固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 下周新增债披露发行 2241 亿 ——政府债周报（1123） 报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Summary] 11 月 24 日-11 月 30 日地方债披露发行 3296.9 亿元。其中新增债 2241.2 亿元（新增一般债 87.5 亿元，新增专项债 2153.7 亿元），再融资债 1055.7 亿元（再融资一般债 663.9 亿元，再 融资专项债 391.9 亿元）。 11 月 17 日-11 月 23 日地方债共发行 1846.6 亿元。其中新增债 1026.7 亿元（新增一般债 203.6 亿元，新增专项债 823.1 亿元），再融资债 819.9 亿元（再融资一般债 466.6 亿元，再融资专项 债 353.3 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 [Table_Title 下周新增债披露发行 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The transformation effect of market - oriented business entities remains to be seen, and it is difficult to expect significant incremental bond supply. The supply - demand relationship of traditional credit bonds remains tight, and the pricing of outstanding bonds among market - oriented entities may become more differentiated in the future [3][35] - The concentrated opening of amortized open - end bond funds may directly benefit general credit bonds (such as urban investment bonds and industrial bonds), especially 3 - 5Y medium - and long - term credit bonds. High - rated (AAA - and above) medium - term notes are recommended as key trading targets in the future [7][75][76] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Platform Market - Oriented Transformation - **Local Bond Issuance for Debt Resolution** - Special Refinancing Bonds: As of 2025/11/9, 19,934 billion yuan of the 2 - trillion - yuan debt quota allocated in 2025 has been issued, almost fully utilized. Except for Henan, all other regions have completed the issuance of special refinancing special bonds within the annual quota [14] - Special New Special Bonds: As of 2025/11/9, 12,818 billion yuan of special new special bonds have been issued in 2025, exceeding the annual limit of 80 billion yuan. The excess may be used to repay non - implicit debt corporate arrears [20] - **Progress of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Entities Exiting the Platform** - From 2025/1/1 - 11/9, 179 bond - issuing urban investment entities announced exiting the platform. Most provinces have a progress of over 50%, while Liaoning and Guizhou are relatively lagging, and future debt - resolution resources may be tilted towards them [24][27] - **Effect of Platform Market - Oriented Transformation** - The number of market - oriented business entities is increasing, but it has not led to a significant increase in bond financing scale. The reasons may be weak asset quality, cautious regulatory review, and limited investor recognition. The transformation effect remains to be observed [3][34] 3.2 Primary Market - **Net Financing Scale** - This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 154.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.5 billion yuan from last week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 35.9 billion yuan, an increase of 18.5 billion yuan from last week [36] - **Issuance Cost** - The issuance rate of AA industrial bonds increased by 30BP to over 3%. The issuance rates of other different - rated and different - type bonds fluctuated within 15BP compared to last week [45] 3.3 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume** - This week, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 51.8 billion yuan compared to last week. The trading volume of asset - backed securities increased by 1.4 billion yuan [46] - **Yield** - The yields of different - rated and different - term credit bonds fluctuated within 3BP compared to last week [49] - **Credit Spreads** - Except for the slight compression of credit spreads in AA+ electrical equipment, light manufacturing, and automobile industries, the credit spreads of other industries and ratings slightly widened. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and bank capital bonds also had small - scale fluctuations [54] 3.4 This Week's Bond Market News - The implied ratings of 20 bond issues of Lionbridge Financial Leasing (China) Co., Ltd. were downgraded; the implied rating of "Yuanhe 4B" issued by China Power Construction Group Hubei Engineering Co., Ltd. was downgraded; the entity rating of Beijing Aerospace宏图 Information Technology Co., Ltd. was downgraded, and the bond rating of "Hongtu Convertible Bond" was also downgraded [72] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - The central bank achieved a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan this week. Except for a few industries, the credit spreads of most industries and ratings slightly widened. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and bank secondary and perpetual bonds had small - scale fluctuations [74] - The concentrated opening of amortized open - end bond funds may benefit general credit bonds and 3 - 5Y medium - and long - term credit bonds. High - rated medium - term notes are recommended as key trading targets [75][76]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 城投，名单 本报告持续跟踪地方债置换隐债、地方隐债清零和退平台进度，并基于城投债募集资金用途特征、"市场化经营主体"声明等债券发行特征，更新兴业研究 界定的城投名单。具体用于化债的地方债发行规模统计、城投界定名单于兴魔方®（X-CUBE®）同步更新。 特殊地方债：5000亿元地方债结存限额下达，用于化解存量债务风险以及精准扩大有效投资。2025年10月，各地政府发行置换隐债专项债、特殊新增专项 债、特殊再融资债72.6、479.3、449.6亿元（2025年9月分别发行528.0、2349.6、62.3亿元），其中，受益于中央从地方债结存限额中安排5000亿元下达地 方，专项用于化解存量政府投资项目债务、消化政府拖欠企业账款、经济大省符合条件的项目建设，特殊再融资债发行环比增加。2025年1-10月，各地方 政府累计发行置换隐债专项债、特殊新增专项债、特殊再融资债19934.1、12508.4、544.9亿元。 隐债清零进展：据不完全梳理，截至2025年11月5日，共有94个市区县披露在2024、2025年实现隐性债务"清零"，其中，地 ...

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - From November 10 - 16, local government bonds are scheduled to be issued worth 2850.66 billion yuan, including 1519.16 billion yuan of new bonds (125.18 billion yuan of new general bonds and 1393.99 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 1331.50 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (854.25 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 477.25 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][6]. - From November 3 - 9, local government bonds were actually issued worth 916.07 billion yuan, including 452.11 billion yuan of new bonds (0.00 billion yuan of new general bonds and 452.11 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 463.97 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (336.64 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 127.33 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][7]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Local Government Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual Issuance vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: Compares the actual issuance of local government bonds with pre - issuance disclosures, but specific data presentation is mainly through figures [14]. - **Planned Issuance vs. Actual Issuance**: Compares planned and actual issuances of new and refinancing bonds, with specific data presented in figures [16]. - **Local Government Bond Net Supply**: From November 3 - 9, the net supply of local government bonds was - 360 billion yuan; from November 10 - 16, the forecasted net supply is 2428 billion yuan [19]. - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of November 9, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 85.81%, and that of new special bonds was 91.65% [28]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local government bond maturities as of November 9 is presented in a figure [28]. 2.2 Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 9, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 19962.24 billion yuan, the sixth - round totaled 1111.43 billion yuan, with an additional 537.69 billion yuan newly disclosed for the next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round second - batch disclosure were Jiangsu (2511.00 billion yuan), Hunan (1288.00 billion yuan), and Henan (1189.24 billion yuan) [8]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 9, 2025 special new special bonds totaled 12518.43 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 24397.06 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in 2025 were Jiangsu (1189.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1027.48 billion yuan), and Yunnan (729.97 billion yuan) [8]. 2.3 Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: Compares the primary - secondary spreads of local government bonds on November 2 and November 9, presented in figures [40]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: Compares regional secondary spreads of local government bonds, presented in a figure [41]. - **New Special Bond Investment Directions**: Presents the investment directions of new special bonds, with the latest month's statistics only considering issued new bonds, presented in a figure [42].

Report Title - 《一级利差收窄，二级利差走阔——政府债周报（11/02）》 [1][6] Report Summary 1. Issuance Forecast and Review - From November 3rd to November 9th, local government bonds with a total value of 9.1607 billion yuan were scheduled for issuance, including 4.5211 billion yuan in new bonds (0 billion yuan in new general bonds and 4.5211 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 4.6397 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (3.3664 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 1.2733 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][6]. - From October 27th to November 2nd, local government bonds worth 27.0682 billion yuan were issued, including 17.191 billion yuan in new bonds (1.7004 billion yuan in new general bonds and 15.4906 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 9.8772 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (7.7314 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 2.1458 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][6]. 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - As of November 2nd, a total of 199.3409 billion yuan in the second batch of the fifth - round special refinancing bonds and 7.82 billion yuan in the sixth - round special refinancing bonds had been disclosed, with an additional 570 million yuan to be disclosed next week. The top three provinces or municipalities with the largest disclosed issuance amounts in the second batch of the fifth - round were Jiangsu (25.11 billion yuan), Hunan (12.88 billion yuan), and Guizhou (11.76 billion yuan) [6]. - As of November 2nd, 124.4366 billion yuan in special new special bonds for 2025 and 243.223 billion yuan since 2023 had been disclosed. The top three regions in terms of disclosed issuance amounts were Jiangsu (23.4035 billion yuan), Xinjiang (13.117 billion yuan), and Hubei (12.9769 billion yuan). The top three provinces or municipalities in 2025 were Jiangsu (11.89 billion yuan), Guangdong (10.2748 billion yuan), and Yunnan (7.2997 billion yuan) [7]. 3. Local Government Bond Net Supply and Issuance Progress - From October 27th to November 2nd, the net supply of local government bonds was 17.8 billion yuan, while the forecasted net supply from November 3rd to November 9th was - 3.6 billion yuan [11][13]. - As of November 2nd, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 85.81%, and that of new special bonds was 90.63% [11][26]. 4. Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - The first - and second - level spreads of local government bonds showed different trends. The first - level spread narrowed, and the second - level spread widened [1][6]. 5. New Special Bond Investment Directions - The investment directions of new special bonds included transportation infrastructure, energy, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, ecological environment protection, and other fields. The investment amounts varied by month [43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The debt resolution process is deepening, and the exit of urban investment platforms is accelerating. As of October 30, 2025, 1993.409 billion yuan of special bonds for implicit debt replacement have been issued, and special new - added special bonds have exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan in 2025, far exceeding the 877.776 billion yuan in 2024. More than 60% of financing platforms have exited by the end of June 2025 [5][12]. - In the short term, the capital vitality of urban investment is significantly affected by debt resolution, and there is no obvious change with the progress of platform exit. Urban investment bonds continue the net outflow trend and the scale is expanding, mainly due to the significant reduction in weak regions and low - rated entities [5][36]. - In the primary market, new bond issuance of urban investment entities is still blocked after exiting the platform, and the use of raised funds is mainly for debt replacement, with a quarterly proportion of over 70%. Both key and non - key provinces are affected by debt resolution, and the expansion willingness is low [5][26][36]. - In the secondary market, early redemption of urban investment bonds further affects the net supply. From Q1 - Q3 2025, the early redemption scale increased by 7.5 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2024, and the tender offer acquisition increased by 8.1 billion yuan. There are opportunities for early redemption games [6][26][36]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Debt Resolution and Platform Exit Progress - As of October 30, 2025, 1993.409 billion yuan of special bonds for implicit debt replacement have been issued, and except for Henan Province, other regions have completed the issuance within the year. The remaining quota will be used in advance. The issuance of special new - added special bonds has exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan in 2025, far exceeding 877.776 billion yuan in 2024. Non - key debt - resolution regions such as Jiangsu, Guangdong, Hebei, and Hunan have relatively large issuance amounts, and Guangdong, Yunnan, Hebei, and Jiangsu have significant year - on - year increases [5][12]. - By the end of June 2025, more than 60% of financing platforms have exited, indicating a relatively smooth exit process within the policy framework [5][12]. 3.2. Urban Investment Bond Financing Situation - As of October 30, 2025, the net outflow of urban investment bonds is 200.3 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 74.4 billion yuan. Shandong and Guangdong are the main net inflow regions, while Jiangsu, Hunan, Chongqing, and Guizhou have large net outflow scales [18]. - By administrative level, the net outflow is mainly concentrated in district - county and national - level park entities, and the net outflow scale is still expanding year - on - year. The municipal entities have changed from net inflow to net outflow, while the provincial entities have little change [19]. - By rating, the net outflow is mainly concentrated in AA and AA+ entities. The AA entities continue the large - scale net outflow in the same period of 2024, and the AA+ entities have changed from net inflow to net outflow [20]. 3.3. Reasons for the Increase in Net Outflow of Urban Investment Bonds - Primary market: New bond issuance of urban investment entities is still blocked after exiting the platform. The use of raised funds is mainly for debt replacement, with a quarterly proportion of over 70% and a slight increase compared with 2024. Most provinces, especially key provinces, mainly use bond issuance for debt replacement. Non - key provinces are also affected by debt resolution, and the expansion willingness is low [26]. - Secondary market: Early redemption of urban investment bonds further affects the net supply. From Q1 - Q3 2025, the early redemption scale increased by 7.5 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2024, and the tender offer acquisition increased by 8.1 billion yuan. The proportion of urban investment bonds redeemed at face value in Q1 - Q3 2025 is significantly lower than that in the same period of 2024, and there are opportunities for early redemption games [6][26][27]. 3.4. Summary - In the short term, the capital vitality of urban investment is significantly affected by debt resolution, and there is no obvious change with the progress of platform exit. Urban investment bonds continue the net outflow trend and the scale is expanding, mainly due to the significant reduction in weak regions and low - rated entities [36]. - In the primary market, new bond issuance is still blocked, and the use of raised funds is mainly for debt replacement. In the secondary market, early redemption affects the net supply, and there are opportunities for early redemption games [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 10月27日至11月2日地方债披露发行2706.82亿元，其中新增债1719.10亿元，再融资债987.72亿元 [1][5] - 10月20日至10月26日地方债共发行2472.28亿元，其中新增债1136.52亿元，再融资债1335.76亿元 [1][6] - 截至10月26日，第五轮第二批特殊再融资债共披露19934.09亿元，第六轮特殊再融资债共披露544.89亿元，下周新增披露245.84亿元；2025年特殊新增专项债共披露12379.89亿元，2023年以来共披露24258.52亿元 [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - 10月20日至10月26日地方债净供给1658亿元，10月27日至11月2日地方债预告净供给1780亿元 [15] - 展示9月和10月地方债计划与实际发行情况，以及地方债近月发行计划与实际发行、净融资情况 [16][23] Local Bond Net Supply - 截至10月26日，新增一般债发行进度83.69%，新增专项债发行进度87.11% [28] - 截至10月26日，再融资债减地方债到期当年累计规模情况展示 [29] Special Bond Issuance Details - 截至10月26日，特殊再融资债统计情况展示，包括各轮发行额及各地区情况 [34] - 截至10月26日，特殊新增专项债统计情况展示，包括2023 - 2025年各地区情况 [37][38] Local Bond Investment and Trading - 展示地方债一二级利差及分区域二级利差情况 [41][42] - 展示新增专项债投向情况，最新月份统计只考虑已发行的新增债 [43]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the issuance of local government bonds, including the actual and forecasted issuance amounts, the progress of special refinancing bonds and special new special - purpose bonds, and the comparison between planned and actual issuance. It also presents data on local government bond net supply, investment, and trading, as well as the investment directions of new special - purpose bonds [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From October 20th to October 26th, the planned issuance of local bonds is 2472.28 billion yuan, including 1136.52 billion yuan of new bonds (12.91 billion yuan of new general bonds and 1123.61 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds) and 1335.76 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (651.36 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 684.40 billion yuan of refinancing special - purpose bonds). From October 13th to October 19th, the actual issuance of local bonds is 323.01 billion yuan, including 200.91 billion yuan of new bonds (0.00 billion yuan of new general bonds and 200.91 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds) and 122.10 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (24.96 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 97.14 billion yuan of refinancing special - purpose bonds) [1][5][6]. - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: Comparisons are made between the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in September and October 2025, and for different regions and bond types [15][20][21]. 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of October 19th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 83.53%, and that of new special - purpose bonds is 84.55% [26]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The report shows the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of October 19th [27]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of October 19th, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds total 20235.13 billion yuan, with an additional 214.00 billion yuan to be added next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2511.00 billion yuan), Guizhou (1324.32 billion yuan), and Hunan (1290.00 billion yuan) [7]. - **Special New Special - Purpose Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of October 19th, 2025 special new special - purpose bonds total 12029.16 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 23907.80 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2340.35 billion yuan), Xinjiang (1311.70 billion yuan), and Hubei (1287.69 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three regions are Jiangsu (1189.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1027.48 billion yuan), and Yunnan (729.97 billion yuan) [7]. 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The report presents the primary and secondary spreads of local bonds, as well as the regional secondary spreads [40][41]. 3.5 New Special - Purpose Bond Investment Directions - **Monthly Project Investment Statistics**: The investment directions of new special - purpose bonds are presented, with the latest month's statistics considering only issued new bonds [42].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of the recent fiscal policy changes, particularly the allocation of 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit, which is expected to directly support project construction in major economic provinces and facilitate credit expansion [5][11][38]. Group 1: Fiscal Data Overview - In September, the broad fiscal revenue increased by 3.2% year-on-year, compared to 0.3% in August, while broad fiscal expenditure rose by 2.3% year-on-year, down from 6% in August [2]. - The tax revenue growth reached a new high for the year at 8.7%, indicating strong fiscal performance [5][22]. Group 2: Understanding the Debt Balance Limit - The local government debt balance limit refers to the difference between the legally permitted debt limit and the actual debt balance, which allows for additional borrowing capacity [7][25]. - By the end of 2023, the local debt limit was 42.17 trillion yuan, with a balance of 40.74 trillion yuan, resulting in a balance limit of 1.43 trillion yuan [10][27]. Group 3: Purpose of the 500 Billion Yuan Allocation - The allocation of the 500 billion yuan is aimed at supporting major economic provinces to achieve their development goals and stabilize the economic recovery [11][29]. - This year's allocation is not primarily focused on meeting fiscal budget targets, as tax revenue has shown resilience, leading to a potential budget surplus [11][28]. Group 4: Implications of the Allocation - The 500 billion yuan allocation, combined with another 500 billion yuan from new policy financial tools, effectively provides a trillion yuan in additional fiscal resources for local governments [6][41]. - This funding can now be used for project construction in major economic provinces, marking a shift from previous years where it was limited to debt repayment and clearing arrears [16][38]. Group 5: Observations on Fiscal Performance - The article notes that tax revenue growth has been driven by price-related taxes and personal income tax, with significant contributions from the computer and communication equipment sectors [45][47]. - The government fund income growth turned positive in September, primarily due to a narrowing decline in land sales revenue [67].

Group 1: Fiscal Data Overview - In September, general fiscal revenue increased by 3.2% year-on-year, compared to 0.3% in August[1] - General fiscal expenditure in September rose by 2.3% year-on-year, down from 6% in August[1] - Tax revenue growth reached a year-to-date high of 8.7% in September, indicating strong fiscal performance[2] Group 2: Debt Limit and Policy Changes - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support local projects, exceeding last year's allocation of 400 billion yuan[2] - The total debt limit for local governments was 42.17 trillion yuan at the end of 2023, with a balance of 40.74 trillion yuan, resulting in a remaining limit of 1.43 trillion yuan[5] - By the end of 2024, the debt limit is expected to increase to 52.8 trillion yuan, allowing for a remaining limit of 5.3 trillion yuan after accounting for debt replacement policies[5] Group 3: Economic Support and Investment - The 500 billion yuan allocation aims to bolster economic recovery and support local governments in achieving their development goals[6] - The policy shift allows for the use of debt limits not only for debt repayment but also for project construction, directly aiding credit expansion[9] - The combination of the 500 billion yuan debt limit and an additional 500 billion yuan in quasi-fiscal funds provides a total of 1 trillion yuan in fiscal support for local projects[10] Group 4: September Fiscal Insights - Tax revenue growth was primarily driven by domestic value-added tax and corporate income tax, contributing significantly to overall revenue[41] - Government fund income showed a positive growth of 5.6% in September, with a notable reduction in the decline of land sale revenue to -1%[64] - The overall fiscal expenditure growth rate was 3.1% in September, with infrastructure spending showing signs of recovery[58]