当前地方财政收支矛盾较大，重大项目建设资金比较依赖地方政府发债。为了防控地方政府债务风 险，当年地方政府新增发债总额需要全国人大在每年3月份全国两会期间批准，而这又会使得地方发 债集中在下半年。 2025.12. 22 本文字数：2572，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 为了稳经济，地方政府正着手明年初发行政府债券筹资支持重大项目建设等，目前预计一季度筹资规 模已超过1万亿元。 第一财经梳理各地财政部门公开信息发现，截至12月22日，至少有四川、江苏、江西、贵州等14个 省市（自治区、直辖市、计划单列市）已经公开了明年一季度或1月当地政府债券发行计划，累计发 行规模近1.2万亿元。 多位地方债专家告诉第一财经，随着后续更多地方披露明年发债计划，这一发债规模会更大。这也体 现了明年更加积极财政政策靠前发力，以带动有效投资，持续化解地方政府隐性债务风险，从而助推 明年一季度经济平稳开局。 明年地方万亿级发债将启动 为了加快地方政府债券发行使用进度，保障重点领域重大项目资金需求，2018年底以来，全国人大 常委会授权国务院可以提前下达下一年度新增地方政府债务限额，这就使得地方提前收到财政部下达 的部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a 10 trillion yuan local government bond replacement plan to mitigate hidden debt risks, with over 5 trillion yuan already replaced as of now [3][4]. Group 1: Debt Replacement Strategy - The central government has introduced a plan to replace hidden debts with local government bonds, aiming to extend repayment periods and reduce interest rates [3]. - As per the Ministry of Finance's debt replacement plan, the 10 trillion yuan replacement quota is distributed from 2024 to 2028, with 2.8 trillion yuan allocated for each of the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, and 800 billion yuan for 2027 and 2028 [3][4]. - By the end of 2024, the total government debt in China is projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan, with local government debt (including hidden debt) amounting to 58 trillion yuan, indicating a higher proportion of local debt compared to central debt [6]. Group 2: Recommendations for Debt Management - Experts suggest that the current debt replacement resources do not align with local government needs, advocating for a more flexible allocation of debt resources based on actual requirements [4][5]. - There is a call for increasing the debt limit for local governments to facilitate the replacement of unresolved hidden debts, utilizing various types of bonds for this purpose [7]. - The former head of the Fiscal Science Research Institute recommends that the central government should take on more debt to alleviate local government debt pressure and enhance debt sustainability [6][7]. Group 3: Current Debt Risk Assessment - The overall debt risk in China is considered manageable, with a government debt ratio of 68.7% as of the end of 2024, significantly lower than the G20 average of 118.2% [8].

Group 1 - The central government has implemented a plan to replace local government hidden debts with a quota of 10 trillion yuan, with over 5 trillion yuan already replaced [1] - Suggestions have been made to issue an additional 1 trillion yuan in local government bonds this year to further alleviate local financial pressures [1] - The current local fiscal liquidity pressure is increasing due to sluggish revenue growth, leading to significant interest repayment burdens in some regions [1] Group 2 - There is a mismatch between the available debt replacement resources and the actual needs of local governments, as the debt maturity is not evenly distributed [2] - Recommendations include optimizing the debt replacement methods and increasing the debt limits to better address local government needs [3] - The central government should take on a larger share of the debt to improve the overall debt structure, as local government debt currently exceeds central government debt [3][4] Group 3 - The scale of local government hidden debts remains unclear, partly due to ambiguous fiscal responsibilities between central and local governments [4] - Suggestions have been made to increase local debt limits for replacing unclear hidden debts and to optimize the structure of existing debts [4] - The central government has room to increase leverage to alleviate local government debt pressures and ensure efficient use of debt funds [4] Group 4 - China's overall debt risk is considered manageable, with a government debt ratio of 68.7%, significantly lower than the G20 average of 118.2% [5] - The seminar was co-hosted by several institutions, and the "China Local Government Bond Blue Book (2025)" was released during the event [5]