基建投资提速

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城改持续推进叠加重大项目开工建设,下半年基建投资有望提速
Guotou Securities· 2025-07-27 13:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market-A" [4] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing urban renewal and the commencement of major projects are expected to accelerate infrastructure investment in the second half of the year [1][20] - The central government has emphasized the importance of urban village renovations and has set ambitious targets for the renovation of old urban residential areas, with 58,000 new projects planned for 2024 and 25,000 for the first half of 2025 [1][17] - The report suggests focusing on low-valuation state-owned enterprises in the infrastructure sector, as their fundamentals and operational metrics are expected to improve due to ongoing reforms and market conditions [9][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has called for state-owned enterprises to actively participate in urban development and infrastructure projects, emphasizing the need for safety and reliability in infrastructure [1][16] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated 735 billion yuan for central budget investments, focusing on modern infrastructure and urbanization projects [2][18] - Infrastructure investment growth rates for the first half of 2023 were reported at 4.60% for narrow definitions and 8.90% for broader definitions, with expectations for acceleration in the latter half of the year [9][20] Market Performance - The construction industry saw a weekly increase of 5.62%, outperforming major indices such as the Shenzhen Composite Index and the Shanghai Composite Index [21] - The municipal engineering sector experienced the highest growth within the construction industry, with a weekly increase of 14.33% [21] Company Announcements - Major contracts were awarded, including China Power Construction winning contracts worth approximately 57.52 billion yuan for a pumped storage power station [32] - China State Construction reported new contracts totaling 2.5 trillion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [32] Valuation - As of July 25, the construction and decoration industry had a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.65 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.85, indicating a slight increase from the previous week [24] - The report highlights that the construction industry ranks 27th in P/E valuation among major sectors, suggesting potential for valuation improvement [24][25] Key Focus Stocks - The report recommends focusing on low-valuation state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction, China Railway, and China Communications Construction, which are expected to benefit from improved operational metrics and market conditions [11][12][28]