大小盘风格轮动月度策略

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国泰海通|金工:综合量化模型和日历效应,7月大概率小市值风格占优、成长风格占优
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-07-03 10:14
Group 1: Monthly Strategy Insights - The report indicates that in July, small-cap stocks are likely to outperform, supported by a monthly quantitative model signal of 0.83, suggesting an overweight position in small-cap stocks [1] - The long-term outlook favors small-cap stocks over the next one to two years, with the current market capitalization factor valuation spread at 1.15, which is lower than historical highs of 1.7 to 2.6 [1] - The report acknowledges a previous misjudgment in June regarding style allocation, where the expected excess return was 0%, and emphasizes a strategy of favoring small-cap stocks unless strong signals for large-cap stocks are present [1] Group 2: Value and Growth Style Rotation - The monthly quantitative model signal for value and growth style rotation is 0.33, indicating a preference for growth stocks in July, which historically tend to outperform during this month [2] - Year-to-date, the value-growth style rotation strategy has achieved an excess return of 6.2% compared to an equal-weight benchmark [2] Group 3: Factor Performance Tracking - Among eight major factors, volatility and value factors showed positive returns this month, while large-cap and liquidity factors exhibited negative returns [2] - Year-to-date, volatility and momentum factors have also shown positive returns, with large-cap and liquidity factors remaining negative [2] - In the analysis of 24 style factors, beta, industry momentum, and short-term reversal factors performed well this month, while large-cap, mid-cap, and liquidity factors did not [2]