本文字数：2113，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 为了稳投资、防风险，地方政府依法举债规模继续创新高，但发行接近尾声，举债增速逐步回落。 根据财政部及机构数据，今年前三季度全国发行地方政府债券合计约8.54万亿元，同比增长约 27%。 目前地方政府合法借钱渠道基本来自发行地方政府债券，为了稳经济今年更加积极的财政政策靠前发 力，地方政府发债进度明显快于去年。这也体现在今年前三季度地方发债借钱规模创新高，且保持两 位数增速（下图为地方政府债券月度发行规模图）。 2025.10. 09 上图来自"企业预警通"（下同） 今年以来地方借钱规模并不小。 财政部数据显示，今年前8个月地方政府广义财政收入（即地方一般公共预算本级收入和地方政府性 基金预算本级收入之和）约10.75万亿元，而前8个月地方借钱规模约7.7万亿元，占广义财政收入比 重约72%。上述广义财政收入并未包含中央对地方转移支付及举债收入等。 那么，地方举借的8.5万亿元究竟花在哪里了？综合官方以及机构数据分析显示， 答案是约六成资金 用于偿还旧债，近四成资金则用于投向重大项目建设。 根据财政部及机构数据，今年前三季度地方政府发行的8.5 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 下周新增债披露发行 593 亿 ——政府债周报（9/28） 9 月 22 日-9 月 28 日地方债共发行 1960.51 亿元。其中新增债 1551.94 亿元（新增一般债 56.04 亿元，新增专项债 1495.90 亿元），再融资债 408.57 亿元（再融资一般债 58.27 亿元，再融 资专项债 350.30 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 9 月 29 日-10 月 5 日地方债披露发行 1071.53 亿元。其中新增债 593.41 亿元（新增一般债 99.20 亿元，新增专项债 494.21 亿元），再融资债 478.11 亿元（再融资一般债 351.78 亿元， 再融资专项债 126.33 亿元）。 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 下周新增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of September 19, 2025, the debt - resolution varieties and special treasury bonds of government bonds are nearly issued, with about 2.1 trillion yuan of remaining varieties to be issued, indicating fiscal room for more efforts. If there is an increase in government bond issuance in Q4, there are several possibilities, and different issuance methods have different requirements and limitations [2][32]. - The urgency of domestic interest - rate cuts at the end of the year is not strong. The 14D reverse repurchase is expected to support a smooth quarter - end transition, and the operation may be more flexible. The Fed's interest - rate cut opens up space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the domestic policy is still "domestically - oriented" [3][57]. - From late September to early October, in order to achieve the annual growth target of 5%, pro - growth policies may disrupt the bond market. For allocation portfolios, when the 10y treasury bond yield is around 1.8%, it gradually becomes cost - effective; trading portfolios need to be cautious [4][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Government Bond Classification, Progress, and Outlook 3.1.1 Types of Debt - Resolution Local Bonds - **Replacement Bonds**: General replacement bonds include replacement bonds (used from 2015 - 2019) and replacement - type refinancing special bonds (used from 2024 - 2026). The 2025 quota of replacement bonds is nearly issued. The replacement bonds in 2015 - 2018 issued 12.2 trillion yuan, and in 2019, 1579 billion yuan was issued. From 2024, the replacement - type refinancing special bonds are used, with 2 trillion yuan per year from 2024 - 2026, and as of September 19, 2025, 19747 billion yuan has been issued [14][19][20]. - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: Since 2020, they have become a new tool for local government debt resolution. The issuance can be divided into four stages, with a total issuance of about 31298 billion yuan. As of September 19, 2025, the 4000 - billion - yuan quota added in October 2024 has accumulated an issuance of 3981 billion yuan, and the existing quota is nearly issued [24][25][26]. - **Special Newly - Added Special Bonds**: Some newly - added special bonds not disclosing "one case and two books" are mainly used for resolving implicit debts. From 2024 - 2028, there is an 8000 - billion - yuan quota per year. As of September 19, 2025, 11506 billion yuan has been issued, and the excess may be used to repay government arrears to enterprises [27][31]. 3.1.2 Current Issuance Progress of Government Bond Varieties and Q4 Outlook - As of September 19, 2025, debt - resolution varieties and special treasury bonds are nearly issued, and the remaining varieties to be issued are about 2.1 trillion yuan. If there is an increase in government bond issuance in Q4, for treasury bonds, raising the quota requires approval from the National People's Congress, and there may be a rush - to - issue phenomenon in advance. Using the remaining quota does not require approval from the National People's Congress, but the current space is limited. For local bonds, the remaining quota and replacement bond quota have been allocated, but issuance requires fiscal approval [2][32][36]. 3.2 Monetary Policy 3.2.1 How to View the Tightening of Funds During the Tax Period and at the End of the Month? - In mid - September, due to the central bank's restrained liquidity injection, tax payments, and the freezing of funds for new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, the funds tightened briefly. Looking forward, funds may gradually ease in the last 7 days of the quarter, and the risk of fund fluctuations is relatively limited [44][47]. 3.2.2 How to Understand the Reform of the 14D Reverse Repurchase Bidding Method? - The 14D reverse repurchase bidding method is changed to multiple - rate bidding, which further strengthens the policy - rate status of the 7D reverse repurchase. The theoretical price is currently 1.55%. The 14D reverse repurchase in September is expected to support a smooth quarter - end transition, and subsequent operations may be more flexible [50][51][52]. 3.2.3 Will China Follow the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut? - The Fed's interest - rate cut opens up space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the domestic policy is still "domestically - oriented". The urgency of domestic interest - rate cuts at the end of the year is not strong, and the focus is on structural policy tools to boost broad credit [57][59][60]. 3.3 Bond Market Strategy - From late September to early October, pro - growth policies may disrupt the bond market. For allocation portfolios, when the 10y treasury bond yield is around 1.8%, it gradually becomes cost - effective; trading portfolios need to be cautious, and appropriate strategies include small - band micro - operations, short - credit coupon income, and waiting for better opportunities [61][65][66]. - Some varieties show cost - effectiveness and can be gradually entered during the adjustment process. According to the three - factor interest - rate bond comparison analysis framework, continue to pay attention to the 6y CDB bonds, 7y local bonds, and 10y CDB bonds. Funds with stable liabilities can pay attention to 20y CDB bonds and 30y treasury bonds [67]. 3.4 Interest - Rate Bond Market Review 3.4.1 Funding Situation - The central bank conducted net OMO injections, and the funding situation was balanced but tight [81]. 3.4.2 Primary Issuance - The net financing of treasury bonds and local bonds decreased, while the net financing of policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [83]. 3.4.3 Benchmark Changes - The term spread of treasury bonds widened, and the term spread of CDB bonds narrowed. The short - end varieties of treasury bonds and CDB bonds performed better than the long - end varieties [78][88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First - level Supply Rhythm - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, local government bonds worth 301.7 billion yuan were issued, including 131.9 billion yuan of new special bonds and 68 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [2][9] - As of September 12, 2025, 41.4 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds were issued in September, accounting for 6.8% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [2][9] - The average issuance interest rate of local bonds continued to rise. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 19BP, 22BP, and 20BP respectively [2][16] - In September, Guangdong, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hebei, Sichuan, Hunan and other provinces were the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of 20 - 30 - year local bonds in Guangdong was close to 60 billion yuan, and the average coupon rates of local government bonds in Hunan, Guangxi, and Jilin were above 2.3% [18] 3.2 Second - level Trading Characteristics - Last week, the weekly fluctuations of 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indices were - 0.41% and - 0.97% respectively. The decline was smaller than that of over - 10 - year treasury bonds and almost the same as that of ultra - long - term credit bonds [3][23] - In terms of provinces, the trading activity of Guangdong government bonds increased, with the weekly trading volume increasing by 127 transactions compared with the previous period. The trading volumes of local bonds in Anhui and Jiangsu decreased significantly [3][23] - In terms of trading returns, the average trading term of Guangdong government bonds was about 27 years, with an average trading return of about 2.31%. The average trading terms of Sichuan and Jiangxi government bonds were close to 25.5 years, and the average trading returns were basically between 2.2% and 2.3% [3][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From September 15th to September 21st, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 18.8519 billion yuan, including 11.8538 billion yuan of new bonds (2.0715 billion yuan of new general bonds and 9.7823 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 6.9981 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (2.3888 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 4.6093 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][4]. - From September 8th to September 14th, the actual issuance of local government bonds is 30.1672 billion yuan, including 14.6601 billion yuan of new bonds (1.4732 billion yuan of new general bonds and 13.1868 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 15.5072 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (8.7045 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 6.8026 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][5]. - As of September 14, 2025, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2025 is 102.7566 billion yuan, and since 2023, the total disclosed amount is 221.8079 billion yuan. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (23.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (12.8769 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (12.7460 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three provinces or municipalities directly under the central government in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (11.89 billion yuan), Guangdong (8.7087 billion yuan), and Yunnan (7.2997 billion yuan) [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Local Debt Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From September 8th to September 14th, the net supply of local government bonds is 19.28 billion yuan; from September 15th to September 21st, the forecast net supply of local government bonds is 3.09 billion yuan [14][17]. - **Comparison between Planned and Actual Issuance**: In August, there are differences between the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds; in September, there are also differences between the disclosed plan and the actual issuance [16][18]. Local Debt Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of September 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 77.18%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds is 75.83% [25]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local government bond maturities as of September 14 shows the net supply situation of refinancing bonds [25]. Special Debt Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of September 14, it shows the issuance statistics of special refinancing bonds in different rounds for various regions [29]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of September 14, it shows the issuance statistics of special new special bonds in 2023 - 2025 for various regions [32]. Local Debt Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: It shows the primary - secondary spread and regional secondary spread of local government bonds [36][37]. - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: It shows the investment direction of new special bonds and the monthly statistics of project investment directions [39].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report presents some basic economic data, including the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment at 1.60%, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the current month at 3.70%, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in the current month at 4.40%, and M2 at 8.80% [4]. Summary by Relevant Categories Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 206.5 billion yuan in the 36th week (9/1 - 9/7) and 608 billion yuan in the 37th week (9/8 - 9/14). As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount reached 10.5 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.7 trillion yuan [1][5]. Treasury Bond and Local Bond - The net financing of treasury bonds was 169.8 billion yuan in the 36th week and 415.2 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 4.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 72.7%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [7]. - Local bond net financing was 36.7 billion yuan in the 36th week and 192.8 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 5.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.9 trillion yuan [9]. New General Bonds and New Special Bonds - New general bonds had 0 net financing in the 36th week and 14.7 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 620.8 billion yuan, with a progress of 77.6%, exceeding the same period last year [9]. - New special bonds had a net financing of 178 billion yuan in the 36th week and 131.9 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 3.3 trillion yuan, with a progress of 74.6%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 112.23 billion yuan had been issued, including 15.43 billion yuan since September. Land reserve special bonds of 32.84 billion yuan had been issued [2][12]. Special Refinancing Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds - Special refinancing bonds had 0 net financing in the 36th week and 26.2 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 1.96 trillion yuan, with a issuance progress of 98% [22]. - Urban investment bonds had a net financing of -36.9 billion yuan in the 36th week and are expected to be -10.9 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds was 10.1 trillion yuan [2][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating, so this part is skipped. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The front - loaded issuance of special refinancing bonds this year was significant. Although the issuance of new special bonds has accelerated, it is not led by project - based bonds. Instead, the issuance progress of debt - resolution bonds leads that of project - based bonds [1]. - Combining the current progress and historical rules, September and October may be the main nodes for the issuance of the remaining new special bonds, and the remaining issuance space is likely to be mainly for project - based bonds [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Debt - resolution Bonds' Issuance Progress Still Leads that of Project - based Bonds - As of August this year, local government bonds totaling 7.7 trillion yuan were issued, including 1.8 trillion yuan of general bonds (1.2 trillion yuan of refinancing general bonds + 0.6 trillion yuan of new general bonds) and 5.9 trillion yuan of special bonds (2.6 trillion yuan of refinancing special bonds + 3.3 trillion yuan of new special bonds). The issuance progress of both new general bonds and new special bonds was 75% [5][6]. - The issuance progress of special refinancing bonds reached 97%, almost completed, with only about 0.1 trillion yuan of issuance space remaining. Special new special bonds showed "over - issuance", possibly related to using some new special bonds to pay off enterprise arrears [8][9][10]. - By the end of August, only 8 regions had not completed the issuance of special refinancing bond quotas, and among the 12 key debt - resolution regions, only Guizhou and Liaoning had not used up their debt - resolution quotas [13]. 3.2 Special Bond Funds Mainly Flow into Three Major Areas - From January to August this year, new special bonds for project returns mainly flowed into three major areas: about 28% went to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, about 18% to transportation infrastructure, and about 14% to land reserves. These three areas accounted for a total of 60%. The top five categories accounted for 83% of the total [16]. - Compared with last year, the proportion of funds flowing into land reserves and affordable housing projects increased. The scale of land reserve special bonds exceeded 30 billion yuan this year, and the proportion of funds flowing into affordable housing projects exceeded that of social undertakings, mainly concentrated in shantytown renovation [17]. 3.3 September and October May Be the Main Nodes for the Issuance of the Remaining New Special Bonds - Although new special bonds reached a new monthly high in July, it was the special new special bonds related to debt resolution that increased in scale, while the monthly issuance scale of project - based ordinary new special bonds was relatively uniform [19]. - The issuance progress of special refinancing bonds and special new special bonds accelerated alternately. The acceleration of special new special bonds was not limited to key debt - resolution regions. Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen issued special new special bonds for the first time this year [20][24]. - The proportion of ordinary new special bonds in key regions was only 33.6% on average, while that in non - key regions reached 74.9%, indicating that debt resolution in key regions squeezed project - based bonds. There is still 1.1 trillion yuan of issuance space for new special bonds, and based on the plans of 21 regions, the issuance scale in September may exceed 300 billion yuan. Considering historical rules, September and October may be the main nodes for the issuance of the remaining new special bonds [26].

Core Viewpoint - Local governments are accelerating borrowing to invest in major projects and repay old debts to boost the economy and mitigate risks [1] Group 1: Borrowing Scale and Purpose - In the first eight months of this year, local governments issued approximately 7.7 trillion yuan in bonds, a year-on-year increase of 42%, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - The borrowing scale is significant, with local government fiscal revenue for the first seven months at about 9.8 trillion yuan, while borrowing reached approximately 6.7 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 70% of the revenue [1] - The primary expenditure of the borrowed funds is for debt repayment, with about 4.77 trillion yuan used for this purpose, representing around 62% of the total borrowing [5] Group 2: Refinancing Bonds - The two main uses of refinancing bonds are to repay maturing government bond principal and to replace hidden debts, effectively extending repayment periods and reducing interest burdens [2] - Nearly 2 trillion yuan of the refinancing bonds issued this year has been allocated to replace hidden debts, which is a key strategy for the central government to mitigate local government debt risks [2] Group 3: Special New Bonds - Of the 3.8 trillion yuan in new bonds issued, approximately 3.3 trillion yuan are special bonds, with a year-on-year increase of 27%, accounting for about 75% of the planned issuance for the year [4] - Special new bonds are also being used to replace hidden debts and repay overdue corporate payments, with the issuance scale exceeding previous market expectations [4][5] - The expected amount for new bonds aimed at resolving overdue corporate payments is around 200 billion yuan [5] Group 4: Investment Allocation - In the first eight months, about 2.3 trillion yuan of new special bond funds were allocated to major project construction, with 28% directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 18% towards transportation infrastructure, and 14% towards land reserves [5][6] - The negative list management approach for special bonds this year has expanded the investment scope, allowing funds to be directed towards land reserves, which totaled approximately 324 billion yuan [6] Group 5: Debt Risk Management - As of July 2025, the total local government debt was approximately 52.76 trillion yuan, remaining within the limit of about 57.99 trillion yuan, indicating that overall debt risk is manageable [6]

政府债净融资第 35 周（8/25-8/31）64 亿，第 36 周（9/1-9/7）2065 亿。截至第 35 周（8/25-8/31）累计 10.3 万亿，超出去年同期 4.5 万 亿。 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 35 周（8/25-8/31）-138 亿，第 36 周 （9/1-9/7）1877 亿。截至第 35 周（8/25-8/31）广义赤字累计 8.6 万 亿，进度 72.1%。 国债第 35 周（8/25-8/31）净融资-2371 亿，第 36 周（9/1-9/7）1698 亿。截至第 35 周（8/25-8/31）累计 4.7 万亿，进度 70.1%。 地方债净融资第 35 周（8/25-8/31）2435 亿，第 36 周（9/1-9/7）367 亿。截至第 35 周（8/25-8/31）累计 5.7 万亿。 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月04日 政府债周报 特殊新增专项债已发行 1.1 万亿 新增一般债第 35 周（8/25-8/31）353 亿，第 36 周（9/1-9/7）0 亿。 截至第 35 周（8/25-8/31）累计 6208 亿，进度 77.6%。 新增专项债第 3 ...

Report Title - 9 月地方债计划发行 7658 亿——政府债周报（8/31） [1][4] Report Core View - 报告对 8 月 25 日 - 9 月 7 日地方债发行情况进行复盘与预告，同时展示特殊债发行进展 [2][4][5] Report Key Points 地方债发行情况 - 9 月 1 日 - 9 月 7 日地方债披露发行 933.91 亿元，其中新增债 178.37 亿元（新增专项债 178.37 亿元），再融资债 755.54 亿元 [2][4] - 8 月 25 日 - 8 月 31 日地方债共发行 3515.97 亿元，其中新增债 2232.89 亿元（新增一般债 353.10 亿元，新增专项债 1879.79 亿元），再融资债 1283.08 亿元 [2][5] 特殊债发行进展 - 截至 8 月 31 日，第四轮特殊再融资债共披露 44093.73 亿元，2025 年已披露 20208.48 亿元，下周新增披露 0.00 亿元，披露规模前三为江苏 5647.00 亿元、湖南 2787.32 亿元、河南 2556.26 亿元 [6] - 截至 8 月 31 日，2025 年特殊新增专项债共披露 4407.33 亿元，2023 年以来共披露 16312.46 亿元，披露规模前三为江苏 2102.35 亿元、湖北 1287.69 亿元、新疆 1188.60 亿元；2025 年披露规模前三为江苏 951.00 亿元、河北 391.43 亿元、湖北 369.13 亿元 [6] 地方债净供给与发行进度 - 8 月 25 日 - 8 月 31 日地方债净供给 2435 亿元，9 月 1 日 - 9 月 7 日地方债预告净供给 367 亿元 [12][13][19] - 截至 8 月 31 日，新增一般债发行进度 77.60%，新增专项债发行进度 74.18% [12][24] 特殊债发行统计 - 展示截至 8 月 31 日特殊再融资债统计情况，包含四轮发行额及各省市数据 [28][29] - 展示截至 8 月 31 日特殊新增专项债统计情况，包含 2023 - 2025 年各省市数据 [31][32] 地方债投资与交易 - 展示地方债一二级利差情况 [35][36] - 展示分区域二级利差情况，涉及多个省市不同时间数据 [37] 新增专项债投向 - 涉及新增专项债投向及项目投向逐月统计 [11][39]