 金追逐超额收益的重点区域。三是科技领域的确定性增长，2025年AI概念火爆，2026年将进入应用落 地期，应用落地会提升生产绩效，从而产生相应的红利。 ...

国际润滑的方 研究所 法律声明 IFFIDA 新框架、新逻辑、新数据, 系统梳理2026年固收投资的关键变化 1、低利率预期变化之时:溯因寻锚,换挡启程 -- 2026年固收市场展望 2、2026年货币政策展望:日标函数和宽松模式重构 3、存单利率何时"下得去",四个方面讲清楚 -- 跨年存单行情展望 4、重票息、择品种、博交易 -- 2026年度信用债投资策略 5、重"稳"轻"赎",配短博长 -- 2026年银行二永债年度策略 6、2026年国债期货策略展望 V 7、因势而动，精耕个券——2026年转债策略展望 8、春山可望,再赴新程 -- 2026年REIT年度策略 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股 ...

【导读】走进工银瑞信基金 | 第3期：固本正源的固定收益投资 文：陈梦 近年来，全球政治经济环境风起云涌，股票市场震荡加剧，大宗商品价格起伏不定。通胀压 力、利率波动、信用风险等交织下，越来越多的投资者不再追求单一的高收益，而是转向资 产的"稳中求进"。 在此背景下，固定收益类基金凭借独特的优势，逐渐成为投资者抵御市场不确定性、构建"攻 守兼备"投资组合的核心工具。 那么，固定收益类基金如何运作？低利率环境下，固收类产品是否仍值得关注？投资者如何 合理利用这类工具？ 作为银行系固收标杆，工银瑞信基金固收团队在严控风险的基础上，发挥主动管理优势， 以"全品类、多策略"应对市场波动，旗下固定收益类产品业绩表现可圈可点。本期走进工银 瑞信基金系列栏目，工银瑞信基金固收投资部基金经理徐博文、固收投资部基金经理助理殷 悦，将带大家深入了解固收投资。 什么是固收基金 相较于以股票资产为底层资产的权益类基金，固收基金的底层资产主要是债券，包括国债、 地方政府债、政策性金融债等利率债，以及企业债、公司债、中期票据、短期融资券等信用 债，部分产品还会通过可转债、同业存单等工具增强收益弹性。 固收基金主要分为四大类：纯债基金、一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing importance of fixed income funds as a core tool for investors seeking stability and balanced returns amid increasing market volatility and economic uncertainty [1] Group 1: Understanding Fixed Income Funds - Fixed income funds primarily invest in bonds, including government bonds, corporate bonds, and other debt instruments, aiming to balance risk and return [2] - These funds are categorized into four main types: pure bond funds, first-level bond funds, second-level bond funds, and mixed bond funds, focusing on providing stable returns while controlling volatility [2] Group 2: Attractiveness of Fixed Income Investments - Despite low interest rates and declining expected returns for traditional fixed income products, there remains potential for yield exploration within specific bond types [3] - Broader fixed income products offer flexibility, allowing fund managers to hedge risks and optimize return-risk ratios through strategic asset allocation and selection [3] - The evolution of fixed income products into multi-asset, multi-strategy tools enhances their appeal to investors seeking stable returns [3] Group 3: Key Factors for Successful Fixed Income Investment - A robust and mature research platform is essential, requiring a comprehensive team covering various research areas to meet the diverse needs of broad fixed income products [4] - A collaborative culture that encourages sharing insights across teams is crucial for informed investment decisions and maximizing opportunities [5] - The ability to quickly adapt and integrate resources in response to market changes is vital for maintaining competitive investment strategies [5] Group 4: Utilizing Fixed Income Tools - Investors should assess their risk tolerance and select long-term performing products within acceptable volatility ranges [6] - For those lacking timing expertise, entrusting funds to professional "fixed income+" or multi-asset teams is advisable [6] - Fixed income products should serve as a core component of an investment portfolio, with the potential for flexible pairing with equity or "fixed income+" products to enhance returns while ensuring stability [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing importance of fixed income funds as a core tool for investors seeking stability and balanced returns in a volatile market environment characterized by inflation, interest rate fluctuations, and credit risks [1]. Summary by Sections What are Fixed Income Funds - Fixed income funds primarily invest in bonds, including government bonds, municipal bonds, policy financial bonds, corporate bonds, and other credit bonds. Some products may also use convertible bonds and interbank certificates to enhance yield [3]. Current Market Environment - In the current low interest rate and low yield environment, traditional fixed income products like money market funds and pure bond funds face declining expected returns. However, there is still potential for yield exploration within specific bond types. Broader fixed income products offer more flexibility, allowing fund managers to hedge risks and optimize return-risk ratios through macroeconomic assessments and asset allocation adjustments [5]. Importance of a Strong Research Platform - A successful fixed income investment strategy relies on a mature research platform with three core capabilities: a professional and comprehensive research team covering various fields, a collaborative culture for sharing insights, and the ability to quickly adapt and integrate resources in response to market changes [7]. How Investors Can Utilize Fixed Income Tools - Investors should first assess their risk tolerance and select long-term high-performing products within acceptable volatility ranges. For those lacking professional timing abilities, it is advisable to entrust funds to specialized "fixed income+" or multi-asset investment teams. Fixed income products should be viewed as a core asset base for stable long-term growth, with the option to flexibly combine them with equity products or "fixed income+" products to enhance yield while maintaining stability [9].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the stability and long-term performance of the fixed income team at ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management, highlighting the rarity of fund managers who maintain consistent performance over a decade or more [1][5][13] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The fixed income investment approach is likened to a marathon, focusing on long-term rhythm and endurance rather than short-term speed [1] - The company has developed a mature system to continuously seek excess returns in a low-yield, high-volatility environment, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic foresight and institutional behavior tracking [2][3] - Asset pricing dynamics are crucial for identifying investment opportunities, with the company considering various valuation indicators to inform its "fixed income+" product strategies [3] Group 2: Team and Talent - The fixed income team at ICBC Credit Suisse has grown to 46 members, with a structured growth path for team members to ensure the continuity of research capabilities [7] - The presence of experienced fund managers, such as Ouyang Kai and He Xiuhong, who have managed funds for over a decade, contributes to the company's stability and performance [6][5] Group 3: Product Offering - The company has established a comprehensive "fixed income super shelf" with a diverse range of products tailored to different investor needs, including short-term, medium-term, and various types of bond funds [8][10] - The "fixed income+" products are categorized into three tiers based on equity positions and risk-return characteristics, catering to different market cycles and investor risk appetites [9] Group 4: Historical Development - The development of ICBC Credit Suisse's fixed income business has been marked by significant milestones, including the launch of the first money market fund in 2006 and the establishment of a robust investment research framework [10][11] - The company has achieved substantial growth, with its fixed income business scale surpassing 670 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a successful transition to high-quality development [12] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its investment capabilities and continue innovating in product offerings, particularly in response to the evolving market environment and investor needs [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the stability and long-term performance of ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management's fixed income team, highlighting their ability to navigate various market cycles while maintaining consistent returns for investors [1][10]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The fixed income team at ICBC Credit Suisse has developed a mature system to address the challenges of low yields and high volatility, focusing on macroeconomic foresight and long-term research to guide investment decisions [2][3]. - The team employs a dual pricing system based on yield spreads to identify relative value opportunities and enhance returns through dynamic asset allocation [3][4]. - The firm has built a comprehensive "super shelf" of fixed income products, offering a wide range of options tailored to different investor needs and risk profiles [8][9]. Group 2: Team and Talent - The fixed income research team has grown to 46 members, with a structured mentorship program to ensure the transfer of knowledge and expertise among team members [7][12]. - The presence of experienced fund managers with over ten years of tenure is a significant asset, contributing to the firm's stability and performance [5][6]. Group 3: Market Position and Growth - ICBC Credit Suisse has established itself as a leader in the fixed income market, with its bond fund scale surpassing 670 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a strong market presence [12][13]. - The firm has successfully launched innovative products, such as the Sci-Tech Bond ETF, which has gained significant market traction since its inception [12][13]. Group 4: Historical Development - The firm has a clear growth trajectory since its inception in 2006, marked by key milestones such as the launch of the first money market fund and the first short-term wealth management fund in China [10][11]. - The establishment of a robust research and management framework has enabled the firm to adapt to changing market conditions and investor demands effectively [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the stability and long-term performance of the fixed income investment team at ICBC Credit Suisse Fund, highlighting their ability to navigate various market cycles while maintaining consistent returns for investors [1][10]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Market Environment - The demand for low-risk investment options is increasing, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment where bond yields have significantly decreased, prompting investors to seek more attractive returns from bond funds and "fixed income+" products [2][3]. - ICBC Credit Suisse Fund has developed a mature system to address the challenges of low yields and high volatility, focusing on macroeconomic research and tracking institutional investor behavior to manage risks effectively [2][3]. - The fund employs a detailed asset pricing strategy, considering various valuation indicators to optimize the allocation between equity and debt in their "fixed income+" products [3][4]. Group 2: Team and Management Structure - The fund boasts a team of experienced managers, with several having over ten years of management experience, which is rare in the industry where the average tenure is only five years [4][5]. - The fixed income research team has grown to 46 members, emphasizing collaboration and a structured growth path for team members to ensure the continuity of investment research capabilities [6][7]. Group 3: Product Offerings and Development - ICBC Credit Suisse Fund has established a comprehensive range of fixed income products, categorized into various types to meet diverse investor needs, including short-term, medium-term, and passive index bond funds [7][8]. - The fund's "fixed income+" products are designed to cater to different risk appetites and market conditions, with clear differentiation in equity exposure and risk-return characteristics [8][9]. Group 4: Historical Growth and Future Outlook - The fund's fixed income business has evolved significantly since its inception in 2006, achieving substantial growth and market leadership, with its bond fund scale surpassing 670 billion yuan by 2024 [9][10]. - The company aims to continue enhancing its investment capabilities and product innovation, focusing on supporting the real economy and promoting inclusive finance while maintaining stable performance for investors [10][11].

Core Insights - The article discusses the "slow philosophy" of fixed income investment by ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management, emphasizing the importance of meticulous strategies in a low-yield environment [1] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The "slow philosophy" focuses on refining investment strategies rather than chasing high returns, which is crucial in the current micro-profit era [1] - The approach involves a deep understanding of market dynamics and a commitment to long-term value creation [1] Group 2: Market Environment - The current investment landscape is characterized by low interest rates and reduced profit margins, necessitating a shift in investment strategies [1] - The article highlights the challenges faced by fixed income investors in adapting to these market conditions [1] Group 3: Strategic Focus - ICBC Credit Suisse emphasizes the importance of risk management and thorough research in their investment process [1] - The company aims to build a diversified portfolio that can withstand market fluctuations while delivering stable returns [1]

Core Viewpoint - The shift in China's economic focus from high-speed growth to high-quality development has led to a change in wealth management priorities from "pursuing appreciation" to "prioritizing preservation of value" [1] Group 1: Fixed Income Investment Insights - Fixed income assets are preferred as the "core position" in investment portfolios due to their stable returns and lower volatility, while equity assets serve as "satellite positions" for higher elastic returns [1] - The selection logic for fixed income products differs fundamentally from equity products, requiring a comprehensive capability matrix across macro asset allocation, medium asset pricing, micro bond trading, and credit risk identification [1] - Evaluating fixed income managers should focus on team structure, the depth of collaboration across the research-decision-trading-risk management chain, and the presence of a sustainable knowledge management system [1] Group 2: Performance Rankings - According to recent rankings by Guotai Haitong Securities, Western Li De Fund's active fixed income products achieved a return of 91.87% over the past decade, ranking first among 71 firms [2][3] Group 3: Historical Context and Competitive Advantage - The past decade has seen fixed income investment undergo two macro paradigm shifts, with different core drivers and success factors in each phase [4] - Western Li De Fund's fixed income team has maintained a leading position due to its competitive advantages, including a strong team structure and effective collaboration [4] Group 4: Risk Management Philosophy - Western Li De defines fixed income investment as "winning the loser's game," emphasizing the importance of avoiding significant losses rather than solely chasing high returns [6] - The team culture emphasizes market respect and sets a "zero credit risk event" as a non-negotiable discipline [7] Group 5: Evaluation and Strategy - Performance evaluation is extended over three to five years to mitigate the impact of short-term performance chasing [8][9] - The WISE platform developed by Western Li De enables comprehensive digital management of the investment process, enhancing decision-making and risk monitoring [10] Group 6: Investment Principles - The four core principles for long-term performance in fixed income investment include maintaining low-risk exposure, adhering to absolute return goals, ensuring product strategy stability, and believing in the value of research [12][13][14] Group 7: Team Development and Collaboration - The fixed income team at Western Li De emphasizes internal talent development, fostering a unified value system and efficient collaboration [17][18] - The team comprises members with diverse expertise, allowing for complementary skills and collective decision-making [19][20] Group 8: Technological Empowerment - The WISE system enhances operational efficiency and decision quality, crucial for navigating the new alpha era in fixed income investment [21][22] - The initial investments in risk control and team development have yielded significant long-term performance benefits, positioning Western Li De as a leader in the industry [23]