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兴业王涵:大国复兴叙事推动A股价值重估新机遇
Core Viewpoint - The narrative of national rejuvenation, the rise of capital market status, and the enhancement of policy discourse power are collectively driving the A-share market towards a value reassessment opportunity [1]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - In 2026, China's economy is expected to show a "low first, high later" trend, with weaker performance in the first half due to the inertia of demand from the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan, followed by a recovery in investment in the second half [1]. - Consumer momentum in 2026 is anticipated to be stronger than in 2025, benefiting from policy support and the wealth effect from the financial market [1]. - External demand remains uncertain, largely dependent on the sustainability of the U.S. AI narrative [1]. Group 2: A-share Value Reassessment - The three solid pillars supporting the logic of A-share value reassessment are: 1. National rejuvenation narrative: The perception of Chinese enterprises' competitiveness has significantly improved compared to 2018 [2][3]. 2. Rise in capital market status: The importance of the capital market in macroeconomic regulation has been further elevated, leading to a systematic increase in overall valuation positioning [3]. 3. Enhanced policy discourse power: The ability to actively defend national interests has improved market risk appetite [3]. Group 3: Market Comparisons and Predictions - Key data indicates that the U.S. GDP accounts for 25% of the global total, with its stock market capitalization representing nearly 50%, while China's GDP accounts for 16% and the combined market capitalization of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is only 14%, highlighting clear reassessment potential for A-shares [3]. - Regarding the AI bubble in the U.S. stock market, it is characterized as a monopoly pricing bubble, with current valuations of AI giants based on a "shovel monopoly" logic, which is being challenged by the emergence of open-source models [3]. - A potential trigger for a U.S. stock market crash could be the realization that the Federal Reserve's ability to rescue the market is limited, especially if inflation rebounds and forces the Fed to pause interest rate cuts [3]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Confidence - 2026 is identified as a critical year for the A-share value reassessment, with the three pillars remaining solid, indicating that the reassessment process will not be altered by short-term fluctuations [4]. - Investors are encouraged to maintain confidence and seize long-term value opportunities [4].