场外杠杆

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当前A股杠杆水平如何?最新调查来了
财联社· 2025-08-24 14:36
Core Viewpoint - The current leverage levels in the A-share market are significantly lower than historical peaks, indicating a more stable and controlled risk environment compared to the "leverage bull" market of 2014-2015 [1][2]. Group 1: On-Site Leverage - Since August 11, the financing balance in the A-share market has exceeded 9 consecutive trading days, indicating active trading with leverage funds [2][3]. - The financing balance as a percentage of the circulating market value remains low, fluctuating between 2.23% and 2.35%, well below the historical peak of 4.72% [3][4]. - The proportion of financing purchases to A-share transaction volume is stable, typically ranging from 6% to 9%, and currently remains below the historical high of 19.26%, suggesting a healthy trading structure [3]. Group 2: Off-Site Leverage - The scale of off-site leverage has significantly shrunk, with stricter regulations in place, although there are signs of structural changes [5][6]. - There has been an increase in inquiries and business volume related to off-site options, indicating a resurgence of interest among risk-tolerant investors [6][7]. - Despite the rise in off-site options, compliance risks and payout issues remain significant barriers to expansion in this market [8]. Group 3: Credit Funds - There are indications of potential violations regarding the use of credit funds in the stock market, although the actual scale of such inflows appears limited [9][10]. - In July, the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, with stock financing increasing by 27.4 billion yuan, suggesting some credit funds may be entering the market [9]. - Data indicates that the actual scale of credit funds entering the stock market is minimal, with negative growth in household short-term loans suggesting limited avenues for such inflows [10][11]. Group 4: Overall Activity of Off-Site Leverage - The overall activity level of off-site leverage is low, as indicated by negative growth in entrusted loans and limited increases in structured trust financing [12][13]. - The correlation between A-share transaction volume and on-site financing balance growth suggests that off-site leverage is contributing minimally to market activity [14]. - Search interest in keywords related to financing has decreased significantly, indicating weak demand for off-site leverage [17].