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房地产行业报告(2025.11.3-2025.11.9):预计2026年地产销售"总量趋稳、结构优化"
China Post Securities· 2025-11-10 12:12
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate industry is under financial pressure, with many companies experiencing a decline in net profits or even losses due to high-cost land project transfers and asset impairment provisions. However, quality real estate companies are achieving profitability through regional advantages and product strength. Local supportive measures are being introduced, but nationwide easing policies have not yet been implemented. The total sales area of commercial housing in China from January to September 2025 was 658 million square meters, with residential sales accounting for 550 million square meters. The total for the year is expected to reach 870 million square meters, with residential sales projected at 730 million square meters. It is anticipated that residential sales area will stabilize around 700 million square meters in 2026, reflecting a trend of "stabilization in total volume and optimization in structure" [4][5] Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals Tracking - New housing transaction area in 30 major cities last week was 1.3702 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 7.61057 million square meters for the year, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks in these cities was 1.8493 million square meters, down 32% year-on-year but up 1.2% month-on-month. In first-tier cities, the average transaction area was 49730 square meters, down 42.3% year-on-year but up 2.1% month-on-month. In second-tier cities, it was 94120 square meters, down 26.2% year-on-year but up 3% month-on-month. In third-tier cities, it was 41080 square meters, down 29.7% year-on-year but down 3.5% month-on-month [5][13] - The available inventory of commercial residential properties in 14 cities last week was 80.0656 million square meters, down 7.15% year-on-year but up 0.18% month-on-month. The average de-stocking cycle for these cities was 18.54 months, with first-tier cities at 13.32 months [16] - The second-hand housing transaction area in 20 cities last week was 2.0735 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 9.51106 million square meters for the year, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [19][21] - In the land market, 207 residential land plots were newly supplied in 100 major cities last week, with 24 plots sold. The average floor price for residential land was 5406.55 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 3.5%, up 0.19 percentage points month-on-month [26][28] Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index fell by 0.22%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.82%, indicating that the real estate index underperformed the CSI 300 by 1.05 percentage points. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index rose by 1.45%, outperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index by 0.63 percentage points [29][31]