智通财经记者 | 刘婷 不过，由于市场对此次加息已有充分预期，日本央行宣布加息后，日元汇率并未上涨。周五，日元对美元汇率几乎一路 下跌，截至北京时间18:30，日元对美元汇率报1美元兑157.3日元，较上日跌1.1%。 分析人士指出，近期日元走软是多重因素共振的结果，主要原因在于日本经济疲软、以及刺激性财政政策加剧市场对日 本政府债务的担忧。今年第三季度，日本国内生产总值（GDP）环比折年率为-1.8%，自2024年二季度来再现负增长。 为提振经济，高市早苗政府推出18.3万亿日元刺激计划，加重市场对日本债务风险的担忧。根据国际货币基金组织 （IMF）的数据，2025年，日本政府债务总额预计将达到其GDP的2.3倍。日元走软又会带来输入性通胀，导致日本通 胀居高不下。 日本央行周五宣布上调政策利率25个基点，为年内第二次加息，并暗示若条件允许将继续收紧货币政策。 本次加息后，日本政策利率升至0.75%，创1995年以来的最高水平。日本央行在政策声明中称，根据最近的数据和调查 判断，工资和通胀同步温和上涨的局面很有可能得以持续。鉴于实际利率处于极低水平，如果日本经济、价格表现符合 预期，日本央行将继续提高利率。 ...

近日，日本国债收益率集体上涨，特别是长债收益率出现明显上升，引发市场关注。 12月3日，日本10年期国债债券收益率徘徊在1.87%左右。截至12月4日上午10时，日本10年期国债 收益率已升破1.9%，徘徊在1.92%附近，逼近2%关键水平，创下2007年7月以来的最高水平。与此同 时，日本30年期国债收益率更是大幅飙升至3.44%，突破重要关口。 此番日本国债收益率的集体快速飙升，与市场对于日本央行将在12月加息的预期升温密切相关。本 周一，日本央行行长植田和男发表讲话，称"我们将研究和讨论国内外的经济和物价发展情况，以及市 场动态……并权衡提高利率的利弊。" 这一表态被市场看作是植田和男对外发出的最为明确的信号，这意味着日本央行很有可能在12月的 货币政策会议上选择加息。该消息一出，日元汇率和日本国债收益率都出现了不同程度的上涨。 在今年10月的货币政策会议上，日本央行宣布维持基准利率在0.5%不变，符合市场预期。不过， 日本央行内部出现分歧，"鹰"派声音渐起。有两名委员投出反对票，提议将利率从0.5%上调至0.75%。 日前，日本央行审议委员小枝淳子曾表示，鉴于实际利率目前处于非常低的水平，日本央行需要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's hawkish signals have triggered a global bond market sell-off, leading to rising yields in major economies and impacting high-risk assets like Bitcoin [1][3]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Changes - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at a rate hike in December, aiming to raise rates to 0.75% before discussing future paths [1][3]. - Following Ueda's statements, Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.07 percentage points to 1.87%, reflecting expectations of monetary policy normalization [3]. Group 2: Global Market Reactions - The shift in Japan's interest rate expectations has caused a ripple effect in the global fixed income market, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield experiencing its largest single-day increase in a month [4]. - Concerns arise that rising Japanese bond yields may lead domestic investors to withdraw funds from foreign government bonds, reducing demand [4]. Group 3: Impact on Risk Assets - The increase in yields for safe-haven assets has pressured risk assets, with Bitcoin dropping 5.5% in a single day and over 20% in the past month [2][6]. - The tech sector in the U.S. was notably affected, with the Nasdaq Composite Index falling by 0.4% and the S&P 500 down by 0.5% [2][6]. Group 4: Liquidity and Trading Strategies - The unwinding of carry trades, where investors borrow in low-yield currencies like the yen to invest in higher-yield assets, has intensified the sell-off in risk assets [5][6]. - The sell-off in bonds has led to a broader contraction in market risk appetite, affecting various sectors including technology and cryptocurrencies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, has signaled a strong possibility of monetary policy action this month, indicating that the authorities will make a correct decision regarding interest rate hikes [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Signals - Ueda stated that the Bank of Japan will weigh the pros and cons of raising policy rates and will make decisions based on domestic and international economic conditions, inflation, and financial market situations [1]. - Following Ueda's speech, the probability of an interest rate hike at the next policy meeting on December 19 is estimated at approximately 64%, with a 90% chance of action by January or earlier [1]. - Ueda's comments are perceived as slightly hawkish, potentially marking a turning point for the Japanese yen [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The recent depreciation of the yen, which fell to 157.89 against the dollar, has raised concerns about increased import costs and inflation burdens on households [2]. - The Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, is expected to support the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike due to the need to address the cost of living crisis, following significant economic stimulus measures announced last month [2]. - Ueda emphasized that appropriate policy adjustments are necessary to guide the Japanese economy towards sustainable growth, ensuring the success of previous efforts by the government and the central bank [3].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's core CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year in October, driven by rising food prices, increasing expectations for the central bank to raise policy rates soon to curb inflation [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The nationwide price level, excluding volatile fresh food, increased compared to the previous month, following a 2.9% rise in September, highlighting the negative impact of the sharp depreciation of the yen on import costs [1] - Since April 2022, this key inflation indicator has remained at or above the Bank of Japan's target of 2% [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policy - The Bank of Japan has emphasized the importance of normalizing interest rates to ensure price stability [1] Group 3: Economic Dependency - Japan, being resource-poor, heavily relies on imports to meet its food and energy needs [1]

Core Insights - US Treasury yields rose slightly as investors awaited a delayed employment report, which is expected to provide key insights into the health of the US economy [1][3] Group 1: US Treasury Market - The yields on US Treasuries increased slightly, with the 2-year yield rising by 1.2 basis points to 3.61%, the 10-year yield up by 1.3 basis points to 4.146%, and the 30-year yield increasing by 0.3 basis points to 4.755% [1] - The delayed employment report, which combines October and November data due to a government shutdown, is anticipated to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December [3][4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Analysts from Deutsche Bank noted that attention is shifting to the delayed September employment report, which could impact the likelihood of a rate cut in December, especially if the data shows weakness [4] - According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders estimate a 31% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower the benchmark overnight lending rate by 0.25 percentage points in December [5] Group 3: International Bond Markets - European bond yields rose, with the 10-year German bond yield increasing by 2.3 basis points to 2.734%, the 10-year Italian bond yield up by 3.5 basis points to 3.491%, and the 10-year French bond yield rising by 3.3 basis points to 3.496% [5] - In Japan, bond yields also rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 3 basis points to 0.958% and the 10-year yield up by 5.6 basis points to 1.816% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated to a ten-month low, prompting discussions within the Bank of Japan about the need for monetary policy normalization, with potential interest rate hikes on the horizon [1][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Central Bank Actions - Junko Koeda, a member of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board, emphasized the necessity for interest rate normalization due to the current low real interest rates [1]. - Recent economic indicators in Japan are generally robust, with a potential inflation rate around 2%, suggesting that the Bank's price target is nearly achieved [5]. - A Reuters survey indicated that 53% of economists expect a 25 basis point rate hike to 0.75% at the upcoming policy meeting on December 18-19 [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Government Concerns - Following Koeda's speech, the yen briefly fell against the dollar before recovering, indicating mixed market expectations regarding a more aggressive rate hike commitment [1]. - The Japanese government, particularly Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, expressed concerns over the recent "one-sided and sudden" fluctuations in the exchange rate, highlighting the importance of stability [4]. - The yen's depreciation has been partly attributed to reduced expectations for recent Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the yen falling below 157 against the dollar, marking its weakest level since January [4]. Group 3: Diverging Market Expectations - Despite increasing calls for a rate hike, market confidence in immediate action from the Bank of Japan appears to be waning, as indicated by a decrease in overnight swap market bets for a rate increase next month [6]. - Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, known for advocating expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, has urged caution regarding interest rate hikes, suggesting that the earliest possible increase might be in March next year [6]. - Wage growth remains a critical factor for the Bank of Japan's decision-making, with 81% of economists predicting that next year's wage increases will not exceed this year's 5.25% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy adjustments will depend on a detailed assessment of economic and price trends, despite inflation gradually approaching the 2% target [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Potential inflation is gradually moving towards the 2% target, but there is insufficient evidence to confirm its stability [1]. - Recent inflation rates in Japan have exceeded potential inflation rates, indicating a relatively strong performance in overall prices [3]. - The Bank of Japan will monitor temporary supply-side factors, such as rising food prices, which may affect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Bank of Japan emphasizes a gradual approach to normalizing monetary policy, opposing hasty actions [1][2]. - There is a necessity to normalize interest rates to avoid future distortions, with a clear indication that the central bank should continue to raise policy rates based on economic activity and price improvements [2]. - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates by December 2025, with recent statements reinforcing this expectation [2]. Group 3: Currency and Market Stability - The impact of yen fluctuations on domestic prices is a significant concern, with a focus on how exchange rate stability reflects economic fundamentals [1]. - The Bank of Japan is prepared to intervene in the market through increased bond purchases and emergency operations to maintain market stability during rapid and irregular fluctuations in long-term yields [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as next month, signaling a shift towards normalizing monetary policy amid a significant depreciation of the yen against the dollar [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Normalization - Junko Koeda, a member of the Bank of Japan's policy board, emphasized the necessity of advancing interest rate normalization due to the currently low real interest rates [1] - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by January at the latest, with Koeda's comments reinforcing expectations for potential action in December [1] Group 2: Currency Impact - Following Koeda's speech, the yen weakened further against the dollar, indicating that investors are awaiting clearer signals regarding interest rate hikes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's board member Junko Koeda emphasizes the need for interest rate normalization to prevent future distortions, citing a current potential inflation rate of approximately 2% due to robust economic indicators, a tight labor market, and a return to normal supply-demand balance [1] Economic Indicators - Recent economic indicators in Japan are reported to be generally stable, contributing to the potential inflation rate [1] - The labor market conditions are described as tight, indicating a strong demand for labor [1] - Supply-demand balance is noted to have largely returned to normal, supporting economic stability [1]