日本央行审议委员田村直树：预计今年工资增长将达到与2%物价目标相符的水平。潜在通胀正在逐步 上升，已非常接近达到并稳定在目标水平之上。对于我而言，决定日本央行价格目标是否达成的最后一 个关键因素在于，通胀是否已稳定在该目标水平之上。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide industry investment ratings [1] 2. Core Views - Aluminum is expected to have a slight rebound, alumina will experience range - bound fluctuations, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 23,810, with changes of 775 compared to T - 1, - 495 compared to T - 5, 1480 compared to T - 22, and 2900 compared to T - 66. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price is 319, with changes of 3099 compared to T - 1, 43 compared to T - 5, - 114 compared to T - 22, and 143 compared to T - 66. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts also have corresponding changes [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 2809, with changes of 37 compared to T - 1, 75 compared to T - 5, 255 compared to T - 22, and 9 compared to T - 66. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts also have corresponding changes [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 22,215, with changes of 375 compared to T - 1 and - 840 compared to T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts also have corresponding changes [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The spot premium/discount is - 220, the Shanghai bonded area premium is 175, the EU Rotterdam aluminum ingot premium (MB) is 345.0. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss is 7054.75, and the import profit and loss of aluminum spot and 3M also have corresponding values. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 82.90 million tons, the SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipts are 15.07 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory is 49.52 million tons [1] - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina is 2646, the alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port (USD/ton) is 330, and the alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port (CNY/ton) is 2720. The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises is 896 [1] - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The prices of bauxite imported from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea, as well as the price of Yangquan bauxite, have corresponding values and changes [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is 81, the price of Baotai ADC12 is 23,000, and the difference between Baotai ADC12 - A00 is - 290. The total inventory of three places has corresponding changes [1] 3.3 Other Information - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, alumina trend intensity is 0, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [2] - **External News**: Fed Governor Milan said that more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts are needed this year. The US House of Representatives approved a government financing bill to end a partial shutdown [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve needs to lower interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, as stated by Stephen Miran, a Trump-appointed director [1] - Miran emphasizes that potential inflation is not a concern and that there is not much strong price pressure observed in the economy, which supports his call for significant rate cuts [1] - He points out that better economic growth in the future does not require higher interest rates, indicating that the rise in long-term yields is partly due to improved growth expectations rather than increased inflation fears [1] Group 2 - Miran expresses anticipation for Kevin Warsh's performance as the next Federal Reserve Chair, following Trump's nomination of Warsh [1] - The market is speculating on a more hawkish balance sheet policy under Warsh's leadership, reflecting a shift in expectations regarding monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its economic growth forecast in an upcoming meeting, while keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged [2][6] - The economic growth forecast for the next fiscal year starting in April may be adjusted upward from the previous estimate of 0.7%, reflecting the impact of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recently approved economic plan [2][6] - Takaichi's fiscal measures amount to 17.7 trillion yen (approximately 113 billion USD), aimed at strengthening the economy and addressing long-term inflation [2][6] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, considering the effects of the government's new measures [2][6] - Officials believe these measures will help increase potential inflation, thereby enhancing the likelihood of achieving the Bank of Japan's economic forecasts [2][6] - Although the market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will act approximately every six months regarding interest rates, officials have stated they do not have a preset view on the future rate path [2][6] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan is discussing whether to lower its consumer price index (CPI) forecast excluding fresh food, but remains focused on overall price trends rather than temporary data fluctuations [3][7] - Officials do not see a need to adjust their potential inflation forecasts, expecting inflation performance to align with the Bank of Japan's price targets in the latter half of the three-year forecast period that began last April [3][7] - Due to a slowdown in food price increases and Takaichi's measures to curb utility costs, Japan's inflation pace is expected to slow in the coming months [3][7]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its economic growth forecast during the upcoming policy meeting while keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged [1] - The anticipated increase in the growth forecast reflects the impact of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's recently approved economic stimulus plan, which amounts to 17.7 trillion yen (approximately 113 billion USD) aimed at strengthening the economy and combating persistent inflation [1] - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate to 0.5% last month, the highest level since 1995, with officials believing that the government's new measures will enhance the likelihood of achieving the central bank's economic outlook and increase potential inflation levels [1][2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is expected to adjust its economic growth forecast upward in the quarterly economic outlook report to be released on January 23, with previous forecasts for the fiscal year starting in April set at 0.7% [1] - Officials do not see the need to adjust potential inflation forecasts to align with the central bank's outlook for reaching price targets in the latter half of the three-year forecast period that began last April [1] - The future pace of interest rate hikes remains flexible, with officials acknowledging market expectations of approximately six-month intervals between rate increases, but they have no preset stance on the future path following a recent hike [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicates that potential inflation is steadily approaching 2%, with price increases observed not only in food but also across other goods and services [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - Price increases are being seen in various sectors, not limited to food [1] - Companies are gradually passing on the rising costs of wages and inputs to consumers [1] Group 2: Wage Pressure - Unless the economy faces significant shocks, wages are likely to continue experiencing upward pressure [1]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Milan reiterated that the Fed's policy stance imposes unnecessary restrictions on the economy, suggesting that the "underlying" inflation level is close to the Fed's target after excluding "phantom inflation" [1][6][7] - Milan emphasized that U.S. households' pain from recent inflation is reasonable, stating that while prices are at higher levels, they have stabilized, and monetary policy should reflect this reality [1][6] - He warned that maintaining unnecessary tight policies could lead to unemployment, asserting that underlying inflation is running below 2.3%, within the target range of 2% [1][6][7] Group 2 - S&P Global reported that U.S. business activity continued to expand in December, but the pace of expansion slowed to the lowest in six months, with a cost input measure reaching a three-year high [2][7] - The preliminary Markit PMI data for December showed a composite PMI of 53, below the expected 53.9 and previous 54.2, with manufacturing PMI at 51.8 and services PMI at 52.9, both lower than expectations [2][7] - Despite the slowdown, the survey data indicates a projected annualized GDP growth rate of about 2.5% for the fourth quarter, although growth has decelerated for two consecutive months [2][7]

Group 1: Company News - Tesla's market value increased by over $53 billion in one night, reaching a total of over $600 billion, with CEO Elon Musk's net worth hitting $677 billion, making him the first person to reach or exceed this milestone [2][5]. - iRobot's stock plummeted over 72% after the company filed for bankruptcy protection, planning to be taken over by its main supplier and manufacturer in China, leading to its delisting [2][5]. - Pure Data Centres, supported by Oak Tree Capital, announced plans to invest up to €1 billion in a new data center campus in Amsterdam, marking one of the largest investment commitments in the European hyperscale data center sector this year [2][5]. Group 2: Market Overview - The Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened mixed, with the Nikkei 225 index down 0.23% and the KOSPI up 0.07%, both experiencing sharp declines shortly after opening [5]. - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.09% at 48,416.56 points, the Nasdaq down 0.59% at 23,057.41 points, and the S&P 500 down 0.16% at 6,816.51 points [5]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 2.17%, with notable declines in stocks such as Baidu (down nearly 5%), Kingsoft Cloud (down over 4%), and others [5].

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor appointed by President Trump, argues that the Fed's policy stance is unnecessarily restrictive and that underlying inflation is close to the Fed's target after excluding "phantom inflation" [1][3]. Group 1: Inflation Perspectives - Miran believes that the current inflation, which exceeds the target, does not accurately reflect the underlying supply and demand dynamics of the economy [3]. - The preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8% in September, above the 2% target, but Miran argues that housing inflation is a lagging indicator and does not reflect the current slowing rent growth [3]. - He anticipates that as the rent increases from the pandemic normalize, housing inflation will ease [3]. - Miran suggests that core inflation, excluding housing, food, and energy, is unlikely to face upward pressure due to a cooling labor market [3]. Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Miran warns that maintaining the Fed's policy rate at unnecessarily high levels could lead to increased unemployment, emphasizing that labor market deterioration can occur rapidly and non-linearly [4]. - He advocates for a quicker easing of monetary policy to approach a neutral stance, given the lag effects of monetary policy [4]. Group 3: Fed Policy Divergence - John Williams, the New York Fed President, expressed a contrasting view, indicating that the Fed's monetary policy is prepared for 2026, suggesting a higher threshold for further rate cuts [2][8]. - Susan Collins, the Boston Fed President, described her support for a recent rate cut as a difficult decision, citing ongoing concerns about persistent high inflation [2][8]. Group 4: Future Fed Governance - Miran indicated he might extend his tenure at the Fed beyond January, pending the confirmation of a new governor, which could alleviate pressure on Trump to nominate a successor quickly [7]. - The potential extension of Miran's term aligns with Trump's preference for appointing individuals who support aggressive rate cuts [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor, Michelle Bowman, stated that potential inflation remains within the 2% target range [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring inflation indicators to ensure they do not exceed the target [1] - Current inflation expectations are stable and do not suggest a significant risk of rising above the target [1]