Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly update on government bonds, including the issuance of local government bonds, special bonds, and the weighted - average issuance terms [1][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From March 9th to March 15th, local bonds issued a total of 1355.45 billion yuan, including 371.30 billion yuan in new bonds and 984.15 billion yuan in refinancing bonds. From March 16th to March 22nd, local bonds are expected to issue 3422.34 billion yuan, including 1282.78 billion yuan in new bonds and 2139.57 billion yuan in refinancing bonds [1][6][7]. - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: In March 2026, the planned issuance of local bonds across the country is 8674 billion yuan, a decrease of 1143 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The actual disclosed issuance is 7503 billion yuan, with an expected repayment of 4191 billion yuan and a net financing of 4483 billion yuan [9]. 2. Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of March 15th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 29.32%, and that of new special bonds is 20.91% [28]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of March 15th is presented in the relevant chart [33]. 3. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of March 15th, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds total 20000.00 billion yuan, and the fifth - round third - batch totals 7809.53 billion yuan, with an additional 973.17 billion yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round third - batch disclosure are Jiangsu (811.59 billion yuan), Zhejiang (564.00 billion yuan), and Hunan (516.00 billion yuan) [8]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of March 15th, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2026 is 1098.72 billion yuan, and since 2023, it is 26726.28 billion yuan. The top three regions in the 2026 disclosure are Guangdong (151.00 billion yuan), Zhejiang (117.00 billion yuan), and Hunan (103.00 billion yuan) [8]. 4. Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented in the relevant charts, showing the changes from March 8th to March 15th, 2026 [42]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: The regional secondary spreads of local bonds are presented in the relevant chart [43]. - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: The monthly statistics of new special bond investment directions are presented in the relevant chart, with the latest month's statistics only considering issued new bonds [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including actual and forecasted issuance amounts, special bond issuance progress, and issuance term changes [1][5][6] Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Local Government Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **3/9 - 3/15 Forecasted Issuance**: 135.545 billion yuan, including 37.13 billion yuan of new bonds (19.395 billion yuan of new general bonds and 17.734 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 98.415 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (55.256 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 43.16 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5] - **3/2 - 3/8 Actual Issuance**: 272.484 billion yuan, including 82.961 billion yuan of new bonds (4.792 billion yuan of new general bonds and 78.169 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 189.523 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (54.328 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 135.195 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][6] 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: As of March 8, the fifth round, second batch of special refinancing bonds totaled 200 billion yuan, and the fifth round, third batch totaled 78.5955 billion yuan, with an additional 2.2843 billion yuan to be disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth round, third batch were Jiangsu (8.1159 billion yuan), Zhejiang (5.64 billion yuan), and Hunan (5.16 billion yuan) [7] - **Special New Special Bonds**: As of March 8, 2026 special new special bonds totaled 9.4606 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 255.4672 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions were Jiangsu (24.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (13.7769 billion yuan), and Henan (13.2534 billion yuan). In 2026, the top three regions were Zhejiang (1.17 billion yuan), Guangdong (1.096 billion yuan), and Hunan (1.03 billion yuan) [7] 3. Regional Issuance Plans and Actual Issuance - In March 2026, the planned issuance of local government bonds nationwide was 83.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.12 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The actual disclosed issuance was 40.8 billion yuan, with an expected repayment of 41.91 billion yuan and a net financing of 41.14 billion yuan [8] 4. Weighted Average Issuance Term - **3/2 - 3/8**: The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 17.95 years, that of national bonds was 0.54 years, and that of government bonds was 11.79 years [9] - **3/9 - 3/15**: The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 10.15 years, that of national bonds was 0.17 years, and that of government bonds was 2.89 years [9] - **As of March 6, 2026**: The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 17.46 years, an increase of 0.5 years compared to the same period in 2025; that of national bonds was 5.79 years, an increase of 1.4 years; and that of government bonds was 6.12 years, a decrease of 4.1 years [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased this period but are expected to decline next period. The current 10Y and above local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness, but the potential pressure of increased bond supply after the Two Sessions should be vigilant [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds increased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds this period (2026.3.2 - 2026.3.8) was 2724.84 billion yuan/2562.29 billion yuan (2564.20 billion yuan/1894.23 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance/net financing next period (2026.3.9 - 2026.3.15) is 1355.45 billion yuan/632.14 billion yuan [2][6]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 17.95 years, shorter than 21.76 years in the previous period [2][8]. - The issuance spreads of 10/30 - year local government bonds compared with the same - term national bonds increased to 17.45BP/decreased to 21.00BP this period (12.09/23.46BP in the previous period), and the full - field multiples increased [2][9]. - Compared with the same period in 2024 and 2025, the issuance progress of new general bonds this year is slower, but the issuance progress of new special bonds is faster. As of March 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 26.9% and 20.5% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 29.3% and 20.9% [2][10][12]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in March 2026 is 936.2 billion yuan, of which new special bonds are 302.7 billion yuan. As of March 6, 2026, 24 regions have disclosed the planned issuance scale of local government bonds in March 2026, with new special bonds of 302.7 billion yuan [2][20][21]. - This period, the special new special bonds issued 5.6 billion yuan, and the special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts issued 112.6 billion yuan and 0 billion yuan respectively. As of March 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds in 2026 was 105.5 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 792.3 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 39.6%; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 3.6 billion yuan [2][15][16]. 3.2 This period, the spread between local government bonds and national bonds narrowed for 10Y and widened for 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate increased significantly - As of March 6, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and national bonds were 19.90BP and 20.88BP respectively, narrowing by 2.57BP and 0.14BP compared with February 28, 2026, and were at the 52.60% and 80.00% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][23][27]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 1.10%, a significant increase compared with 0.42% in the previous period [2][33]. - This period, the yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Qinghai, Heilongjiang, and Jilin were better than the national average [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased compared to the previous period, but it is expected to decline in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is shortened. The issuance spreads of 10/30-year local government bonds compared to the same-term national bonds changed, and the full - field multiples increased. [2] - Compared with the same period in 2024 and 2025, the issuance progress of new general bonds this year is slower, while the issuance progress of new special bonds is faster. [2] - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in March 2026 is 936.2 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for 302.7 billion yuan. [2] - The special new special bonds issued in the current period are 560 million yuan, and the special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts are 11.26 billion yuan and 0 yuan respectively. [2] - The spread between local government bonds and national bonds narrowed for 10Y and widened for 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate increased significantly. [2] - Currently, local government bonds with a term of 10Y and above still have certain cost - effectiveness, but the potential pressure of increased bond supply after the Two Sessions should be vigilant. [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Increased and the Weighted Issuance Term Shortened - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period (March 2 - 8, 2026) is 272.484 billion yuan (256.420 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance in the next period (March 9 - 15, 2026) is 135.545 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 17.95 years, shorter than 21.76 years in the previous period. [2][9] - The issuance spreads of 10/30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term national bonds in the current period increased to 17.45BP/decreased to 21.00BP, and the full - field multiples increased compared to the previous period. [2][12] - As of March 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 26.9% and 20.5% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 29.3% and 20.9%. Compared with the same period in 2024 and 2025, the issuance progress of new general bonds is slower, while that of new special bonds is faster. [2][16] - As of March 6, 2026, 24 regions have disclosed that the planned issuance scale of local government bonds in March 2026 is 936.2 billion yuan, including 302.7 billion yuan of new special bonds. [2][22] - The special new special bonds issued in the current period are 560 million yuan, and the cumulative issuance in 2026 is 10.55 billion yuan; the special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts have a cumulative issuance of 79.23 billion yuan, with a progress of 39.6%; the special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts have a cumulative issuance of 360 million yuan. [2][18] 3.2 This Period: The Spread between Local Government Bonds and National Bonds Narrowed for 10Y and Widened for 30Y, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Increased Significantly - As of March 6, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and national bonds are 19.90BP and 20.88BP respectively, narrowing by 2.57BP and 0.14BP compared to February 28, 2026, and are at the 52.60% and 80.00% historical quantiles since 2023. [2][33] - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period is 1.10%, a significant increase compared to 0.42% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Qinghai, Heilongjiang, and Jilin are better than the national average. [2][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period decreased compared to the previous period, and it is expected to increase in the next period. The issuance/ net financing in the current period (2026.2.23 - 2026.3.1) was 2564.20 billion yuan/ 1894.23 billion yuan, and the expected issuance/ net financing in the next period (2026.3.2 - 2026.3.8) is 2724.84 billion yuan/ 2562.29 billion yuan [2]. - The issuance progress of new - added local government bonds in 2026 is relatively fast. As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new - added general bonds/ new - added special bonds accounted for 26.3% and 18.7% of the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota), and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 26.9% and 20.5% [2]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period has been extended, and the issuance spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term national bonds have changed, with the full - field multiples decreasing [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and national bonds for 10 - year and 30 - year terms has changed, with the 10 - year spread widening and the 30 - year spread narrowing slightly, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased significantly [2]. - Currently, local government bonds with a term of 10 years and above still have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Period's Local Government Bond Issuance Volume Decreased, and the Weighted Issuance Term was Extended - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period was 2564.20 billion yuan (2026.2.23 - 2026.3.1), compared with 3221.36 billion yuan in the previous period. The expected issuance in the next period is 2724.84 billion yuan [2][6]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 21.76 years, significantly longer than the 15.48 years in the previous period [2][8]. - The issuance spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term national bonds decreased to 12.09BP and increased to 23.46BP respectively, and the full - field multiples decreased compared to the previous period [2][9]. 3.2 Issuance Progress of New - Added Local Government Bonds - As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new - added general bonds accounted for 26.3% of the annual quota, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 26.9%. The cumulative issuance of new - added special bonds accounted for 18.7% of the annual quota, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 20.5% [2][12][15]. 3.3 Special Local Government Bond Issuance - In the current period, the issuance of special new - added special bonds was 53 billion yuan. The special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued at 934 billion yuan and 0 billion yuan respectively. As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative issuance of special new - added special bonds in 2026 was 999 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 6797 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 34.0%; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 36 billion yuan [2][19][20]. 3.4 March 2026 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - As of February 27, 2026, 24 regions have disclosed that the total planned issuance of local government bonds in March 2026 is 9347 billion yuan, including 3067 billion yuan of new - added special bonds [2][21][22]. 3.5 Spread and Turnover Rate of Local Government Bonds - As of February 27, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and national bonds were 22.47BP and 20.74BP respectively, with the 10 - year spread widening by 3.46BP and the 30 - year spread narrowing by 0.66BP compared to February 14, 2026 [2][28][29]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.42%, a significant decrease compared to the previous period's 1.08% [2][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including actual and planned issuance, net supply, and special bond issuance progress [1][5][6] Summaries by Directory 1. Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: Not elaborated in detail in the given text - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: In February 2026, the country planned to issue 8589 billion yuan of local bonds, an increase of 2953 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with actual issuance of 11582 billion yuan. In March 2026, the planned issuance is 9120 billion yuan, a decrease of 697 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025 [8] 2. Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of February 15, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 24.74%, and that of new special bonds was 13.94% [30] - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: As of February 15, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities for the year is presented in a graph [31] 3. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of February 15, the fifth - batch second - round special refinancing bonds totaled 20000.00 billion yuan, and the fifth - batch third - round totaled 6773.85 billion yuan, with an additional 934.00 billion yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - batch third - round disclosure scale are Jiangsu (800.00 billion yuan), Zhejiang (564.00 billion yuan), and Hunan (516.00 billion yuan) [7] - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of February 15, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2026 was 946.06 billion yuan, and since 2023, it has been 25546.72 billion yuan. The top three regions in the total disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2440.35 billion yuan), Hubei (1377.69 billion yuan), and Henan (1325.34 billion yuan). In 2026, the top three regions are Zhejiang (117.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (109.60 billion yuan), and Hunan (103.00 billion yuan) [7] 4. Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented in graphs, showing the spreads and their changes at different maturities [44] - **Regional Secondary Spread**: The regional secondary spreads of local bonds are presented in a graph [45] - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: The monthly investment direction statistics of new special bonds are presented in a graph, with the latest month's statistics only considering issued new bonds [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including issuance forecasts, historical reviews, special bond issuance progress, regional issuance plans and actual issuance, and weighted average issuance terms [1][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Local Government Bond Issuance Forecast and Review - **2/9 - 2/15 Forecast**: Local government bonds are expected to issue 32.2136 billion yuan, including 25.6607 billion yuan of new bonds (6.1593 billion yuan of new general bonds and 19.5014 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 6.5529 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (2.0884 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 4.4645 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5]. - **2/2 - 2/8 Review**: A total of 57.9673 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued, including 20.9811 billion yuan of new bonds (7.5535 billion yuan of new general bonds and 13.4276 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 36.9861 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (4.4282 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 32.5579 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][6]. 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: As of February 8, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 200 billion yuan, and the fifth - round third - batch totaled 58.3985 billion yuan, with an additional 3.3291 billion yuan disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round third - batch are Jiangsu (8 billion yuan), Zhejiang (5.64 billion yuan), and Henan (4.8295 billion yuan) [7]. - **Special New Special Bonds**: As of February 8, 2026 special new special bonds totaled 6.9406 billion yuan, and since 2023, they totaled 255.4672 billion yuan. The top three regions in total disclosure are Jiangsu (24.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (13.7769 billion yuan), and Henan (13.2534 billion yuan). In 2026, the top three regions are Zhejiang (1.17 billion yuan), Guangdong (1.096 billion yuan), and Liaoning (0.8914 billion yuan) [7]. 3. Regional Issuance Plans and Actual Issuance - **February 2026**: The expected issuance is 85.89 billion yuan, an increase of 29.53 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The actual disclosed issuance is 90.18 billion yuan, with an expected repayment of 8.49 billion yuan and a net financing of 69.27 billion yuan. - **March 2026**: The expected issuance is 85.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.01 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The expected repayment is 16.62 billion yuan, and the net financing is 69.27 billion yuan [8]. 4. Weighted Average Issuance Term - This week, the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds is 16.12 years, and next week it is 15.48 years. As of February 6, the weighted average issuance term in February is 16.12 years, a 20.5% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. As of February 6, 2026, it is 17.04 years, a 0.8% decrease compared to the same period in 2025 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period, and it is expected to decline in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period shortened compared to the previous period, and the issuance spreads of 10/30-year local government bonds over the same-term treasury bonds increased, with the overall multiples rising. The issuance progress of new general bonds in 2026 exceeded that of the same period in 2025 but was slower than that in 2024, while the issuance progress of new special bonds was faster. The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is comparable to that in the same period in 2025, with larger planned issuance scales in January and March 2026 due to the late Spring Festival. The current 20 - 30Y local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. The current issuance volume of local government bonds increased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2026.2.2 - 2026.2.8) was 5796.73 billion yuan/5789.27 billion yuan (compared to 4392.75 billion yuan/3108.54 billion yuan in the previous period), and it is expected to be 3221.36 billion yuan/3204.98 billion yuan in the next period (2026.2.9 - 2026.2.15). The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 16.12 years, shorter than 17.31 years in the previous period. The issuance spreads of 10/30-year local government bonds over the same - term treasury bonds increased to 16.63/19.59BP, and the overall multiples increased (20.8 times and 21.2 times in the current period, compared to 19.7 times and 19.1 times in the previous period) [2][9][11]. - As of February 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 17.0% and 11.4% of the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota), and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 24.7% and 15.8%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2025 was 14.0%/4.8% and 15.7%/6.1%, and in 2024 it was 21.6%/5.6% and 21.6%/5.6% [2][13][16]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is 248.85 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025. As of February 6, 2026, 31 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 248.85 billion yuan. The planned issuance scales in January, February, and March 2026 are 84.44 billion yuan (actual issuance of 86.33 billion yuan), 68.32 billion yuan (57.97 billion yuan has been issued in the first week of February, and a total of 90.18 billion yuan is expected to be issued including the next week's forecast), and 96.09 billion yuan, compared to 39.20 billion yuan, 115.99 billion yuan, and 80.81 billion yuan in the same regions in the same period last year [2][23][28]. - The issuance of special new special bonds in the current period was 4.07 billion yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts was 30.24 billion yuan and 0 billion yuan respectively. As of February 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds in 2026 was 6.94 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 55.30 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 27.7%; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 0.36 billion yuan [2][21]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for 10Y and widened for 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate increased - As of February 6, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 19.98BP and 21.90BP, narrowing by 0.90BP and widening by 5.80BP respectively compared to January 30, 2026, and were at the 53.40% and 85.70% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][35][36]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.78%, up from 0.66% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in Shandong, Tianjin, Liaoning and other regions were better than the national average [2][41]. - Currently, 20 - 30Y local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness. Taking the 10 - year local government bond as an observation anchor, the top of the spread adjustment since 2018 may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period, and it is expected to continue to rise in the next period. The current period (January 26 - February 1, 2026) saw a total issuance/net financing of RMB 439.275 billion/RMB 310.854 billion, and the next period (February 2 - February 8, 2026) is expected to be RMB 579.673 billion/RMB 578.927 billion [2]. - As of January 30, 2026, the issuance progress of new general bonds is slower than that in the same period of 2024 and 2025, but the issuance progress of new special bonds is faster. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, the cumulative issuance ratios of new general bonds and new special bonds to the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota) are 17.0% and 11.4% respectively [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is approximately the same as that in the same period of 2025. Due to the late Spring Festival in 2026 (February), the planned issuance scale in January and March is relatively larger. The issuance peak of local government bonds in February may be mainly in the first week, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts will significantly accelerate [2]. - The current 10 - year local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness. Since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period increased, and the weighted issuance term was extended - The total issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period. The current period's issuance/net financing is RMB 439.275 billion/RMB 310.854 billion, and the next period is expected to be RMB 579.673 billion/RMB 578.927 billion [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 17.31 years, which is longer than the previous period's 15.88 years [2][11]. - The issuance spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term treasury bonds decreased/increased to 8.79/16.58BP respectively in the current period, and the full - field multiples decreased/increased [2][12]. - As of January 30, 2026, the issuance progress of new general bonds is slower than that in the same period of 2024 and 2025, but the issuance progress of new special bonds is faster. The cumulative issuance ratios of new general bonds and new special bonds to the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota) are 7.6% and 8.4% respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, they are 17.0% and 11.4% respectively [2][15][19]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is RMB 248.85 billion, which is comparable to that in the same period of 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is relatively larger. The issuance peak of local government bonds in February may be mainly in the first week, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts will significantly accelerate [2][25][30]. - In the current period, 19.1 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 8.39 billion yuan and 0 yuan of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts and repay existing debts were issued respectively [2][23]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds in the current period narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate remained flat - As of January 30, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 20.88BP and 16.10BP respectively, narrowing by 0.14BP and widening by 1.81BP compared to January 23, 2026, and were at the 59.50% and 57.90% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][37][38]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period is 0.66%, which is the same as the previous period [2][44]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in regions such as Ningbo, Qinghai, and Sichuan are better than the national average [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The introduction of special new special-purpose bonds has changed the traditional allocation logic of special-purpose bonds, and the allocation logic has become more complex due to regional economic and fiscal differences and the balance between economic development and "Three Guarantees" [4][7][18]. - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the provincial level generally follows the logic of "following the projects", but in recent years, the explanatory power of objective factors, especially debt risk factors, has decreased, and more attention is paid to management performance and local application factors. Since 2020, the quota allocation has been "tailored to local conditions and precisely targeted", showing regional heterogeneity [9][75][81]. - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the municipal level is more flexible and difficult to fully explain with objective factors. It is speculated that the resource coordination of provincial governments for municipalities will further reduce the explanatory power of objective factors [9][85][88]. - Some provinces have significant deviations in the actual allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas from the theoretical values. Some economic provinces may receive more quotas due to major project construction, while some regions may receive more funds for debt resolution [10][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Special-purpose Bonds as the Main Local Financing Method - The scale of special-purpose bonds has been continuously increasing. As of the end of 2025, the stock of local special-purpose bonds in China was 37 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 70% of the total stock of local government bonds. The net financing of special-purpose bonds increased significantly in 2020 and 2024, and the issuance scale and stock are expected to continue to rise [19]. - Special-purpose bonds can be divided into new special-purpose bonds, refinancing special-purpose bonds, and replacement special-purpose bonds. There are also special refinancing special-purpose bonds and special new special-purpose bonds for debt resolution [21]. 3.2 Deviation between Special-purpose Bond Investment and Physical Workload - In 2024 and 2025, new special-purpose bond funds were mainly invested in transportation infrastructure, municipal and industrial park infrastructure, and other fields. However, there may be a situation where "money waits for projects", and the progress of some special-purpose bond funds in forming physical workload is slow [25][30]. 3.3 Debt Resolution Factors Becoming an Important Consideration in Special-purpose Bond Allocation - The spatial distribution of special-purpose bond stocks is uneven. Since 2023, the marginal changes have reflected the policy orientation of "risk prevention". The issuance of refinancing special-purpose bonds in the western region has increased rapidly, and the proportion of debt resolution funds in key provinces is relatively high [37]. 3.4 Process and Results of New Special-purpose Bond Quota Allocation - **Principles**: New special-purpose bond quota allocation mainly considers five factors: financial strength, debt risk, construction demand, capital efficiency, and local applications, and is adjusted by a fluctuation coefficient. Overall, it follows the principle of "rewarding the excellent and punishing the inferior", but also pays attention to risk prevention [8][47]. - **Results**: There is a positive correlation between the new special-purpose bond quota and the actual in - place investment in fixed assets, but there are also some deviations. The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas can generally reflect the objective situation, but some provinces deviate from the trend, indicating that they may receive more special funds [53][57]. 3.5 Provincial Quota Allocation: From "Extensive Distribution" to "Precise Targeting" - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the provincial level generally follows the logic of "following the projects". In recent years, the explanatory power of objective factors has decreased, and more attention is paid to management performance and local application factors. Since 2020, the allocation logic has shown regional heterogeneity [9][75][81]. 3.6 Municipal Quota Allocation: From "Rewarding the Excellent and Punishing the Inferior" to "Overall Coordination" - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the municipal level is more flexible, and the overall explanatory power of objective factors is weaker. It is speculated that the resource coordination of provincial governments will further reduce the explanatory power of objective factors [85][88]. 3.7 Deviation Calculation: Which Provinces Receive More Special-purpose Bond Funds? - Provinces such as Shandong, Guangdong, Anhui, Tianjin, Gansu, and Xinjiang have a large upward deviation in the actual quota allocation from the theoretical value, while Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have a large downward deviation. Some economic provinces may receive more quotas for major project construction, and some regions may receive more funds for debt resolution [10][90].