国家统计局数据显示，初步核算，2018年上半年我国国内生产总值418961亿元，按可比价格计算，同比 增长6.8%。分季度看，一季度同比增长6.8%，二季度增长6.7%。 贾康认为，我国宏观经济运行如果从平台来看，从2015年下半年开始的，到现在已经三年之久，12个季 度在平台状运行，如果不出大的意外，稍微往下调整以后，仍然有望延续这种由新入常的平台运行状 态。 未来宏观经济发展的重点何在？贾康认为，进一步扩大内需、中国可选择的聪明投资或有效投资，有巨 大潜能空间，要坚定不移地全面扩大开放等方面是发展要点。 每经记者｜张钟尹 每经编辑｜毕陆名 7月21日，华夏新供给经济学研究院、中国新供给经济学50人论坛在青岛举行以"新供给、新金融：助推 高质量发展"为主题的2018年第二季度宏观经济形势分析会。 华夏新供给经济学研究院首席经济学家贾康在分析会上表示，下半年和今后的不确定性主要来自外部的 冲击和影响，对连锁反应是值得特别关注的，十分敏感的股市和汇市，可能会比实际上应该客观估量的 影响表现为升级状态。 在指出这些不确定性的同时，贾康也十分强调确定性。他强调，从全局和长远来看，这些不确定性旁 边，的确还有确定性。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate industry is under financial pressure, with many companies experiencing a decline in net profits or even losses due to high-cost land project transfers and asset impairment provisions. However, quality real estate companies are achieving profitability through regional advantages and product strength. Local supportive measures are being introduced, but nationwide easing policies have not yet been implemented. The total sales area of commercial housing in China from January to September 2025 was 658 million square meters, with residential sales accounting for 550 million square meters. The total for the year is expected to reach 870 million square meters, with residential sales projected at 730 million square meters. It is anticipated that residential sales area will stabilize around 700 million square meters in 2026, reflecting a trend of "stabilization in total volume and optimization in structure" [4][5] Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals Tracking - New housing transaction area in 30 major cities last week was 1.3702 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 7.61057 million square meters for the year, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks in these cities was 1.8493 million square meters, down 32% year-on-year but up 1.2% month-on-month. In first-tier cities, the average transaction area was 49730 square meters, down 42.3% year-on-year but up 2.1% month-on-month. In second-tier cities, it was 94120 square meters, down 26.2% year-on-year but up 3% month-on-month. In third-tier cities, it was 41080 square meters, down 29.7% year-on-year but down 3.5% month-on-month [5][13] - The available inventory of commercial residential properties in 14 cities last week was 80.0656 million square meters, down 7.15% year-on-year but up 0.18% month-on-month. The average de-stocking cycle for these cities was 18.54 months, with first-tier cities at 13.32 months [16] - The second-hand housing transaction area in 20 cities last week was 2.0735 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 9.51106 million square meters for the year, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [19][21] - In the land market, 207 residential land plots were newly supplied in 100 major cities last week, with 24 plots sold. The average floor price for residential land was 5406.55 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 3.5%, up 0.19 percentage points month-on-month [26][28] Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index fell by 0.22%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.82%, indicating that the real estate index underperformed the CSI 300 by 1.05 percentage points. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index rose by 1.45%, outperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index by 0.63 percentage points [29][31]

Core Insights - The 138th China Import and Export Fair, also known as the Canton Fair, opened on October 15 in Guangzhou, showcasing a record number of exhibitors and exhibition space, reflecting the resilience and growth of China's foreign trade [1][4]. Group 1: Exhibition Highlights - The exhibition covers a total area of 1.55 million square meters with 74,600 booths and over 32,000 participating companies, marking historical highs [1]. - Approximately 3,600 companies are making their debut at this year's fair, indicating strong interest and participation [1]. - The fair is divided into three phases focusing on "Advanced Manufacturing," "Quality Home Furnishings," and "Better Life" themes [1]. Group 2: Trade Performance - In the first three quarters, China's total goods trade import and export reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4% [3]. - Exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 12.07 trillion yuan, growing by 9.6%, with high-tech products like electronic information and high-end equipment seeing significant growth [3]. Group 3: Attractiveness of the Fair - The fair's appeal is bolstered by government support through reduced exhibition fees, customs facilitation, and tax incentives, which lower costs for participating companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises [1][2]. - The fair serves as a global procurement platform, effectively connecting emerging and traditional market demands [2]. - Digital transformation initiatives have expanded trade boundaries, creating a continuous trade ecosystem through an online-offline integration model [2]. Group 4: Economic Signals - The fair is viewed as a "barometer" for China's foreign trade and a reflection of the country's economic resilience amid global uncertainties [3][4]. - The participation of numerous high-quality enterprises and innovative products at the fair indicates an ongoing improvement in the quality and efficiency of China's foreign trade [3]. - The fair highlights the shift towards high-value-added products and the diversification of markets, with emerging markets contributing significantly to trade growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries aims to enhance quality supply capabilities and optimize the development environment, significantly impacting the stability of the industrial economy [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The ten key industries include steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, machinery, automotive, power equipment, light industry, and electronic information manufacturing, collectively accounting for about 70% of the industrial output above a designated size [1]. - The new plans focus on both supply and demand sides, emphasizing coordinated efforts to stimulate industry growth and address structural challenges [1][3]. Group 2: Quantitative Goals - Specific growth targets have been set for various industries, such as a 5% annual increase in value-added for petrochemical and non-ferrous metal industries by 2025-2026 [2]. - The automotive industry aims for approximately 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales projected at around 15.5 million, reflecting a 20% growth [2]. Group 3: Policy Focus - The current stabilization policies shift from "quantity growth" to a focus on "quality and efficiency," prioritizing structural optimization and long-term high-quality development [3]. - The plans emphasize expanding demand and optimizing supply, with specific initiatives in the power equipment sector to enhance international market participation and domestic consumption [4]. Group 4: Industry Challenges and Solutions - The petrochemical industry faces intensified competition in basic organic raw materials and insufficient supply of high-end fine chemicals, prompting support for key product development and innovation centers [5]. - The machinery sector is tasked with enhancing innovation capabilities and supply chain resilience, focusing on the development of smart equipment and quality brand building [5]. Group 5: Competition Regulation - A notable aspect of the new plans is the emphasis on strengthening industry governance and regulating competitive order, particularly in the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6][7]. - The steel industry will implement precise capacity and output controls, while the non-ferrous metals sector will focus on avoiding redundant low-level construction and promoting self-regulation [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for banks, particularly CITIC Bank, to fundamentally reconstruct their value creation model in response to structural challenges in the banking industry, such as interest rate marketization and financial disintermediation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - CITIC Bank's 2025 mid-term report shows a steady profit growth, with a 2.8% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025, indicating resilience in a challenging environment [9]. - The bank's total assets grew by 8.28% year-on-year, and its net interest margin (NIM) of 1.63% ranks among the top in the industry, reflecting effective management of interest income and costs [5][13]. Group 2: Quality of Growth - The bank focuses on high-quality growth, which is not merely about improving financial metrics but involves a multi-dimensional evolution in structure, efficiency, risk, and innovation [4][5]. - CITIC Bank is transitioning from a scale-dependent model to one driven by capabilities, as evidenced by faster growth in off-balance sheet financing and wealth management compared to traditional lending [6][7]. Group 3: Systematic Approach - The bank's management prioritizes system construction and capability enhancement over short-term results, believing that a robust system is essential for sustainable growth [10][11]. - CITIC Bank's strategy includes a clear path for system advancement, focusing on core capabilities and integrated multi-dimensional capabilities to create a unique financial ecosystem [10]. Group 4: Structural Optimization - The bank emphasizes structural optimization across various dimensions, including business, asset, liability, and customer structures, to ensure balanced and resilient growth [12]. - CITIC Bank's approach to asset quality involves increasing credit support for high-quality assets while reducing the proportion of low-efficiency assets, aligning with national strategic goals [12]. Group 5: Risk Management - The bank has adopted a proactive risk management strategy, integrating risk considerations into all business processes rather than relying solely on traditional tightening measures [14][15]. - Key risk indicators, such as non-performing loan ratios and provisioning coverage, remain stable, with a focus on enhancing the value of problem assets through effective management [15]. Group 6: Competitive Advantage - The competitive advantage for CITIC Bank lies in its adaptive capabilities and deep systemic strength rather than mere speed or scale, positioning it for sustainable development in a complex environment [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 20.49 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.90 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [1]. - The total beer sales volume for H1 2025 reached 4.732 million kiloliters, a 2.3% increase year-on-year, with a notable growth in mid-to-high-end products [2]. - The report forecasts revenue growth of 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2.3% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth of 9.8%, 7.0%, and 6.4% respectively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.046 billion yuan, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.194 billion yuan, up 7.32% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 45.8% in Q2 2025, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost optimization and a favorable change in product mix [2]. - The report projects net profit attributable to shareholders to reach 4.768 billion yuan in 2025, with an EPS of 3.50 yuan [4]. Sales and Pricing Dynamics - The average selling price per ton in Q2 2025 increased by 0.26% to 4,065 yuan, while the cost per ton decreased by 5.1% to 2,202 yuan due to lower raw material costs [2]. - The sales volume of the main brand increased by 3.9% to 1.34 million kiloliters in Q2 2025, with mid-to-high-end product sales growing by 4.8% [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a projected P/E ratio of 20X for 2025, decreasing to 17X by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3]. - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 48.02 billion yuan, with a current price of 67.72 yuan per share [5].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic economy continues to slow down in August, with a mix of resilience in production and pressure on demand, highlighting the need for policy support to boost consumption and investment [1] Production Sector - Industrial added value growth has slowed year-on-year but remains at a relatively high level, with policy-related and energy supply industries maintaining vitality [1] - External demand is under pressure, leading to a negative growth rate in export delivery value [1] - There is a divergence within the service sector, with strong performance in technology and finance but weakness in business services [1] Consumption Sector - Retail sales growth has declined year-on-year, although summer economic activities and policy support have bolstered some upgrades and durable goods consumption [1] - Essential consumption and real estate-related consumption are under pressure, indicating insufficient internal recovery momentum [1] Investment Sector - Fixed asset investment growth rates, both cumulative and monthly, are declining across various components, necessitating increased policy measures to stimulate investment [1] Future Outlook - The economy is expected to maintain a slow but stable trajectory with structural optimization, although demand recovery will take time [1] - There is a need for policies to focus on boosting demand, enhancing consumption willingness, optimizing investment structure, and mitigating risks in key areas to ensure stable economic operation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new round of ten key industry growth stabilization plans has been launched to support industrial growth amid external and internal economic challenges, focusing on maintaining reasonable growth rates in key industries to stabilize the overall economy [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth Plans - The plans include the "Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry Action Plan (2025-2026)", "Power Equipment Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)", and "Automobile Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" [1]. - The ten key industries targeted are steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, machinery, automobiles, power equipment, light industry, and electronic information manufacturing, which collectively account for about 70% of the industrial economy [3][4]. Group 2: Specific Industry Goals - The "Automobile Plan" aims for annual vehicle sales of approximately 32.3 million by 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 15.5 million, a growth of about 20% [3]. - The "Power Equipment Plan" sets a target for traditional power equipment to maintain an average annual revenue growth rate of around 6%, while the advanced manufacturing cluster in the power equipment sector aims for a 7% annual revenue growth [4]. - The "Electronic Information Manufacturing Plan" anticipates an average growth rate of 7% for major electronic equipment manufacturing, with a target of over 40% market penetration for large-screen televisions by 2026 [4][6]. Group 3: Policy Focus and Changes - The current stabilization policies emphasize quality and efficiency alongside growth, shifting from a focus on quantity to structural optimization and long-term high-quality development [2][8]. - The policies aim to enhance supply through technological innovation and address irrational market competition, promoting a unified national market [2][7]. - The emphasis on creating new demand and exploring new markets marks a shift from the previous focus on restoring consumer growth [7][8].

Group 1: Price Data Overview - The August price data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows significant structural differentiation, with a slight year-on-year decline in CPI, but positive signals regarding economic transformation and structural optimization are evident [1][4] - CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to last year's high base and lower seasonal food prices, with food prices dropping by 4.3% year-on-year [1][2] - The decline in food prices reflects the strengthening of domestic agricultural supply capabilities, indicating support from the supply side rather than a contraction in demand [1] Group 2: Core CPI and Consumer Demand - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, indicating a steady recovery in domestic consumption demand [2] - Service consumption, particularly in healthcare, education, and tourism, has shown significant price increases, contributing to the core CPI's rise [2] - Upgraded consumption remains robust, with notable price increases in gold and platinum jewelry, as well as household appliances, reflecting a growing pursuit of high-quality living among consumers [2] Group 3: Industrial Price Trends - Industrial prices are showing positive changes, with PPI stabilizing after eight months of decline, and the year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points [3] - The structural improvement in industrial prices indicates a marginal improvement in supply-demand relationships within certain industries, alongside ongoing optimization of industrial structure and growth of new drivers [3] - Key industry capacity governance measures are yielding results, leading to price increases in traditional raw material sectors like coal and steel, while new drivers are enhancing prices in high-tech and green industries [3] Group 4: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - Current price data reflects a significant structural characteristic of "supply optimization in traditional sectors and demand expansion in emerging sectors," highlighting the accelerated transition of China's economic drivers [4] - Macro policies need to remain precise and patient, ensuring stable supply and prices for essential goods while enhancing the internal driving force through improved consumption environments and high-quality supply [4] - Continued support for consumption and the construction of a unified national market are expected to promote steady recovery in consumer demand and stabilize low CPI levels, while industrial price recovery is anticipated to continue [4]

Group 1 - The August price data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows significant structural differentiation, with a slight year-on-year decline in CPI, but positive signals regarding economic transformation and structural optimization are evident [1][4] - The CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year and lower seasonal food prices, with food prices dropping by 4.3% year-on-year [1][2] - Non-food prices are showing a continuous recovery, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a steady recovery in domestic consumption demand [2][3] Group 2 - Industrial prices are showing positive changes, with PPI turning stable after eight months of decline, and the year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points, signaling improved industrial economic stability [3][4] - The structural improvement in industrial prices reflects better supply-demand relationships in certain sectors and ongoing optimization of industrial structure, with traditional industries like coal and steel seeing price increases [3][4] - The ongoing expansion of new demand in emerging sectors is driving price increases in high-tech and green industries, indicating a shift towards higher value-added products [3][4]