与去年经济增长显得步履蹒跚完全不同，今年以来，日本经济复苏的力度明显增强，迈开的跨度也成倍 加大。不过，美国关税政策的重大冲击、消费韧性的欠缺与不足，外加全球经济减速的压力，诸多负面 因素的叠加与累积，随时都可能打断与破坏日本经济的复苏节奏，甚至不排除会因此出现再度衰退的凶 兆，而面对经济增长前景的不确定性，同时审视通胀态势，日本央行重新启动加息政策也变得较为艰 难。 "三驾马车"齐力向前 在是否加息的选择上，日本央行更多考虑的是国内因素，为此它需要在维持经济增长的持续性与通货膨 胀改善的连续性上取得平衡。 无疑，美国关税政策成为了影响日本出口的最大变量。即便是美国对日本只征收15%的封顶出口关税， 日本的出口其实也难以承受其重。汽车出口占日本出口近三成比重，其中去年日本对美出口汽车130万 辆，占其全球出口量的35%，按照日本共同社的预估，以15%的关税计征，丰田、本田等日本七大车企 2025财年营业利润将合计缩水2.67万亿日元，而一个既成事实是，最新7月份日本对美国的汽车出口额 同比下降28.4%，比6月份26.7%的降幅更大，受到影响，作为日本最大的出口市场，美国进口日本的商 品在二季度同比大幅下滑的 ...

若以更长期的视角来看，今年以来日债整体承压明显，以20年期日本国债为例，其收益率年内涨幅已近 45%。 收益率攀升之际，日本财务省或将调高国债利息支付的暂定利率。据悉，日本财务省计划将下一财年国 债利息支付暂定利率定为2.6%，创17年来最高水平。据悉，该利率是通过对近期市场的国债收益率进 行平均，并再加上1.1个百分点以反映历史波动。2.6%的利率将是2009年以来的最高水平。 自5月"惊雷"乍响之后，日债就如同打开了"潘多拉魔盒"：长期限日本国债收益率短暂回落后持续攀 升，并在近日创下阶段性新高。 分析人士认为，日本财政赤字风险与政策不确定性共振致使日债投资者"望而却步"，叠加日本央行缩减 购债规模计划所导致的供需失衡矛盾仍在，日债短期内持续承压。鉴于日债市场风险警报尚未解除，日 本央行货币政策路径调整仍维持谨慎步伐。 日债收益率节节攀升 近期，日本国债收益率节节攀升，多期限收益率接连创下阶段性新高。 8月22日，日本20年期国债收益率一度触及2.67%以上，创下1999年以来最高水平。日本10年期国债收 益率也连升8个交易日，于8月21日收于1.615%，为2008年10月以来新高。 一段时间以来，日债 ...

新华财经北京8月22日电（王菁）近两日，日本超长期政府债券收益率攀升至数十年来的高点，这场风暴背后或预示着日本货币政策转折点与全球资本格局 的重新定价。 截至8月22日当地市场尾盘，20年期国债收益率上行3BPs至2.671%，创下自1999年以来的最高水平，30年期国债收益率攀升3.6BPs至3.217%，较日内创下的 历史高点3.236%稍有回退。 此外，全球债市的联动效应也不容忽视。摩根大通资产管理部门全球利率主管Seamus Mac Gorain认为，日本国债波动与美国和欧洲债券市场存在高度联动 性。当全球主要经济体国债遭遇抛售时，日本市场很难独善其身。 业内人士表示，这场剧烈波动源自日本通胀持续高企、财政政策面临扩张压力以及全球贸易局势变化等多重因素的相互交织。市场正在重新评估日本央行货 币政策正常化的路径与节奏。 收益率曲线骤然陡化三股力量引发超长债抛售 整体来看，通胀预期升温与货币政策转向担忧，共同触发了本轮超长债收益率的接连上行。 数据显示，日本7月份核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，虽较6月的3.3%有所回落，但仍连续第三个月超过日本央行2%的目标水平。更为关键的是，剔除新鲜食品和 能源价格的核心 ...

"买方真空"风险显现 日债收益率迭创新高 ◎记者 陈佳怡 黄冰玉 自5月"惊雷"乍响之后，日债就如同打开了"潘多拉魔盒"：长期限日本国债收益率短暂回落后持续攀 升，并在近日创下阶段性新高。 分析人士认为，日本财政赤字风险与政策不确定性共振致使日债投资者"望而却步"，叠加日本央行缩减 购债规模计划所导致的供需失衡矛盾仍在，日债短期内持续承压。鉴于日债市场风险警报尚未解除，日 本央行货币政策路径调整仍维持谨慎步伐。 日债收益率节节攀升 财政隐忧"绊住"投资者 分析认为，日债持续承压的直接原因在于供需两端的不匹配，其本质是日本财政的隐忧令部分投资 者"望而却步"。 据报道，在7月20日举行的日本第27届参议院选举中，由自民党和公明党组成的执政联盟丧失参议院过 半数议席。这是自民党自1955年成立以来，首次在国会众参两院都未能取得过半数席位。 这场选举结果，直接将日本财政政策推向"宽松加码"的预期漩涡，加剧了市场对日本债务问题的担 忧。"当前日本国债收益率持续攀升，在一定程度上受财政赤字风险与政策不确定性共振影响。"东方金 诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪表示，投资者担忧，若执政联盟为稳选情转向财政扩张，日本国债的风险 溢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is undergoing significant changes as the Bank of Japan normalizes its monetary policy after decades of near-zero interest rates and aggressive quantitative easing, leading to a substantial rise in government bond yields [1][10][13] Group 1: Bond Yield Changes - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached 1.62%, an increase of 72 basis points year-on-year, while the 30-year yield surged to 3.236%, effectively doubling within a year [3][10] - The yield curve has steepened, indicating rising term premiums as investors seek compensation for duration risk [10][11] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Japan announced a slower pace of bond purchases, with a plan to reduce monthly purchases to approximately 3 trillion yen between January and March 2026, reflecting a cautious approach to tightening monetary policy [5][7] - As of August 8, the Bank of Japan held 561.73 trillion yen in Japanese government bonds, with over 78% in long-term and super-long-term bonds [5][6] Group 3: Debt Levels and Economic Impact - Japan's government debt is projected to reach 1,129 trillion yen by the end of the fiscal year 2025, with total central and local government long-term debt expected to hit 1,330 trillion yen, representing 211% of GDP [7][10] - The actual interest rates on government debt have been rising slowly but remain below inflation levels, supporting a decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio [1][10] Group 4: Market Reactions and Investor Behavior - Japanese investors are reallocating funds from foreign assets back to domestic bonds due to rising interest rates and changing global monetary policies, with a net reduction in overseas long-term bonds [10][11] - The bond market is no longer seen as a safe haven for global investors, with increased volatility prompting a preference for short-term bonds or high-quality corporate bonds [11][12] Group 5: Future Outlook - Market expectations indicate a 64% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the end of the year, with potential further hikes in 2026 [9][12] - The normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy is viewed as a pivotal moment for global fixed income and foreign exchange markets, reshaping capital flows and investment strategies [12][13]

出于对日本财政状况和通胀持续的担忧，日本债市再陷抛售潮，长期国债收益率一度飙升至十 年以来高位。 8月21日，日本长期国债收益率集体飙涨。日本10年期国债收益率亦升至1.61%， 为2008 年10月以来新高 。与此同时，日本20年期国债收益率一度升至2.655%， 创下1999年以来 的最高水平 ；30年期国债收益率也攀升至3.18%，逼近7月份创下的3.2%的历史高点，显 示出收益率曲线整体上移的压力。 截至北京时间20点左右，日本10年期国债收益率报1.611%；日本20年期国债收益率有所回 落，报2.645%；30年期国债收益率继续上扬，报3.191%。 另一方面， 日本持续的通胀压力，增加了日本央行采取加息行动的可能性，也推高了债券收 益率。 与此同时，海外投资情绪似乎也受到影响。有数据显示，7月海外投资者对10年期以上 日本国债的净购买额降至4800亿日元（约合33亿美元），仅为6月份购买额的三分之一。 日本长期国债收益率飙升还会持续多久？若日本国债继续承压，日本政府会出手干预吗？ 记者丨 胡慧茵 编辑丨和佳 日债抛售压力何来？ 日本长期国债收益率在8月初曾短暂回落，之后持续飙升并达到历史高位。 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese government is set to implement the largest salary increase for civil servants in 34 years, with an average monthly basic salary increase of 3.62%, leading to a total salary increase of 5.1% for this year [1][2] - This salary adjustment will affect approximately 280,000 civil servants, which is seen as a positive development for the Bank of Japan as it seeks to establish a sustainable wage growth to support inflation [2][5] - The salary increase is influenced by the recent wage negotiations in the private sector, where companies have agreed to an average salary increase of 5.25%, marking the largest increase in 34 years [5][6] Group 2 - The Japanese government has been under pressure to provide competitive salaries in the public sector to attract and retain talent, especially in light of a declining population and difficulties in recruiting young professionals [5][6] - A report indicated that the number of recent graduates applying for public sector jobs has reached a historical low, prompting the government to propose an increase in starting salaries by over 5% [6][7] - The estimated cost of implementing the proposed salary increase for civil servants is approximately 334 billion yen (about 2.3 billion USD) [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Japan's central bank must exercise caution regarding interest rate hikes due to the potential negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the fragile economy [1][2] - Saito Ken emphasizes that the Bank of Japan should act carefully to avoid cooling the economy, which is currently trying to recover from decades of low growth and inflation [2][3] - The Bank of Japan ended a decade-long stimulus program last year and raised interest rates to 0.5% in January, but concerns about inflation remain [3] Group 2 - Political uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariffs is overshadowing Japan's economic outlook [4] - Saito Ken calls for the resignation of Prime Minister Kishida after the ruling coalition's poor performance in the recent Senate elections, which has weakened their control over the legislature [5][6] - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) needs to seek a stable coalition government under new leadership to maintain consistent policies [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of Japan is likely to initiate interest rate hikes by the end of 2023 due to persistent inflation exceeding expectations [1] - Recent inflation performance has led the Bank of Japan to significantly raise its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 2.5% during the July policy meeting [1] - The removal of the downward risk language in inflation forecasts indicates a significant increase in confidence among decision-makers regarding sustained price increases [1] Group 2 - A virtuous cycle of wage growth and inflation is forming, with structural changes in corporate pricing behavior reinforcing the basis for monetary policy normalization [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise the policy rate from the current -0.1% at the October policy meeting, marking the first rate hike since 2007 [1] - The central bank is anticipated to adopt a gradual tightening path while closely monitoring the potential impact of economic slowdowns in the US and Europe on Japan's external demand [1] Group 3 - The technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY has reached a high near previous peaks, with short-term upward momentum approaching overbought territory [2] - The MACD indicator is consistently above the zero line, with the fast line (DIFF) at 0.908, higher than the slow line (DEA) at 0.784 [2]

新京报贝壳财经记者 张晓翀 编辑 岳彩周 校对 刘军 7月31日，日本央行货币政策决策会议决定，将作为政策利率的无担保隔夜拆借利率维持在0.5%左右的 水平不变。出席货币政策会议的9名央行审议委员一致同意了上述决定。 日本央行曾于今年1月会议中将政策利率从约0.25%上调至约0.5%。在此后的4次会议中，考虑到美国关 税政策不确定性对日本经济可能产生的影响，日本央行的政策利率均维持不变。 2025年日本通胀水平整体仍处于高位，日本食品价格的上涨成为推动通胀走升的重要因素，由于大米和 其他食品成本持续上涨，日本央行在季度报告中上调了本财年的通胀预期。这被市场视为日本央行最有 可能继续加息的理由之一。 从核心CPI来看，5月日本核心CPI同比增速达到3.7%，为2023年1月以来最高水平。6月日本核心CPI同 比从29个月以来的高点3.7%降至3.3%，但仍然远高于日本央行希望的2%的物价目标。 这种顽固的通胀压力或将迫使日本央行重新审视货币政策方向，以防止物价过快上涨对经济造成更大的 冲击。 日本央行当天还发表了经济与物价形势展望报告，将2025年日本去除生鲜食品后的核心消费价格指数同 比涨幅预测值从此前的2. ...