Company Overview - Xiaocaiyuan is a leading provider of convenient Chinese dining in China, established in 2013, focusing on healthy and affordable dishes with quality service [1] - The company successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange by the end of 2024, with a strong internal training system and experienced management team [1] Industry Insights - The mass convenience Chinese dining sector is expected to grow faster than the overall Chinese dining market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1% from 2023 to 2028, compared to 8.7% for the overall Chinese dining market [2] - The overall Chinese dining market grew from 4,271.6 billion yuan in 2018 to 5,289.0 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 4.4% [2] - In 2023, the penetration rate of chain restaurants in the Chinese dining market was 21.5%, significantly lower than the United States (60.1%) and Japan (52.4%) [2] Brand Strength - Xiaocaiyuan holds the largest market share in the mass convenience Chinese dining market in 2023, with a focus on fresh, healthy dishes and a seasonal menu [3] - The average customer spending in Xiaocaiyuan's dine-in service was 57.1 yuan in the first half of 2025 [3] Channel Strategy - The majority of Xiaocaiyuan's revenue comes from dine-in services, with a focus on the Yangtze River Delta region, where it has significant room for expansion [4] - As of the first half of 2025, Xiaocaiyuan operated 672 stores, with dine-in revenue accounting for 61% and takeout for 39% [4] - The company has a low store density compared to competitors like McDonald's, indicating substantial growth potential [4] Supply Chain and Talent Management - Xiaocaiyuan has established a comprehensive supply chain system, including a central kitchen and a fleet of over 200 vehicles for efficient logistics [5] - The company emphasizes internal talent development, with 90.4% of current shareholders having risen from grassroots positions within the company [5] Financial Projections - Xiaocaiyuan is expected to achieve revenues of 5.557 billion yuan, 6.514 billion yuan, and 7.445 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 6.66%, 17.22%, and 14.31% [6] - The projected net profit for the same years is 749 million yuan, 892 million yuan, and 1.011 billion yuan, with growth rates of 29.02%, 19.01%, and 13.43% [6] - The company is rated as a "buy" based on its position as a leader in the mass convenience Chinese dining sector and its potential for future growth [6]

Industry Overview - The mass convenience Chinese dining sector is expected to grow faster than the overall Chinese dining market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1% from 2023 to 2028, compared to the overall Chinese dining market's 8.7% [1] - The overall scale of the Chinese dining market grew from 42,716 billion yuan in 2018 to 52,890 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 4.4% [1] - In 2023, the mass convenience Chinese dining market accounted for 88.7% of the Chinese dining market, with a customer price below 100 yuan [1] - The penetration rate of chain restaurants in the Chinese dining market was 21.5% in 2023, significantly lower than the United States (60.1%) and Japan (52.4%) [1] Company Overview - Xiaocaiyuan (00999) is a leading player in the mass convenience Chinese dining market, holding the largest market share in 2023 [2] - The company focuses on fresh, healthy dishes with a seasonal menu, catering to various consumer tastes [2] - As of the first half of 2025, Xiaocaiyuan had 672 directly operated stores, primarily concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region [3] - The average revenue per store is expected to exceed 8 million yuan, with an overall operating profit margin approaching 20% [3] Revenue and Growth Potential - Xiaocaiyuan's revenue is primarily derived from dine-in services, which accounted for 61% of total revenue, while takeout services contributed 39% [3] - The company has a significant expansion opportunity, with a current store density of 3.1 stores per million people in Jiangsu province, compared to McDonald's 7.13 stores per million [3] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.557 billion yuan, 6.514 billion yuan, and 7.445 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.66%, 17.22%, and 14.31% [7] Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - Xiaocaiyuan has established a comprehensive supply chain system, including a central kitchen and a self-owned transportation fleet of over 200 vehicles [4] - The company leverages its supply chain to procure quality ingredients at favorable prices, enabling cost control and competitive pricing [4] - The average payback period for new stores is approximately 13.8 months, significantly shorter than the industry average of over 18 months [3] Talent Management - Xiaocaiyuan has a well-structured talent management and training process, with 90.4% of current shareholders having risen from grassroots employees [6] - The management team consists of key employees who are internally promoted, ensuring a strong understanding of the company's operations [6]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaocaiyuan (00999) is recognized as a leading player in the rapidly growing domestic convenient Chinese dining sector, emphasizing healthy and affordable meals since its establishment in 2013. The company successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange by the end of 2024 and has a strong management team with a mature internal training system, leading to an initial "Buy" rating from Huayuan Securities [1]. Industry Overview - The convenient Chinese dining sector is expected to grow faster than the overall Chinese dining market. The chain penetration rate in this sector is lower than the average for Chinese dining, indicating significant growth potential. The total revenue of the Chinese dining market increased from 42,716 billion to 52,890 billion from 2018 to 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4%. The Chinese dining market accounted for 77.1% of the total dining market in 2023. The convenient Chinese dining market, with an average spending of less than 100 yuan, represented 88.7% of the Chinese dining market in 2023, with a CAGR of 3.8% from 2018 to 2023. It is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% from 2023 to 2028, surpassing the overall Chinese dining market growth of 8.7%. The penetration rate of chain restaurants in the Chinese dining market was 21.5% in 2023, significantly lower than the 60.1% in the U.S. and 52.4% in Japan. In the convenient Chinese dining sector, the chain restaurant share was only 19.2%, expected to rise to 25.5% by 2028 [2]. Brand Strength - Xiaocaiyuan focuses on new Huizhou cuisine and held the largest market share in the convenient Chinese dining sector in 2023. The company offers freshly prepared, healthy dishes with a seasonal menu that caters to diverse consumer preferences. The average dining expenditure per customer in the first half of 2025 was 57.1 yuan, with Xiaocaiyuan holding a 0.2% market share in the convenient Chinese dining sector (spending between 50-100 yuan) [3]. Channel Strength - Xiaocaiyuan primarily generates revenue from dine-in services, with a focus on direct chain operations, mainly in the Yangtze River Delta region. As of the first half of 2025, the company operated 672 direct Xiaocaiyuan outlets, with dine-in revenue accounting for 61% and takeout for 39%. The takeout revenue has been increasing since 2021, becoming a key driver of revenue growth. The current store density is low, indicating significant expansion potential. In Jiangsu Province, the store density is 3.1 per million residents, compared to McDonald's 7.13 per million. If Xiaocaiyuan achieves half of McDonald's density, it could reach 3,769 stores. The average investment payback period for Xiaocaiyuan stores is approximately 13.8 months, shorter than the industry average of over 18 months. The company expects an average annual revenue of over 8 million yuan per store, with an operating profit margin close to 20% [4]. Supply Chain Capability - Xiaocaiyuan has established a comprehensive supply chain system, including a central kitchen and warehouse, supported by a self-owned transportation fleet of over 200 vehicles. This enables the company to procure quality ingredients at favorable prices and implement effective cost control strategies. The company is also enhancing its IT system to improve operational efficiency [5]. Talent Management - Xiaocaiyuan has a well-structured talent management and training process, with 90.4% of current shareholders having risen from grassroots employees. All regional managers and most store managers and head chefs are promoted from within, ensuring a motivated workforce [7]. Profit Forecast - Xiaocaiyuan is expected to achieve significant revenue growth due to its strong supply chain and standardized operations. The company forecasts revenues of 5.557 billion, 6.514 billion, and 7.445 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.66%, 17.22%, and 14.31%, respectively. The projected net profit for the same period is 749 million, 892 million, and 1.011 billion yuan, with growth rates of 29.02%, 19.01%, and 13.43%. The current price-to-earnings ratios are estimated at 14, 11, and 10 times, respectively, compared to a comparable company average of 32.60 times for 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][9][70]. Core Insights - The company, Xiaocaiyuan, is a leading player in the fast-growing casual Chinese dining sector, focusing on providing healthy and affordable meals since its establishment in 2013. It successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at the end of 2024 [5][15]. - The casual dining segment is expected to grow faster than the overall Chinese dining market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1% from 2023 to 2028, compared to 8.7% for the overall market [5][29]. - Xiaocaiyuan holds the largest market share in the casual dining segment, with a focus on fresh, seasonal dishes and a menu that caters to diverse consumer preferences [5][39]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of December 12, 2025, the closing price was HKD 9.59, with a market capitalization of HKD 11,287.43 million [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 55.57 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.66%. Net profit is expected to be RMB 7.49 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 29.02% [7][9][69]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in both dine-in and takeout revenue, with dine-in revenue growth rates of 8.34%, 17.01%, and 14.76% from 2025 to 2027 [10][68]. Business Model and Expansion Potential - Xiaocaiyuan operates a low-density store model, particularly in the Jiangsu province, where its store density is only 3.1 stores per million residents, compared to McDonald's 7.13 stores per million [5][53]. - The company has a short payback period for new stores, averaging 13.8 months, which is significantly lower than the industry average of over 18 months [5][57]. Supply Chain and Digital Capabilities - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain system, including a central kitchen and a fleet of over 200 vehicles for efficient logistics [8][59]. - Xiaocaiyuan is enhancing its digital capabilities to improve operational efficiency, including a member system and business intelligence analytics [8][61]. Talent Management - The company emphasizes internal talent development, with 90.4% of current shareholders having risen from grassroots positions within the company [8][64]. Competitive Positioning - Xiaocaiyuan's pricing strategy positions it as a value leader in the casual dining market, with an average customer spend of RMB 57.1 [5][39].

信达证券（601059）发布研报称，小菜园(00999)是大众便民中式餐饮领导者，致力于提供"好吃不 贵"的消费体验，契合当下消费者对于质价比的追求。公司处在快速拓店阶段，即使在同店销售下行(主 要是人均消费下行)的背景下，有望带动收入稳步增长。而公司完善的供应链体系及优化的单店模型有 望带来运营效率的提升。该行预计2025~2027年EPS为0.65/0.79/0.94元/股，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评 级，目标价为13.02港元。 信达证券主要观点如下： 公司介绍 公司是我国大众便民中式餐饮的领导者。以"小菜园"为主要品牌，致力于提供"好吃不贵"的就餐体验， 同时还拥有"菜手""观邸""复兴楼"等5个品牌。截至25年6月末，拥有672家"小菜园"门店。根据 Frost&Sullivan，按2023年的门店收入统计，"小菜园"在客单价50~100元的中国大众便民中式餐饮市场 的所有品牌中排名第一，市场份额0.2%。 门店快速扩张，单店模型优异，开店空间广阔 不断完善标准化的管理和运营模式，涵盖菜品标准化、服务标准化、供应链一体化、培训常态化、食品 安全及质量控制标准化和拓店标准化等各个方面，助力公司快速扩张和 ...

2023年开始，进入快速开店周期，每年拓店超过100家，根据公司官方公众号，截至2025年11月末，全 国直营门店（含待开业）816家。公司计划到2026年底"小菜园"门店达到约1000家。新开门店在现金流 层面表现优异，对于新开"小菜园"门店，首次收支平衡期一般为1~2个月；截至2024年8月末已经收回投 资的门店的平均投资回收期约为13.8个月。门店利润表端表现亦靓丽，21/22/23/24年前8个月门店OPM 为15.9%/14.2%/19.7%/17.8%，根据该行的假设和测算，门店OPM有望达到20%以上。 自建完善的"集中采购+中央厨房+全冷链仓储物流+数字化管理"供应链体系 智通财经APP获悉，信达证券发布研报称，小菜园(00999)是大众便民中式餐饮领导者，致力于提供"好 吃不贵"的消费体验，契合当下消费者对于质价比的追求。公司处在快速拓店阶段，即使在同店销售下 行（主要是人均消费下行）的背景下，有望带动收入稳步增长。而公司完善的供应链体系及优化的单店 模型有望带来运营效率的提升。该行预计2025~2027年EPS为0.65/0.79/0.94元/股，首次覆盖，给予"买 入"评级，目标价为13 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 13.02 HKD [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the mass-market Chinese dining sector, focusing on providing a "delicious and affordable" dining experience. It operates under the main brand "Xiao Cai Yuan" and has expanded to include five brands in total. As of June 2025, the company had 672 "Xiao Cai Yuan" stores, ranking first in market share within the 50-100 RMB price range for mass-market Chinese dining [5][18]. - The company is in a rapid expansion phase, with plans to reach approximately 1,000 stores by the end of 2026. The average payback period for new stores is about 13.8 months, significantly lower than the industry average of 18 months [5][15][43]. - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain system, including centralized procurement, a central kitchen, cold chain logistics, and digital management, which enhances operational efficiency and profitability [5][16][59]. Financial Performance - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4,549 million RMB in 2023 to 8,913 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.1% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 532 million RMB in 2023 to 1,111 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 19.6% [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 85% in 2023 to 33% in 2027, indicating strong profitability [4]. Business Analysis - The company has adopted a simplified menu strategy, offering 45-50 seasonal dishes that are freshly prepared in-store, ensuring quality and taste. The average customer spending is around 50-70 RMB, with recent adjustments lowering the average to 59 RMB in 2024 [26][31]. - The company has successfully integrated both dine-in and delivery services, with delivery revenue increasing from 15.5% in 2021 to 39.0% in the first half of 2025 [31][36]. Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from a well-established supply chain and standardized operations, which facilitate rapid store expansion and cost efficiency. The operating profit margin (OPM) for stores has shown promising trends, with expectations to exceed 20% [5][46]. - The company has a strong bargaining power due to its centralized procurement strategy, which has reduced the cost of raw materials and consumables from 34.5% in 2021 to 29.5% in the first half of 2025 [64]. Market Context - The mass-market Chinese dining sector is experiencing growth, outperforming the overall consumer market. The industry is adapting to changing consumer preferences, focusing on quality-price ratios and affordability [17][21]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing urbanization and changes in family structures, which are expected to drive demand for affordable dining options [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, setting a target price of HK$13.50 based on a current price of HK$9.83 [1]. Core Insights - Xiaocaiyuan International is positioned as a leader in the mass Chinese cuisine market, with a market share of 0.2% as of 2023, and aims to expand its store count significantly in the coming years [1][6]. - The mass Chinese cuisine market is projected to grow from RMB 3.6 trillion in 2023 to RMB 5.6 trillion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1%, outpacing the overall Chinese cuisine market growth of 8.7% during the same period [2][24]. - Xiaocaiyuan's revenue is expected to increase from RMB 5.21 billion in 2024 to RMB 9.43 billion by 2027, with net profit projected to rise from RMB 581 million to RMB 1.1 billion in the same timeframe [4][15]. Company Overview - Xiaocaiyuan was established in 2013 and has rapidly developed into a leading brand in the mass Chinese cuisine sector, with 673 stores across 14 provinces in China by the end of 2024 [1][6]. - The company focuses on a dual-driven model of "home-style flavor + high cost-performance," catering to diverse regional tastes with a seasonal menu of approximately 45-50 dishes [3][38]. - The company employs a standardized direct operation model, enhancing efficiency and quality control through a comprehensive supply chain system [3][48]. Financial Performance - Xiaocaiyuan's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 5.21 billion, reflecting a 14.5% year-on-year growth, with net profit expected to reach RMB 581 million, a 7% increase [4][15]. - The company has shown strong growth in its takeaway business, with revenue from this segment expected to grow by 34.4% year-on-year in 2024 [3][15]. - The operating cash flow is robust, with RMB 9.0 billion expected in 2024, indicating a healthy cash flow situation to support further expansion [22]. Market Dynamics - The mass Chinese cuisine market is benefiting from urbanization, changing family structures, and increasing demand for affordable dining options [2][29]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in lower-tier cities, where consumer demand for quality dining experiences is rising [29][33]. - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with Xiaocaiyuan holding the top position in the mass Chinese dining segment, which is characterized by low market concentration [45].

按2023年门店收入而言，"小菜园"在中国大众便民中式餐饮市场的所有品牌中排名第一。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 截至 2 024 年1 2 月5日 ，小菜园 在 中国14个省的146座城市 /县拥有 663家 直营 门店 ，其中 包括658家 " 小菜园 " 门店及5家其他子品牌门店 。其中， 2021年 至 2023年以及 今年前8个月 ，小菜园分别新开107家、48家、132 家 以及 109家门店。 根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料， 按 2023年门店收入而言，"小菜园"在中国大众便民中式餐饮市场的 所有品牌中排名第一 。 2021年至2023年、以及今年前8个月，"小菜园"门店堂食顾客人均消费额 分别为66.1元、65.8元、65.2元以及59.5元。 据IPO早知道消息，小菜园国际控股有限公司（以下简称"小菜园"）今起招股、至12月17日结束， 并计划于2024年12月20日正式以"0999"为股票代码在港交所主板挂牌上市。 小菜园计划在本次IPO中发行101,180,800股股份。其中，香港公开发售10,118,400股股份，国际 发售91, ...

按2023年门店收入而言，"小菜园"在中国大众便民中式餐饮市场的所有品牌中排名第一。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，小菜园国际控股有限公司（以下简称"小菜园"）日前已通过港交所聆讯并于 2024年12月4日披露通过聆讯后的资料集，即将在港交所主板挂牌上市，华泰国际和瑞银集团担任 联席保荐人。 2021年至2023年，小菜园门店层面经营利润率分别为15.9%、14.2%和19.7%，今年前8个月轻 微减少至17.8%。小菜园解释称，这主要是由于其对菜品价格的调整，以迎合消费者的喜好，并彰 显为客户带来高性价比体验的长期承诺。 成立于2013年的小菜园于当年在安徽开出第一家门店，后陆续拓展至江苏、上海、浙江、北京、湖 北、天津、广东、河北、河南、山东、陕西、江西等地区，除"小菜园"外另打造了"观邸"、"复兴 楼"、"菜手"等品牌。 截至 2 024 年 11 月 26 日 ，小菜园 在 中国14个省的146座城市 /县拥有 663家 直营 门店 ， 其中 包括658家 " 小菜园 " 门店及5家其他子品牌门店 。其中， 2021年 至 ...