外汇汇率稳定
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日本央行委员小枝淳子明言“必须加息” 12月成关键窗口期
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-20 06:28
Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy adjustments will depend on a detailed assessment of economic and price trends, despite inflation gradually approaching the 2% target [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Potential inflation is gradually moving towards the 2% target, but there is insufficient evidence to confirm its stability [1]. - Recent inflation rates in Japan have exceeded potential inflation rates, indicating a relatively strong performance in overall prices [3]. - The Bank of Japan will monitor temporary supply-side factors, such as rising food prices, which may affect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Bank of Japan emphasizes a gradual approach to normalizing monetary policy, opposing hasty actions [1][2]. - There is a necessity to normalize interest rates to avoid future distortions, with a clear indication that the central bank should continue to raise policy rates based on economic activity and price improvements [2]. - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates by December 2025, with recent statements reinforcing this expectation [2]. Group 3: Currency and Market Stability - The impact of yen fluctuations on domestic prices is a significant concern, with a focus on how exchange rate stability reflects economic fundamentals [1]. - The Bank of Japan is prepared to intervene in the market through increased bond purchases and emergency operations to maintain market stability during rapid and irregular fluctuations in long-term yields [1].