1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the fiscal strength of various regions continued to show a differentiation trend, with most provinces experiencing an increase in general public - budget revenue. The land market remained sluggish, affecting local debt - resolution resources. The net financing gap of urban investment bonds continued to expand, and the proportion of new bonds for debt - replacement remained high. The primary - market subscription enthusiasm was high, and the secondary - market spreads showed a fluctuating downward trend [99]. - The urban investment market has been clearly divided, and the unified "urban investment belief" may be a thing of the past. Credit analysis should shift from a general evaluation of government credit to a precise classification of platforms based on their business - government credit binding degree [100]. - In 2025, thanks to debt - resolution funds, the non - standard debt risk of urban investment decreased, but commercial paper overdue still mainly occurred among urban investment entities in heavy - debt regions. In the future, the "differentiation" in the urban investment market will be greater than the "commonality", and investment strategies need to be more refined and forward - looking [100][101]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Review of Regional Fundamentals 3.1.1. Local Fiscal Revenue Review - In 2025, the national general public - budget revenue was 21.60 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Tax revenue was 17.64 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, while non - tax revenue was 3.97 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3%. Central general public - budget revenue decreased by 6.5%, and local general public - budget revenue increased by 2.4% [5]. - In terms of provinces, the fiscal strength continued to differentiate. Guangdong ranked first in general - budget revenue, and Jiangsu exceeded one trillion yuan. Most provinces' general - budget revenue growth increased, with Xinjiang, Jilin, and Tibet having high growth rates. However, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia saw a decline in fiscal strength [10]. - The land - transfer market was generally sluggish. Most provinces' land - transfer revenue decreased year - on - year, and the proportion of urban investment land purchases decreased overall [11][13]. 3.1.2. Debt Burden Situation - In terms of the narrow debt ratio, most provinces' narrow debt ratios increased, with 16 provincial regions having an increase of more than 20 percentage points. 24 provinces had a narrow debt ratio of over 300% at the end of 2025. Gansu, Tianjin, Jilin, Chongqing, Tibet, and Beijing saw a decrease in narrow - debt burden [14]. - In terms of the broad debt ratio, only 7 provinces, including Gansu, Tianjin, Jilin, etc., saw a slight decrease. Guangxi, Yunnan, Qinghai, and Inner Mongolia had an increase of over 100 percentage points. At the end of 2025, Guangxi had the heaviest broad debt ratio [18]. 3.2. Bond Market Review 3.2.1. Primary Market - In 2025, the issuance volume of urban investment bonds was 5.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.11%, and the repayment volume was 5.42 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.13%. The net financing was - 0.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 220.54% [20]. - From the issuance side, the issuance volume continued to shrink due to the "borrowing new to repay old" policy. The amount of urban investment bonds "approved" by exchanges increased slightly, while the "terminated" amount decreased significantly. The proportion of new bonds for debt - replacement increased to 81.79%, and the weighted average subscription multiple was 3.09 times, slightly lower than in 2024. The number of cancelled bond issuances decreased significantly [22][23][25]. - From the repayment side, in 2025, the number of urban investment bond repayments was 9,447, and the repayment amount was 5.42 trillion yuan. The proportion of maturity, put - back, redemption, and early repayment was 69.69%, 22.52%, 3.69%, and 4.09% respectively. Most repayment scales decreased, except for redemption [32]. - In terms of net financing performance, the net - financing situation of urban investment bonds continued to differentiate. The number of provincial regions with negative net financing increased from 13 in 2024 to 18 in 2025. Except for provincial - level urban investment, other levels of urban investment platforms had negative net financing [36][40]. 3.2.2. Secondary Market - In 2025, the secondary - market spreads of urban investment bonds showed a fluctuating downward trend. The spreads of different maturities also showed a downward trend, with more significant fluctuations in long - term varieties. Except for Inner Mongolia, the spreads of other provinces decreased compared to the beginning of the year, and the spreads of medium - and low - implicit - rating urban investment bonds narrowed more [43][46][47]. 3.3. 2026 Debt Pressure 3.3.1. Stock and Maturity of Urban Investment Bonds in 2026 - As of December 31, 2025, the balance of urban investment bonds was 14.98 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.24 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024. The total repayment amount of urban investment bonds in 2026 was 4.93 trillion yuan, accounting for 32.91% of the stock bonds. The repayment pressure was mainly concentrated in March, April, and August [49][50]. - Jiangsu had the largest maturity scale in 2026, followed by Zhejiang. Yunnan and Ningxia had a relatively high proportion of maturity amount to the stock bonds, facing greater concentrated - repayment pressure [53]. 3.3.2. Refinancing Guarantee for Urban Investment Bonds Maturing in 2026 - The bond issuance in 2025 in Hunan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Zhejiang, Inner Mongolia, and Tibet was insufficient to cover the principal of bonds maturing in 2026, while Liaoning, Hainan, and Gansu had a relatively high guarantee level [57]. - Among 239 prefecture - level cities with maturing urban investment bonds in 2026, 106 cities' refinancing guarantee multiples in 2025 were less than 1 time, and 24 cities did not issue bonds, with weak refinancing ability [58]. 3.3.3. Guarantee of Local Fiscal Revenue for the Interest of Local Debt Maturing in 2026 - The interest - payment pressure of each province in 2026 was significantly differentiated. Jiangsu had the greatest pressure, followed by Zhejiang. All regions' local fiscal revenue had a guarantee multiple of over 1 time for the interest of broad - sense debt maturing in 2026, but Yunnan, Jilin, Jiangsu, Hunan, Guangxi, and Sichuan had a multiple of less than 2 times [61][63][65]. - Most provinces' land - transfer revenue in 2025 had a guarantee multiple of no more than 1 time for the interest to be repaid in 2026, and 11 regions, including Chongqing, Heilongjiang, etc., had a multiple of less than 0.5 times [66]. 3.4. Key Discussion: Future Evolution of Urban Investment Platforms and Deduction of Credit Analysis Logic - The urban investment market is differentiating, and the credit - analysis logic should be based on the binding degree between the platform's business and government credit. There are four types of platforms: traditional urban investment platforms, public - welfare generalized platforms, non - public - welfare generalized platforms, and pure industrial platforms, each with different credit - assessment logics, core supports, and risk warnings [73][74][78]. 3.5. Credit Sentiment 3.5.1. Non - standard Risk - In 2025, the non - standard risk events of urban investment decreased significantly, with only 22 times. Guizhou and Shandong had the most non - standard risk events from 2018 to 2025, but both decreased significantly in 2025. Non - standard defaults mainly occurred at the district - county and prefecture - level city levels, and the number of defaults in most levels decreased in 2025 [79][81][83]. - In 2025, the number of non - standard repayment cases increased, with 10 full - repayment and 6 partial - repayment events [84]. 3.5.2. Commercial Paper Overdue Risk - In 2025, the number of urban - investment entities with commercial paper overdue fluctuated, ranging from 65 to 90. The risk was more concentrated in subsidiaries. A total of 237 bond - issuing urban investment entities had commercial paper overdue. The top three provinces in terms of overdue quantity were Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu [86][87]. - In December 2025, 87 bond - issuing urban investment entities had commercial paper overdue, with Shandong having the highest number. The regional concentration of overdue was very high. The overdue rates of Heilongjiang, Tibet, Henan, Shandong, and Shaanxi were relatively high [91][93].