投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 高位出现分歧，锂价面临回调压力 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-11-24 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号： F03123927 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅 ：去库加大、成本上移 ，工业 硅震荡偏强 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）全国周产8.92 万吨，环比-1.42%；全国开炉262 台，环比-5台。 | | 供给端 | 偏多 | （2）主产区：新疆地区周产4.97 吨，环比-2.84%，开炉数环比-2台。内蒙古地区周产1.11 万吨，环比-1.60%，开炉数环比一致。云南地区周 | | | | 产0.69 万吨，环比一致，开炉数环比-2台。四川地区周产0.68 万吨，环比-1.4 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 炒作提振工业硅价格，硅片再度下调报价 | 报告日期： | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 2025 11 月 | 年 | | | | | 日 | | 孙伟东 从业资格号: | 有色金属首席分析师 F3035243 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | Tel: | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询号: Email: | | | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] | 4 台、云南减少 2 | | | 根据铁合金在线，本周新疆减少 | | | | 台，内蒙古 | | | | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 1 | | 台，甘肃增加 | | | | | | | | | 增加 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 23 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Z0014605 8621-63325888 weidong.sun@orientfutures.com | ...

行业 能源化工周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油、沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 | ⇒ 原油 . | | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price has a slight increase, and after the production reduction in Southwest China during the dry - season, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and inventory accumulation slows down. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies pushing for capacity exit, the futures price may rise. - For polysilicon, both supply and demand have weakened, with large inventory pressure and average consumption performance. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly [2][7]. 3. Summary by Topic Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On November 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped. The main contract 2601 opened at 9365 yuan/ton and closed at 9075 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.37% from the previous settlement. The 2511 main contract held 273978 positions, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43297, a decrease of 115 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: The industrial silicon spot price increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9500 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 54.8 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons from last week. The social general warehouse inventory was 12.9 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 41.9 tons, unchanged from last week [1]. - **Export and Import**: In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 4.51 tons, a sharp decrease of 36% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 60.67 tons, a decrease of 1% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 was 0.86 tons, a decrease of 67% year - on - year [2]. - **Consumption**: The price of silicone DMC continued to rise, with the current market quotation ranging from 13000 to 13200 yuan/ton, an increase of about 850 yuan/ton or 6.9% from last week's average price. In October 2025, the export volume of primary polysiloxanes from China was 4.1 tons, a decrease of 13.5% month - on - month and 5.7% year - on - year [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term range operation, and for dry - season contracts, buy on dips [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On November 20, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2601 fluctuated weakly. It opened at 54500 yuan/ton and closed at 52450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous trading day. The main contract held 134292 positions, and the trading volume was 304835 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [5]. - **Inventory and Production**: Polysilicon factory inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.10, a change of 1.50% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.72GW, a change of 1.63% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 27100.00 tons, a change of 1.11% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 12.78GW, a change of - 2.59% month - on - month [5]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component Prices**: Silicon wafer prices fell due to poor order demand. The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.26 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.60 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.27 yuan/piece. The prices of various types of battery cells and components remained stable [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 and 55,000 yuan/ton [7].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 | 股指期货：A 股再受考验 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：消息扰动下，债市表现分化 4 | 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 21 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 蛋白粕：利多带动有限 粕类继续承压 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价继续震荡 国内糖价震荡略涨 5 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 现货略有回落 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 9 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 果价稳定为主 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 棉价震荡为主 11 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，铁水仍有压减空间 13 | | --- | | 双焦：现货价格高位回调，盘面偏弱运行 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：供需双弱，成本支撑区间震荡 15 | | 贵金属：美国非农信号不一 金银延续震荡 16 | | --- | | 铜：短期关注下方支撑 17 | | 氧化铝：实质性减产仍未兑现 关注仓单 ...

2025年11月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：镍价破位下行，承压震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：弱现实压制钢价，但下方难言广阔 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：去库速度放缓，市场情绪降温或带来回调 | 4 | | 工业硅：盘面弱势格局 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注下方支撑位 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 21 日 镍：镍价破位下行，承压震荡运行 不锈钢：弱现实压制钢价，但下方难言广阔 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 115,380 | -270 | -3,550 | -4,370 | -5,8 ...

| 业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 | 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月21日 | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | | | | | | | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | 品种 | | | | | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9550 | 9450 | 100 | 1.06% | 墓差 (通室S15530章准) | 475 | 60 | 415 | 691.67% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9750 | 9800 | 50 | 0.51% | 元/吨 | 基差 (Sl4210基准) | -75 | -440 | 82.95% | 365 | | 新疆99硅 | 9000 | 8850 | 1.69% | 120 | 基差(新疆) | 725 | 260 | 465 | 178.85% | | | 月间价差 | 合约 | ...

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Market sentiment is cautious, with copper prices oscillating. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract is expected to range between 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton. Follow demand changes and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [1]. Zinc - The fundamentals offer limited support for continuous upward movement of SHFE zinc, which is likely to oscillate in the short term. The main contract is expected to range between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton. Look out for demand improvement and non - recessionary interest - rate cut expectations [3]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains in a supply - demand surplus, with prices likely to remain weak. The main contract is expected to range between 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum is caught between macro - level positives and weak fundamentals, with the medium - term supply expected to be tight [4]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, and demand shows regional differences. With positive semiconductor sentiment, long positions can be held. Monitor macro changes and Myanmar's supply recovery [6]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will stay firm, supported by costs. The main contract is expected to range between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Track scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory changes [9]. Nickel - The nickel market faces macro pressure, and the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to range between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian policies [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has insufficient macro - level drivers and weak demand. The supply pressure remains. The main contract is expected to range between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Monitor steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market shows strong short - term momentum. The market may continue to be strong, followed by wide - range oscillations. Be cautious when chasing long positions at current levels [15]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Futures may decline. Monitor inventory pressure, spot support, and demand orders [16]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, mainly between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Consider short - selling or hedging at high prices [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 86,715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The refined - scrap spread increased by 8.98% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, imports were 0.3343 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.45% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production was 0.6172 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, imports were 0.0227 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [3]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.42%. Alumina prices in different regions were mostly stable [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7421 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [4]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 291,500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09% [6]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 21,450 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread in different regions decreased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.645 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The regenerated aluminum alloy开工率 decreased [9]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 117,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.56%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased to 897 yuan/nickel point [11]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production in October was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Imports in September were 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained at 12,700 yuan/ton. The raw material prices such as nickel ore and chromium iron decreased [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.8217 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. Indonesia's production was 0.4235 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose to 88,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.72%. The lithium ore price also increased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. Demand was 126,961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [15]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, while futures prices rose to 54,625 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts increased [16]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74%. Monthly production was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Industrial silicon spot prices were unchanged, while futures prices rose to 9,390 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts changed [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The national开工率 was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98% [17].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 受情绪及消息扰动，工业硅多晶硅盘面大幅上涨 工业硅： 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13000-13200（350）元/吨。SMM报道，当日有机硅单体企业实控人会议 价格方面相关信息，据SMM了解，有机硅DMC指导价格在13000-13200元/吨，较联合挺价前（即11月12日），近一 周累计涨幅约1700-2000元/吨。其他下游产品价格同步跟涨，其中107胶价格在13700-14000元/吨、生胶价格在14000 元/吨、硅油在14700元/吨，近一周累计涨幅约1700-2200元/吨。 策略 现货价格持稳，部分价格上调，西南减产后，供需格局或好转，总库存有所降低，当天盘面大幅上涨，主要受有 机硅多晶硅上涨及情绪扰动影响。目前工业硅盘面主要受整体商品情绪以及政策端消息震荡运行。需关注后续是 否有相关产能退出政策，目前工业硅估值偏低，若有政策推动，盘面或有上涨空间。 单边：短期区间操作，枯水期合约可逢低做多 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场分析 2025-11-19，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8985元/吨，最后收于9390元/吨，较前一日 ...