E 泰君安期货 GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 地缘政治爆发下 贵金属板块点评 地缘政治是本周贵金属交易的核心。周末美伊以冲 突爆发，据伊朗媒体1日报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队就 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊殉职发表声明，称将"严惩凶 手"。近期黄金走势高度依赖于地缘政治格局，其余因 素影响较为钝化,而周末暗盘黄金一度涨至前高,但随 着美以"速战速决"且伊朗反抗力度不及预期，黄金回 吐涨幅，周末来看涨幅不到1%。后续地缘政治关键在 于两点：一是伊朗新政权是革命党扶持新人选还是由美 国的扶持，这必然导致一段时间的内斗，以及伊朗对美 以的打击报复力度。二是以霍尔木兹海峡为核心的油气 运输要地是否会持续关闭，直接影响到通胀表现。 我们判断下周贵金属或将高开，如果地缘政治格局 没有进一步发酵，黄金可能走出高开低走的格局，但是 我们仍然认为黄金中枢将上移，地缘风险溢价或有一定 的持续性。 铂把方面，尽管在1970年以来几次地缘冲突爆发2 个月后铂把的表现均偏弱，但若黄金白银均出现脉冲式 上涨，铂把亦有可能跟随，预计铂金在避险叙事上的表 现同样会强于把金。基于高频数据疲软，目前ETF流出 的幅度暂不构成趋势反转的核心信号， ...

绪论 1.1 研究背景 近年来，中国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段，产业结构调整与新旧动能转换进入关键期。在复杂的全球 地缘政治格局与国内经济周期性调整的叠加影响下，大宗商品价格波动加剧，汇率与利率风险日益显现。在这一宏观 背景下，实体经济对于规避价格波动风险、实现稳健经营的需求显著增强。金融体系的使命已不再局限于传统的融资 支持，而是向"融资与风险管理并重"的功能深化。期货及衍生品市场作为现代金融体系的重要组成部分，其在价格发 现、风险管理和资源配置中的作用不断凸显，成为服务国家战略、保障产业链供应链安全的重要力量（Sun et.al， 2023；宋凌峰和叶翰章，2023；徐君和龚旭，2025）。 长期以来，我国期货市场曾被视为相对小众、以投机交易为主的市场。然而，随着监管制度持续完善、法治化建设不 断推进以及制度型开放的深入，期货市场的功能定位逐步回归并强化，市场在服务实体经济中的"减震器"和"稳压 器"作用日益得到认可（全国人民代表大会常务委员会，2022；卢米雪等，2021）。与此同时，市场工具体系持续丰 富、覆盖行业不断拓展，使得期货市场从单一的风险对冲场所，逐渐演变为大类资产配置的重要组成 ...

2025年以来，全球地缘局势冲突持续、大宗商品价格波动，叠加物流秩序扰动，实体企业尤其是中小微 企业陷入成本难控、经营承压的困境，期货市场作为风险管理核心平台，成为缓解企业经营压力、稳定 市场预期的关键力量。 华西期货总经理魏哲平日前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，针对中小微企业经营中的痛点问题，期 货行业可通过"保险+期货"、基差贸易等定制化服务寻求突破，通过工具创新为企业筑起风险"防护 墙"。同时，行业还需进一步加强投资者教育、加速政策落地，推动期货服务从"单一工具供给"向"一站 式风险管理方案"升级，助力实体企业穿越市场周期、提振经营信心，让期货真正成为实体企业稳健经 营的"硬核支撑"。 国际局势不确定性增加 原材料价格波动成企业核心风险 谈及当前实体企业面临的经营压力时，魏哲平首先关注国际形势带来的连锁反应。2025年以来，全球地 缘局势复杂交织：俄乌冲突持续，中东局势虽有所缓和但局部冲突仍未平息，红海地区各类突发事件频 发。一系列不稳定因素直接冲击大宗商品市场——石油价格剧烈震荡，黄金、白银价格屡创新高，铜、 铝等工业金属价格持续攀升，而海上物流运价的波动更进一步扰乱全球贸易与本土贸易秩序。 从行业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and commodity price fluctuations since 2025 have put significant operational pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), making the futures market a crucial platform for risk management and stabilizing market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Current Challenges for Enterprises - The complex international situation, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and regional tensions, has led to significant volatility in commodity prices, impacting the operational stability of SMEs [2]. - Enterprises are facing dual pressures from raw material price fluctuations and logistics uncertainties, which are exacerbated for SMEs due to limited financial resources and expertise [2]. Group 2: Role of the Futures Market - The futures market serves as a "risk firewall" for enterprises, allowing producers and traders to lock in sales prices through short-selling futures contracts, thus stabilizing expectations and restoring confidence in investment and production [3]. - The dual attributes of the futures market—commodity trading and financial investment—are essential for helping enterprises manage price volatility and operational risks [3]. Group 3: Customized Services for SMEs - The futures industry is innovating through customized services like "insurance + futures" and basis trading to address the specific risk management needs of SMEs [4][5]. - In 2024, the "insurance + futures" model provided 2.8 billion yuan in price risk protection for agricultural products across multiple provinces, demonstrating its effectiveness in mitigating price volatility [4]. - The basis trading model allows enterprises to lock in prices for livestock while managing cash flow, thus alleviating financial pressure and enabling a focus on operational improvements [5][6]. Group 4: Enhancing Futures Market Integration - Despite the successes, challenges remain in terms of awareness, tool adaptation, and policy implementation, which need to be addressed to fully integrate futures services into the real economy [7][8]. - The industry faces a shortage of skilled professionals who understand both the industry and financial aspects, which hinders SMEs' ability to effectively utilize futures for risk management [7]. - There is a need for more comprehensive policies and support mechanisms to facilitate the adoption of futures tools by enterprises, including the introduction of more commodity futures contracts [8].

2025年以来，全球地缘局势冲突持续、大宗商品价格波动，叠加物流秩序扰动，实体企业尤其是中小微 企业陷入成本难控、经营承压的困境，期货市场作为风险管理核心平台，成为缓解企业经营压力、稳定 市场预期的关键力量。 华西期货总经理魏哲平日前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，针对中小微企业经营中的痛点问题，期 货行业可通过"保险+期货"、基差贸易等定制化服务寻求突破，通过工具创新为企业筑起风险"防护 墙"。同时，行业还需进一步加强投资者教育、加速政策落地，推动期货服务从"单一工具供给"向"一站 式风险管理方案"升级，助力实体企业穿越市场周期、提振经营信心，让期货真正成为实体企业稳健经 营的"硬核支撑"。 "作为国民经济根基的实体企业，正面临着原材料价格波动与物流不确定性的双重挤压。"魏哲平举例 道，农业领域的生猪养殖户面临"猪周期"与饲料成本上涨的叠加压力，制造业企业也因铜、铝等原材料 价格波动导致生产计划频繁调整，中小微企业尤其因资金有限、专业能力不足，在风险面前更显被动。 这种不确定性不仅影响企业短期盈利，更削弱了市场主体对未来的预期。 而期货市场的价值，恰恰在于为企业构筑"风险防火墙"。魏哲平表示，期货市场兼具商 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The introduction of the first derivative trading regulations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is expected to enhance the leverage capacity of brokerage firms, supporting the steady development of the derivatives market and encouraging risk management activities [7][10]. - The derivatives business is projected to optimize revenue structures and enhance the anti-cyclical capabilities of brokerage firms, as it is driven by client needs and capital intermediation rather than relying on directional market returns [7][10]. - The report highlights that the derivatives market in China has significant room for growth compared to overseas markets, with the scale of over-the-counter derivatives increasing from 0.32 trillion CNY in 2015 to 2.38 trillion CNY in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% [7][10]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Developments - On January 16, 2026, the CSRC released the "Interim Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Derivative Trading (Draft for Comments)," which aims to regulate derivative trading venues and institutions, and implement counter-cyclical management [7][10]. - The regulations encourage the use of derivatives for hedging and resource allocation while limiting excessive speculation [10]. Market Opportunities - The derivatives business is expected to create a "stronger stronger" moat for brokerage firms that can provide high-level services, including trading pricing, hedging, and risk control capabilities [7][10]. - The report suggests that leading institutions have significant room to increase leverage, especially in the context of continuous inflows of new capital and favorable industry policies [7][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brokerage firms with strong balance sheets, outstanding trading capabilities, and extensive coverage of domestic and international institutional clients, such as Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, CICC, and CITIC Securities [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing five key professional capabilities to transform into a first-class modern investment bank, as articulated by Liu Jian, the Chairman of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. This transformation is essential for supporting the development of the capital market and contributing to the construction of a financial power [1][13]. Group 1: Value Discovery Capability - Value discovery is identified as the first step in optimizing resource allocation in the capital market, necessitating higher professional discernment and value extraction capabilities from securities firms [2][14]. - Liu Jian highlights the need for securities companies to fulfill their role as gatekeepers by adapting due diligence systems to new technologies and business models, thereby enhancing the market's inclusivity and adaptability [2][14]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities has been recognized as an A-class firm in the 2024 evaluation of securities companies' investment banking quality, reflecting its commitment to improving professional standards [2][14]. Group 2: Product Creation Capability - The article discusses the necessity of enhancing product creation capabilities to better serve residents' wealth management needs, particularly in the context of transitioning from traditional brokerage to wealth management [5][17]. - Liu Jian stresses the importance of developing diverse, high-quality products that align with customer needs, particularly focusing on low-volatility, allocation-type products to meet long-term stable return expectations [5][17]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities has successfully issued various innovative financial products, providing a wider range of options for both individual and institutional investors [5][17]. Group 3: Risk Pricing Capability - The article underscores the significance of risk pricing in enhancing China's capital market's discourse power, especially as new technologies and assets emerge [7][19]. - Liu Jian advocates for securities firms to innovate valuation methodologies that accommodate the unique risk-return characteristics of new technologies and assets, thereby improving pricing rationality [7][19]. - The goal is to establish a pricing system that not only solidifies domestic core asset pricing power but also enhances international influence in asset valuation [7][20]. Group 4: Global Allocation Capability - The article highlights the need for securities firms to enhance their global resource allocation capabilities to better serve both Chinese investments and foreign investments in China [9][21]. - Liu Jian emphasizes the importance of creating a comprehensive cross-border financial service system that facilitates investment in China and supports Chinese investments abroad [9][22]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities has actively engaged in cross-border investment banking, successfully assisting several competitive technology companies in their listings [9][22]. Group 5: Reputation Management Capability - Reputation is deemed fundamental for the survival and development of the financial industry, with securities firms' integrity and public image directly impacting market confidence [11][23]. - Liu Jian asserts that reputation management should be deeply embedded in corporate governance and culture, promoting a healthy market environment [11][23]. - The article calls for securities firms to leverage their expertise to stabilize market expectations and build investor confidence through objective and insightful analyses [11][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the role of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities in supporting specialized and innovative enterprises in the capital market, highlighting its commitment to becoming a leading modern investment bank and enhancing its service capabilities in various dimensions [1][2]. Group 1: Value Discovery Capability - Value discovery is identified as the first step in optimizing resource allocation in the capital market, necessitating enhanced professional discernment and value extraction capabilities from securities firms [2]. - The company aims to cultivate and select high-tech and quality enterprises during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, thereby improving market inclusivity and adaptability [2]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities has been recognized as an A-class firm in the 2024 securities company investment banking business quality evaluation, reflecting its commitment to improving professional standards [2]. Group 2: Product Creation Capability - The company is focused on enhancing its product creation capabilities to better serve residents' wealth management needs, addressing challenges such as insufficient product supply and lack of stable long-term returns [4]. - It aims to provide a diverse range of low-volatility, allocation-type products to meet investors' demand for stable returns [5]. - The transition from traditional brokerage services to a buyer-oriented wealth management model is seen as crucial for enhancing investor satisfaction and trust [5]. Group 3: Risk Pricing Capability - Improving risk pricing capabilities is essential for enhancing China's capital market's influence and ensuring financial security [6]. - The company is tasked with developing innovative valuation methodologies that adapt to new technologies and economic conditions, thereby improving the pricing of new assets [6][7]. - It aims to guide listed companies in disclosing key information to reduce investor cognitive risks and promote rational price discovery [6]. Group 4: Global Allocation Capability - The company recognizes the need to enhance its international business capabilities to match China's economic scale and openness, facilitating foreign investment in China [8]. - It aims to create a comprehensive cross-border financial service system that serves both domestic and international markets [8]. - The focus is on optimizing its international network and strengthening cross-border investment banking expertise to support Chinese enterprises' growth globally [9]. Group 5: Reputation Management Capability - Reputation is deemed fundamental for the survival and development of the financial industry, with a focus on embedding compliance and professionalism into the company's culture [11]. - The company is encouraged to leverage its expertise to stabilize market expectations and build investor confidence through objective and insightful analyses [11][12]. - It aims to communicate rational and professional insights to both domestic and international markets, reinforcing its role as a trusted intermediary in the capital market [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the role of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities in supporting specialized and innovative enterprises in the capital market, highlighting its commitment to becoming a leading modern investment bank through enhanced professional capabilities and services [1][8]. Group 1: Value Discovery Capability - Value discovery is identified as the first step in optimizing resource allocation in the capital market, necessitating higher professional discernment and value extraction capabilities from securities firms [1][2]. - The company aims to cultivate and select more hard technology and quality enterprises during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, enhancing market inclusivity and adaptability [2]. Group 2: Product Creation Capability - The enhancement of product creation capabilities is crucial for better serving residents' wealth management needs, addressing challenges such as insufficient product supply and lack of stable long-term returns [3][4]. - The company is focused on providing diverse, high-quality products and adopting a buyer-oriented investment advisory service model to meet investor demands for stable returns [3][4]. Group 3: Risk Pricing Capability - Improving risk pricing capabilities is essential for enhancing China's capital market's influence and ensuring financial security amid the rise of new economic sectors [5][6]. - The company is tasked with innovating valuation methodologies to adapt to new technologies and business models, thereby reducing investor cognitive risks [5][6]. Group 4: Global Allocation Capability - The company recognizes the need to enhance its international business capabilities to match China's economic scale and openness, facilitating foreign investment in China [6]. - It aims to establish a comprehensive cross-border financial service system to support both inbound and outbound investments [6]. Group 5: Reputation Management Capability - Reputation management is deemed fundamental for the survival and development of the financial industry, with a focus on embedding compliance and professionalism into the company's culture [7]. - The company is committed to maintaining high-quality professional output and actively contributing to market stability and investor confidence [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in pork prices in China has improved the income of farmers but has also highlighted the financing challenges faced by small and medium-sized livestock farmers, prompting banks to innovate credit services and enhance financial support for the livestock industry [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends and Impacts - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets rose to 18.04 yuan per kilogram, marking a 1.2% increase from the previous day [1]. - The rise in pork prices is attributed to a seasonal improvement in supply and demand, with winter consumption and upcoming Spring Festival demand boosting pork consumption [2]. - While higher pork prices increase farmers' sales revenue and profit levels, they also raise costs for piglets and feed, leading to a greater need for working capital [2]. Group 2: Financing Needs and Solutions - Farmers' core financing needs include funds for daily operational expenses, long-term investments in infrastructure, and technology upgrades for environmental and smart farming [2]. - Financial institutions are addressing these needs by providing innovative credit solutions, such as pure credit financing and expedited loan approvals through rural revitalization financial channels [3]. - The use of technology, such as AI for real-time data collection and valuation of livestock, is becoming crucial for improving the accuracy and efficiency of collateral assessments [3][4]. Group 3: Innovative Financing Models - The promotion of livestock collateral financing is encouraged by recent policy initiatives, which aim to establish recognized valuation standards and dynamic monitoring systems for livestock [4][5]. - A proposed "insurance + futures + credit" model suggests that farmers can purchase price insurance, which can then be used as collateral for low-interest loans from banks, thereby sharing risk among stakeholders [5]. - Banks are encouraged to extend their services beyond the farming sector to include financing for upstream suppliers and downstream processing companies, thereby reducing credit barriers for farmers [5].