谈及A股价值重估，黄付生系统阐述了市场三阶段演进逻辑。他指出，2023—2024年，当中国债券收益 率快速下行时，是红利股的牛市，这实际上是价值重估的第一阶段；自"9·24"之后到2025年，市场进入 成长股大行情，这是中国科技产业的再定价；展望2026年，市场将延伸至制造业盈利回升阶段——"反 内卷"政策推动工业品价格修复，消费品进入"以价换量"去库存阶段，后周期产业景气度上行将支撑戴 维斯双击。 21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 广州报道 "国内市场正经历三阶段演进：债市收益率下行推动红利股价值重估；DeepSeek时刻引爆科技成长股行 情；2026年将延伸至制造业盈利回升。"在南方财经论坛2025年会证券业分论坛上，中邮证券副总裁、 首席经济学家黄付生如是表示。 12月5日至6日，以"共识的力量——创新涌动，中国资产重估"为主题的南方财经论坛2025年会在广州召 开。作为圆桌对话的重要嘉宾，黄付生围绕"十五五"开局之年的经济与市场前景分享了独到见解。 黄付生首先分析了2026年全球经济与中国经济走势。他认为，全球层面，伴随2026年一季度美联储重启 量化宽松（QE）及欧洲政策转向，欧美经济有望实现软着陆。 ...

21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 广州报道 "科技创新必须扎根产业土壤，真正实现从'空中楼阁'到'叫好又 叫座'的跨越，才能驱动经济的坚实增长。"在2025年证券业年会上，国联民生证券首席经济学家陶川如 是表示。 12月5日至6日，以"共识的力量——创新涌动，中国资产重估"为主题的南方财经论坛2025年会在广州召 开。作为圆桌对话的重要嘉宾，陶川围绕"十五五"开局之年的经济与市场前景分享了独到见解。 陶川首先分析了2026年全球经济与中国经济走势。他认为，全球将进入"潮水退去"阶段：俄乌冲突趋近 终局，美联储新主席明确降息路径，贸易政策不确定性显著降低。国内经济则聚焦三大动能：向产业要 动能（现代化产业体系建设）、向科技要生产力（科技成果转化）、向民生消费要增速（居民消费率提 升）。"这三点切合到一起，对于2026年资本市场可以有更多期待，所谓的价值重估也打开了更多空 间。"陶川强调。 谈及A股价值重估，陶川系统阐述了2026年重估动能的三大来源。在产业动能方面，他指出现代化产业 体系落地将带动PPI回升，推动制造业盈利修复；在科技落地方面，他特别强调要关注"叫好又叫座"的 科技应用，避免"空中楼阁"式创新；在 ...

"若2026年'反内卷'政策成功推动再通胀，参照2016—2017年供给侧结构性改革的成功逻辑，企业盈利 有望快速修复，从而为市场注入强劲动力。"在南方财经论坛2025年证券业年会上，方正证券首席经济 学家燕翔如是表示。 燕翔首先对2026年经济走势提出"三维度"分析框架：一是"增长稳"，GDP增速将保持在稳定区间；二 是"科技强"，"三新"经济占比持续提升，汽车、AI等产业在全球市场的竞争力进一步凸显；三是"内需 进"，消费与投资将实现边际改善，内需将成为核心驱动力，尤其在2025年低位基础上实现显著修复。 针对美股AI泡沫问题，燕翔分析指出标普500指数估值隐患显著，PE/PB均处于历史99分位数，整体估 值高企。但他认为调整性质可能相对温和："核心科技企业估值虽然偏高，但与2000年互联网泡沫期相 比并未达到极端水平，即便回调也难以复制当年的冲击强度。" 同时，他警示需警惕"放水依赖症"的反噬风险，"金融危机后碰到的问题都用放水方式解决，这种思路 可能在未来引发反噬"。 在风险预警方面，燕翔提出了"政策预期反转风险"。他解释道："我们一直在假设，一边是美国降息， 一边是中国的PPI回升。万一我们的PPI ...

21世纪经济报道记者崔文静广州报道 "大国复兴叙事、资本市场地位跃升与政策话语权增强，正共同推动A股迎来价值重估机遇。"在南方财 经论坛2025年会证券业分论坛上，兴业证券首席经济学家、经济与金融研究院联席院长王涵如是表示。 12月5日至6日，以"共识的力量——创新涌动，中国资产重估"为主题的南方财经论坛2025年会在广州召 开。作为圆桌对话的重要嘉宾，王涵围绕"十五五"开局之年的经济与市场前景分享了独到见解。 王涵首先分析了2026年经济走势。他认为，2026年中国经济将呈现"前低后高"态势：上半年受"十四 五"收官阶段需求惯性影响可能偏弱，下半年投资回暖将形成支撑。消费动力将强于2025年，既受益于 政策加力，也源于金融市场财富效应。但外需不确定性仍存，关键取决于美国AI叙事的可持续性。 谈及A股价值重估，王涵系统阐述了牛市底层逻辑稳固的三大支柱。 第一是大国复兴叙事：与2018年相比，当前全球竞争格局下中国企业竞争力认知显著提升； 第二是资本市场地位跃升：从党的二十届四中全会公报到中央金融委政策导向，资本市场在宏观调控框 架中的重要性进一步提升，整体估值定位获得系统性提升； 第三是政策话语权增强：主动捍 ...

21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 广州报道 "'十五五'规划建议将科技创新与产业体系关系重新定位——技术必须扎根产业土壤，方能避免沦为资 本泡沫。"在南方财经论坛2025年会证券业分论坛上，中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长、中国 银河国际副行政总裁章俊如是表示。 12月5日至6日，以"共识的力量——创新涌动，中国资产重估"为主题的南方财经论坛2025年会在广州召 开。本届论坛由南方财经全媒体集团主办，吸引了众多金融界、学术界和企业界代表参与。 在证券业分论坛上，章俊主持了一场汇聚国内知名券商首席经济学家的圆桌对话，围绕"十五五"开局之 年的经济走势、资本市场前景等关键议题展开深入探讨。 内需驱动与再平衡：2026年全球经济与中国经济发展新图景 章俊在开场中指出，当前正值"十五五"规划建议稿发布之际，2026年作为规划开局之年，其经济走向备 受关注。他引导与会首席经济学家聚焦核心问题：能否就2026年全球经济与中国经济走势达成初步共 识？ 经过深入讨论，与会专家形成三点核心共识： 共识一：内需驱动成为增长主引擎。与会专家一致认为，消费与投资将成为2026年中国经济增长的主要 驱动力。在"十五五"规划建议强调提 ...

Core Viewpoint - AI concept stocks are experiencing a decline due to increasing concerns over high valuations, influenced by a sell-off in U.S. tech stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, Kingsoft (03888) fell by 4.37% to HKD 31.94, Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) dropped by 4.09% to HKD 72.7, and Alibaba-W (09988) decreased by 2.58% to HKD 155.1 [1] - The market is reacting to a significant short position taken by investor Michael Burry against Nvidia and Palantir, with the nominal value of put options exceeding USD 1 billion, representing 80% of his portfolio [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Dongwu Securities highlighted ongoing concerns in overseas markets regarding a potential AI bubble in U.S. stocks, alongside mixed earnings reports from major tech companies [1] - Google’s cloud computing and search business exceeded expectations, supporting the notion that AI tools are enhancing advertising revenue for tech giants [1] - In contrast, Meta's revenue beat expectations but raised concerns about future profits due to accelerated capital expenditures, leading to a cautious outlook among investors regarding tech stocks in Hong Kong [1] - Despite the influence of U.S. tech leaders on Hong Kong's AI tech trading pace, Dongwu Securities believes that current valuations in the Hong Kong tech sector are attractive, predicting a marginal recovery in EPS for the first quarter of next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The AI concept stocks are experiencing a decline due to increasing concerns over high valuations, exacerbated by a sell-off in U.S. tech stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Kingsoft (03888) fell by 4.37%, trading at HKD 31.94 [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) decreased by 4.09%, trading at HKD 72.7 [1] - Alibaba-W (09988) dropped by 2.58%, trading at HKD 155.1 [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investor Michael Burry is heavily shorting Nvidia and Palantir, with put options valued over USD 1 billion, representing 80% of his portfolio [1] - Burry previously issued a subtle warning about market euphoria to retail investors [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Dongwu Securities noted ongoing concerns about an AI bubble in the U.S. market, alongside mixed earnings reports from tech giants [1] - Google exceeded expectations in cloud computing and search, supporting the notion that AI tools are enhancing advertising revenue for tech giants [1] - In contrast, Meta's revenue beat expectations but raised concerns about future profits due to accelerated capital expenditures [1] - Investors in Hong Kong are adopting a cautious stance towards technology stocks, although the long-term outlook for Hong Kong tech valuations appears attractive [1] - The firm anticipates a marginal recovery in Hong Kong's EPS in Q1 of next year as the competitive landscape among tech leaders approaches its peak [1]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Bank strategist Hartnett suggests that Chinese stocks and gold are the best hedges against the surge in U.S. stock valuations driven by artificial intelligence trading, which has pushed the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio to 23 times, significantly above the 20-year average of 16 times [1] Group 1 - The S&P 500 index's current forward P/E ratio is 23 times, compared to a historical average of 16 times over the past 20 years [1] - The so-called "seven giants" tech group accounts for over one-third of the weight in the U.S. benchmark index, with these stocks having a higher valuation at a forward P/E ratio of 31 times [1] - Hartnett states that the leadership of AI stocks is unlikely to change in the short term, and believes that gold and Chinese stocks are the best options to hedge against the U.S. AI boom/bubble [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has shown weak performance recently, but certain sectors have experienced significant gains, particularly in the new consumption sector, with companies like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold exceeding market expectations and rising nearly 9% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index has demonstrated resilience, rising despite the decline in US stocks, indicating strong market sentiment in China [1] Group 2: Company Earnings - Pop Mart reported a remarkable revenue increase of 204.4% year-on-year, reaching 13.876 billion RMB, with plush product revenue surging by 1276.2%, now accounting for 44.2% of total revenue [5][6] - The net profit of Pop Mart increased nearly 400%, with significant contributions from the Americas market, which saw revenue soar over 11 times [5][6] - The performance of companies in the Apple supply chain, such as Sunny Optical and Q Technology, has been strong, particularly with Sunny Optical exceeding market expectations [2] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Developments - Arm Holdings has recruited key personnel from Amazon, indicating a strategic shift towards developing complete chip systems, which could challenge Nvidia's dominance in the AI chip market [3][4] - The semiconductor market is witnessing a resurgence, with companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC showing positive trends, driven by new product launches and market speculation [2] Group 4: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs highlights that the core issue for the US stock market in the coming months will be the balance between recession risks and interest rate cuts, with a significant observation period ahead [7] - The market is pricing in a high likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could impact both the stock and bond markets [7]