1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the mid - to long - term outlooks are as follows: - Copper: Oscillating with an upward bias [7] - Alumina: Oscillating [7] - Aluminum: Oscillating with an upward bias [7][9] - Aluminum alloy: Oscillating with an upward bias [10] - Zinc: Oscillating [11] - Lead: Oscillating [14] - Nickel: Oscillating with an upward bias [15] - Stainless steel: Oscillating with an upward bias [16] - Tin: Oscillating with an upward bias [18] 2. Core View of the Report With the weakening of the trading of the hawkish expectations of Wash, the macro - level expectations have improved. The raw material supply remains tight, and there are still potential disruptions in the smelting process, providing strong support on the supply side. Although the current supply - demand situation is relatively loose, there is an expectation of tightening in the medium term. Overall, copper, aluminum, tin and other metals are expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend in the medium term, and basic metals are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short term. It is advisable to conduct short - term long trades on copper, aluminum and tin considering the approaching Spring Festival [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information analysis: On February 9, the spot of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper reported a premium of 35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 35 yuan/ton; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 51.13 dollars/dry ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 dollars/dry ton. China plans to improve the copper resource reserve system [7]. - Main logic: The US dollar index has risen, and the risk appetite of pre - holiday funds has declined. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the smelting profit has decreased, leading to an expected contraction in refined copper supply. The terminal demand is weak, and the social inventory of refined copper is high, pressuring the upward movement of copper prices [7]. - Outlook: The supply constraints of copper still exist. Although there is a short - term adjustment, the long - term upward trend remains. It is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information analysis: On February 9, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2614.6 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.2 yuan/ton; the alumina warehouse receipts were 242,626 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 24,626 tons [7]. - Main logic: The macro sentiment has magnified the market fluctuations. The spot average price has dropped significantly compared to the end of last year. High - cost inland production capacity is facing losses, increasing the expectation of supply contraction. However, the supply contraction is still insufficient, and the cost reduction is weakening the price support. The market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [7]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand situation is in surplus, but the expectation of production reduction is increasing. It is expected to oscillate [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: On February 9, the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,416 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 239 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 165 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in mainstream consumption areas increased. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also increased. The demand in the South China building materials market has declined, while the East China industrial materials market is relatively stable, and the order volume of photovoltaic profiles has increased [7][8]. - Main logic: The US economic data is weak, and the nomination of Wash as the next Fed chairman has reduced the short - term risk appetite, but the macro - level expectations are expected to be positive in the future. The domestic production capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. The overseas Indonesian project is progressing as expected, but there are still constraints on medium - term supply expansion. The weekly initial production start - up rate has decreased, and the high price is suppressing demand. The social inventory is accumulating. Overall, the aluminum price is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [9]. - Outlook: In the short term, the positive macro - level expectations and the tight supply - demand situation are expected to keep the aluminum price oscillating with an upward bias. In the medium term, the supply is expected to be in short supply, and the price center is expected to rise [9]. 3.1.4 Aluminum alloy - Information analysis: On February 9, ADC12 was reported at 23,100 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton; the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,416 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 239 yuan/ton [13]. - Main logic: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight, providing strong cost support. Some manufacturers have started the Spring Festival holiday in advance, and the tax - refund policy and tax transfer may still restrict supply. The demand - side subsidy has declined, and the high price is suppressing downstream demand. The social inventory is accumulating. It is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [10]. - Outlook: In the short term, the cost support is strong, and the price is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias. In the medium term, the cost support is strengthened, and the supply may be reduced due to policy changes. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [10]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information analysis: On February 9, the premiums of Shanghai 0 zinc, Guangdong 0 zinc, and Tianjin 0 zinc to the main contract were 25 yuan/ton, - 55 yuan/ton, and - 50 yuan/ton respectively. As of February 9, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 128,100 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 9,800 tons [10][11]. - Main logic: The economic data is generally positive, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts has increased. The processing fee of zinc ore has declined more slowly, and the import of zinc ore has increased. The supply pressure of domestic zinc ingots has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, the zinc price is expected to oscillate at a high level. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand growth is limited, so the zinc price may decline [11]. - Outlook: The supply pressure of domestic zinc ingots is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The social inventory will continue to accumulate, and the zinc price is expected to oscillate [11]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information analysis: On February 9, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of 1 lead ingots was 16,400 - 16,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,450 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in Henan was - 160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 49,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons; the latest warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 40,773 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4,968 tons [12][14]. - Main logic: The spot premium has increased slightly, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead has remained stable. The price of waste batteries has decreased slightly, and the smelting profit of recycled lead has increased slightly. The production of recycled lead has decreased slightly. The orders of electric bicycles have weakened, and the orders of automobile batteries have improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined [14]. - Outlook: The operating rates of primary and recycled lead smelters are still high, and the production of lead ingots remains high. The demand for lead ingots has weakened, but the cost of waste batteries remains high. The lead price is expected to oscillate [14]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information analysis: On February 9, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai nickel were 51,721 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 447 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 285,072 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 210 tons. The market price of high - nickel iron in China was 1,025 - 1,050 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), which was the same as on the 6th [14][15]. - Main logic: The domestic production of electrolytic nickel has increased, and the production of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia has remained high. The demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand situation is in surplus. Indonesia plans to revise the pricing method of domestic nickel ore trade and reduce the nickel ore quota in 2026, which has adjusted the market's expectations for nickel cost and balance [15]. - Outlook: The current fundamentals of nickel have not improved significantly, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose in February. The LME inventory is high, which suppresses the price. If the actual nickel ore quota in Indonesia is low, the expectation of nickel surplus in 2026 will decline. The nickel price is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [15]. 3.1.8 Stainless steel - Information analysis: On February 9, the inventory of stainless steel futures warehouse receipts was 53,523 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5,723 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was at a premium of 365 yuan/ton to the main stainless steel contract. The market price of high - nickel iron in China was 1,025 - 1,050 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), which was the same as on the 6th [16]. - Main logic: The prices of nickel iron and chromium are stable, providing cost support. The production of stainless steel decreased in December, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly due to profit repair. The terminal demand is still cautious. The social inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory may face pressure during the off - season [16]. - Outlook: The production schedule in January may increase slightly, but it is expected to decline significantly in February due to the Spring Festival. The downstream demand is expected to be weak during the off - season. However, considering the long - term suppression of industrial chain profits and the support from the ore end, the stainless steel price is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [16]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information analysis: On February 9, the LME tin warehouse receipts decreased by 45 tons to 7,085 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased by 296 tons to 6,716 tons; the Shanghai tin positions increased by 3,951 lots to 87,056 lots. The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin ingots was 356,400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 21,600 yuan/ton [18]. - Main logic: The supply of tin is the key factor affecting the price. The supply problem in Wabang may be alleviated, but the supply in Indonesia is still restricted, and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is severe. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The processing fee of tin concentrate has increased, indicating increased financial pressure on some smelters. The demand for tin in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing, and the inventory needs to be rebuilt [18]. - Outlook: The supply risk is high. In the medium - to long - term, the tin price is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [18]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On February 9, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2,374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index was 2,710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial product index was 2,278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index was 1,404.35, up 0.58% [142]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on February 9, 2026, was 2,681.11, with a daily increase of 1.12%, a 5 - day increase of 0.10%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.82%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.18% [143].