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中金预测美通胀:2025 - 2026年或补偿性上涨,建议增配商品
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-13 01:47
Core Viewpoint - The article predicts a compensatory rise in U.S. inflation in the CPI data for December 2025, January 2026, and April 2026 due to statistical errors in inflation calculations [1] Group 1: Inflation Predictions - The analysis suggests that recent strong U.S. inflation may lead the Federal Reserve to slow down its interest rate cuts [1] - This potential slowdown could result in a marginal tightening of global liquidity, increasing uncertainty in major asset classes in both China and the U.S. [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The article advises increasing allocation to commodities as a hedge against risks associated with inflation and liquidity shocks [1] - It suggests that if U.S. inflation and liquidity shocks lead to corrections in assets such as Chinese and U.S. stocks, gold, and U.S. Treasuries, investors should consider buying on dips [1]