1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, economic data continued to weaken, with supply still stronger than demand. The economic growth momentum is gradually slowing down, and the necessity of introducing incremental growth - stabilizing policies is rising, but the intensity of such policies should not be overestimated. The bond market has not yet focused on the fundamentals and is currently weak, but in the long - term, it is less likely to turn bearish, and there is a high probability that the fundamentals will drive the bond market to strengthen in Q4 [1][2][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 8 - month Economic Data: Weaker with Supply Exceeding Demand - **Demand Side** - **Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to August was 0.5%, the lowest since 2021. Manufacturing investment growth continued to decline, and in the future, its growth rate will show a decline in resilience. Infrastructure investment growth also continued to decline, and there is still downward pressure on its year - on - year growth rate. Real estate data generally weakened in August, and stable real - estate policies are expected to be introduced from late September to October [12][17][18] - **Consumption**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 3.4%, and the policy of promoting consumption is on the way. Subsequently, the growth rate of social retail sales is expected to stabilize and rebound, but the release of long - term consumption potential still depends on institutional reform [27][28] - **Production Side**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.2%, and the slowdown in industrial production growth was jointly caused by weakening demand and the implementation of anti - involution policies. Industrial production may experience a resilient decline within the year [29][36] 3.2 Bond Market: Not Focused on Fundamentals and Currently Weak - In the short term, the bond market is facing many disturbances, and it is recommended to adopt a defensive approach. It is also recommended to continue holding short - hedging strategies, and in a strong stock market environment, using T or TL for hedging is recommended. In the long term, the probability of the bond market turning bearish is low, and it is likely to strengthen in Q4 [37][39][40]