投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 政策利好预期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理。沪深京三市成交额 22182 亿元，较上日放量 2192 亿元。假期期 间外部利空因素较弱，随着假期之后流动性回流股市，叠加当前临近两会政策时间窗口，市场风 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a strong performance driven by high-end manufacturing and hard technology sectors, while the Hong Kong market exhibits a divergence with weak technology stocks, indicating a structural differentiation influenced by macroeconomic and policy factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: A-share Market Performance - Major A-share indices, except for the Sci-Tech 50, recorded gains, with the Shenzhen Component Index leading at +0.93% and a total trading volume of 1.604 trillion yuan [1]. - The top gainers in A-shares include sectors such as defense and military (+3.71%), machinery equipment (+2.58%), and power equipment (+2.15%), while traditional sectors like banking and oil & gas saw declines [1][2]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market displayed a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index nearly flat and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 1.48%, highlighting a contrast with the A-share market [1]. - The weakness in Hong Kong's technology stocks is attributed to their offshore market nature, influenced by both domestic fundamentals and global liquidity expectations, particularly regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [3]. Group 3: Sector Insights - The rise of the defense and military sector is linked to increased geopolitical uncertainties and expectations for accelerated equipment procurement under the "14th Five-Year Plan," providing long-term visibility and certainty [2]. - The demand for new energy infrastructure under the "dual carbon" goals and recent government initiatives for large-scale equipment updates are expected to inject substantial growth into related industries [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The main investment themes in the A-share market remain intact, focusing on policy-driven and growth-oriented sectors like military, high-end manufacturing, and new energy [4]. - In the Hong Kong market, the valuation pressures on technology stocks are likely to persist until clearer overseas policy signals or stronger mainland economic data emerge to boost risk appetite [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant declines in gold and silver prices have led to increased volatility in global stock markets, with concerns about high valuations and potential changes in U.S. monetary policy impacting investor sentiment [1][4][24]. Group 1: Market Movements - London gold experienced a maximum drawdown of 21%, while silver saw a maximum drawdown of 41% [1]. - The global stock market exhibited considerable fluctuations due to the sharp decline in commodity prices [4][27]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks faced substantial declines, with the market closing around the 4.00 star level [5][12]. Group 2: Valuation Concerns - Gold and silver were previously identified as overvalued, with recent price drops marking the fastest decline in 40 years [2][3]. - The high valuations of commodities were driven by significant inflows of capital, leading to the highest valuation levels in 30 years [20]. - The market is currently experiencing a rotation, with some sectors like consumer goods showing resilience while others, particularly small-cap stocks, are underperforming [11][36]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The volatility in the markets is partly attributed to concerns over the potential for the Federal Reserve to slow down interest rate cuts, which could tighten global liquidity [24][29]. - The recent appointment of a hawkish Federal Reserve nominee has heightened these concerns [23]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The company has paused subscriptions for actively managed and enhanced index products to mitigate risks associated with chasing high valuations [14][40]. - Investors are advised to manage their exposure to high-valuation assets and consider taking profits where appropriate [42]. - Maintaining a balanced portfolio with a focus on low-valuation assets is recommended, with a suggested limit of 15-20% exposure to any single industry [44].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate has been on a downward trend since the beginning of 2026, breaking key support levels and reaching new lows, driven by the safe-haven appeal of the Swiss franc and diverging monetary policies between the US and Switzerland [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of January 27, 2026, the USD/CHF traded at 0.7774, with a daily decline of 0.22%, and a trading range of 0.7760-0.7782. On January 26, it fell significantly to a low of 0.7740, marking a single-day drop of 0.4358% [1]. - The Swiss franc has maintained a stable performance against the euro, fluctuating around the 0.93-0.94 range, indicating a strong independent trend compared to other major currencies [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a 0% policy interest rate, with a high threshold for reintroducing negative rates, expected to remain until at least the second half of 2027. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates by 50 basis points in 2026, with the first cut likely in June [2]. - The narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Switzerland has diminished the attractiveness of USD yields, prompting a shift of funds towards the Swiss franc [2]. Group 3: Central Bank Interventions - The SNB's foreign exchange interventions are crucial in managing the exchange rate, particularly to mitigate the impact of a strong franc on export-oriented sectors like watchmaking and pharmaceuticals [2]. - Market consensus suggests that the SNB may reduce intervention efforts if the USD/CHF falls below 0.79, while a rebound above 0.80 could trigger increased intervention [2]. Group 4: Economic Fundamentals - Switzerland's economic indicators show weak inflation, with January CPI rising only 0.1% year-on-year and December PPI declining 1.8%. The manufacturing PMI is below the growth threshold, with GDP growth expected to slow to 1.0% in 2026 [2]. - The reduction of US tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15% has improved the trade balance, partially offsetting pressures from a sluggish economic recovery [2]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - The bearish trend for USD/CHF is solid, with daily candles consistently closing lower. Key support is at 0.7740, and a break below this level could lead to a decline towards the psychological level of 0.7700 [3]. - The short-term outlook for USD/CHF is likely to remain bearish, influenced by global risk sentiment, SNB intervention actions, and the pace of Fed rate cuts [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant performance of gold and silver in 2025, with gold prices increasing by over 65% and silver prices rising by 150%. Investment banks are optimistic about gold potentially challenging $5,000 per ounce and silver reaching $100 per ounce in 2026, driven by four key themes in the precious metals market [1]. Group 1: Key Themes - **Theme 1: Trump Market** Trump's statements and policies directly impact the dollar's performance. If he reignites trade disputes that could harm the U.S. economy and weaken the dollar, it would create a favorable environment for gold and silver investments. The upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chairmanship in May 2026, appointed by Trump, could also lead to significant interest rate cuts, benefiting precious metal prices [2]. - **Theme 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts** The expectation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is closely tied to inflation and employment data. If these indicators suggest economic weakness, the likelihood of rate cuts increases, prompting a shift of funds into gold and silver markets for risk aversion [3]. - **Theme 3: De-dollarization and Central Bank Gold Purchases** The ongoing global trend of de-dollarization, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the U.S. debt exceeding $36 trillion, is leading central banks and financial institutions to increase their gold and silver holdings. Market concerns over U.S. fiscal discipline and potential dollar crises often precede price surges in precious metals. Additionally, the Chinese New Year is a peak time for gold purchases, warranting close attention [4]. - **Theme 4: Geopolitical Risks and Industrial Demand for Silver** Geopolitical risks significantly drive gold and silver prices, especially events involving U.S. intervention that raise concerns about fiscal deficits. Silver's industrial applications in technology sectors, such as chips and electric vehicles, also enhance its demand. Changes in China's rare earth policies could further influence silver prices in 2026 [5]. Group 2: Price Projections - The article suggests that if the aforementioned themes persist, the long-term projections for gold could reach $10,000 per ounce and for silver $300 per ounce, indicating a strong potential for price appreciation in the precious metals market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article predicts a compensatory rise in U.S. inflation in the CPI data for December 2025, January 2026, and April 2026 due to statistical errors in inflation calculations [1] Group 1: Inflation Predictions - The analysis suggests that recent strong U.S. inflation may lead the Federal Reserve to slow down its interest rate cuts [1] - This potential slowdown could result in a marginal tightening of global liquidity, increasing uncertainty in major asset classes in both China and the U.S. [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The article advises increasing allocation to commodities as a hedge against risks associated with inflation and liquidity shocks [1] - It suggests that if U.S. inflation and liquidity shocks lead to corrections in assets such as Chinese and U.S. stocks, gold, and U.S. Treasuries, investors should consider buying on dips [1]

Employment Data Summary - In December 2025, the U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs, below the expected 60,000[2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%[2] - Total employment growth for 2025 was only 584,000, the weakest annual growth since 2020[2] Labor Market Insights - The number of unemployed individuals in December was 1.9 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 397,000[2] - The labor force participation rate was 62.4%, a slight decrease of 0.1% month-on-month[2] - The report indicates that the decline in the unemployment rate may be due to individuals giving up on job searches, with 6.2 million people not in the labor force but wanting to work[2] Sector Performance - Employment in the food service and bar industry rose by 27,000, with an average monthly increase of 12,000 jobs in 2025, up from 11,000 in 2024[2] - The healthcare sector added 21,000 jobs, with an average monthly increase of 34,000 in 2025, down from 56,000 in 2024[2] - Retail jobs decreased by 25,000 in December, with little change in average monthly employment for 2025 compared to 2024[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates in January 2026 is over 95%, with a 95.6% chance according to CME models[2] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with June 2026 being the most likely time for a rate cut[2] Asset Market Reactions - Major asset classes showed limited volatility, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield around 3.53% and the dollar index rising above 99[2] - U.S. stock indices experienced gains, while gold prices returned to $4,500 per ounce[2] - The lack of consistent patterns in asset performance suggests minimal impact from the employment data, with prices continuing to follow their own trends[2] Economic Monitoring Recommendations - Increased attention is recommended for Q1 2026 economic data due to current asset classes being in a "awkward" position[2] - The performance of the Nasdaq since October 2025 indicates a narrowing trading range, suggesting a potential directional shift is approaching[2] - The ability of traditional economic sectors to drive growth amid declining AI investment expectations will be crucial for market dynamics[2] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected intensification of U.S.-China tensions, geopolitical crises, and greater-than-expected global economic pressures[12]

Gold Price Outlook - Gold prices reached a historic high of $4,550 per ounce, with an annual increase of 72.73%, making it one of the best-performing asset classes[2] - Short-term market risk appetite may negatively impact gold prices due to expectations of rising interest rates from U.S. fiscal and monetary policies[2] - Central bank demand for gold, driven by U.S. dollar credit risks, is expected to support a long-term upward trend in gold prices[2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was reported at 4.3%, significantly exceeding the consensus forecast of 3.3%[3] - The strong GDP growth was primarily driven by robust consumer spending and a reduction in inventory drag, indicating economic resilience rather than overheating[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 1.93 basis points to 4.127%, while the 2-year yield fell by 0.44 basis points to 3.478%[3] Market Reactions - Following the GDP report, U.S. stock markets experienced gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising by 1.40% and 1.22%, respectively[3] - The dollar index declined by 0.59% to 98.02, reflecting a shift in market sentiment[3] - Gold prices increased by 4.48% over the week, closing at $4,533 per ounce[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected policy actions from Trump and excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to inflationary pressures[4] - Prolonged high interest rates may trigger liquidity crises in the financial system[4]

Core Points - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 55 yuan per ton, effective from December 8 at 24:00, marking the eleventh price cut of the year [1] - The price adjustments will lead to a decrease in consumer fuel costs, with specific reductions of 0.04 yuan for 92 gasoline, 0.05 yuan for 95 gasoline, and 0.05 yuan for 0 diesel [1] Summary by Category Consumer Impact - For private car owners, filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost approximately 2 yuan less [3] - For a vehicle that runs 2000 kilometers per month with an average fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will decrease by about 6 yuan before the next price adjustment [3] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers will see a reduction of around 89 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [3] Market Analysis - According to Zhuo Chuang Information, the current pricing cycle has been influenced by mixed market factors, including occasional disturbances in Europe and increased oil inventory in the U.S., leading to a narrow fluctuation in oil prices [3] - The analysis indicates that the market should pay attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, as a weakening dollar may support long-term oil price increases, while short-term international oil prices are expected to maintain a strong trend [3] - The next price adjustment window is scheduled for December 22 at 24:00 [3]

从技术面来看，周线级别来看，金价在近几周震荡调整，低点不断上移的同时，持续受到10周均线支 撑，而在前周强势反弹走强拉升，多头占据优势，布林带向上延伸，看涨前景良好，虽然上周多头动力 虽有减弱，但未跌至5-10周均线下方，故此在此之上，仍可继续看涨入场，等待再度上探历史高点附近 或更高位置。 现货黄金日线图显示，金价正在扩散楔形上升模式内盘整。金价已经突破了三角，现在正在4200美元附 近盘整。 周一(12月8日)亚市盘中，现货黄金延续涨势，目前交投于4208.22美元/盎司附近，现货黄金在短期内主 要上涨趋势持续占据主导地位的情况下，价格试图借助EMA50的支撑来积聚上涨动能，并且沿着支撑 趋势线交易，这使得在接下来的交易日中突破阻力位的可能性依然存在。 周五公布的美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.8%，低于市场预期2.9%，前值为2.9%。 媒体分析指出，消费者支出的回落表明，在史上持续时间最长的政府关门于10月1日开始之前，美国经 济最主要的增长引擎就已经在放缓。尽管近期数据显示，"黑色星期五"的销售表现稳健，消费者在积极 寻找折扣，但人们对就业市场的担忧正在加剧，而当前的消费增长主要由收入更高的家 ...