Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in polysilicon futures prices reflect a struggle between strong policy expectations and weak market realities, leading to increased supply pressure and potential market imbalances [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Polysilicon futures prices reached a recent high of 53,400 yuan/ton before retreating to 49,300 yuan/ton, with a significant increase in open interest and a daily rise of 4.5% to 52,740 yuan/ton on August 15 [1]. - The operating rate of polysilicon enterprises has risen significantly, with the industry operating rate at 45% and weekly production climbing to 29,200 tons [2]. - Despite a decrease in inventory for polysilicon enterprises over the past two weeks, downstream inventory has increased, with current weekly polysilicon inventory at 268,800 tons, indicating a high level of stock [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The core contradiction in the polysilicon market is the limited actual transaction volume despite rising prices, with strong supply and weak demand persisting [3]. - There are expectations of supply contraction due to potential production limits announced for September, which could lead to a decrease in polysilicon output [3]. - The market is currently influenced by strong expectations of policy changes, with a key meeting scheduled for August 19 that may impact market sentiment and pricing [3]. Group 3: Future Price Trends - The short-term price trajectory of polysilicon is highly dependent on the strength and timing of policy signals, with the next month being critical for potential policy implementation [4]. - If the path for capacity reduction becomes clear, prices may continue to rise; however, if policy measures fall short of expectations, market sentiment may decline, leading to a potential price drop [4]. - Currently, the driving forces for price movement in both directions are weak, suggesting that polysilicon prices may remain in a high-level fluctuation pattern in the near term [4].