随着美联储主席鲍威尔上周在杰克逊霍尔释放鸽派信号，市场风险偏好得到有力提振。联邦基金利率期 货定价显示，投资者预计美联储将在去年12月之后，时隔9个月再次下调政策利率。 回顾历史，长时间停顿后恢复降息可能对股市特别有利，刺激股市更大规模反弹。不过市场人士认为， 这将取决于未来的政策路径，目前还有诸多不确定性。 历史数据优异 卡森集团（Carson Group）首席市场策略师德特里克（Ryan Detrick）统计发现，在美联储降息周期时隔 5-12个月重启的过去11次案例中，标普500指数接下来一年内有10次上涨，比例接近90%，平均涨幅达 到12.9%，唯一一次例外是2001年互联网泡沫破裂阶段。 虽然具体原因很难确定，但德特里克认为投资者心理可能是一个因素。"你可以回到美联储更温和的立 场。也许此前对暂停降息的一些担忧已经得到缓解，在某种程度上，它又回到了你之前计划的牛市。" | | Long Waits Between Cuts Can Be Quite Bullish S&P 500 Returns After The Fed Waits Between 5-12 Months To Cut | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation are not as severe as initially announced, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy considerations [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Daly suggests that if tariff measures are not in place, the normalization of interest rates will be considered [1] - Continuous decline in inflation is viewed as positive news [1]

Group 1 - The Norwegian central bank has decided to lower the policy interest rate from 4.5% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating increased confidence in the decline of inflation [1] - The central bank anticipates further rate cuts in 2025, with projections suggesting the policy rate could drop to just below 4% by the end of 2025 and around 3% by the end of 2028 [1] - Average mortgage rates are expected to decrease from the current 5.6% to 4.6% by 2028 [1] Group 2 - Although the central bank believes a restrictive policy is still necessary, it is now in a position to cautiously normalize interest rates while ensuring inflation returns to target levels without overly restricting the economy [2] - The central bank's governor emphasized the commitment to achieving the inflation target of 2%, with policy adjustments to be made based on economic performance [2] - Geopolitical conflicts and changes in trade policies may lead to financial market volatility, impacting both the global and Norwegian economic outlook [2]

Group 1 - The international silver price is currently trading below $36.30, with a recent opening at $36.72 per ounce and a current price of $36.43, reflecting a decrease of 0.83% [1] - The highest price reached today was $36.81 per ounce, while the lowest was $36.29 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend in the silver market [1] - Recent data shows that Japan's Q1 actual GDP annualized contraction rate has narrowed to 0.2%, significantly improving from the initial value of -0.7%, which exceeded market expectations [2] Group 2 - The Japanese government is considering measures to strengthen fiscal credibility in response to rising government debt financing costs as interest rates increase [2] - Japan's government plans to initiate low-yield bond repurchase operations to alleviate pressure from soaring long-term bond yields, aligning with previous policies to reduce long-term bond supply [2] - Japanese investors significantly reduced their holdings in German bonds by 1.48 trillion yen in April, the highest since 2014, and also recorded the largest monthly sell-off of U.S. bonds in nearly six months, amounting to 1.07 trillion yen [2] Group 3 - The international silver price recently surged, breaking through $36.69 per ounce, marking a new high since 2012, with an intraday increase of 2.00% [3] - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $37.00-$37.50 per ounce, with potential further challenges towards the $40 mark, while short-term support is noted at $35.50-$36.00 per ounce [3]

Currency Market Overview - The Euro is maintaining significant declines around 1.1350 against the US Dollar, while the British Pound faces selling pressure below 1.3550 [1] - The Japanese Yen continues to decline, moving away from a one-month high reached earlier in the day [1] - The Australian Dollar is experiencing a pullback after reaching a year-to-date high, while the New Zealand Dollar struggles to break through the year-to-date high of 0.6030 [1] - The US Dollar is rebounding against the Canadian Dollar from a seven-month low, approaching the previous support area of 1.3750-1.3765, where bulls may face challenges [1] Economic Indicators - Germany's Gfk Consumer Confidence Index for June recorded -19.9, marking the highest level since November 2024 [2] - The German economy is expected to contract by 0.3% this year, with inflation projected at 2.1% in 2025, down from 2.2% in 2024 [3] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde stated that US policies provide opportunities to enhance the global status of the Euro [3] - The Bank of Japan has lost its position as the world's largest creditor for the first time in 34 years, with Finance Minister Kato emphasizing the importance of currency stability reflecting fundamentals [3][4] Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan is considering adjustments to its bond issuance plan, potentially reducing the issuance of ultra-long bonds [4] - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda has lowered economic and inflation outlooks due to increasing uncertainties, particularly related to trade policies, but still expects inflation to gradually approach 2% in the latter half of the forecast period [4] - The Bank of Israel has maintained its interest rate unchanged for the 11th consecutive time [6] - The Swedish central bank's Deputy Governor Jansson anticipates that the recent strengthening of the Swedish Krona will continue [7] Market Expectations - A Reuters survey indicates that 36 economists expect the Bank of Korea to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on May 29, with a forecast of a total reduction of 75 basis points to 2.00% by the end of Q4 2025 [7] - The General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements, Carstens, stated that central banks should not expect to stabilize inflation in a very short time frame, emphasizing the need for fiscal authorities to manage rising public debt [7] Technical Analysis - The Euro/Dollar pair shows a "inverted hammer" pattern, indicating temporary bearish pressure, with a critical support level at 1.1300 that must be broken for further declines [8] - The Pound/Dollar pair's sustained breakthrough above 1.3434/44 could signal a continuation of upward momentum, targeting levels of 1.3643/1.3748 [8] - The Australian Dollar/Dollar pair has broken out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, leading to increased volatility and upward movement, supported by a bullish trend indicated by the 20-day EMA around 0.6426 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Villeroy indicated that the normalization of interest rates may not be over yet [1] Group 1 - Villeroy's comments suggest that there may be further adjustments to interest rates in the future [1] - The statement reflects ongoing considerations within the ECB regarding monetary policy and economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Bank of France Governor Villeroy indicates that France's inflation is a very encouraging sign, suggesting that the normalization of interest rates may not be over yet [1] Group 1 - Villeroy highlights that the current inflation situation in France is a positive development [1] - The statement implies that the ECB may continue its path towards interest rate normalization in response to inflation trends [1]

Economic Challenges - Japan's economy faced two major challenges: weak consumer market performance and export impacts due to tariffs [2][8] - In Q1 2025, Japan's GDP contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, marking the first decline since Q2 2024, with annualized GDP shrinking by 0.7% [2] - Private consumption remained flat in Q1, contributing only 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth, while net exports negatively impacted GDP growth by 3.3 percentage points due to a 0.6% decline in exports [2][3] Inflation and Consumer Spending - High inflation has led to stagnation in consumer spending, with the GDP deflator index rising by 3.3% year-on-year in Q1, surpassing the previous year's 3.1% [2] - Despite a 4.3% increase in employee compensation in Q1, real disposable income for households fell by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of negative growth [3] Export and Tariff Impacts - The appreciation of the yen and U.S. tariffs have significantly impacted Japan's exports, with a reported 8.2% appreciation against the dollar as of May 20 [3][4] - In March, Japan's export growth slowed to 5.6% year-on-year, down from 9% the previous year, indicating a decline in export performance [3] Automotive Industry and Tariffs - The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on key automotive parts, which could severely affect Japan's automotive industry, a critical sector contributing 50% of manufacturing output and 30% of total exports [4] - Estimates suggest that U.S. tariffs could reduce Japan's GDP by 0.59% and lead to a potential profit loss of nearly $30 billion in the automotive sector [4] Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The Bank of Japan is in a difficult position, needing to balance interest rate normalization with the risk of further economic suppression and currency depreciation [5] - As of May 10, the Bank of Japan's total assets decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [5][7] Bond Market and Liquidity Issues - Japan's bond market is experiencing significant sell-offs due to tariff impacts and quantitative tightening, leading to liquidity pressures [7] - The auction for 20-year government bonds on May 20 was the worst since 2012, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.5 times, reflecting market concerns [7] Overall Market Outlook - Japan's economy is under pressure from weak consumption and tariff impacts, with the potential for significant risks in the stock market [8] - Investors may consider using micro Nikkei 225 index futures to hedge against these risks in the current economic climate [8]