Group 1: Role of Local Debt - Local debt serves as a key policy tool in China's macroeconomic regulation, playing a significant role in stabilizing economic and social operations, expanding fiscal spending, and optimizing public resource allocation [2][5] - During the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022, local debt was crucial in countering economic downturns by facilitating infrastructure investment [2][5] - The use of local debt has become a routine policy tool for smoothing economic fluctuations and stabilizing overall demand in China [5] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Transmission - Local debt has become the main channel for transmitting policy signals to the real economy, with bond funds flowing directly to specific projects, primarily in infrastructure sectors like transportation and water conservancy [3] - The concentration of debt funds in these areas has improved the overall economic development environment and created investment increments, effectively transmitting fiscal expansion intentions through local debt [3][4] Group 3: Structural Support and Resource Optimization - The scope of special debt has expanded from traditional infrastructure to new areas such as consumption promotion, thereby broadening the coverage of funds [4] - Local debt promotes the simultaneous optimization of resource allocation between public and private sectors, enhancing market resource allocation efficiency through government debt financing [4] Group 4: Regional Coordination and Spillover Effects - Local debt investment in infrastructure generates positive externalities, with studies indicating that a 1% increase in local government debt can boost neighboring regions' economic growth by 0.15-0.3 percentage points [6] - The spillover effects of local debt are cumulative over time, with long-term benefits significantly outweighing short-term impacts [6] Group 5: Debt Risk and Management - Local government debt risks exhibit spatial contagion characteristics, where risk events in one administrative region can trigger synchronized debt risk increases in neighboring areas [7] - The relationship between debt and assets is crucial for repayment safety, with current mechanisms for converting debt into effective assets lacking clarity [10][12] Group 6: Future Directions for Local Debt - There is a need to balance the expansion of fiscal space through local debt with the accumulation of risks, as rising government debt burdens can significantly reduce fiscal surplus rates [10][11] - A three-tiered government debt structure is proposed, with central government debt as the main component, provincial governments sharing some burden, and local governments retaining only essential municipal revenue bonds [16]

2025.09. 24 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒在上述研讨会上表示，目前化债资源与地方化债需要之间存在矛盾。 2024年至2026年每年是2.8万亿化债额度，是基于假设债务均匀到期，但实际上债务到期并不是均 匀分布的，有些年度可能比2.8万亿高，有的年份可能比2.8万亿少一些，这就需要我们根据地方政府 的实际需要，实事求是地根据需要来配置化债资源。 本文字数：1712，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 为了防范化解地方政府隐性债务风险，中央推出的10万亿元的地方政府债券置换存量隐性债务计划 快速落地，截至目前地方实际置换隐性债务已经超5万亿元。 9月23日，中诚信国际研究院院长袁海霞在"中国宏观经济热点问题研讨会"上建议，当前财政政策可 以更加积极有为。比如建议在上述10万亿元化债额度中，在今年剩下的时间里增发1万亿地方政府债 券来置换存量隐性债务，通过存量债务风险的缓释来改善地方活力和地方流动性压力。 袁海霞表示，随着地方财政收入增长乏力，当前地方财政流动性压力不断加剧，一些地方利息偿付压 力比较大。 为了防范化解地方政府隐性债务风险，去年四季度中国推出一揽子化债"组合拳"，其中一大核心就是 ...

官方已经表态靠前使用化债额度 为了防范化解地方政府隐性债务风险，中央推出的10万亿元的地方政府债券置换存量隐性债务计划快速 落地，截至目前地方实际置换隐性债务已经超5万亿元。 9月23日，中诚信国际研究院院长袁海霞在"中国宏观经济热点问题研讨会"上建议，当前财政政策可以 更加积极有为。比如建议在上述10万亿元化债额度中，在今年剩下的时间里增发1万亿地方政府债券来 置换存量隐性债务，通过存量债务风险的缓释来改善地方活力和地方流动性压力。 中国财政科学研究院原院长刘尚希在上述研讨会上表示，从全球看，一般中央与地方之间的债务结构是 中央占比远高于地方占比，但我国现在是地方债务占比高于中央债务占比，这不利于控制地方债务风 险。未来应当优化央地债务结构，逐步扩大中央债务占比，同时缩小地方债务占比。 根据财政部数据，截至2024年底，我国政府全口径债务总额为92.6万亿元，其中，中央财政发行的国债 34.6万亿元，地方政府债务（含隐性债务）58万亿元。中央政府债务占债务总额比重约37%，明显低于 地方政府债务占债务总额比重（约63%）。 刘尚希表示，当前看，可通过中央财政加杠杆和建立一些置换机制，解决地方政府债务占比偏高 ...