Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply of iron ore has slightly declined but remains high. The downstream profit has significantly decreased, and demand may continue to decline. However, the inventory of downstream finished products is still being reduced. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, but the high basis recently may suppress the weakness of futures prices [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments have declined but are still significantly high. Shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased, and shipments from non - mainstream regions have been consistently weak. The arrival volume has increased [4]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production has decreased significantly, the profit of finished steel products has continued to weaken, and the scrap - iron price difference has continued to decline. The average daily hot metal production of 247 samples has decreased by 3.6 tons week - on - week to 236.36 tons. With more recent maintenance, hot metal production may continue to decline [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports has increased by 117 tons week - on - week, the berthing volume has slightly decreased, and the total volume has decreased slightly. The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased slightly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils has decreased slightly [4]. 3.2 Month - to - Month Spread The month - to - month spread may remain volatile in the short term [5]. 3.3 Discount & Exchange Rate The average value of the 10 - month MA index is 105, corresponding to a disk valuation of approximately 823 [6]. 3.4 Differences between Varieties The premium of Jinbabu powder has stabilized; the premiums of mainstream medium - and low - grade ores have remained stable; the price difference between domestic and foreign ores has slightly increased [7]. 3.5 Spot Market - **Volume**: The trading volume of iron ore spot has increased, and the trading volume of forward contracts has stabilized. The basis rate of the 01 contract is about 2.8%, the basis has narrowed, and the basis rate has decreased [8]. - **Hot Metal**: The hot metal production of 247 samples announced by Steel Union this week is 239.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05 tons. The average daily hot metal production in October is about 239.9 tons. Short - term demand has slightly decreased, and hot metal production may decline slowly [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports has increased by 139 tons week - on - week, and the proportion of trade ore is 64.1%. The total inventory of imported ore at steel mills has increased by 97 tons, the inventory at the mill has decreased by 36 tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory has increased by 133 tons. The available days of imported ore have remained unchanged at 20 days [8]. - **Profit**: The profit of finished steel products has continued to weaken; the scrap - iron price difference in Tangshan has decreased; the proportion of lump ore in the furnace has slightly decreased, the proportion of pellet ore in the furnace has decreased; and the proportion of sinter in the furnace has continued to increase [8]. 3.6 Global Shipments On November 3, 2025, according to Reuters, the 7 - day moving average shipment volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 4,571 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.8% and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume from Australia was 2,650 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume from Brazil was 1,164 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [30]. 3.7 Balance Sheet - **Supply**: The total supply in 2025 shows fluctuations, with imports being the main part. The supply in November 2025 is expected to be 13,214 tons [192]. - **Consumption**: Total consumption also fluctuates. The consumption in November 2025 is expected to be 11,843 tons [192]. - **Surplus**: There are periods of surplus and deficit. In November 2025, there is an expected surplus of 1,184 tons [192]. - **Year - on - Year Changes**: The cumulative year - on - year change in total supply and total consumption shows different trends. The cumulative year - on - year change in total supply in November 2025 is 0.6%, and that of total consumption is - 5.3% [192].