特殊新增专项债

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政府债周报:新增债披露发行2233亿-20250824
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-24 14:14
丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 新增债披露发行 2233 亿 ——政府债周报(8/24) 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 8 月 25 日-8 月 31 日地方债披露发行 3515.97 亿元。其中新增债 2232.89 亿元(新增一般债 353.10 亿元,新增专项债 1879.79 亿元),再融资债 1283.08 亿元(再融资一般债 656.93 亿 元,再融资专项债 626.15 亿元)。 8 月 18 日-8 月 24 日地方债共发行 3691.50 亿元。其中新增债 2488.07 亿元(新增一般债 95.39 亿元,新增专项债 2392.68 亿元),再融资债 1203.43 亿元(再融资一般债 468.73 亿元,再 融资专项债 734.70 亿元)。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC:S0490524080003 SAC:S0490524120005 SFC:BVN394 SFC:BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 发行复盘 8 月 18 日-8 月 24 日地方债共发行 3691.50 亿元。其中新增债 ...
地方债持续扩容,补充了多少财力?
Huaan Securities· 2025-08-21 03:38
[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 地方债持续扩容,补充了多少财力? [首席Table_Author] 分析师:颜子琦 执业证书号:S0010522030002 电话:13127532070 邮箱:yanzq@hazq.com 报告日期: 2025-08-21 主要观点: ⚫[Table_Summary] 置换类地方债发行渐进尾声,成效几何? 年内特殊再融资债发行已近收尾,发行规模明显前置。从发行情况来看, 截至 8 月 20 日,年内已披露的已发待发特殊再融资债规模合计 19366.57 亿元,占计划规模(2 万亿)的比重约为 96.8%,仅湖南(200 亿元)、河 南(175 亿元)、贵州(84 亿元)与湖北(174 亿元)仍存在待发额度,其 中上半年累计发行约 1.8 万亿,发行节奏明显前置。 特殊新增债接棒发力,年内累计规模近万亿元。特殊新增专项债方面,年 内累计已发待发规模为 9622.83 亿元,已超过去年全年水平(8777.76 亿 元),其中北京、广东(含深圳)与上海在今年之前并未发行过该品种,均 为各区域内首次发行,其他省份中,江苏省年内累计规模 1189 亿 ...
化债进行到哪里了?
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-19 05:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - "One - package debt - resolution policy" has been in place for two years, and debt resolution has entered the second half. The credit risk is expected to remain controllable during the debt - resolution cycle, and more attention should be paid to the creditworthiness development in the post - debt - resolution cycle [2][3] - As of now, the local government's implicit debt resolution work is expected to have passed the halfway mark. By the end of 2025, the overall progress of platform delisting in the country may reach 70 - 80%, and the resolution progress of operating debts is also expected to exceed half by the end of the year [2][3][39] Summary According to the Table of Contents 2024 - present Debt Resolution Actions - Since the "one - package debt - resolution" proposal, a series of policies centered around the "Document 35" have been introduced, including "Document 47", "Document 14", "Document 134", "Document 150", "Document 226", and "Document 99", which have continuously refined and supplemented the debt - resolution requirements [6][7] Implicit Debt Resolution Progress - In 2025, the issuance of replacement bonds continued to advance, with a disclosed issuance plan of 19042.34 billion yuan and an annual progress of 95.21%. The issuance scale of special new special bonds reached 8505.78 billion yuan [2][8] - Since 2024, a total of 63225.88 billion yuan of debt - resolution funds have been implemented, accounting for 51.4% of the implicit debt balance to be resolved before 2028. As of now, Guangdong, Beijing, Shanghai, 22 prefecture - level cities, and 113 counties have announced the achievement of the goal of "zero implicit debt across the region", and Inner Mongolia announced its withdrawal from the key debt - resolution provinces on July 29 [2][9][13] Delisting Progress - As of the end of 2024, 40% of local government financing platforms had exited the financing platform sequence. As Inner Mongolia withdrew from the key provinces, Chongqing, Guangxi, Liaoning and other places are also actively seeking delisting. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the overall delisting progress in the country may reach 70 - 80% [3][15][16] Operating Debt Disposal - By the end of 2024, the scale of operating financial debts of financing platforms was 14.8 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 25% compared with the beginning of 2023. The bond issuance interest rate has significantly decreased, and high - interest debts in bank loans and non - standard debts are mainly reduced through three ways. The proportion of bank loans in the interest - bearing debt structure has increased rapidly, and the non - standard debts have been significantly reduced [20][23][26] - In 2024, the overall interest payment scale of urban investment was 3.05 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of only 2.06%. The comprehensive financing cost of urban investment platforms was 4.72%, a decrease of about 7bp compared with 2023 [29] Industrial Transformation - The ways of establishing industrial platforms include setting up a holding parent company, separating or integrating industrial - attribute subsidiaries, and developing industrial businesses on the original basis of entities with low urban investment attributes [33] - The injected operating assets depend on local resource endowments. Industrial transformation can also be achieved through equity investment and mergers and acquisitions of listed companies [36] Summary - The "one - package debt - resolution policy" continues to advance, and debt resolution has entered the second half. The credit risk is expected to remain controllable during the debt - resolution cycle, and more attention should be paid to the creditworthiness development in the post - debt - resolution cycle [3][41]
政府债周报:新增债披露发行2488亿-20250818
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-18 15:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - From August 11th to August 17th, local government bonds issued a total of 9.1432 billion yuan, including 4.9356 billion yuan in new bonds (3.0321 billion yuan in new general bonds and 1.9034 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 4.2076 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (2.8632 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 1.3445 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds). From August 18th to August 24th, local government bonds are expected to issue 36.915 billion yuan, including 24.8807 billion yuan in new bonds (953.9 million yuan in new general bonds and 23.9268 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 12.0343 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (4.6873 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 7.347 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][4][5] - As of August 17th, the fourth round of special refinancing bonds has a total disclosed amount of 435.5743 billion yuan, with 196.7218 billion yuan disclosed in 2025 and an additional 9.164 billion yuan to be disclosed next week. The top three provinces or municipalities with separate planning in terms of the fourth - round disclosure scale are Jiangsu (56.47 billion yuan), Hunan (27.8732 billion yuan), and Shandong (24.1398 billion yuan). As of August 17th, the special new special bonds in 2025 have a total disclosed amount of 44.0733 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 163.1246 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three in terms of disclosure scale are Jiangsu (21.0235 billion yuan), Hubei (12.8769 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (11.886 billion yuan). The top three provinces or municipalities with separate planning in terms of the 2025 disclosure scale are Jiangsu (9.51 billion yuan), Hebei (3.9143 billion yuan), and Hubei (3.6913 billion yuan) [6] Summary by Directory Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - From August 11th to August 17th, the net supply of local government bonds was - 1.37 billion yuan; from August 18th to August 24th, the forecast net supply of local government bonds is 20.88 billion yuan [10][15] - A comparison of the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds in July and August is presented, showing differences in the issuance of new bonds, new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [13][17] - The monthly issuance plan, actual issuance, and net financing situation of local government bonds are also shown [21] Local Bond Net Supply - As of August 17th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 70.47%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds was 64.10% [25] - The cumulative scale of the difference between refinancing bonds and local government bond maturities as of August 17th is presented [25] Special Bond Issuance Details - As of August 17th, the statistics of special refinancing bonds show the issuance amounts in different rounds for various provinces and municipalities [29] - As of August 17th, the statistics of special new special bonds show the issuance amounts from 2023 to 2025 for various provinces and municipalities [31] Local Bond Investment and Trading - The first - and second - level spreads of local government bonds are presented, including the spreads for different maturities and the changes over time [36] - The second - level spreads of local government bonds in different regions are presented, showing the spread changes in different regions from May to August 2025 [39] New Special Bond Investment Directions - The investment directions of new special bonds are presented, with the latest month's statistics only considering the issued new bonds [42]
2025年上半年地方债发行分析:再融资专项债集中发行,区域分化问题显著
Yuan Dong Zi Xin· 2025-08-15 09:13
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit local government debts through concentrated issuance of refinancing special bonds, which squeezed the issuance window for special bonds to some extent [2][45] - New special bonds will take over from refinancing special bonds, with an expected issuance scale of nearly 2 trillion yuan in the third quarter. Their investment directions show many highlights, such as diversification, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][46] - The issuance of local bonds shows significant regional differentiation. Five key debt - resolution provinces have higher issuance costs, while some economically developed provinces have lower issuance spreads. "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas are the main issuers, and key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds [3][46] - The expansion of local bond scale intensifies the repayment pressure in some regions, and the flexibility and autonomy of special bond issuance and use increase the management difficulty. Future management should strengthen the whole - life cycle management of special bond projects and leverage the role of special bond funds [4][47] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Local Bond Issuance in the First Half of 2025 - Overall, local government bonds issued about 5.49 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 57.18% increase year - on - year, reaching a record high. Net financing was about 4.41 trillion yuan, a 135.69% increase year - on - year [6] - In terms of bond types, refinancing special bonds and new special bonds were the main types. Refinancing special bonds issued 2.15 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.16% of the total. New special bonds issued 2.16 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.35% of the total, with a slow overall issuance progress in the first half of the year and an expected peak in the third quarter [7] - New special bonds are mainly invested in traditional infrastructure, but also show many highlights, including diversified investment, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][11] - Special refinancing bonds issued 1.80 trillion yuan, completing 90% of the annual quota, with issuance expected to slow down in the second half of the year. Special new special bonds issued 4647.80 billion yuan, accounting for 8.47% of the total, with large issuance potential [2][15] 2. Regional Differentiation in Local Bond Issuance - In terms of overall issuance, Jiangsu Province issued the most local bonds, 5500.6 billion yuan, mainly refinancing special bonds. Shandong, Guangdong, and Sichuan issued over 300 billion yuan [25] - In terms of issuance spreads, five key debt - resolution provinces have spreads mostly above 20BP, while some economically developed provinces have spreads compressed to within 10BP [3][27] - "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas (excluding Hebei Xiongan New Area) issued 2.95 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 53.73% of the total. They are expected to speed up the issuance of new special bonds in the future [31] - Twelve key provinces issued 2.15 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, mainly refinancing special bonds. Many provinces are accelerating their exit from the list of high - risk debt areas, and those that exit are expected to increase the quota of new special bonds [34][37] 3. Problems and Prospects of Local Bonds - Problems include the increased repayment pressure in some regions due to the large - scale growth of local bonds and weakening fiscal revenue, and the increased management difficulty of special bonds due to enhanced flexibility and autonomy [38] - In terms of repayment pressure, the balance of local government debts has risen rapidly, and although the average term has been extended and the average interest rate has decreased, the weak fiscal revenue may intensify the interest - payment pressure [38][39] - In terms of special bond management, there are problems such as illegal investment, false reporting, misappropriation, and idle funds. Future management should focus on strengthening investment area management, full - process management, and expanding the proportion of special bonds used as project capital [43][44] 4. Summary - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit debts. New special bonds will take over, and special new special bonds have large issuance potential [45][46] - Regional differentiation is significant, and "self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas will play an important role. Key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds, and provinces exiting high - risk debt areas may increase new special bond quotas [46] - The expansion of local bond scale and weak fiscal revenue increase repayment pressure, and special bond management needs to be strengthened. In the future, new special bonds will be issued and used more quickly, and investment areas may be further expanded [47]
“清欠”专项债披露超千亿
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-13 14:24
Government Debt Financing - Net financing for government debt in week 32 (8/4-8/10) was 421.4 billion, and in week 33 (8/11-8/17) it was 200.9 billion, totaling 9.6 trillion, exceeding last year's figure by 4.9 trillion[1][5] - The net financing for national bonds and new local bonds in week 32 was 386.1 billion, and in week 33 it was 264 billion, with a cumulative broad deficit of 7.7 trillion, achieving 65.0% of the annual target[1][5] - National bonds net financing in week 32 was 338.6 billion, and in week 33 it was 214.6 billion, with a cumulative total of 4.3 trillion, reaching 65.2% of the annual target[1][7] Local and Special Bonds - Local debt net financing in week 32 was 82.8 billion, while in week 33 it was -13.7 billion, with a cumulative total of 5.3 trillion, exceeding last year's figure by 3 trillion[1][9] - New general bonds in week 32 amounted to 7.3 billion, and in week 33 it was 30.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 545.6 billion, achieving 68.2% of the annual target[1][9] - New special bonds in week 32 were 40.3 billion, and in week 33 it was 19 billion, with a cumulative total of 2.8 trillion, reaching 64.0% of the annual target[2][12] - Special new bonds issued totaled 857.9 billion, with 102.8 billion issued in August alone, accounting for 61% of the new special bonds[2][12] Risk and Market Indicators - Special refinancing bonds in week 32 had no issuance, while in week 33 it was 1.2 billion, with a cumulative total of 1.9 trillion, achieving 94% of the issuance target[2][21] - Urban investment bonds in week 32 had net financing of 20.6 billion, while week 33 is projected to be -21.5 billion, with the total balance of urban investment bonds below 10.3 trillion[2][26] - Fixed asset investment year-on-year growth is at 2.80%, retail sales growth is at 4.80%, and export growth is at 7.20%[4]
信用周报:贵州:化债后半程还有哪些机会?-20250813
China Post Securities· 2025-08-13 11:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Guizhou is a typical key province with relatively weak economic and fiscal strength, but the debt burden has been significantly relieved after debt resolution. The progress of debt resolution is approaching the end, and there is still a demand for new financing at the provincial, municipal, and high - tech district levels, mainly relying on industrialization entities [4][19][21]. - The debt pressure in Guizhou has been alleviated, and the public - market debt issuance is cautious. The debt structure is relatively balanced. The transformation progress of listed and second - type urban investment companies is not fast, and there is no clear provincial coordination time for delisting [4][19]. - For bond selection, short - term varieties of both traditional urban investment and newly emerged market - oriented entities can be considered. Traditional urban investment's standard - bond market is shrinking, and the remaining part has a stronger safety margin. Market - oriented entities are currently the key recommended targets in the region, with relatively controllable credit risks in the short term. A cautious attitude is still maintained towards medium - and long - term credit products [4][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic and Fiscal Situation - In 2024, Guizhou's GDP was 2.266712 trillion yuan, ranking tenth from the bottom among provinces; the general budget revenue was 216.962 billion yuan, also ranking relatively low nationwide. However, the government - funded revenue was 231.528 billion yuan, ranking 8th in the country. Since 2020, Guizhou has had a government - funded revenue scale of over 200 billion yuan for four consecutive years [2][9]. - Among Guizhou's prefecture - level cities, Guiyang and Zunyi are in the first echelon. In 2024, their GDP exceeded 50 billion yuan, while other prefecture - level cities and autonomous prefectures were between 10 billion and 25 billion yuan. In 2024, the general budget revenues of Guiyang and Zunyi were 47.205 billion yuan and 34.776 billion yuan respectively, and the land transfer revenues were 64.325 billion yuan and 28.308 billion yuan respectively [3][13]. 3.2 Debt Situation - In 2024, Guizhou's government debt balance was 1.753709 trillion yuan, and the outstanding urban investment interest - bearing debt was only 1.590627 trillion yuan, with a relatively balanced debt structure [2][10]. - In 2024, the government debt balances of Guiyang and Zunyi were 376.955 billion yuan and 278.841 billion yuan respectively, and the outstanding urban investment interest - bearing debts were 385.355 billion yuan and 191.134 billion yuan respectively [3][13]. 3.3 Debt Resolution Progress - With limited financial resources in the province, the debt resolution support is strong. Substantial progress has been made in high - interest debt replacement with the help of special bond debt - resolution funds. Banks are more willing to participate in high - interest debt replacement, mainly replacing high - interest bank loans, while the progress of non - standard debt replacement is relatively slow [3][16]. - From 2024 to the present in 2025, Guizhou has issued 184.619 billion yuan and 105.944 billion yuan of special refinancing replacement bonds respectively, with the issuance scale always in the top five in the country. The scale of special new special bonds is also not small [16]. 3.4 Development and Bond Financing - Guizhou's debt resolution is approaching the end, and there is a demand for new financing at the provincial, municipal, and high - tech district levels, mainly relying on the subsequent appearance of industrialization entities in the capital market [4][19]. - The transformation progress of listed and second - type urban investment companies in Guizhou is not fast, and there is no clear provincial coordination time for delisting. Currently, the publicly - traded bond - issuing entities strongly recommended in the region are mainly state - owned enterprises that have successfully transformed into market - oriented operations [4][19]. 3.5 Industrial Situation - Guian New Area aims to build "three major industrial bases": a national computing power guarantee base, a new - energy power battery and material R & D and production base, and an important national industrial backup base. Many major projects have been put into production, but the contribution of data computing centers to tax revenue is not strong [14]. - Guizhou has established a "6 + 3" industrial system and a "3533" industrial cluster, with key support for industries such as new energy and aerospace high - tech industries, as well as other projects like urbanization, tourism, agriculture, and ecological environmental protection [20][21].
政府债周报:特殊新增专项债已超过八千亿-20250807
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-07 05:05
Government Debt Financing - Net financing for government debt in week 31 (July 28 - August 3) was 402.8 billion, and in week 32 (August 4 - August 10) it was 397.4 billion, totaling 9.2 trillion, exceeding last year's 5 trillion[1] - The cumulative general deficit reached 7.3 trillion, with a progress rate of 61.7%[5] - Net financing for treasury bonds in week 31 was 160.2 billion, and in week 32 it was 314.6 billion, totaling 4.0 trillion, with a progress rate of 60.1%[7] Local Government Debt - Net financing for local government debt in week 31 was 242.5 billion, and in week 32 it was 82.8 billion, totaling 5.2 trillion, exceeding last year's 3.1 trillion[9] - New general bonds issued in week 31 were 20.9 billion, and in week 32 they were 7.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 538.3 billion and a progress rate of 67.3%[9] Special Bonds - New special bonds in week 31 amounted to 183.2 billion, and in week 32 they were 40.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 2.8 trillion and a progress rate of 63.1%[13] - Special new bonds issued reached 806 billion, surpassing the initial target of 800 billion, with 509 billion issued since August, accounting for 98% of new special bonds[13] Risk and Warnings - There is a risk of data statistical errors, with actual issuance potentially differing significantly from planned figures[3]
政府债周报(8、3):2025年特殊再融资债供给已逾1.96万亿-20250804
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-04 09:44
丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 2025 年特殊再融资债供给已逾 1.96 万亿 ——政府债周报(8/3) 报告要点 %% %% [Table_Summary] 7 月 28 日-8 月 3 日地方债共发行 3371.75 亿元。其中新增债 2041.17 亿元(新增一般债 209.13 亿元,新增专项债 1832.04 亿元),再融资债 1330.58 亿元(再融资一般债 631.70 亿元,再 融资专项债 698.88 亿元)。 8 月 4 日-8 月 10 日地方债披露发行 1654.59 亿元。其中新增债 475.49 亿元(新增一般债 72.83 亿元,新增专项债 402.66 亿元),再融资债 1179.10 亿元(再融资一般债 819.06 亿元,再融 资专项债 360.04 亿元)。 分析师及联系人 %% %% [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC:S0490524080003 SAC:S0490524120005 SFC:BVN394 SFC:BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 发行复盘 7 月 28 日-8 月 3 日地方债共发行 ...
地方债周度跟踪:发行继续提速,减国债利差走阔-20250804
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-04 02:43
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased this period but remained at a high level. It is expected that both the issuance and net financing of local government bonds will continue to decline significantly in the next period [2]. - The issuance of new local government bonds continued to accelerate this period. The current cumulative issuance progress is faster than that in the same period of 2024 and comparable to that in the same period of 2023 [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from August to September 2025 is 161.71 billion yuan, with new special bonds amounting to 96.43 billion yuan [2]. - The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened this period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased month - on - month. The current profit - hunting market for local government bonds may be approaching the end [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. This period's local government bond issuance volume decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - This period (2025.7.28 - 2025.8.3) local government bonds issued a total of 337.175 billion yuan (the previous period was 375.755 billion yuan), and the next period (2025.8.4 - 2025.8.10) is expected to issue 165.459 billion yuan. The net financing was 243.062 billion yuan this period (the previous period was 292.39 billion yuan), and the next period is expected to be 82.848 billion yuan [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.39 years, shorter than the 15.17 years of the previous period (2025.7.21 - 2025.7.27) [2][10]. - As of August 1, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 67.2% and 62.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 68.2% and 63.5% [2][18]. - This period, 98.7 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 45.4 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued. As of August 1, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 755.1 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1,881.8 billion yuan, with a issuance progress of 94.1% [2]. 2. This period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened, and the weekly turnover rate decreased month - on - month - As of August 1, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 12.41BP and 14.10BP respectively, widening by 5.65BP and 1.35BP compared with July 25, 2025, and were at the 12.80% and 55.70% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.69%, a month - on - month decrease from 0.74% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Sichuan were better than the national average [2].