格隆汇10月31日｜美国银行策略师哈特内特称，中国股票和黄金是对冲美股人工智能交易热潮的最佳工 具，这股热潮已将美股估值推升至高位。标普500指数目前的远期市盈率为23倍，远高于过去20年的16 倍平均水平。所谓的"七巨头"科技集团占据了美国基准指数权重的三分之一以上，这类股票估值更高， 远期市盈率达到31倍。哈特内特写道："AI股的领导地位短期内不会动摇，而我们认为黄金和中国股票 是对冲美股AI繁荣/泡沫的最佳选择。" ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has shown weak performance recently, but certain sectors have experienced significant gains, particularly in the new consumption sector, with companies like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold exceeding market expectations and rising nearly 9% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index has demonstrated resilience, rising despite the decline in US stocks, indicating strong market sentiment in China [1] Group 2: Company Earnings - Pop Mart reported a remarkable revenue increase of 204.4% year-on-year, reaching 13.876 billion RMB, with plush product revenue surging by 1276.2%, now accounting for 44.2% of total revenue [5][6] - The net profit of Pop Mart increased nearly 400%, with significant contributions from the Americas market, which saw revenue soar over 11 times [5][6] - The performance of companies in the Apple supply chain, such as Sunny Optical and Q Technology, has been strong, particularly with Sunny Optical exceeding market expectations [2] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Developments - Arm Holdings has recruited key personnel from Amazon, indicating a strategic shift towards developing complete chip systems, which could challenge Nvidia's dominance in the AI chip market [3][4] - The semiconductor market is witnessing a resurgence, with companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC showing positive trends, driven by new product launches and market speculation [2] Group 4: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs highlights that the core issue for the US stock market in the coming months will be the balance between recession risks and interest rate cuts, with a significant observation period ahead [7] - The market is pricing in a high likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could impact both the stock and bond markets [7]