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中谷物流(603565):25Q3业绩有所下滑,Q4内贸旺季有望带动盈利回升
CMS· 2025-11-07 05:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in performance in Q3 2025, but the domestic trade peak season in Q4 is expected to drive a recovery in profitability [1]. - The foreign trade sector remains robust, with significant improvements in profitability due to high rental rates for container ships and an increase in the number of chartered vessels [2]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, indicating strong long-term investment value [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue reached 7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.41 billion yuan, an increase of 27.2% [1]. - Q3 revenue was 2.56 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 340 million yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year and 35.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 improved to 22.3%, an increase of 9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.967 billion yuan, 2.028 billion yuan, and 1.931 billion yuan respectively, with a slight downward adjustment for 2025 due to Q3 performance but an upward adjustment for 2026-2027 [7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.94 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.8 [3][16]. Market Position and Shareholder Information - The company has a total market capitalization of 23.2 billion yuan, with a significant shareholder, Zhonggu Logistics Group, holding 57.46% of the shares [4]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) stands at 21.6%, indicating strong profitability relative to shareholder equity [4].