（文章来源：第一财经） 据报道，日本央行行长植田和男表示，潜在通胀逐步升向2%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising pressure on the Japanese economy due to increasing inflation, with the Bank of Japan maintaining a cautious stance on interest rate hikes despite significant consumer price increases [1][2] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently trading around 147.59, showing a 0.29% increase from the previous close of 147.17, indicating a potential upward trend if it breaks the resistance level of 148.78 [2] - Japan's 30-year government bond yield reached a historical high of 3.21%, driven by a core consumer inflation rate of 3.1% in July, which exceeds the Bank of Japan's target of 2% [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that if the USD/JPY breaks above 148.78, it could target the psychological level of 150.00 and the resistance level at 151.20, indicating a potential acceleration in the upward trend [2] - Conversely, if the exchange rate reverses and falls below 145.85, it may open further downside potential, with support levels at 144.22 and 143.45 [2] - The Bank of Japan's focus on "potential inflation" rather than actual price movements may create a disconnect with the public's experience of rising prices, complicating the central bank's policy normalization efforts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is considering further interest rate hikes if economic and inflation conditions meet expectations, as indicated by BOJ policy committee member Nakagawa Junko [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Nakagawa stated that the current economic environment is more favorable for interest rate hikes compared to April [1]. - The market's expectation for a rate hike has risen to approximately 60% by the end of October, up from 40% in early August [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Japan's core consumer price index reached 3.3% in June, exceeding the BOJ's 2% target for over three years, prompting calls for a shift to a more hawkish policy stance [2]. - Nakagawa emphasized that the BOJ will continue to support the economy through current monetary easing until there is more certainty regarding inflation and economic performance [1][3]. Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - The strong labor market is seen as a key reason supporting the case for interest rate hikes, with wage growth expanding from large enterprises to small and medium-sized businesses [4]. - Nakagawa noted that companies are increasingly inclined to raise wages and prices, reflecting expectations of continued labor market tightness [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights increasing pressure within the Bank of Japan to abandon a vague inflation indicator, with calls for a more hawkish approach focusing on overall inflation rates [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate has shown an upward trend, currently trading around 147.36, reflecting a 0.12% increase from the previous close of 147.18 [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that "potential inflation" remains below the central bank's 2% target, which justifies a gradual rate hike [1] Group 2 - The daily momentum indicators show a mild bearish trend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains stable, indicating a consolidation phase for the exchange rate [2] - Key resistance levels are identified at 147.90 (21-day moving average) and the 149.40-149.50 range, which includes the 200-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level [2] - Initial support is found at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 147.10, with further support at 146.20 (50-day moving average) [2]

Core Viewpoint - There is increasing internal pressure within the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to abandon the vague "potential inflation" indicator, reflecting dissatisfaction with current monetary policy communication and a call for a more hawkish stance to address potential second-round price effects [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation Indicators - The BOJ Governor, Kazuo Ueda, defends the slow pace of interest rate hikes, stating that "potential inflation," based on domestic demand and wage growth, has not yet reached the BOJ's 2% target [1]. - The lack of a clear single measurement for "potential inflation" has made it a target for criticism, despite overall and core inflation rates exceeding the target for several years [1]. - Minutes from the July policy meeting revealed internal disagreements, with one member suggesting a shift in communication focus from "potential inflation" to actual price changes and inflation expectations [1]. Group 2: Economic Committee Concerns - Members of Japan's highest economic council have expressed concerns that the BOJ may be overly optimistic, especially as public worries about persistent inflation grow [2]. - In June, Japan's core consumer inflation rose by 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding the BOJ's 2% target for over three years, with food prices surging by 8.2%, prompting a revision of core inflation expectations [2]. - Senior analyst Naomi Muramatsu believes the BOJ may be preparing to gradually phase out the "potential inflation" concept in the coming months, potentially paving the way for future interest rate hikes [2].

Core Viewpoint - There is a growing call within the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to abandon the vague inflation indicator known as "potential inflation," as concerns about second-round price effects rise, prompting some members to advocate for a more hawkish communication strategy and a clearer path for future interest rate hikes [1][4] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - Some BOJ members are urging a shift in focus from "potential inflation" to actual price changes and inflation expectations, highlighting the need to address the risks of rising prices [1][4] - The core consumer inflation in Japan rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, exceeding the BOJ's 2% target for over three years, primarily driven by an 8.2% increase in food prices [4] Group 2: Policy Communication - The BOJ's current communication strategy is under scrutiny, with some members suggesting that the concept of "potential inflation" may not align with reality, indicating a potential shift in messaging as the next interest rate hike approaches [5] - There is a lack of consensus within the BOJ regarding a comprehensive adjustment of the communication strategy, although some members are publicly calling for a more hawkish stance [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The BOJ's pessimistic sentiment regarding the economic outlook has eased following a trade agreement with the United States in July, but concerns about persistent inflation remain [3][4] - The BOJ has indicated readiness for further interest rate hikes, but external factors, such as U.S. tariffs, complicate the timing of these decisions [3]

日本央行内部对货币政策沟通策略出现分歧，部分理事呼吁放弃模糊的"潜在通胀"指标，转向更加鹰派 的政策表态。这一变化可能为今年10月的加息行动扫清道路。 8月13日周三，据媒体报道，日本央行内部出现了越来越多的声音，要求放弃"潜在通胀"这一模糊的衡 量指标。 所谓"潜在通胀"，主要反映国内需求和工资的增长情况，被央行视作加息节奏的参考。日本央行行长植 田和男一直以 "潜在通胀" 低于央行2%的目标为由，主张缓步加息。然而，这个概念并没有统一、明确 的统计方式，这让外界批评日本央行过度依赖一个模糊指标来制定政策，尤其是在通胀已连续三年多高 于2%目标的背景下。 数据显示，日本年度核心消费价格指数6月份达到3.3%，连续三年多超过央行2%的目标，主要由食品成 本8.2%的飙升推动。这种价格压力促使日本央行在上月上调了核心通胀预期，也让市场对央行所谓"潜 在通胀"尚未达到2%的判断产生质疑。 通胀压力持续升温，理事会内部分歧显现 如今，日本央行内部一些政策委员担心 "二轮通胀效应" 正在形成，即通胀效应可能会在企业定价行为 和公众对未来通胀的预期中固化下来。他们呼吁将政策沟通重点转向更直观的总体通胀。 根据日本央行7 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is experiencing internal disagreements regarding its monetary policy communication strategy, with some members advocating for a shift away from the ambiguous "potential inflation" metric towards a more hawkish stance [1][2] - The concept of "potential inflation" has been criticized for its lack of a unified statistical method, especially as the core consumer price index has exceeded the BOJ's 2% target for over three years, reaching 3.3% in June, driven by an 8.2% surge in food costs [1][2] - Some BOJ policymakers are concerned about the formation of a "second-round inflation effect," where inflation expectations become entrenched in corporate pricing behavior and public sentiment, prompting calls for a focus on actual price trends and inflation expectations [2][3] Group 2 - The BOJ ended a decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy last year and raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% in January, but the timing for the next rate hike has become complex due to external economic pressures [3] - Recent trade agreements with the U.S. have improved the BOJ's economic outlook, leading some members to call for adjustments to the dovish communication style, indicating a heightened awareness of inflationary pressures [3] - Observers suggest that the BOJ may phase out the "potential inflation" concept in its communications as it prepares for a possible rate hike as early as October [3]

日本央行行长植田和男：（被问及食品价格上涨是否会影响潜在通胀时）这将取决于食品通胀是否会如 预期般回落。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：关键在于潜在通胀是否更有可能达到2%。 ...