来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属普涨，仅沪锌唯一下跌，跌幅达0.22%。沪铅及沪锡一同涨逾1%，沪铅涨 1.09%，沪锡涨1.53%，其余金属涨幅均在1%以内。氧化铝主连跌0.29%，铸造铝主连涨0.1%。 此外，碳酸锂主连跌0.62%，多晶硅主连涨0.66%，工业硅主连涨0.05%。欧线集运主连大涨6.74%报 1471.9。 黑色系方面涨跌互现，不锈钢跌0.32%，铁矿跌0.19%。螺纹涨0.71%，热卷涨0.27%。双焦方面，焦煤 跌0.79%，焦炭跌1.99%。 外盘方面，截至15:06分，外盘基本金属集体上涨，伦锡以1.73%的涨幅领涨，其余金属涨幅均在1%以 内。 贵金属方面，截至15:06分，COMEX黄金涨0.45%，COMEX白银涨1.95%，盘中最高冲至54.65美元/盎 司，续刷其上市以来的历史新高。国内方面，沪金涨0.76%，沪银涨3.21%，沪银盘中最高触及12755元/ 千克，四连涨后同样续刷其上市以来的历史新高。 截至今日15:06分行情 【北京：重点发展AI电视、AI手机、AI眼镜等新型智能终端产品和服务】《北京市促进"人工智能+视 听"产业高质量发展行 ...

Pictet Asset Management策略师Luca Paolini表示，随着经济增长放缓为美联储进一步降息铺平道路，美 元明年将面临新一轮疲软。他指出，美元的利率差正在显著收窄。"我们预计美国经济会变得稍微疲 软，这将使通胀压力慢慢消失。"相对而言，世界其他地区的经济增长可能会改善，尤其是欧洲和日 本。除此之外，美元估值仍显偏高。 今日周五(11月28日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于12609一线上方，今日开盘于12500元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报12695元/千克，上涨2.95%，最高触及12705元/千克，最低下探12384元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 Spectra Markets总裁Brent Donnelly表示："市场很快就会考虑2026年的主要交易策略，我强烈认为'做多 美元'不会是其中之一。"他说，如果主张降息的白宫经济顾问哈塞特被任命为下一任美联储主席，这对 美元应该是不利的。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银再次刷新高点，目前价位在12700，破位了前高，很明显，白银还是绝对的强势，多头趋势下，上 涨不猜顶，无法看到白银的顶部点位在哪里 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing fluctuations due to mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies and the underlying economic conditions, with a current index of 99.55, reflecting a slight increase from the previous trading day [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The market is currently pricing in an 84.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, a significant increase from 30% on November 19, driven by divergent statements from Fed officials [1]. - New York Fed President Williams indicated there is room for rate cuts amid a cooling job market, while Fed Chair Powell maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing caution due to persistent inflation [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data shows resilience, with September non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations and the ISM services PMI reaching an eight-month high, indicating underlying economic support [2]. - However, challenges persist, such as a rising unemployment rate of 4.4% in September, the highest since September 2021, and average wage growth lagging behind inflation, eroding real purchasing power [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Currency Comparisons - The end of the US government shutdown has eased market liquidity tensions, but the dollar remains attractive as a high-yield currency, providing support for the index [2]. - The euro is under pressure due to weak economic recovery in the Eurozone and political instability in France, while the Japanese yen and British pound are influenced by hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan and positive developments in UK-EU cooperation, respectively [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis of the Dollar Index - The dollar index is showing a "double bottom" stabilization pattern, with solid support between 98.875 and 99, and currently above both the 5-day and 20-day moving averages [3]. - Key resistance is noted at the 100 level, with potential upward movement towards the 102 resistance zone if this level is breached [3]. - Upcoming events to watch include the December 10 FOMC meeting, October CPI data, and developments from the Eurozone central bank, all of which could significantly impact the dollar index [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: On the evening of November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management may be shifting, and key figures might turn dovish in the next two weeks. Attention should be paid to the speeches of key Fed voting members and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic: The internal driving force remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may bring marginal benefits to Q4 infrastructure investment. The LPR has remained stable since May, indicating that the central bank may not be in a hurry to further relax policies in the short term. New and second - hand housing sales have rebounded month - on - month, land supply has increased, but land transactions remain low. The demand and production capacity of real - estate front - end and back - end physical work have declined month - on - month [8]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, a hawkish Fed October meeting minutes, and strong September non - farm payroll data, the December rate - cut expectation was initially suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. Global equity sectors and base metals like copper were under pressure. However, the New York Fed President's dovish speech on Friday boosted the December rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in Q4. With the market sentiment lifted, short - term risk appetite may improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to allocate stocks, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The New York Fed President's speech on November 21st hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, and the Fed's expectation management may shift. Key figures may turn dovish in the next two weeks. Focus on key Fed voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic Macro: The issuance of policy - based financial instruments, special bonds, and debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure investment. The LPR has been stable, suggesting no urgent need for short - term policy relaxation. Housing sales have rebounded, but land transactions are low, and real - estate physical work demand and capacity have declined [8]. - Asset Views: Fed's mixed signals initially pressured the December rate - cut expectation and boosted the US dollar index. The New York Fed President's speech later changed the situation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in Q4 and look for low - price allocation opportunities in stocks, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock Index Futures: Hotspots have limited persistence. Wait for the main line. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on incremental funds [9]. - Stock Index Options: The market is gradually dominated by long - term factors. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on option market liquidity [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Short - term bond market disturbances exist. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policies [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on US fundamentals, Fed policies, and global equity market trends [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel and Iron Ore: The off - season fundamentals are lackluster, and the iron ore price remains resilient. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on special bond issuance, steel exports, iron production, and other factors [9]. - Coke: The cost is decreasing, and there is a strong expectation of price cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - Coking Coal: Coal mines are accumulating inventory, and the market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - Silicon Iron: Market confidence is low, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - Manganese Silicon: Inventory pressure is high, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on cost prices and foreign quotes [9]. - Glass: Cold - repair is uncertain, and the supply - demand improvement is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on spot sales [9]. - Soda Ash: Production is flat, and spot transactions are weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on soda ash inventory [9]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The Fed's rate - cut expectation is fluctuating, and the copper price is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policies [9]. - Alumina: The oversupply situation persists, and the price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on ore production and electrolytic aluminum production [9]. - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - Zinc: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply [9]. - Lead: The delivery of LME lead has slowed down, and the lead price may stop falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on supply disruptions and battery exports [9]. - Nickel: Environmental issues in Indonesian MHP production are causing price fluctuations. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on macro - geopolitical changes and Indonesian policies [9]. - Stainless Steel: The rebound of nickel price has driven the recovery of the stainless - steel market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on Indonesian policies and demand growth [9]. - Tin: Market sentiment has improved, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [9]. - Industrial Silicon: The oversupply pressure remains, and the silicon price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on supply - side production resumption and policy changes [9]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations are fluctuating, and the polysilicon price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on supply - side production resumption and domestic photovoltaic policies [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The demand expectation has boosted the lithium price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical premiums are fluctuating, and supply pressure persists. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitics [11]. - LPG: Supply is relatively tight, and the basis is at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - Asphalt: The price is oscillating around 3000. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on sanctions and supply disruptions [11]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on geopolitics and crude oil prices [11]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on crude oil prices [11]. - Methanol: The shutdown progress is rapid, and the price may rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - energy and overseas shutdown dynamics [11]. - Urea: Inventory has significantly decreased, and the sentiment is bullish. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on enterprise inventory reduction [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price center is mainly adjusted widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and trade frictions [11]. - PX: The cost is average, and the supply - demand pattern is okay. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and aromatics blending for oil [11]. - PTA: The basis is strong, and the profit is slightly repaired. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes [11]. - Short - Fiber: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on downstream yarn - mill purchasing and peak - season demand [11]. - Bottle - Chip: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is stagnant. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new - device commissioning [11]. - Propylene: The spot is strong, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [11]. - PP: The fundamental pressure remains, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro - situation [11]. - Plastic: The oil price has fallen, and the maintenance support is limited. The short - term judgment is a weakly volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro - situation [11]. - Styrene: The oil - blending narrative has faded, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [11]. - PVC: High inventory is suppressing the price, and it may be linked to production cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - Caustic Soda: The value is low, and the supply - demand is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on market sentiment, production, and demand [11]. - Oils and Fats: Market sentiment has stabilized, and the price may continue to be weakly bullish. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [11]. - Protein Meal: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the M15 spread is narrowing. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and trade frictions [11]. - Corn/Starch: The supply - demand is temporarily tight, and the price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on demand, macro - situation, and weather [11]. - Live Pigs: The live - pig spot price is weak, and the main contract rebounds with reduced positions. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - Natural Rubber: The impact of floods in the production area needs further observation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price is oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations [11]. - Cotton: There is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and the price is oscillating in the short term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on demand and inventory [11]. - Sugar: In the long - term, the driving force is downward, but the cost provides short - term support. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on imports and Brazilian production [11]. - Pulp: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the futures logic for near - and far - term contracts is different. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quotes [11]. - Offset Paper: The raw material price has fallen, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill production [11]. - Logs: The price of logs has fallen, and it is in a low - valuation area. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on shipping volume and sales volume [11].

Group 1 - The new LPR in China remains stable for the sixth consecutive month, with the 1-year and 5-year rates at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [1] - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 119,000 in September, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [1] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for November is at 51.9, a four-month low, while the services PMI is at 55, a four-month high, indicating mixed economic signals [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among officials regarding future rate cuts, with some advocating for a potential cut in December [2] - New York Fed President Williams suggests there is still room for further rate cuts as the labor market cools, while other officials express caution about high asset valuations [2] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have increased, with probabilities rising from 44% to 71% following supportive comments from several Fed officials [13] Group 3 - In the futures market, various commodities experienced price declines, with ICE Brent crude oil down 2.92% and COMEX gold down 0.77% [4] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 86.82 basis points, influenced by deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations and Fed meeting minutes that dampened rate cut expectations [4] - The A-share market saw declines across major indices, with the ChiNext index dropping 6.15%, attributed to falling risk appetite and Fed meeting outcomes [6] Group 4 - The bond market showed mixed movements, with credit bonds slightly rising while interest rate bonds experienced minor fluctuations [10] - U.S. Treasury yields generally declined, particularly the 5-year yield, which fell by 12 basis points, amid mixed economic signals and Fed officials' support for potential rate cuts [12]

Core Insights - The market is currently focused on U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals, leading to a decrease in risk aversion and a cautious sentiment among gold market bulls, resulting in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces [2] Economic Data Summary - Durable goods orders in the U.S. showed resilience with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% in September, surpassing market expectations of 0.3%, although lower than the revised 3.0% increase from the previous month [3] - Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose by 0.6%, continuing an upward trend; however, when excluding defense orders, the growth slowed significantly to only 0.1%, down from 1.9% in the previous month, indicating demand divergence in certain sectors [3] Labor Market and Manufacturing Insights - The labor market remains strong, with initial jobless claims falling to 216,000, the lowest in seven months, highlighting the current vitality of the labor market [4] - In contrast, the Chicago PMI for November dropped to 36.3, indicating further contraction in the manufacturing sector, reflecting ongoing pressures [4] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials have shifted market expectations towards a potential interest rate cut, with a significant increase in the probability of a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [5] - New York Fed President John Williams stated that a short-term rate cut would not hinder the Fed's ability to achieve its inflation targets, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller echoed this sentiment, suggesting that current labor market weaknesses justify another rate cut [5] - Fed Governor Stephen Milan also expressed a dovish stance, indicating that the weakening labor market and overall economic conditions necessitate substantial rate cuts to return monetary policy to neutral levels [5] - The anticipated rate cuts have led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which is expected to support the price of non-yielding assets like gold [5] - The market will continue to focus on Federal Reserve policy developments and key economic data, with the December FOMC meeting being a critical juncture for assessing the medium to long-term trends in gold prices [5]

【资讯导读】 ·美联储褐皮书：经济基本持平放缓风险上升 ·英国财政预算"泄密门"引爆市场关注 ·美国9月核心资本品订单远超预期 ·日本央行释放加息信号鹰派立场回归 ·韩国严打汇市投机排除美韩货币互换 【市场资讯】 ·美联储最新褐皮书显示，12个辖区中多数报告经济活动基本持平；两个辖区出现小幅下滑，仅一个录 得小幅增长。整体前景未显著变化，但部分受访者警告未来数月经济放缓风险加大。 ·英国预算责任办公室意外提前泄露秋季财政报告，披露财政缓冲空间翻倍至220亿英镑。报告确认冻结 个税起征点、提高股息税，并拟开征"豪宅税"和电动车"里程税"，引发广泛讨论。 ·加拿大总理卡尼宣布，将对非自贸伙伴国家的钢铁进口配额从2024年的50%大幅削减至20%，并对特定 钢铁衍生品征收25%全球关税，以保护本国产业。 ·消息人士透露，日本央行正为最早12月加息做准备。随着日元贬值压力加剧及政治阻力减弱，央行重 拾鹰派措辞，市场对结束负利率的预期升温。 ·日本政府计划取消对1万日元以下小额进口商品的免税政策，转而要求大型电商平台代缴消费税，适用 对象为年销售额超50亿日元的企业，旨在公平税负并增加财政收入。 ·韩国财政部长具润哲强 ...

来源：华尔街情报圈 裁员确实不多，初请失业救济人数下降； 但失业后重新就业变难，持续申领上升。 这两组信号对美联储意味着什么，是今天市场最关注的点。 初请下降，说明经济不坏，美联储不会被吓到；持续申领上升，劳动力市场正在慢慢降温。 组合在一起，对美联储的含义是：经济没崩，但正在放缓（不崩，但不强；不冷，但明显在冷却）——降息合理，但不需要紧急（该降，但不急）。 数据公布后，黄金自日内高点下跌逾30美元，美元指数则创下日内新高。虽然美联储变"鸽"了，但市场如果想守住之前的涨幅，需要经济数据配合。 黄金过去几天的涨势，全靠"美联储转鸽"的预期。结果现在数据给出来的情景是： 变弱？变了一点，但不够弱 北京时间21:30，分析师们最关心的数据出炉： - 美国上周初请失业救济人数降至7个月低点（21.6 万人）——比前一周减少 6000 人，也比市场预期的 22.5 万人要低 - 但再看持续申领，升上来了。增加 7000 人，达到 196 万人，是 2021 年 11 月以来最高水平。 两个数据完全不同调，这是当前美国劳动力市场的典型特征： 转鸽？是鸽，但没有更鸽 降息？会降，但不紧急 这等于告诉市场："你买得太超前了 ...

2026 年度展望：海外政策&海外宏观 20251125 2026 年海外政策和经济的展望是什么？ 2026 年的海外政策和经济展望主要集中在特朗普的中期选举策略上。特朗普 将围绕中期选举展开一系列政策行动，财政和货币政策将保持宽松，以营造有 利于美股和美国经济的环境，从而吸引选民支持。此外，贸易政策可能会出现 反复，尤其是关税冲突，市场情绪可能会逐步乐观，但也存在突然恶化的风险。 美国经济预计将呈现先抑后扬的态势。短期内，由于政府停摆，美国经济可能 受到阶段性冲击，但随着下半年宽财政、宽货币政策逐步出台，美国经济将在 2026 年下半年开始扩张周期，三季度触底回升，四季度通胀压力上升。 在大 类资产方面，黄金和 AI 被认为是最佳组合，各占一半。此外，股票、商品和短 期美债也将受益于宽松的财政和货币政策，而 10 年期美债则可能进入震荡状 态。美元指数全年相对看弱，但需关注欧元、日元和英镑等主要构成货币的变 化。整体来看，美联储降息预期较高，但需要关注 2026 年 3 月、4 月是否降 息，以及 5 月、6 月关税冲突再度激化时美债利率和美元指数的变化。 特朗普在 2026 年的中期选举中面临哪些挑战？ ...

Gold - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the U.S. economy requires significant interest rate cuts, as current monetary policy is raising borrowing costs, increasing unemployment, and slowing economic growth. He supports a 50 basis point cut due to recent employment slowdown and declining inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed concerns about the labor market and advocated for another rate cut in December, followed by gradual adjustments in subsequent meetings [1] - Analyst Owen from Baillie Gifford believes the probability of a December rate cut has risen, which is expected to boost gold prices [1] - Technically, gold has been on an upward trend since November 24, maintaining above $4100, with resistance at $4176 and a key support level at $4140 [1] Oil - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio indicated significant progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with Trump expressing optimism about a potential agreement, contingent on finalizing a ceasefire [2] - If a ceasefire is achieved, sanctions on Russian oil exports may be lifted, exacerbating the global oversupply risk due to OPEC+ production increases earlier this year [2] - Technically, oil has been in a downward trend since October 24, with strong support around $57, and resistance at $59.60. A drop below $57 could lead to a further decline towards $55 [2] Dollar Index - U.S. September retail sales data showed a 0.2% increase, below the previous 0.6% and the expected 0.4%. The September PPI year-on-year rate was 2.7%, consistent with expectations [3] - ADP private sector employment data revealed an average weekly layoff of 13,500 employees, an increase of 2,500 from the previous month. The U.S. consumer confidence index for November was reported at 88.7, the lowest since April [3] - Technically, the dollar index fell below the 100 level, with a focus on the important support level at 99.40. A break below this level could indicate a double top formation on the 4-hour chart [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shifted from a downward trend to a sideways movement, indicating an increased probability of a bottoming out. After three weeks of adjustment, it is approaching a decision point [4] - A breakout above 50100 could signal a new upward trend, while support is noted at 48580 [4] Copper - Copper prices have been fluctuating between $4.85 and $5.22 for the past two and a half months, with a narrowing range indicating an impending directional decision. A breakout above $5.11 could initiate a new upward trend, while a drop below $4.85 may lead to a deeper correction towards $4.63 [6] - The immediate support level is at $4.98 [6]