坏账冲回

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粤高速A(000429):广佛代垫支出妥善解决,拟冲回坏账
HTSC· 2025-03-16 03:21
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 15.59 [6]. Core Views - The company has resolved the funding source for the operational maintenance costs of the Guangfo Expressway, which will allow it to reverse the bad debt provision of RMB 343 million by the end of 2024, positively impacting profitability in 2025 [1][3]. - The expected dividend payout ratio of 70% for 2025-2027 suggests attractive dividend yields of 4.7%, 4.2%, and 3.8% respectively [1]. - The recent adjustments in the bond market and increased risk appetite in the stock market have put pressure on valuations for highway stocks, yet the company's dividend yield remains appealing [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company plans to reverse the bad debt provision, which could increase the net profit attributable to the parent company by approximately RMB 257 million in 2025 [3]. - The company has previously made full provisions for the operational maintenance costs from 2022 to 2024 due to unclear funding sources, leading to a total bad debt provision of RMB 343 million by the end of 2024 [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards by 21.8%, 6.4%, and 6.3% to RMB 1.879 billion, RMB 1.650 billion, and RMB 1.502 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of +20%, -12%, and -9% [4]. - The target price of RMB 15.59 is derived from a combination of DCF and PE valuation methods, reflecting a WACC of 4.2% and an equity IRR of 6.2% [4].