丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 下周新增债披露发行 884 亿 ——政府债周报（01/04） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 1 月 5 日-1 月 11 日地方债披露发行 1176.64 亿元。其中新增债 884.34 亿元（新增一般债 10.00 亿元，新增专项债 874.34 亿元），再融资债 292.30 亿元（再融资一般债 0.00 亿元，再融资专 项债 292.30 亿元）。 12 月 29 日-1 月 4 日地方债共发行 260.00 亿元。其中新增债 145.00 亿元（新增一般债 0.00 亿元，新增专项债 145.00 亿元），再融资债 115.00 亿元（再融资一般债 85.00 亿元，再融资专 项债 30.00 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 下周新增债披露发行 2 ...

[Table_Summary] 12 月 29 日-1 月 4 日地方债披露发行 260.0 亿元。其中新增债 145.0 亿元（新增一般债 0.0 亿 元，新增专项债 145.0 亿元），再融资债 115.0 亿元（再融资一般债 85.0 亿元，再融资专项债 30.0 亿元）。 12 月 22 日-12 月 28 日地方债共发行 20.4 亿元。其中新增债 20.4 亿元（新增一般债 0.0 亿 元，新增专项债 20.4 亿元），再融资债 0.0 亿元（再融资一般债 0.0 亿元，再融资专项债 0.0 亿 元）。 丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 一季度发行计划已披露 1.6 万亿 ——政府债周报（12/28） 报告要点 [Table_Title 一季度发行计划已披露 2] 1.6 万亿 ——政府债周报（12/28） [Table_Summary2] 发行预告 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% ...

化债下半程：成效、动向与展望 证券研究报告 固收 核心观点 随着 2027 年 6 月这一化债关键时点逐渐趋近，市场再度关注起城投债信用 风险。当前化债到达什么程度？后续应关注哪些方面？化债思路预计有何转 变？如何看待 2027 年 6 月后的城投平台？弱区域城投平台是否存在违约的 可能性？针对以上问题，我们梳理总结，并结合地方调研情况，推演城投可 能的趋势与分化路径。 当前化债进度几何？从数据复盘化债成果 从隐债清退、平台名单退出、经营性债务化解、重点省份退出、成本压降、 结构优化及制度建设等多维度看，化债取得明显进展。但地方债务压力依然 较重：一是债务总规模仍高，城投债务与地方债此消彼长，地方全口径债务 总规模已超 120 万亿元。二是多数省份债务率仍在上升。此外，今年化债 资源更加丰富，2 万亿置换隐债专项债已落地，仍有特殊新增专项债、特殊 再融资债在发行进程。但同时，化债也对项目投资产生挤占效应。截至 2025 年 12 月 5 日，今年用于项目投资的新增专项债仅占 58%，相比去年（78%） 下滑，贵州、云南等地新增专项债中用于非项目投资比例超 70%。 化债下半程有何新动向？ 我们总结三大趋势：一 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report mainly focuses on the issuance of local government bonds, including actual and forecasted issuance amounts, progress of new - bond and refinancing - bond issuance, and the issuance details of special bonds. It provides a comprehensive overview of the local government bond market situation from December 15 to December 28, 2025, and the long - term issuance status of special bonds [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - 12/22 - 12/28 local bond forecasted issuance is 204 million yuan, including 204 million yuan of new bonds (0 yuan of new general bonds and 204 million yuan of new special bonds) and 0 yuan of refinancing bonds [1][5]. - 12/15 - 12/21 local bond actual issuance is 4.004 billion yuan, including 3.522 billion yuan of new bonds (596 million yuan of new general bonds and 2.926 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 482 million yuan of refinancing bonds [1][5]. 3.2 Special Bond Issuance Progress - As of 12/21, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds total 200 billion yuan, and the sixth - round special refinancing bonds total 28.81 billion yuan, with 0 yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round second - batch disclosure scale are Jiangsu (251.1 billion yuan), Hunan (128.8 billion yuan), and Henan (122.7 billion yuan) [5]. - As of 12/21, 2025 special new special bonds total 136.6808 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 255.4672 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in the disclosure scale are Jiangsu (24.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (13.7769 billion yuan), and Henan (13.2534 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three regions are Jiangsu (128.9 billion yuan), Guangdong (123.928 billion yuan), and Henan (75.96 billion yuan) [6]. 3.3 Local Bond Net Supply - 12/15 - 12/21 local bond net supply is 2.81 billion yuan, and 12/22 - 12/28 local bond forecasted net supply is - 320 million yuan [13]. 3.4 New Bond Issuance Progress - As of 12/21, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 95.81%, and that of new special bonds is 99.96% [24]. 3.5 Refinancing Bond Net Supply The report provides a chart showing the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities from 2020 to 2025 as of 12/21 [26]. 3.6 Special Bond Issuance Details - Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics: The report details the issuance amounts of special refinancing bonds in different rounds for various regions from 2019 to 2025, including first - round to sixth - round issuances [30]. - Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics: It shows the issuance amounts of special new special bonds in different years for various regions as of 12/21 [33]. 3.7 Local Bond Investment and Trading - One - and Two - Level Spreads: The report presents the one - level and two - level spreads of local bonds on 12/14 and 12/21 [37]. - Regional Two - Level Spreads: It provides the two - level spreads of different regions from 9/12/2025 to 12/19/2025 [38]. 3.8 New Special Bond Investment Direction The report mentions the investment direction of new special bonds, but specific details are not elaborated, only indicating that the latest month's statistics only consider issued new bonds [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.21) decreased significantly compared to the previous period, and the expected issuance and net financing in the next period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) will also decline significantly. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period has lengthened. The issuance of new special bonds has used part of the 500 billion yuan carry - over quota, and the cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original quota. The current spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds shows a narrowing trend for the 10Y and a widening trend for the 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased. Attention should be paid to the cost - effectiveness of 3/10/15Y local government bonds [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period decreased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.21) was 40.037 billion yuan/28.157 billion yuan (compared with 106.955 billion yuan/62.187 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance/net financing in the next period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) is 2.037 billion yuan/- 3.174 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 16.15 years, which was longer than 12.52 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of December 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 96.2% and 103.4% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it remains at 96.2% and 103.4%. The cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original 4.4 trillion yuan quota by 14.95 billion yuan/15.15 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 92.0%/99.7% and 94.5%/99.8%, and in 2023, it was 97.2%/98.0% and 97.3%/98.1% [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in December 2025 is 176.1 billion yuan in total, of which new special bonds are 58.4 billion yuan. As of December 19, 2025, 17 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 176.1 billion yuan, with new special bonds of 58.4 billion yuan. The previous year's issuance in the same regions was 420.3 billion yuan and 800 million yuan, and the national issuance in the same period of the previous year was 1091.3 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan [2]. - In the current period, the issuance of special new special bonds was 1.2 billion yuan, and there was no issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts and repaying existing debts. As of December 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1366.8 billion yuan (1.2 billion yuan in the current period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts was 2000 billion yuan (0 billion yuan in the current period), with the issuance progress reaching 100%, and this year's quota has been fully issued; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 billion yuan carry - over quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 287.5 billion yuan (0 billion yuan in the current period) [2]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds in the current period narrowed for the 10Y and widened for the 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of December 19, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 22.92BP and 21.48BP respectively, narrowing by 1.12BP and widening by 3.35BP compared with December 12, 2025 (which were 24.04BP and 18.13BP respectively on December 12, 2025), and were at the 72.20% and 83.20% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.77%, a decrease compared with 0.86% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Jilin, and Guizhou were better than the national average [2]. - Regarding the cost - effectiveness of local government bonds, taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 下周新增债披露发行 352 亿 ——政府债周报（12/14） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 15 日-12 月 21 日地方债披露发行 400.4 亿元。其中新增债 352.2 亿元（新增一般债 59.6 亿元，新增专项债 292.6 亿元），再融资债 48.2 亿元（再融资一般债 39.2 亿元，再融资专项债 9.0 亿元）。 12 月 8 日-12 月 14 日地方债共发行 1069.6 亿元。其中新增债 710.5 亿元（新增一般债 210.0 亿元，新增专项债 500.5 亿元），再融资债 359.0 亿元（再融资一般债 187.4 亿元，再融资专项 债 171.6 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 下周新增债披露发行 2] 352 亿 ——政府债周报（12/14 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The issuance scale of government bonds using the remaining quota for debt resolution has exceeded 280 billion yuan. The report provides a weekly update on local government bond issuance and special bond issuance progress [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From December 1st - 7th, local bonds were issued at 108.72 billion yuan, including 50.44 billion yuan of new bonds (21 billion yuan of new general bonds and 39.05 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 58.28 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (41.31 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 16.97 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds). From December 8th - 14th, local bonds are expected to be issued at 106.96 billion yuan, including 71.05 billion yuan of new bonds (21 billion yuan of new general bonds and 50.05 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 35.9 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (18.74 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 17.16 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][6] - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: The report shows the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in November and December, as well as the monthly issuance plan, actual issuance, and net financing situation of local bonds from May to December 2025 [20][21] 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - From December 1st - 7th, the net supply of local bonds was 6.05 billion yuan; from December 8th - 14th, the forecast net supply of local bonds is 6.23 billion yuan [16] 3.3 New Bond Issuance Progress - As of December 7th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 92.44%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds was 98.23%. The calculation denominator of the issuance progress includes the 200 - billion - yuan part of the used remaining quota, so it differs from the previous calculation method [25] 3.4 Refinancing Bond Net Supply - The report shows the cumulative scale of the difference between refinancing bonds and local bond maturities from January to December from 2020 to 2025, with the statistical scope including both issued and unissued but disclosed bonds [27][28] 3.5 Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of December 7th, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 200 billion yuan, the sixth - round special refinancing bonds totaled 28.81 billion yuan, and an additional 1.6821 billion yuan was newly disclosed for the next week. The top three provinces or municipalities with separately - planned budgets in the fifth - round second - batch disclosure were Jiangsu (25.11 billion yuan), Hunan (12.88 billion yuan), and Henan (12.27 billion yuan) [6] - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of December 7th, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2025 was 135.0841 billion yuan, and since 2023, the total disclosed amount was 253.8705 billion yuan. The top three in terms of disclosed scale were Jiangsu (24.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (13.7769 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (13.117 billion yuan). The top three provinces or municipalities with separately - planned budgets in 2025 were Jiangsu (12.89 billion yuan), Guangdong (11.9268 billion yuan), and Yunnan (7.2997 billion yuan) [7] 3.6 Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The report shows the primary and secondary spreads of local bonds on December 7th and November 30th, 2025, including spreads for different maturities (1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, 20Y, 30Y) and the overall spread [38] - **Regional Secondary Spread**: The report presents the regional secondary spreads of local bonds, but specific data is not detailed in the text [39] 3.7 New Special Bond Investment Directions - The report shows the investment directions of new special bonds, with the statistics for the latest month only considering the investment directions of issued new bonds and not pre - issuance disclosures [40]

Core Insights - The total issuance of special new bonds reached 1.3583 trillion yuan as of December 5, 2025, with 7.4 billion yuan issued in the current period [1] - The cumulative issuance of refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts has reached 2 trillion yuan, with 1.1 billion yuan issued in the current period, achieving a 100% issuance progress for this year's quota [1] - Since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts has reached 270.6 billion yuan, with 50.2 billion yuan issued in the current period [1] Summary by Region - **Guangdong**: Issued 1.127 billion yuan of special new bonds in 2025, with a total of 4.66 billion yuan for the year, achieving 109.4% of the issuance target [2] - **Shandong**: Issued 472 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 3.521 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 106.0% of the target [2] - **Zhejiang**: Issued 528 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 3.12 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 111.0% of the target [2] - **Jiangsu**: Issued 1.289 billion yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 2.785 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 117.8% of the target [2] - **Sichuan**: Issued 633 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 2.388 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 110.7% of the target [2] - **Henan**: Issued 737 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 2.003 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 105.0% of the target [2] - **Anhui**: Issued 414 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 1.760 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 103.9% of the target [2] - **Hubei**: Issued 459 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 1.872 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 112.7% of the target [2] - **Jiangxi**: Issued 250 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 1.562 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 100.7% of the target [2] - **Hebei**: Issued 702 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 2.177 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 140.5% of the target [2] - **Xinjiang**: Issued 364 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 1.238 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 82.1% of the target [2] - **Hunan**: Issued 615 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 1.461 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 102.6% of the target [2] - **Fujian**: Issued 338 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 1.505 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 105.9% of the target [2] - **Beijing**: Issued 151 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 1.233 billion yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 117.7% of the target [2] - **Tianjin**: Issued 362 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 880 million yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 98.0% of the target [2] - **Yunnan**: Issued 730 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 845 million yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 113.7% of the target [2] - **Ningxia**: Issued 91 million yuan of ordinary/project income bonds, with a total of 213 million yuan of special new bonds issued in 2025, achieving 625.0% of the target [2] Overall Summary - The total issuance of special new bonds across all regions in 2025 reached 1.3583 trillion yuan, with a total of 4.4962 trillion yuan planned for the year, achieving 112.3% of the issuance target [2] - The cumulative issuance of refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 2 trillion yuan, with 100% of the issuance target met [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the issuance of local government bonds, including the issuance scale, types, and progress of different periods, as well as the issuance progress of special bonds [1][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From December 1st to December 7th, local bonds are expected to be issued at 1087.2 billion yuan, including 504.4 billion yuan of new bonds (113.9 billion yuan of new general bonds and 390.5 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 582.8 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (413.1 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 169.7 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds). From November 24th to November 30th, local bonds were issued at 3513.6 billion yuan, including 2340.2 billion yuan of new bonds (87.5 billion yuan of new general bonds and 2252.7 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 1173.4 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (687.7 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 485.6 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5]. - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: The report presents the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in different months and regions through multiple figures, showing the differences between planned and actual issuance in different periods and regions [21][22]. 2. Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of November 30th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 91.02%, and that of new special bonds is 101.81% [27]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The report shows the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of November 30th through a figure [27]. 3. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 30th, the fifth - batch second - round special refinancing bonds total 20000.00 billion yuan, the sixth - round special refinancing bonds total 2712.79 billion yuan, and an additional 513.43 billion yuan will be issued next week. The top three regions in the fifth - batch second - round disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2511.00 billion yuan), Hunan (1288.00 billion yuan), and Henan (1227.00 billion yuan) [5]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 30th, the special new special bonds in 2025 total 13508.41 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 25387.05 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in the disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2440.35 billion yuan), Hubei (1377.69 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (1311.70 billion yuan). The top three regions in the 2025 disclosure scale are Jiangsu (1289.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1192.68 billion yuan), and Yunnan (729.97 billion yuan) [6]. 4. Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The report shows the primary and secondary spreads of local bonds through figures, including the spreads of different maturities and their changes [38]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: The report presents the regional secondary spreads of local bonds through a figure [39]. 5. New Special Bond Investment Direction - **Project Investment Monthly Statistics**: The report shows the investment direction of new special bonds through a figure, and the latest month's statistics only consider the issued new bonds [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased significantly on a weekly basis this period but are expected to decline significantly next period. As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 91.4% and 100.7% of the annual quota respectively, and 92.8% and 101.6% considering the expected issuance next period [4]. - As of November 28, 2025, the issuance of special new special-purpose bonds this period was 541 billion yuan, the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 27 billion yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 788 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance of special new special-purpose bonds reached 13,508 billion yuan, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 19,989 billion yuan with a progress of 99.9%, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts since October 2025 was 2,204 billion yuan [4]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds widened for 10Y and 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate decreased on a weekly basis. As of November 28, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 17.88BP and 22.49BP respectively, up 3.54BP and 4.25BP from November 21, 2025. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.69%, down from 0.80% last period [4]. - Currently, the spreads of 15/20/30Y, especially 15Y, local government bonds over treasury bonds have certain value for investment. Since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Increased and the Weighted Issuance Term Lengthened - This period (November 24 - 30, 2025), the total issuance/net financing of local government bonds was 351.359 billion yuan/326.212 billion yuan (last period was 184.659 billion yuan/126.343 billion yuan), and next period (December 1 - 7, 2025), the expected issuance/net financing is 108.717 billion yuan/60.494 billion yuan [4][11]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 15.41 years, longer than 14.30 years last period (November 17 - 23, 2025) [4][12]. - As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 91.4% and 100.7% of the annual quota respectively, and 92.8% and 101.6% considering the expected issuance next period. The part exceeding 100% may come from the 500 billion yuan of remaining quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17 [4][20]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds in December 2025 is 105 billion yuan in total, including 21.3 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds. As of November 28, 2025, 11 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of 105 billion yuan, compared with 242.6 billion yuan and 8 billion yuan in the same regions and 1,091.3 billion yuan and 21.1 billion yuan nationwide in the same period last year [4][26]. - As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special-purpose bonds was 13,508 billion yuan (54.1 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 19,989 billion yuan (2.7 billion yuan issued this period) with a progress of 99.9%, and 32 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance (only 1.1 billion yuan of quota in Henan remains to be issued); since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 billion yuan of remaining quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 2,204 billion yuan (78.8 billion yuan issued this period) [4][22]. 3.2 This Period: The Spread between Local Government Bonds and Treasury Bonds Widened for 10Y and 30Y, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Decreased on a Weekly Basis - As of November 28, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 17.88BP and 22.49BP respectively, up 3.54BP and 4.25BP from November 21, 2025, and were at the 42.70% and 88.00% historical percentiles since 2023 respectively [4][36]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.69%, down from 0.80% last period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Tianjin were better than the national average [4].