投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-10 沃仕鹰派预期交易弱化，基本金属震荡 止跌 有⾊观点：沃仕鹰派预期交易弱化，基本⾦属震荡⽌跌 交易逻辑：据财联社消息，特朗普提名的下届美联储主席出乎市场预期， 投资者对沃仕印象解读为鹰派；不过，随着美国疲软的就业数据披露，沃 仕鹰派预期交易有所弱化，整体上看，宏观面预期有所改善。原料端延续 偏紧局面；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑较强。终端偏弱，现实 供需偏宽松，但中期供需收紧预期仍在。整体来看，随着沃仕鹰派预期交 易弱化，中期美联储独立性风险和供应扰动担忧仍在，铜铝锡等品种有望 维持震荡偏强走势，短期基本金属有望震荡回升，考虑到春节长假临近， 铜铝锡短多交易为宜。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F03108000 投资咨询号Z0021453 王美丹 从业资格号F03141853 投资咨询号Z0022534 铜观点：库存延续⾼位，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：减产预期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Total Volume - Trade continued its periodic rebound. As of January 14, the global export heat value of Huatai was +0.68, up 0.54 from the revised November figure; the import heat value was +0.09, up 0.17 from the revised November figure. The economies that had released December import and export reports showed a slight slowdown in the month - on - month improvement, but trade continued to recover in December after the improvement in November. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and implemented the RMP balance sheet expansion policy. The global economy continued to show signs of improvement at the end of 2025, but there was a risk of continued pressure on periodic trade during the economic cycle transition. [2][10] - The tone was optimistic. After the leaders of China and the US met in South Korea at the end of October and reached measures such as suspending additional tariffs, market risk appetite improved. In the long run, the "Big Beautiful Act" in the US in July opened the debt shackles restricting the US economic expansion, and the direction of macro - asset allocation expansion was certain [2][19]. Structure - Electric vehicles maintained their advantage, and attention should be paid to the increase in art imports and the decline in machine tool exports [3]. - By industry (as of November): China's import demand for transport equipment, waste resources, and non - metal minerals increased, while the short - term import demand for ferrous metals, chemical fibers, and coal continued to slow. The global economy's import demand for China's transport equipment, non - ferrous metals, and equipment increased, but the demand for non - metal minerals, wood products, and oil and gas decreased significantly [3]. - By commodity: As of November, China's imports of weapons continued to decline, while it increased art imports and precious metal exports. As of December, the export growth of China's machine tools slowed significantly, but automobiles still maintained a trade advantage. China's import demand for aluminum remained high, and the growth rate of rare earth imports remained low. The export demand for Chinese goods remained relatively strong, with rapid growth in the exports of cement, fertilizers, and electric vehicles, but a slowdown in machine tools and coal [3]. - By country: As of December, China's top 5 foreign trade partners were ASEAN (16.37%), the EU (13.12%), the US (8.14%), Hong Kong, China (6.25%), and South Korea (5.25%). In December, China maintained high trade growth rates with Hong Kong, China (25.66%), Vietnam (16.77%), and Indonesia (14.79%), and low trade growth rates with the US (- 25.97%), Malaysia (- 19.89%), and Canada (- 6.55%) [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Global Trade in December - Huatai Futures measured the current global trade cycle by tracking the import and export cycles of major global economies. In 2025, China's foreign trade volume was 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase. Exports were 26.99 trillion yuan (up 6.1%), and imports were 18.48 trillion yuan (up 0.5%). As of January 14, the global export heat value of Huatai was +0.68, up 0.54 from the revised November figure; the import heat value was +0.09, up 0.17 from the revised November figure. The economies that had released December import and export reports showed a slight slowdown in the month - on - month improvement, but trade continued to recover in December [10]. China's Trade in December - China's trade continued to recover. The relatively loose Fed monetary policy and the easing of China - US relations improved trade. The tone was optimistic due to the China - US leaders' meeting and the "Big Beautiful Act" in the US. However, the expansion rhythm was highly uncertain, as the current easing state might be interrupted at any time, and the Sino - Japanese trade conflict and US military actions in South America and the Middle East increased trade flow instability. The economies of China and the US improved month - on - month. In December, the US non - farm employment remained positive, and the unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.4%. China's manufacturing PMI rebounded 0.9 percentage points to 50.1 in December, and new export orders also continued to rebound [19]. Import Industries - Manufacturing import growth rebounded. As of November 2025, the import value index expanded in 24 industries, including manufacturing (102.2). Among them, the railway, ship, aerospace, and other transport equipment manufacturing industries had relatively large rebounds [28]. - Transport equipment imports increased. As of November, the import demand of 12 industries, such as railway, ship, aerospace, and other transport equipment manufacturing, increased. China reduced its import demand for coal and chemical products, with 5 industries, including ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, showing a decline [29][32]. Export Industries - China's manufacturing exports rebounded. As of November 2025, the export value of manufacturing (105.9) expanded, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply industries (99.3) and mining (66.7) continued to contract. Among the 24 industries with expanding export value, 9 industries, such as railway, ship, aerospace, and other transport equipment manufacturing, had relatively large increases [36][37]. - China's transport equipment exports were strong. As of November, 4 industries, such as railway, ship, aerospace, and other transport equipment manufacturing, showed an increase in both export volume and price. The exports of oil, gas, and entertainment products declined, with 6 industries, such as the wine, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry, showing a decrease in export demand [39][41]. Commodity Comparison - China's weapon imports contracted, and art imports expanded again. As of November 2025, the import value index expanded at a slower pace, with 13 types of commodities showing growth and 8 showing a decline [45]. - China's art exports contracted, but precious metal exports expanded. As of November 2025, the export value index expanded at an accelerated pace, with 11 types of commodities showing growth and 10 showing a decline [46]. Import - China's demand for resource imports remained high. As of December 2025, China's imports of bauxite (29.4%) and rubber (16.7%) continued to grow at a relatively high rate. The import growth rates of some key commodities continued to slow, such as rare earths (- 24%) and automobiles (- 32.4%) [53]. Export - China's export demand for goods remained strong. As of December 2025, the exports of cement (107.2%), fertilizers (44%), and electric vehicles (63.8%) maintained high growth rates. Only a few commodities' exports declined, such as machine tools (- 8.2%) and aluminum (- 8%) [58]. Net Export - China's net export demand for goods remained strong overall. As of December 2025, the net exports of electric vehicles (93.3%), grain (56.3%), and other commodities maintained high growth rates. Only a few commodities' net exports declined, such as aluminum (- 12.4%) and rubber (- 13%) [62]. Regional Comparison - China's foreign trade country structure: As of December 2025, China's top 5 foreign trade partners were ASEAN, the EU, the US, Hong Kong, China, and South Korea. In the past 5 years, the trade volume between ASEAN and China increased by 1.59 percentage points, while that between the US and China decreased by 5.30 percentage points [66]. - China's import country structure: As of December 2025, China's top 5 import sources were ASEAN, the EU, Taiwan, China, South Korea, and Japan. In the past 5 years, China's import share from Russia increased by 2.21 percentage points, while that from the EU and the US decreased [66]. - China's export country structure: As of December 2025, China's top 5 export destinations were ASEAN, the EU, the US, Hong Kong, China, and Vietnam. In the past 5 years, China's export share to ASEAN increased by 2.72 percentage points, while that to the US and Hong Kong, China decreased [67]. - China's foreign trade growth rate: As of December 2025, the 3 countries or regions with the highest trade growth rates with China were Hong Kong, China (25.66% YoY), Vietnam (16.77% YoY), and Indonesia (14.79% YoY); the 3 with the lowest were the US (- 25.97% YoY), Malaysia (- 19.89% YoY), and Canada (- 6.55% YoY) [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic growth momentum weakened marginally in October 2025, but it is likely to achieve the annual growth target of around 5%. New round of pro - growth policies are expected to be introduced in the coming year, and gold's long - term bullish trend is well - founded [4]. - The end of the US federal government shutdown had short - term and long - term impacts on the US economy. In the short term, it may push up the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, while in the long run, the US economic growth momentum is likely to rebound in late 2025 and 2026, which is negative for precious metals [16][17]. - It is recommended to take a long - position approach in precious metal trading, as the medium - term bull market of precious metals since March 2024 is not over, and attention should be paid to the opportunities to go long again [30]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Environment Review 3.1.1 Economic Situation in China - China's economic growth momentum weakened marginally in October due to reduced stimulus from pro - growth measures, international trade tensions, and the decline of export - rush demand. New pro - growth policies are expected to be introduced in the future [4]. - From January to October, China's cumulative year - on - year fixed - asset investment shrank by 1.7%, with manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure investment all showing different degrees of slowdown [5]. - In October, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to October was 4.3% [8]. - In October, China's industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth. The domestic supply - demand imbalance worsened [9]. - In October, China's real estate market continued to be weak, with the national real estate climate index falling, sales, completion, and new construction areas all shrinking, and high inventory levels [11][12]. - In October, new and second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities in China declined, and the positive feedback cycle of falling prices and weak sales resumed [14]. 3.1.2 Impact of the End of the US Federal Government Shutdown - The 43 - day US federal government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025, caused a short - term shock to the US economy, with an estimated loss of about $645 billion and a predicted 1.5 - percentage - point reduction in Q4 2025 GDP growth [15][16]. - After the shutdown ended, the release of previously suspended economic data may push up the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, leading to a rise in US stocks and precious metal prices. In the long term, the US economic growth momentum is likely to rebound, which may lead the Fed to pause rate cuts in the first half of 2026, negative for precious metals [16][17]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and Dollar Exchange Rates - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate at a low level in the second half of 2025, with a core fluctuation range of 95 - 102. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to be slightly stronger but face upward pressure [19][20]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is expected to have a core fluctuation range of 3.8% - 4.5% in the second half of 2025 [22]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of November 13, 2025, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF were 22.4% and 13.8% higher than their May 2024 lows respectively [23]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system support the long - term bull market of gold. In the medium - term, economic recession risks and liquidity premium expectations make gold prices stronger. In the short - term, gold prices rose due to the Fed's rate - cut expectation but then corrected and rebounded [26][27]. - It is recommended to take a long - position approach in precious metal trading, with London gold expected to reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce in the next six months and one year respectively, and London silver expected to reach $58 and $63 per ounce [30]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - to - silver ratio in London and Shanghai showed different trends from June 2024 to October 2025. The correlation between gold and other assets also changed, with the negative correlation between gold and the US dollar index turning positive, and the negative correlation between gold and US Treasury real yields weakening [31].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Guidelines for Futures Companies to Publish Futures Research Reports" aims to standardize the futures industry research reports and promote high-quality development within the sector [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Context and Industry Challenges - The futures industry must address the challenges posed by geopolitical instability and the need for effective risk management services for domestic enterprises venturing abroad [2]. - The current economic transformation in China has shifted the primary contradiction from supply shortages to the need for balanced and sufficient development, increasing the demand for risk management [2]. Group 2: Importance of Research Reports - Futures research reports serve as crucial carriers of market information, and their authenticity and compliance are essential for effective risk management [3]. - The new guidelines will enhance the transparency and accuracy of publicly available futures research products, while increasing the cost of accessing high-value reports [5]. Group 3: Compliance and Cost Implications - The compliance costs for futures companies are expected to rise significantly in the short term, with an anticipated increase of 20% to 30% in compliance investments by leading firms by 2025 [6]. - The guidelines require futures companies to establish comprehensive internal control systems and enhance personnel qualifications for report production and compliance [6]. Group 4: Industry Structure and Competition - The concentration of the futures industry is projected to increase, with leading firms capturing a significant share of net profits, indicating a shift towards improved competitive dynamics [7]. - The rise in compliance costs is expected to reduce chaotic price competition and encourage firms to enhance their professional capabilities and service quality [7]. Group 5: Long-term Transformation and Value Creation - The guidelines will facilitate the multi-faceted transformation of futures companies, moving from traditional business models to integrated growth strategies encompassing various financial services [8]. - High-quality research reports will enable better pricing of projects and commodities, thus enhancing market resource allocation [8][9]. - The shift towards a profit-generating model for research departments will necessitate higher professional standards and capabilities among research personnel [9]. Group 6: Future Business Models - Futures companies are expected to move away from reliance on brokerage services, focusing instead on personalized hedging products and high-quality service capabilities to gain competitive advantages [10].

Core Viewpoint - The newly published "Guidelines for Futures Companies to Release Futures Research Reports" aims to standardize the behavior of futures companies in releasing research reports, enhance research service capabilities, and address internal control deficiencies and irregular processes in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Guidelines Overview - The guidelines focus on "standardizing professional behavior, preventing business risks, and improving service quality," detailing execution standards for each step in the report release process [2]. - A total of 32 articles are included in the guidelines, emphasizing the establishment of a comprehensive internal control system covering the entire process of report creation, review, release, and sales service [2][3]. Group 2: Key Highlights - The guidelines require unified content elements and format standards for research reports, emphasizing the qualifications and responsibilities of authors [3]. - A dual mechanism for quality review and compliance checks is established, with clear processes, content, responsibilities, and personnel requirements [3]. - The guidelines introduce a market impact assessment mechanism prior to report release, ensuring reports are disseminated through a centralized internal platform [3]. Group 3: Public and Private Domain Distinction - The guidelines clearly delineate the boundaries between public and private domain operations, with public domain reports limited to educational content and private domain reports requiring specific contracts and risk disclosures [4]. - This distinction aims to prevent misleading information dissemination and ensure that private domain services align with investor risk profiles [4]. Group 4: Conflict of Interest Prevention - The guidelines mandate the separation of research report creation and sales functions to ensure research independence and prevent conflicts of interest [5][6]. - Companies are required to adhere to integrity regulations and ensure consistency in internal research support [5]. Group 5: Practical Implementation - The guidelines expand their applicability to include "information services" under the same management as research reports, preventing circumvention of regulations [6]. - Companies can provide research reports to brokerage clients without separate contracts if no fees are charged, aligning with practical industry needs [6]. Group 6: Industry Impact - The guidelines address existing industry issues such as inadequate internal controls and quality inconsistencies, promoting a shift towards high-quality development in the futures market [7]. - By enhancing the quality of research services, the guidelines aim to better meet the risk management needs of industrial clients [7][8]. Group 7: Transition Period - A two-month transition period is established for futures companies to prepare for the implementation of the guidelines, ensuring readiness for compliance [8].