大类资产价格
Search documents
美国政府停摆破纪录,大类资产价格回落
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 12:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From November 3rd to November 7th, due to the U.S. federal government shutdown exceeding the historical record and the deadlock in the U.S. Supreme Court tariff hearing, the U.S. dollar index declined weekly. Overall, stocks, bonds, and commodities all fell to varying degrees, with bonds > commodities > stocks in terms of performance when priced in U.S. dollars [3][6]. - During the same period in China, the stock market rose while the bond market and commodities declined. With the 10 - year RatingDog manufacturing PMI at 50.6% and the service PMI at 52.6% in October, exports turned negative year - on - year, import growth slowed, the decline in PPI narrowed, and CPI turned positive year - on - year. Overall, stocks > bonds > commodities [3]. - As the U.S. government shutdown nears its end and key data is expected to be released, market uncertainty may decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment changes on the prices of major asset classes [3][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market - From November 3rd to November 7th, due to increased market risk - aversion, most major global stock markets fell. U.S. stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets were slightly more resilient than developed markets. The VIX index rose weekly [8]. - The MSCI Asia - Pacific region fell 1.28% in the past week, the MSCI U.S. fell 1.71%, and the CI Europe fell 0.91% [8][11][14]. 3.1.2 Global Bond Market - The yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond remained at 4.11% the same as last week. The bond market declined weekly, with government bonds > credit bonds > high - yield bonds globally [12]. - The global bond index fell 0.06% in the past week, the global government bond index fell 0.05%, and the global credit bond index fell 0.13% [12]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The U.S. dollar index declined weekly by 0.18%. Although the U.S. ADP employment in October was better than expected, most major non - U.S. currencies against the U.S. dollar declined, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range [13]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market - International oil prices declined weekly due to supply pressure and the easing of short - term Russian oil sanction risks. Precious metal prices continued to fluctuate at high levels, and most major agricultural and non - ferrous metal prices fell [17]. - The RJ/CRB commodity price index fell 0.54% in the past week, and the S&P GSCI commodity total return index also fell 0.54% [18]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market - The A - share market sentiment was stable, and most major broad - based indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. The BeiZheng 50 performed poorly, and sectors such as new energy and steel led the gains, while pharmaceuticals and computers performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.08% weekly [20]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market - From November 3rd to November 7th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan. The money market remained generally loose, and the bond market oscillated weakly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [23]. - The ChinaBond Total Wealth (Aggregate) Index fell 0.07% in the past week, and the ChinaBond Corporate Bond Total Wealth (Aggregate) Index rose 0.07% [24]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, oils and fats led the gains, while the black metal sector performed poorly [24]. - The Nanhua Commodity Index fell 0.47% in the past week, and the Nanhua Black Metal Index fell 2.62% [25]. 3.3 Outlook for Major Asset Prices - As the U.S. government shutdown nears its end and key data is expected to be released, market uncertainty may decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment changes on major asset prices [27].