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天键股份(301383):业绩短期承压,静待AI/AR眼镜放量
HUAXI Securities· 2025-10-28 15:11
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit due to increased R&D expenses, reduced government subsidies, and higher asset impairment losses [2][4] - The company is accelerating the development of emerging businesses, particularly in the AI and AR glasses sector, which is expected to become a new growth driver once production scales up [4][9] - Despite the current challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the potential growth from AI/AR glasses, leading to a maintained "Buy" rating [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.492 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.05%, and a net profit of -0.09 billion yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 597 million yuan, down 17.31% year-on-year, with a net profit of -0.15 billion yuan [2] - R&D expenses increased by 44.95% year-on-year to 115 million yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, contributing to the decline in profitability [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 13.03%, a decrease of 5.60 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 2025 gross margin at 12.18% [3] - The operating expense ratio increased by 4.47 percentage points year-on-year to 13.25% for Q1-Q3 2025 [3] Emerging Business Development - The company is expanding its product line to include audio glasses, AR glasses, and AI glasses, aiming to meet high-quality audio-visual experience demands [4] - The annual production capacity for smart glasses exceeds 100,000 units, with expectations for significant sales growth once these products are launched [4] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.005 billion, 2.300 billion, and 2.677 billion yuan, respectively, with a forecasted net profit of 0.01 billion, 0.68 billion, and 1.11 billion yuan [9] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.01, 0.41, and 0.68 yuan, respectively [9]