1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends. Globally, the total cotton production is expected to decrease, while consumption is slightly reduced, and ending stocks are significantly down. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends [1][2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 13, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,287 (-82) sheets, including 8,006 (-81) registered warehouse receipts and 281 (-1) valid forecasts [3]. - In mid - August, the average temperature in southern and eastern Xinjiang was higher, while in other areas it was slightly lower. Precipitation was higher in the western parts of northern and southern Xinjiang and lower in other areas. The meteorological conditions in mid - August were favorable for agricultural and livestock production, but the previous high - temperature weather was unfavorable for cotton boll growth [4]. - As of August 10, the national budding rate in the US was 93%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [4]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed that the expected US cotton yield in 2025/2026 was 862 pounds per acre, up 53 pounds from the July forecast; production was expected to be 2.88 million tons, down 300,000 tons from July; and ending stocks were expected to be 780,000 tons, down 220,000 tons from July [4]. - Globally, the expected total cotton production in this season is 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons or 1.5%; consumption is expected to be 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons or 0.1%; and ending stocks are 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 742,000 tons or 4.4% [4]. - In July 2025, the China Cotton Textile Industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 35.71%, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the previous month [5]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report includes charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [6][8][12][17]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks jointly announced that the 24% tariff would be suspended again for 90 days from August 12, 2025. The USDA's August supply - demand report was positive for cotton prices, leading to a rise in US cotton. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in U.S. inflation as indicated by the June CPI data, which shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, up from 2.4% in the previous month, primarily driven by a rebound in energy prices. The Federal Reserve may need more time to assess the situation before making further decisions on interest rate cuts, which could significantly impact global financial markets in the second half of the year [1][19]. Inflation Data Summary - The June CPI year-on-year increase is 2.7%, compared to a previous value of 2.4% and market expectations of 2.6%. The month-on-month increase is 0.3%, up from 0.1% previously [2][3]. - Core CPI shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly up from 2.8% previously, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5][15]. - The Cleveland Fed's Trimmed Mean CPI increased to 3.17% year-on-year, up from 3.03%, indicating a rise in inflation breadth and stickiness [5][6]. Energy and Food Prices - Energy prices increased by 0.9% month-on-month, with gasoline prices rebounding significantly. The impact of retail gasoline prices, which typically lag behind crude oil price fluctuations, is expected to continue into July [3][5]. - Food prices remained stable with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, driven by a rise in household food prices [5]. Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices rebounded to a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, with various categories such as furniture and appliances showing significant increases. However, prices for clothing and vehicles remain below trend lines [10][11]. - Core services saw a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, with super core services (excluding housing) also showing a rebound, indicating some recovery in demand [15][16]. Impact of Tariffs - The article highlights that tariffs are beginning to show an impact on inflation, but the effect is currently moderate. The expected overall impact of tariffs on inflation is estimated to be around 80 basis points [17][18]. - Companies are employing various strategies to mitigate tariff costs, including price adjustments, renegotiating with suppliers, and diversifying supply chains [14][18]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider the moderate inflation impact and the weakening job market before making decisions on interest rate cuts. The consensus is leaning towards a potential rate cut in the fourth quarter of the year [17][20]. - Recent comments from key Fed officials suggest a more dovish stance, indicating that even if inflation rises due to tariffs, it may not delay rate cuts [20]. Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market has shown mixed performance, with technology stocks benefiting from certain market expectations, while financial stocks have faced adjustments due to disappointing earnings reports [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall prices of non - ferrous metals show different trends. Copper prices may oscillate and rise, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate, lead prices are relatively strong, zinc prices are affected by multiple factors with large fluctuations, tin prices will oscillate in a short - term, nickel prices may decline, lithium carbonate prices fluctuate narrowly, alumina prices will oscillate weakly, and stainless steel prices will maintain a weak oscillation [2][4][5][7][8][10][12][14][16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose 0.65% to $9727/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78720 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 78000 - 79200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9600 - 9800 dollars/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 1200 to 93475 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 21000 tons [2]. - Market: The copper raw material market is tight, and low inventories may support price increases, but weakening domestic consumption limits the upside [2]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum fell 0.06% to $2566/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20345 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is 2530 - 2590 dollars/ton [4]. - Inventory: SHFE weighted contract positions increased by 0.1 to 651000 lots, and warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 44000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.15 to 326500 tons [4]. - Market: Low inventories may push prices up, but the upside is limited by price increases and the off - season [4]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index rose 1.32% to 17181 yuan/ton. Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of SHFE lead is limited by weak domestic consumption [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 49800 tons [5]. - Market: The export growth of lead - acid batteries has declined, and downstream consumption is weak. High smelting rates and other factors support the price [5]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index rose 0.50% to 22017 yuan/ton. Market fluctuations are large due to repeated geopolitical disturbances [7]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased to 7200 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased to 77800 tons [7]. - Market: The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots. Geopolitical events may affect zinc ore exports [7]. Tin - Price: On June 25, 2025, SHFE tin closed at 263000 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. It is expected to oscillate between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and LME tin will oscillate between 31000 - 33000 dollars/ton [8]. - Supply and demand: Supply is short - term tight, and demand is in the off - season. The upstream and downstream are in a stalemate [8]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. It is expected that SHFE nickel will operate between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M will operate between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [10]. - Market: Downstream cost - profit inversion affects the price of nickel ore. Nickel iron, intermediate products, and nickel sulfate prices are under pressure [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index closed at 59977 yuan, up 0.33%. The LC2509 contract closed at 60880 yuan, up 0.30%. It is recommended to operate cautiously [12]. - Market: There are many news - driven factors, but marginal changes in supply, demand, and cost are limited [12]. Alumina - Price: On June 25, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.48% to 2909 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short at high prices [14]. - Market: The alumina production capacity is in surplus, and the price is expected to be anchored by the cost [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12540 yuan/ton, up 0.80%. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term [16]. - Market: Market demand is weak, and supply exceeds demand. Production cuts have eased the supply - demand contradiction [16].