Group 1 - The report continues to track local debt replacement, local hidden debt clearance, and the progress of platform withdrawal, updating the list of urban investment bonds based on the characteristics of the bond issuance [1] - As of October 2025, local governments issued special bonds for hidden debt replacement, special new special bonds, and special refinancing bonds amounting to 72.6 billion, 479.3 billion, and 449.6 billion respectively, benefiting from a central allocation of 500 billion for resolving existing government investment project debts [1] - By October 2025, local governments cumulatively issued 19,934.1 billion, 12,508.4 billion, and 544.9 billion in special bonds for hidden debt replacement, special new special bonds, and special refinancing bonds respectively [1] Group 2 - As of November 5, 2025, 94 districts and counties disclosed plans to achieve "zero hidden debt" in 2024 and 2025, including 9 at the city level and 85 at the district level [2] - In October 2025, the proportion of funds raised from urban investment bonds used for refinancing, repaying interest-bearing debts, supplementing working capital, and project construction were 84.0%, 12.9%, 2.4%, and 0.6% respectively, with an increase of 0.7 percentage points for project construction or liquidity support compared to September [3] - The number of market-oriented operating entities decreased by 2 compared to September, indicating a decline in market preference for long-term bonds from market-oriented entities, leading to an increase in credit spreads [3] Group 3 - In October 2025, 7 new entities were identified that do not belong to the urban investment category defined by the research [4]

本报告持续跟踪地方债置换隐债、地方隐债清零和退平台进度，并基于城投债募集资金用途特征、"市场化经营主体"声明等债券发行特征，更新兴业研究 界定的城投名单。具体用于化债的地方债发行规模统计、城投界定名单于兴魔方®（X-CUBE®）同步更新。 2025年1-8月，特殊新增专项债发行额已超过2024年全年发行额以及每年8000亿元的用于补充政府性基金财力额度，据此推断，在用于化债的额度之外， 中央可能专门下发了用于消化拖欠企业账款的新增专项债额度，或成为地方债务风险化解的补充资金来源。根据Wind和DM数据统计，2025年1-8月，各 地方政府累计发行置换隐债专项债、特殊新增专项债（根据未披露"一案两书"的新增专项债统计）19333.6、9679.5亿元，其中，特殊新增专项债发行额已 超去年全年发行总额，并且高于每年8000亿元的用于补充政府性基金财力的额度。我们此前报告已提示过，用于消化拖欠企业账款的新增专项债同样不会 披露"一案两书"，当前特殊新增专项债发行额度已超过每年8000亿元的用于补充政府性基金财力的额度，或显示用于消化拖欠企业账款的新增专项债可能 不占用用于化债的每年8000亿元新增专项债额度。 多地 ...