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中邮因子周报:成长风格主导,流动性占优-20250825
China Post Securities· 2025-08-25 11:47
证券研究报告:金融工程报告 发布时间:2025-08-25 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:金晓杰 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100010 Email:jinxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《基本面因子表现不佳,小盘风格明显 — — 中 邮 因 子 周 报 20250803 》 - 2025.08.04 《成长风格显著,中盘表现占优—— 中邮因子周报 20250817》 - 2025.08.18 《OpenAI 发布 GPT-5,Claude Opus 4.1 上线——AI 动态汇总 20250811》 - 2025.08.12 盘 股 指 数 周 报 20250720 》 - 2025.07.21 《大金融表现居前助指数突破,GRU 行 业轮动调入非银行金融——行业轮动 周报 20250713》 - 2025.07.14 《低估值高盈利,基本面表现占优—— 中 邮 因 子 周 报 20250706 》 - 2025.07.07 《基于宏观经济状态划分的 BL 模型与 ET ...
300增强ETF(561300)上一交易日资金净流入超1.6亿,市场关注估值扩张与成长风格占优
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-25 07:00
东吴证券指出,技术择时模型显示,市场整体情绪较为亢奋,可能出现波动加剧的情况,但中期趋势仍 然良好,大趋势保持健康上涨。风格指数方面,成长风格表现突出,大盘成长指数涨幅达4.77%,而大 盘价值指数涨幅仅为1.56%,显示市场偏好成长型资产。行业层面,通信、电子等科技行业领涨,涨幅 分别达10.84%和8.95%,而房地产、煤炭等传统行业表现较弱。当前市场环境与2019-2020年高景气度投 资盛行的牛市类似,结构性行情将持续涌现,建议关注成长风格配置。 300增强ETF(561300)不仅紧跟沪深300指数,还叠加了量化策略,试图在优质beta的基础上追求超额 收益。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰沪深300增强策略ETF发起联接A(021847),国泰沪深300增强策略 ETF发起联接C(021848)。 注:如提及个股仅供参考,不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考,不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动,不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考,不 构成任何投资建议,也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品,请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险,投资 ...
W122市场观察:盈利质量交易活跃度有所回暖
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-24 23:30
丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 盈利质量交易活跃度有所回暖——W122 市场 观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周市场继续放量,上证指数点位触及 3800,成长板块表现活跃,一级行业中电子拥挤度分位 显著提升,微盘指数拥挤度继续回落;基金重仓 50 领涨机构重仓系列;行业板块内 TMT 强势 反弹,板块内龙头涨势优于红利。风格跟踪,成长风格优势持续,"成长+"均表现不俗。主题 行情中,专精特新精选领涨,央国企高质量发展周度表现亦较佳。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC:S0490518120005 SFC:BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 盈利质量交易活跃度有所回暖 2] ——W122 市场 观察 [Table_Summary2] 度量市场情绪:电子拥挤度分位显著抬升,微盘拥挤度继续回落 机构赚钱效应:基金重仓 50 领涨机构重仓 行业板块:TMT 反弹持续,板块内龙头涨势优于红利 风格跟踪:成长风格优势持续,"成长+"均表现不 ...
这轮牛市跟哪一轮比较像?|投资小知识
银行螺丝钉· 2025-08-24 13:53
文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) ——丁宁) T'J·四、 M AVVI日JXノ——JIXO 当时对杠杆投资、场外配资等管控较松, 带动市场出现一波杠杆牛。 A股在几个月时间里,从5星一口气涨到1星 泡沫估值。当时中证全指,从2000多点, 最高冲到8000多点。 同时,在2015年中小盘、成长风格大涨的 时候,价值风格相对低迷,跑输市场。 不过,因为市场太疯狂,2015年下半年, A股整体腰斩下跌。估值也快速回落到4点 几星。 (4) 2016年 随着2014年推出的一篮子刺激政策逐渐落 地,A股上市公司基本面逐渐复苏。 2014-2015年上涨比较少的价值股、消费 股,逐渐发力上涨。 2016-2017年出现了一轮基本面复苏,带 来的价值股慢牛行情。红利、价值、低波 动,以及消费等行业,逐渐上涨,在2017 年底,超过2015年牛市最高位水平。 而中小盘、成长股,因为2015年涨的实在 太多,2015-2017年整体下跌。 2024年,跟2013-2014年比较相似。 · 2023-2024年,也是基本面低迷,上市公 司盈利整体下降。 ·2024年9月,随着美联储首次降息,咱们 也推出了一篮子的降息 ...
金融工程周报:超预期偏鸽,利好港股核心资产-20250824
Huaxin Securities· 2025-08-24 07:30
超预期偏鸽,利好港股核心资产 分析师:吕思江 S1050522030001 lvsj@cfsc.com.cn 分析师:马晨 S1050522050001 machen@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 投资要点 ▌本周建议一览 核心观点: 中国资产流动性牛市延续,港股受外盘和美元影响一度落 后,核心大盘股滞涨。周五鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的 讲话超预期偏鸽,我们认为影响港股相对收益的最后因素 消除,积极做多调整充分的港股核心资产。看好的板块主 要是港股非银、汽车、互联网平台、消费、有色金属、物 业地产。在风格上偏向中大盘成长股。 在子策略中,风格轮动策略全线新高:我们在六七月集中 仓位于创业板和小盘 2000 指数,收到良好效果。随着权益 行情继续自我强化,以及预计量化产品短期逆风,我们保 持 成 长 风 格 暴 露,并 将 市 值 风 格 调整为 中 大 盘 的 沪深 300、中证 500。 2025 年 08 月 24 日 九月降息对风险资产情绪形成普遍的提振,但也不宜过度 乐观:降息可以理解为继续强化 Goldilocks 和经济温和复 苏-再通胀逻辑,也可以理解为提前应对劳动力市场走弱- 计价衰退。在 ...
这轮牛市,跟历史上哪一轮比较像?|第401期直播回放
银行螺丝钉· 2025-08-22 13:55
Group 1 - The overall A-share market has risen since the beginning of 2024, with growth style performing relatively strong while value style has been weaker [3][4] - From early 2024 to August 21, 2025, the CSI All Share Index saw a maximum increase of 56.98%, while the CSI 300 Value Index had a maximum increase of 45.13%, and the ChiNext Index reached a maximum increase of 82.16% [4] - The current market uptrend is similar to the period from 2013 to 2017 [6] Group 2 - Between 2012 and 2014, A-shares experienced a bear market with a maximum drawdown of 39.24% due to poor fundamentals and declining corporate profits [7] - In the second half of 2014, financial stocks such as securities and insurance surged significantly, with the Securities Industry Total Return Index rising by 206.91% from July 1 to the end of 2014 [9] - In the first half of 2015, small-cap and growth styles saw substantial gains, with the CSI All Share Index rising from over 2000 points to over 8000 points [10][11] Group 3 - The second half of 2015 saw a significant market decline, with valuations quickly dropping to around 4 stars [16] - From 2015 to the end of 2018, the A-share market experienced a maximum drawdown of 55.78%, with small-cap stocks and growth stocks facing even larger declines [20] - The period from 2016 to 2017 saw a recovery in value and consumer stocks, leading to a slow bull market [21] Group 4 - The current market phase resembles the 2015-2016 period, with stimulus policies beginning to take effect and corporate fundamentals starting to recover [35] - If corporate fundamentals continue to improve, there is potential for further market growth, similar to past economic recovery phases [36] - The current market is rated at around 4 stars, indicating it is relatively inexpensive and still offers opportunities for stock asset allocation [37][40] Group 5 - The current bull market differs from the 2014-2015 bull market in that there is stricter control over leveraged investments and the real estate sector remains in a bear market [32][33] - The main drivers of the recent market uptrend have been financial stocks, with the Securities Industry Total Return Index achieving a maximum increase of 80.43% from June 3, 2024, to the end of 2024 [28] - By 2025, small-cap and technology stocks are expected to take over as the main growth drivers, while value and consumer stocks may remain relatively subdued [29]
科创创业ETF嘉实(588400)上涨4.02%,成分股盛美上海20cm涨停,机构:成长风格相对占优
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 03:39
消息面上,8月15日国家统计局数据显示7月高技术制造业增加值同比增长9.3%,集成电路制造增长26.9%,印证硬科技产业链景气度;同期美国云厂商上调 资本开支指引,谷歌2025年资本开支增至850亿美元,Meta指引2026年维持高投入,带动算力需求预期升温。 截至2025年8月22日 11:03,中证科创创业50指数强势上涨3.95%,成分股盛美上海20cm涨停,海光信息上涨17.08%,寒武纪上涨11.29%,中芯国际、润泽科 技等个股跟涨。科创创业ETF嘉实(588400)上涨4.02%。 流动性方面,科创创业ETF嘉实盘中换手3.13%,成交5586.96万元。拉长时间看,截至8月21日,科创创业ETF嘉实近1周日均成交4669.44万元。规模方面, 科创创业ETF嘉实最新规模达17.41亿元。 从收益能力看,截至2025年8月21日,科创创业ETF嘉实自成立以来,最高单月回报为29.42%,最长连涨月数为3个月,最长连涨涨幅为34.92%,上涨月份平 均收益率为5.69%。截至2025年8月21日,科创创业ETF嘉实近3个月超越基准年化收益为4.78%。 科创创业ETF嘉实(588400)紧密跟踪中 ...
四连跌!
中国基金报· 2025-08-19 10:23
Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index experienced a decline for four consecutive days, closing down 0.21% at 25,122.9 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.67% to 5,542.03 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.30% to 9,006.23 points [2][3] - The total market turnover was HKD 278.2 billion, showing a decrease compared to the previous trading day, with net inflow from southbound funds amounting to HKD 18.573 billion [3] Stock Performance - Among the constituents of the Hang Seng Index, Zhongsheng Holdings surged by 8.29%, China Resources Beer rose by 6.24%, and Hansoh Pharmaceutical increased by 4.75%. Conversely, China Biologic Products fell by 6.57%, WuXi AppTec dropped by 5.16%, and BYD Electronic declined by 4.67% [4] - In the Hang Seng Technology Index, Tongcheng Travel rose by 7.43%, Horizon Robotics increased by 2.07%, and Midea Group gained 2.04%. However, SMIC saw a decline of 3.38% [4] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks continued to decline, with Hongguang Semiconductor down 2.99%, SMIC down 3.38%, Huahong Semiconductor down 3.12%, Fudan Semiconductor down 1.83%, and Jingmen Semiconductor down 2.02% [6] - Huahong Semiconductor announced plans to acquire Shanghai Huali Microelectronics to resolve competition issues related to its IPO commitments, indicating strategic moves within the semiconductor industry [8] Company Earnings - Ping An Good Doctor reported a 136.8% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching RMB 2.5 billion, a 19.5% increase. The number of paying users for its financial client and enterprise client segments grew significantly [9][11] A-Share Market Insights - UBS analyst Meng Lei noted that the leverage in the A-share market is significantly lower than the mid-2015 levels, despite an increase in financing balance. The number of new investors in July was approximately 1.11 million, which is much lower than the 3.8 million in October of the previous year [12] Employment Data - The unemployment rate in Hong Kong slightly increased from 3.5% to 3.7% between April-June and May-July 2025, although the total number of employed individuals rose. The increase in unemployment is partly attributed to new graduates entering the labor market [14][15]
基金回本了!但机会才刚刚开始……
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 16:28
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant redemption wave of 3 trillion yuan in funds, despite the average returns of new funds from 2019-2021 finally turning positive [1][4] - Historical data indicates that after funds return to a net value of 1 yuan, redemption pressure increases sharply, with a median redemption rate of -6.9% in the current quarter and -11.9% in the following quarter [4][2] - The sectors experiencing the most significant net redemptions include new energy (-7.3%), pharmaceuticals (-19%), and liquor (-13.4%), which were popular during the 2019-2021 bull market [4][6] Group 2 - The current net inflow of funds is primarily directed towards emerging growth sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industry, while significant redemption pressure is observed in new energy, liquor, and pharmaceuticals [6][10] - Funds that showed a significant net subscription in Q2 had a median return of 16.8%, compared to only 3.7% for those with significant net redemptions, indicating a trend of investors favoring stronger performing assets [10][28] - The long-term flow of redeemed funds is likely to return to financial assets rather than cash or real estate, as cash yields are low and real estate markets face inventory issues [11][12] Group 3 - The article suggests that the market's style will be influenced by the channels through which new capital enters, with a potential focus on small-cap growth if liquidity remains abundant [15][16] - Expectations of a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could further enhance domestic monetary easing, increasing liquidity in the market [17][18] - If inflation stabilizes, both value and growth styles may benefit, with recent positive changes in M1 growth indicating potential for corporate earnings recovery [20][21] Group 4 - If risk appetite remains low among residents, insurance products may become the preferred alternative, favoring value styles and leading to increased new premiums [23][24] - Conversely, if the index rises rapidly, public funds may become the optimal alternative, favoring growth styles, as evidenced by the significant increase in new fund issuance in recent months [27][28] - The article concludes that the current market dynamics may lead to a consumption bull market similar to 2019, but with a focus on AI and dividend stocks [29]
国泰海通|金工:量化风格轮动模型介绍
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-08-18 13:56
Group 1: Size Rotation Model - The core viewpoint indicates that A-shares experience a rotation between large-cap and small-cap stocks approximately every few years, with small-cap styles dominating in months 2, 3, 5, and 8, while large-cap styles prevail in months 1, 4, and 12 [1] - The size rotation model is tested across six dimensions: macroeconomic factors, valuation, fundamentals, capital flow, sentiment, and volume-price analysis, yielding an annualized excess return of 17.45% during the backtest period from December 2013 to September 2024 compared to benchmarks like CSI 300 and CSI 2000 Equal Weight [1] - The latest quantitative model signal as of the end of July is 0.5, suggesting a continued preference for small-cap stocks, with historical data indicating that small-cap stocks slightly outperform in August, recommending an overweight position in small-cap for that month [1] Group 2: Value-Growth Rotation Model - The core viewpoint highlights that the value-growth rotation in A-shares is frequent and exhibits certain monthly effects, with the monthly model yielding an annualized excess return of 8.8% relative to benchmarks like the National Index Growth and National Index Value Equal Weight [2] - A weekly model constructed from deep learning factors, momentum factors, and crowding factors from a pure volume-price perspective shows an annualized excess return of 7.19% [2] - The latest monthly quantitative model signal as of the end of July is -0.33, indicating a shift towards value style, with historical data suggesting that value stocks tend to outperform in August, recommending an overweight position in value stocks for that month [2]