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中长级主题投资系统:基金”的配置闭环,并给出基于热度分层的动态跟踪与风险控
Bank of China Securities· 2026-01-26 06:25
Group 1 - The report constructs a three-dimensional heat evaluation system for theme investment in A-shares, focusing on "volume-price-discussion degree" to achieve a comprehensive output for theme rotation tracking and allocation [1][2] - The framework aims to capture fund behavior, price trends, and market consensus during theme rotation, translating theme signals into tradable targets and allocatable tools, forming a sustainable tracking and decision-making loop [2][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of a quantitative approach to measure market sentiment and trading rhythm through a "volume-price" model, which provides a visual and quantifiable basis for observing theme strength [9][10] Group 2 - The report identifies leading stocks within themes by assessing their market capitalization and liquidity, ensuring that selected stocks can effectively reflect fund preferences and market sentiment [40][41] - The identification logic includes three core features: representing the theme direction, accommodating incremental funds, and demonstrating price leadership during emotional intensification [40][42] - The report outlines a structured scoring and tiering system for stocks based on their performance in volume, price momentum, and discussion degree, facilitating the identification of core leaders in theme investment [43][44] Group 3 - The report highlights the significance of popular themes in providing clear mapping directions, indicating that related industries and sectors often present opportunities for catch-up [2][5] - It discusses the identification of candidate themes by exploring the main themes and their diffusion within the same industry chain or sector, followed by secondary screening based on volume and price patterns [2][5] - The report presents a quantitative process for transforming catch-up opportunities from narrative judgments into trackable outputs, focusing on specific structural patterns such as low-level rises and volume breakthroughs [2][5]