10 月交易所城投债融资明显改善 交易所新发债主体数量同步上升 —— 2025 年 10 月城投债发行审批月度跟踪 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 11 月 24 日 | [李一爽 Table_FirstA 固定uthor 收益]首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com | | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 | | 执业编号：S1500524080002 | | 联系电话：+86 15850662789 | | 邮 箱：zhujinbao@cindasc.com | Xyue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T债券able_ReportType] 专题 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 当前或为储备票息资产的较好窗口 ——信用周报 20251123 ❖ 信用债市场复盘 1、本周信用债收益率窄幅震荡，信用利差走势分化。本周中日摩擦有所升温 叠加美股高位回调，权益风险偏好减弱，但债市缺乏交易主线，股债跷跷板效 应不明显，债市震荡偏弱。 2、本周信用债 ETF 成分券估值波动较大，超额利差明显上行，出现超跌。信 用债 ETF 成分券超额利差自 6 月初开始快速下行，7 月下旬压缩至低位后窄 幅震荡，本周信用债 ETF 成分券超额利差上行。究其原因，一方面，信用债 整体表现偏弱，成分券流动性较好，出现超跌；另一方面，7 月以来成分券超 额利差在-10BP 左右低位震荡，前期第二批科创债 ETF 上市完成后短期增量 资金有限，估值出现回归。 ❖ 后市展望：11 月底至 12 月初将进入年末配置行情，重点关注机构配置行为变 化，考虑到明年债市或仍将窄幅震荡，当前或为储备票息资产的较好窗口，3y 以内品种利差已压缩至 2024 年最低点以下，性价比较低，或可适当拉长久期 博取收益。此外，市场对基金费率新规最终版本讨论较多，关注后续落地情况。 ❖ 信用策略：4-5y 品 ...

股债定价各有独立逻辑，定价的结果或均偏向止盈。 投资要点： 市 场 策 略 周 报 股弱债不强，意味着什么 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 本报告导读： 证 券 研 究 报 告 | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 杜润琛(研究助理) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880123090079 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 区间震荡行情延续 2025.11.22 美元流动性收紧何时缓解 2025.11.18 大行短端买入力度减弱 2025.11.18 本轮移仓有何特征和机会 20251117 2025.11.17 大行融出回落，存单发行提升，6M 期限最多 2025.11.17 请务必阅读正文之后 ...

查看完整报告 特别申明： 点击注册小程序 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 1、一级市场 注：本篇报告的信用债口径包括定向工具、短期融资券、公司债、金融债（不含同业存单和政金债）、中 期票据、企业债。 2025年11月17日至11月21日（以下简称"本周"），信用债共发行455只，发行规模总计5812.11亿元，环比 增加27.63%。 发行规模方面，本周，产业债共发行233只，发行规模达2515.05亿元，环比增加48.22%,占本周信用债发 行总规模的比例为43.27%；城投债共发行166只，发行规模达1036.56亿元，环比增加26.83%,占本周信用 债发行总规模的比例为17.83%；金融债共发行56只，发行规模达2260.50亿元，环比增加10.83%,占本周信 用债发行总规模的比例为38. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Interest - rate bonds**: From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 126.37 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 85.09 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 41.28 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank funding prices rose. During November 10 - 16, 2025, the primary issuance of interest - rate bonds was 72.6866 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 39.0322 billion yuan. Most treasury bond yields declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 40.97BP to 40.36BP [1]. - **Credit bonds**: From November 10 to November 16, 2025, 935 credit bonds (including inter - bank certificates of deposit) were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 120.1412 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16.8766 billion yuan; the net financing amount was 2.0711 billion yuan. Most credit bond yields declined [2]. - **Large - scale asset weekly observation**: From November 7 to November 14, 2025, most of the three major US stock indexes rose; European three major stock indexes increased; US bond yields went up; the US dollar index weakened, and non - US currencies were differentiated; crude oil and gold prices rose [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest - rate Bonds 3.1.1 Liquidity Observation - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the central bank's full - scale net injection was 41.28 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank funding prices rose, and most exchange - based funds also increased [15]. 3.1.2 Primary Market Issuance - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 72.6866 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 39.0322 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds increased compared to the previous period [25]. 3.1.3 Secondary Market Trading - Most treasury bond and state - owned development bond yields declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spreads of both narrowed [32]. 3.2 Credit Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market Issuance - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, 935 credit bonds were newly issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 120.1412 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16.8766 billion yuan; the net financing amount was 2.0711 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of the number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest proportion in terms of issuance amount. Most of the issuances were AAA - rated, and the issuance was mainly for 3 - 5 - year terms. The financial industry had the largest number of issuances [43]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trading - Most credit bond yields declined. For urban investment bonds, the 1 - year AA - rated yield declined the most, and the 5 - year AAA - rated yield increased the most. For medium - and short - term notes, the 5 - year AA - rated yield declined the most, and the 10 - year AAA - rated yield increased the most [50]. 3.2.3 One - week Credit Default Event Review - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the credit bonds of 3 enterprises defaulted [54]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Weekly Observation 3.3.1 Most European and American Stock Indexes Rose - Most of the three major US stock indexes, European three major stock indexes, and most Asia - Pacific stock indexes rose [55]. 3.3.2 US Bond Yields Rose - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, US bond yields increased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread changed to 44.00BP [58]. 3.3.3 The US Dollar Index Weakened, and Non - US Currencies Were Differentiated - The US dollar index declined by 0.26% weekly, and non - US currencies showed different trends [60]. 3.3.4 Crude Oil and Gold Prices Rose Weekly - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, gold and crude oil prices increased [66]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The macro - economic data in October verified the economic recovery path of "downplaying the aggregate and optimizing the structure". The bond market may remain volatile. Investors are advised to pay attention to the impact of the new fund regulations on the bond market. In the short term, institutional investors may reduce their allocation of pure bond funds and turn to bond ETFs or money market funds. In the long term, the new regulations are conducive to the stability of the liability side of bond funds. It is recommended to seize the band opportunities of interest - rate bonds, focus on high - rated and short - duration credit bonds, and pay attention to the Central Economic Work Conference in December [4].

以化债促发展，城投债融资边际改善 ——2025 年三季度城投债市场分析与展望 联合资信 公用评级四部 |马玉丹 |王文燕 靠前使用化债额度，财政部加码助力隐债化解。9 月 12 日，财政部在国新办举 行的新闻发布会上表示，将提前下达部分 2026 年新增地方政府债务限额，靠前使用 化债额度，多措并举化解存量隐性债务。截至 2025 年 10 月底，用于置换隐性债务的 特殊再融资债券已累计披露发行 1.993 万亿元，发行进度 99.67%。特殊新增专项债券 发行节奏自 5 月开始明显提速，三季度累计发行 7381 亿元，截至 9 月底发行总额已 超过 1.2 万亿，超额完成年度 8000 亿发行目标。10 月 13 日，河北省财政厅率先披露 已提前获得 2026 年置换存量隐性债务限额 280 亿元，目前处于待分配状态。 5000 亿新型政策性金融工具落地，缓释地方投资压力。9 月 29 日，国家发展改 革委召开新闻发布会，宣布设立规模达 5000 亿元的新型政策性金融工具，全额用于 补充重大项目建设资本金。同日，国开行、农发行、进出口银行同步成立专项公司， 标志该稳投资举措进入实质性落地阶段。截至 10 月 ...

截至 2025 年 11 月 17 日，存量信用债估值及利差分布特征如下： 城投债： 公募城投债中，江浙两省加权平均估值收益率均在 2.5%以下；收益率超过 4.5%的城投债出现在贵州区县级；其余区 域中，云南、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，公募城投债收益率超过半数下行，其中，3-5 年品种收益率平均 下行幅度达到 1.2BP。具体来看，收益下行幅度较大的品种的包括 3-5 年河南区县级非永续、3-5 年贵州区县级非永 续、1 年内及 2-3 年广西区县级永续债。 私募城投债中，上海、浙江、广东、福建等沿海省份的加权平均估值收益率在 2.85%以下；收益率高于 3.5%的品种出 现在云南、贵州地级市及区县级、以及甘肃区县级；其余的广西、青海等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，私募城投债 收益率普遍下行，3-5 年品种收益平均下行 2.6BP。具体来看，收益下行幅度较大的有 1 年内福建地级市永续、2-3 年 河北地级市永续、2-3 年山西区县级非永续及 1-2 年宁夏地级市非永续债，分别对应下行 8.6BP、9.3BP、12.6BP 和 22.7BP。 产业债： 民企地产债和产业债估值收益率及利差整体高于其他品 ...

信用债周策略 20251117 地方盘活存量资产，稳固行业发展势头 2025 年 11 月 17 日 ➢ 扩内需政策及行业供需关系改善，部分行业价格出现了稳定增长趋势 2025 年 10 月份，随着扩内需等政策措施持续显效，叠加国庆、中秋长假带动， CPI 环比上涨 0.2%，同比上涨 0.2%；扣除食品和能源价格的核心 CPI 同比上涨 1.2%，涨幅连续第 6 个月扩大。受国内部分行业供需关系改善、国际大宗商品价 格传导等因素影响，PPI 环比由上月持平转为上涨 0.1%，为年内首次上涨；同比 下降 2.1%，降幅比上月收窄 0.2 个百分点，连续第 3 个月收窄。 各行业价格正在反复振荡中呈现有所回升趋势，部分行业出厂价格开始出现持续 修复迹象，例如煤炭、光伏、水泥、计算机、锂离子电池、集成电路等，这与近 期国家实施"反内卷"政策有关，也与各行业供需关系持续改善有关。同时，核 心 CPI 出现持续增长现象，目前已涨至 1.2%，且预计未来仍然存在进一步提升 的空间；此趋势若能延续至 2026 年，则 CPI 与 PPI 存在大幅度改善的可能性。 ➢ 地方政府正在积极盘活存量资产，拓展新的增量发展空间 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The transformation effect of market - oriented business entities remains to be seen, and it is difficult to expect significant incremental bond supply. The supply - demand relationship of traditional credit bonds remains tight, and the pricing of outstanding bonds among market - oriented entities may become more differentiated in the future [3][35] - The concentrated opening of amortized open - end bond funds may directly benefit general credit bonds (such as urban investment bonds and industrial bonds), especially 3 - 5Y medium - and long - term credit bonds. High - rated (AAA - and above) medium - term notes are recommended as key trading targets in the future [7][75][76] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Platform Market - Oriented Transformation - **Local Bond Issuance for Debt Resolution** - Special Refinancing Bonds: As of 2025/11/9, 19,934 billion yuan of the 2 - trillion - yuan debt quota allocated in 2025 has been issued, almost fully utilized. Except for Henan, all other regions have completed the issuance of special refinancing special bonds within the annual quota [14] - Special New Special Bonds: As of 2025/11/9, 12,818 billion yuan of special new special bonds have been issued in 2025, exceeding the annual limit of 80 billion yuan. The excess may be used to repay non - implicit debt corporate arrears [20] - **Progress of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Entities Exiting the Platform** - From 2025/1/1 - 11/9, 179 bond - issuing urban investment entities announced exiting the platform. Most provinces have a progress of over 50%, while Liaoning and Guizhou are relatively lagging, and future debt - resolution resources may be tilted towards them [24][27] - **Effect of Platform Market - Oriented Transformation** - The number of market - oriented business entities is increasing, but it has not led to a significant increase in bond financing scale. The reasons may be weak asset quality, cautious regulatory review, and limited investor recognition. The transformation effect remains to be observed [3][34] 3.2 Primary Market - **Net Financing Scale** - This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 154.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.5 billion yuan from last week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 35.9 billion yuan, an increase of 18.5 billion yuan from last week [36] - **Issuance Cost** - The issuance rate of AA industrial bonds increased by 30BP to over 3%. The issuance rates of other different - rated and different - type bonds fluctuated within 15BP compared to last week [45] 3.3 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume** - This week, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 51.8 billion yuan compared to last week. The trading volume of asset - backed securities increased by 1.4 billion yuan [46] - **Yield** - The yields of different - rated and different - term credit bonds fluctuated within 3BP compared to last week [49] - **Credit Spreads** - Except for the slight compression of credit spreads in AA+ electrical equipment, light manufacturing, and automobile industries, the credit spreads of other industries and ratings slightly widened. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and bank capital bonds also had small - scale fluctuations [54] 3.4 This Week's Bond Market News - The implied ratings of 20 bond issues of Lionbridge Financial Leasing (China) Co., Ltd. were downgraded; the implied rating of "Yuanhe 4B" issued by China Power Construction Group Hubei Engineering Co., Ltd. was downgraded; the entity rating of Beijing Aerospace宏图 Information Technology Co., Ltd. was downgraded, and the bond rating of "Hongtu Convertible Bond" was also downgraded [72] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - The central bank achieved a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan this week. Except for a few industries, the credit spreads of most industries and ratings slightly widened. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and bank secondary and perpetual bonds had small - scale fluctuations [74] - The concentrated opening of amortized open - end bond funds may benefit general credit bonds and 3 - 5Y medium - and long - term credit bonds. High - rated medium - term notes are recommended as key trading targets [75][76]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes maintaining duration as the year-end approaches, with a focus on medium to long-term credit varieties, particularly 4-5 year products which show marginal improvement in cost-performance despite still low spread levels [2][10][12] - The current yield range for long-term credit bonds (5 years and above) rated AA+ and above is between 2.16% and 2.66%, indicating a certain level of yield cost-performance [3][10] - The report notes that funds have significantly increased their allocation to 5-year and above credit bonds, reflecting a trend towards extending duration for yield [3][10] Group 2 - The report highlights key policies and events, including Tianjin's measures to support high-quality development of REITs, which aim to enhance capital market services for the real economy [4][19] - The upcoming revision of the "Commercial Bank M&A Loan Management Measures" is expected to broaden the scope of applicable loans and optimize loan conditions, which could facilitate mergers and acquisitions [4][19][24] - The report mentions that the National Development and Reform Commission has recommended 105 infrastructure REITs projects to the CSRC, with 83 already issued, indicating a normalization in the issuance of infrastructure REITs [4][19][24] Group 3 - The report indicates that the credit bond market has seen a majority of yields decline, with financial bonds performing better, while credit spreads have shown divergence [6][10] - The issuance scale of credit bonds this week was 269.9 billion, a decrease of 20.5 billion from the previous week, with net financing also down [7][10] - The report notes a decrease in trading activity in both the interbank and exchange markets for credit bonds, suggesting a decline in market liquidity [7][10]