Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and shifts in U.S. monetary policy, with predictions for future gold prices reaching as high as $6,000 per ounce by 2026 or 2027 [1][3]. Market Performance - As of March 30, spot gold reached a peak of $4,580 per ounce, later settling around $4,556.63, reflecting a daily increase of 1.36% [1][2]. - The New York futures gold also saw fluctuations, with a current price of $4,580 [1]. - Oil prices showed a slight increase, with WTI crude oil peaking at $103 per barrel and currently at $101.64 [1][2]. - Bitcoin has recovered to $67,850.19, marking a daily increase of 2.79% [2]. Geopolitical Context - The article highlights ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and rising oil prices, which have contributed to a strong demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe haven [1]. - U.S. President Trump's statements regarding negotiations with Iran and potential military actions have added to market volatility and uncertainty [3]. Future Predictions - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $6,000 per ounce, with various institutions providing different timelines: - JPMorgan forecasts $6,300 by the end of 2026 [3]. - UBS suggests this target could be achieved by mid-2026 [3]. - Citigroup projects a $6,000 target by the end of 2027 [3]. - Goldman Sachs has a baseline scenario of $5,400 but acknowledges that prices could exceed $6,000 in optimistic scenarios [3].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - From March 23 to March 27, the Middle - East situation continued to affect the prices of major asset classes. Globally, the US dollar index rose weekly, stocks and bonds continued to decline, and commodities showed relatively strong performance. In China, stocks and commodities declined, while the bond market fluctuated. Overall, in dollar terms, commodities > bonds > stocks globally, and bonds > commodities > stocks in China. The Middle - East situation remains highly uncertain and will continue to impact major asset prices in the short term [3][6][16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Global Major Asset Performance 1.1 Global Stock Market Overview - Most major global stock markets declined in the week from March 23 to March 27. US stocks had the largest decline, and emerging markets underperformed developed markets. The VIX index rose weekly. For specific regions, in the Asia - Pacific market, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region dropped 1.52%, and the South Korean Composite Index fell 5.92%. In the European market, the ASCI Europe rose 0.12%. In the American market, the MSCI US declined 2.11%. In other markets, the Tel - Aviv 125 Index fell 5.22% [8][9][10] 1.2 Global Bond Market Overview - In the week of March 23 - 27, the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose 5BP to 4.44%. The bond market declined weekly, with the performance order globally being credit bonds > high - yield bonds > government bonds. The global bond index fell 0.49%, the global government bond index dropped 0.58%, and the global credit bond index decreased 0.38% [12] 1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview - From March 23 to March 27, the market's risk - aversion sentiment continued, and the US dollar index rose weekly, with a 0.67% increase. Most major non - US currencies declined against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated weakly [12] 1.4 Global Commodity Market Overview - Geopolitical factors supported the weekly increase in international oil prices. Most prices of major international precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products rose. The CRB spot index: comprehensive rose 1.41%, Brent crude oil increased 1.80%, and WTI crude oil rose 3.15% [14][15] 2. Domestic Major Asset Performance 2.1 Domestic Stock Market Overview - Investor sentiment remained cautious. Major A - share broad - based indices generally declined, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared to the previous week. The CSI 500 index was more resilient. The basic chemicals and non - ferrous metals sectors rose, while the non - banking and computer sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09% [18][19] 2.2 Domestic Bond Market Overview - From March 23 to March 27, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 281.9 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively stable, and the bond market fluctuated slightly stronger. Overall, government bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds. The ChinaBond - Total Wealth (Aggregate) Index rose 0.09% [20][21] 2.3 Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, the chemical and non - ferrous sectors had the largest increases, while precious metals performed poorly. The Nanhua Commodity Index fell 0.25% [22][23] 3. Outlook for Major Asset Prices - Overall, the Middle - East situation remains highly uncertain and will continue to have a certain impact on major asset prices in the short term. It is necessary to closely monitor its changes [27]

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a rise in oil prices, with a 2.12% increase observed during the week of March 20-27, 2026[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 5 basis points to 4.44%, while the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.67%[3] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has declined, with inflation expectations rising, exacerbating stagflation risks and delaying interest rate cuts[3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - As of March 27, 2026, the U.S. stock market fear index recorded 10.22, indicating a relatively pessimistic sentiment compared to historical lows[3] - The AAII investor sentiment index was at 49.79% on March 26, 2026, up 25.3% from pre-conflict levels but down 15.5% from the 2025 tariff period[3] - The valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is at an 85.9% historical percentile, lower than the KOSPI200 (91.3%) and CAC40 (93.2%), but higher than the S&P 500 (80.8%)[54] Group 3: Risk Asset Performance - The implied volatility for gold, aluminum, and U.S. stocks is at historical high percentiles of 98.6%, 87.7%, and 96.2% respectively, indicating heightened market uncertainty[41][46] - The risk-adjusted returns for the S&P 500 have dropped to the 6th percentile, while the NASDAQ's risk-adjusted returns fell to the 5th percentile as of March 27, 2026[51] - The Shanghai Composite's risk-adjusted return percentile increased from 39% to 42% during the same period[51] Group 4: Capital Flows - As of March 25, 2026, foreign capital continued to flow into the Chinese stock market, with a net inflow of $14.3 billion, while domestic capital saw a net outflow of $6.8 billion[3] - U.S. equity markets experienced a significant outflow of $270.2 billion, while fixed income funds saw an inflow of $51 billion during the same week[3]

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 4456.45, 67.29, 1950.00, 1434.00, 99.64, and 12251.50 respectively, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 5.16, and 50.50 [2] - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 99.92, 1.15, 1.33, 159.75, and 2.13 respectively, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, and 0.05 [2] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest inventory of COMEX Silver, SHFE Silver, and SGE Silver are 10218.98, 371.80, and 371.99 respectively, with changes of 0.00, 1.50, and 0.00 [3] - The latest values of Gold ETF持仓 and Silver ETF持仓 are 1052.70 and 15409.46 respectively, with changes of 0.00 and 0.00 [3] - The latest SGE Silver and SGE Gold deferred fee payment directions are 1 and 2 respectively, with no changes [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market's short - term outlook for the negotiation between the US and Iran is not optimistic, and risk appetite has significantly declined. A - share trading volume has shrunk, and risky assets are still under pressure. The bond market may weaken in the short term. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [1][3][13][17][19] - The dollar index is expected to rise in the short term. For stock index futures, it is recommended to hold low - position long positions and wait and see. For bond futures, short - term operations should be fast - in and fast - out, closely following the war situation. For various commodities, different investment suggestions are provided according to their respective fundamentals [14][18][20] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US initial jobless claims met market expectations. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities to April 6th, and the market's short - term expectation for the negotiation agreement has decreased, leading to a weakening of risk appetite. The US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [11][13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Trump will visit China in mid - May. A - share trading volume has shrunk below 2 trillion yuan, and the stock index rebound is blocked. The US - Iran situation remains deadlocked, and risky assets are under pressure. It is recommended to hold low - position long positions and wait and see [15][17][18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 224 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. If the war continues, high oil prices and inflation are the core negative factors for the bond market. The bond market may weaken in the short term, and strategies should be fast - in and fast - out [19][20] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 483,900 tons week - on - week. In mid - March, the daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises increased month - on - month. The demand for finished products is average, and the market expectation is unstable. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see [21][22][25] 2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The imported Mongolian coking coal market is stable. The first round of coke price increase has not been implemented. In the short term, the coking coal futures price is supported, but in the long term, the price increase is restricted. It is necessary to track the resumption of iron - making production, terminal demand, and coal mine resumption progress [26][27] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn consumption by deep - processing enterprises increased week - on - week, and imports from January to February increased significantly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has support. It is expected that corn will maintain a high - level shock pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [28][29][31] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The long - term over - capacity problem in the pig market persists. In the short term, the spot price is under pressure. For the near - month contract, it is recommended to sell on rallies; for the far - month contract, it is recommended to wait and see [32] 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The joint mining plan of Codelco and Anglo American has been approved. The macro and fundamental negative factors for copper are weakening. It is expected that the copper price will continue to build a bottom in a shock, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage strategy [33][36] 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium declined. The supply is relatively rigid, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, wait and see for palladium, and pay attention to the long - platinum short - palladium opportunity in the medium term [37][38][39] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Boliden's Garpenberg mine reduced production due to an earthquake. The domestic social inventory of lead decreased. The lead price may continue to build a bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the mid - line buying opportunity at low prices [40][41] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased. Boliden's Garpenberg mine reduced production, and the zinc price has long - term technical support. It is recommended to manage positions well when going long, and wait and see for arbitrage [42][43][44] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Yahua Group signed a purchase agreement. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [45][47][48] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The domestic and LME tin inventories changed. The supply and demand of tin are both weak, and the main contradiction is the continuous fermentation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [49][50][51] 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory decreased. The urea futures price rebounded, but the upper limit of the 05 contract is restricted. It is recommended to purchase according to rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [52][53] 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Jiangsu Sierbang's MTO device restarted, which is beneficial to the methanol futures price. It is recommended to take a bullish view and buy on dips [54] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price declined slightly. The supply may decrease, and the cost has increased. The market may continue the situation of supply contraction and cost support [55][56] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The supply may decrease in April, and the demand is stable. The price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda has increased. The supply - demand situation may improve marginally, but the increase space may be restricted [60][61] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased. The market is worried about short - term supply, and the Asian low - sulfur market may be in short supply. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [62][63][64] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash inventory changed little. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. The industry is in a situation of high supply and high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the energy price inflection point [65] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass decreased slightly. The supply pressure has decreased, but the demand is average, and the mid - stream inventory pressure is large. The glass futures price may have limited rebound [66] 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's foreign - trade container throughput increased in the first two months. The spot price is under pressure, and the near - month contract is returning to the spot logic. The far - month contract is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a shock strategy and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [67]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4564.55 with a change of 151.00 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 73.17 with a change of 3.20 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1892.00 with a change of -1.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1393.00 with a change of -55.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 90.32 with a change of -2.03 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 12229.00 with a change of 204.50 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 99.63 [1] - The latest exchange rate of Euro to US Dollar is 1.16 [1] - The latest exchange rate of British Pound to US Dollar is 1.34 [1] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 159.47 [1] - The latest value of the US 10 - year TIPS is 2.06 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 10228.11 with a change of -81.19 [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 376.09 with a change of 10.17 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1052.42 with a change of -0.57 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15513.67 with no change [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 371.99 with no change [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2 with no change [2] Group 3: Other Changes - There are changes of 0.40, -0.00, -0.00, 0.75, 0.00 (not clearly specified for which items) [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negotiation between the US and Iran is in a state of "talking and fighting", with unclear negotiation expectations, leading to high - level fluctuations in the US dollar index [1][11]. - A - shares opened higher and closed higher, but the sustainability of the short - term rebound of the stock index remains to be observed [2][15]. - The bond market has no trend - like market and is more concerned about geopolitical situations [3][16]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, showing different trends [4][20][26] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - A private credit fund managed by Ares Management had a record - breaking monthly loss in February, indicating the deterioration of the $1.8 trillion private credit market [10]. - Milan believes that the current monetary policy is suppressing the economy and advocates a 1 - percentage - point interest rate cut this year [11]. - The negotiation between the US and Iran is in a state of "talking and fighting", with unclear negotiation expectations, and the US dollar is fluctuating at a high level. It is recommended to expect the US dollar index to fluctuate at a high level [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares opened higher and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining 3900 points, and the market had more than 4800 rising stocks [13]. - Iran stated that non - hostile ships meeting certain conditions can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the market's concern about crude oil supply shortages and causing a significant rise in risk assets. However, the sustainability of the short - term rebound of the stock index remains to be observed. It is recommended to wait for the situation to become clear before making right - side trades [15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 78.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 58 billion yuan on the day, and will also conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations [16]. - The bond market has no trend - like market and is more concerned about geopolitical situations. It is recommended to closely monitor the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [16][17]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sintering machine renovation project of Henan Iron and Steel's Zhoukou Base was successfully put into operation [18]. - Steel prices are oscillating weakly. The progress of the iron ore negotiation has led to a decline in ore prices and steel prices. The steel product fundamentals lack clear drivers, and the downstream terminal demand is limited. It is recommended to hold a small - position wait - and - see attitude [18][19]. 2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the northern Shanxi market has increased. The short - term price is affected by international crude oil prices, and in the long - term, the upward movement of coking coal prices is still restricted. It is necessary to focus on the resumption of molten iron production, terminal demand fulfillment, and coal mine resumption progress [20][21]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of March 20, 2026, the domestic and foreign trade corn inventories in Guangdong Port decreased, while the inventories of imported sorghum and barley increased [22]. - The supply of corn is expected to increase, and the downstream demand has support. Policy auctions also provide bottom - line support for the corn market. It is expected that corn will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [23][25]. 2.4 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The average price of platinum and palladium rebounded slightly. The fundamentals lack a clear trading theme, and they mainly follow macro - level fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, use option positions, and wait and see for palladium. Also, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium in the medium term [26][27]. 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead showed a discount of $35.03 per ton on March 24. The lead price is oscillating at a low level. The downstream consumption is facing the off - season, but there is cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the mid - line opportunity of buying on dips, preferably on the right - hand side, and wait and see for arbitrage [28]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The CZSPT released the import zinc concentrate TC price guidance range for the end of the second quarter of 2026. The zinc price is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the mid - line opportunity of buying on dips. For arbitrage, maintain a long - short position in the domestic - foreign market in the mid - line [30][31]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zijin Mining plans to put the Manono lithium mine in the Congo into production in June this year, and Yahua Group signed a five - year lithium spodumene concentrate purchase agreement [32]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a tight balance in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after the price correction [34][35]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Luoyang钼业 released the production guidance for its main products in 2026. The copper price is affected by the Middle East war situation and is expected to continue to oscillate and build a bottom. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage [36][39]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Indonesia's tin ingot exports increased in February. The supply and demand of tin are both weak, and the short - term price decline was blocked by inventory reduction. It is necessary to pay attention to the evolution of the macro - trend [39][42]. 2.10 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - According to EIA weekly data, the US propane/propylene inventory increased. The price of LPG is expected to fluctuate widely due to the complex geopolitical situation [43][45]. 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. After the geopolitical risk premium is gradually squeezed out, there may still be opportunities for low - buying in the future [45][46]. 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt decreased. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to supply risks [47][48]. 2.13 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - COSCO Shipping resumed booking services for some countries in the Middle East, but it does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz has resumed navigation. The market's focus is still on the navigation situation of the Strait of Hormuz [49][51].

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 4466.25, 67.23, 1893.00, 1448.00, 92.35, and 12024.50 respectively. The price changes are 0.00, 0.00, -85.00, 14.00, 4.22, and 282.00 respectively [2]. - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 99.16, 1.16, 1.34, 158.43, and 2.01 respectively, with all changes being 0.00 [2]. Group 2: Trading Data - The latest inventory of COMEX Silver is 10329.17, and the change is 0.00. The latest inventory of SHFE Silver is 365.92, with a change of 1.37. The latest Gold ETF holding is 1052.70, and the change is 0.00. The latest Silver ETF holding is 15513.67, and the change is 0.00. The latest inventory of SGE Silver is 371.99, and the change is 0.00. The latest deferred fee payment direction of SGE Silver is 1, with a change of -1.00, and for another SGE Silver it is 2 with a change of 0.00 [3].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has eased, and the price of gold has declined for nine consecutive days; silver has fallen from the shock platform [1][3] - The trend intensity of both gold and silver is 0 [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking Price - The closing prices of various gold varieties showed a downward trend, with the daily decline of Shanghai Gold 2602 at -9.55%, Gold T+D at -11.49%, Comex Gold 2602 at -1.82%, and London Gold Spot at -1.88%. The night - time closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Gold T+D also showed a decline and an increase respectively, with the night - time decline of Shanghai Gold 2602 at -1.30% and the night - time increase of Gold T+D at 0.04% [1] - The prices of various silver varieties showed a mixed trend. The daily decline of Shanghai Silver 2602 was -12.30%, and Silver T+D was -13.96%, while Comex Silver 2602 increased by 2.23%, and London Silver Spot increased by 1.79%. The night - time closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and Silver T+D both increased, with the night - time increase of Shanghai Silver 2602 at 3.47% and Silver T+D at 4.83% [1] Trading Volume and Position - The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 increased by 43,191 compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 6,229. The trading volume of Comex Gold 2602 increased by 171,659, and the position decreased by 11,063 [1] - The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 2,980, and the position decreased by 3,257. The trading volume of Comex Silver 2602 increased by 37,853, and the position remained unchanged [1] ETF and Inventory - The position of SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 4, and the position of SLV Silver ETF (the day before yesterday) increased by 265 [1] - The inventory of Shanghai Gold decreased by 99 kilograms, the inventory of Comex Gold (the day before yesterday) remained unchanged, the inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 2054 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex Silver (the day before yesterday) decreased by 1,989,464 ounces [1] Spread - The spread between Gold T+D and AU2602 remained unchanged at -19.01. The spread between Shanghai Gold 2602 and 2606 contracts was N/A. The cost of the long - December and short - June inter - period arbitrage of Shanghai Gold decreased by 0.87 to 4.77. The spread between Gold T+D and London Gold increased by 505.18 to 551.81 [1] - The spread between Silver T+D and AG2602 decreased by 99 to -66. The spread between Shanghai Silver 2602 and 2606 contracts decreased by 414 to -13,933. The cost of the long - December and short - June inter - period arbitrage of Shanghai Silver decreased by 11.3 to 73.41. The spread between Silver T+D and London Silver decreased by 2,872 to -2,071 [1] Exchange Rate - The US dollar index was 99.12, the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNY spot) was 6.91, the euro against the US dollar was 1.16 (unchanged), the US dollar against the Japanese yen was 159.22 (an increase of 0.05), and the British pound against the US dollar was 1.21 (unchanged) [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - The three major US stock indexes all rose by more than 1%, achieving the largest single - day increase in six weeks. Airlines, tourism, and cruise stocks rose sharply; crude oil fell by more than 10% [1] - US Treasury bonds and cryptocurrencies rose during the session; spot gold declined for nine consecutive days [3] - Trump said that the dialogue with Iran in the past two days was "fruitful", and the dialogue had formed the main points of the agreement. The attack on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure was postponed for five days, and consultations were being held with Iran to reach a broader agreement [4] - US media reported that many countries were coordinating a meeting between the US and Iran in Islamabad this week; Iran denied that the speaker was negotiating with the US, calling the false news a condition for assassination, and said that the US had tried to negotiate through an intermediary but Iran did not respond [4] - The Iranian military said that it had effectively controlled the Strait of Hormuz and did not need to lay mines in the Persian Gulf; if the islands were attacked, mines would be laid immediately [4] - The US Energy Secretary said that the strategic petroleum reserve might be released again, but the possibility was very low. Japan was considering intervening in crude oil futures due to the continuous increase in costs caused by the Middle East crisis. The Japan Petroleum Association called for a second release of the petroleum reserve, with the scale comparable to the first 80 million [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The possibility of the end of the US - Iran war has significantly increased, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index, a rebound in A - shares, and a general rise in various assets. The market's risk preference is in a state of shock. For commodities, different sectors have different trends and influencing factors, such as steel prices being affected by cost and demand, and copper prices being affected by macro and fundamental factors [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US intends to propose a one - month cease - fire to discuss a 15 - point agreement with Iran. The possibility of the end of the US - Iran war has significantly increased, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [1][12][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a volume - shrinking rebound due to the easing of the US - Iran situation. If the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz can be restored through negotiation, the stagflation trade may reverse, and equity opportunities will emerge. Currently, due to high uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and add positions on dips [2][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 17.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations. The market has carried out TACO trading, with various assets generally rising. It is necessary to closely monitor the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [3][19][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Mexico and South Africa have made anti - dumping rulings on Chinese steel products. Steel prices are oscillating. The lack of clear fundamentals and the influence of Trump's statements and the Middle East situation have led to market fluctuations. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by cost, and the upside space is limited [4][22][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The power coal market in Shaanxi is strong. The coking coal spot market has a good trading atmosphere, with prices rising. In the short term, the international oil price and downstream replenishment support the coking coal price, but in the long term, the lack of terminal demand and sufficient supply may suppress the price [27][28][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US and Vietnamese textile and clothing imports and exports have different trends. The domestic textile industry is in good condition, with sufficient orders. However, there are concerns about import yarn, policy tools, planting area, and the macro - economic situation. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short term and may adjust downward from April to May [31][33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of corn in the four northern ports has increased, and the sales progress of the grassroots has recovered. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand has rigid support. The policy provides a bottom - support for the corn price. Corn is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Dazhong Mining plans to invest in a lithium salt project. The lithium export ban in Zimbabwe has not been lifted as expected. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand for new energy vehicles is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after a correction [39][40][41]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium rebounded slightly. The market follows macro - fluctuations. The supply is relatively rigid, and the demand has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, use options, and pay attention to the opportunity of long platinum and short palladium [41][42][43]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is oscillating at a low level. The LME inventory and domestic social inventory are decreasing. The terminal consumption is facing the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [44][45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price is oscillating at a low level. The LME inventory and domestic social inventory are decreasing. The zinc price has long - term technical support. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [46][47]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Atalaya's copper production in the first quarter is slightly lower than planned. The macro - factors are complex and changeable, and the fundamentals show internal - external differentiation. The copper price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage [48][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin is at a discount. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the spot is at a premium. The supply and demand are both weak, and the tin price is oscillating widely due to the influence of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [52][54]. 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG spot price is stable, with some low - price areas having a supplementary increase. The market is affected by the news of the US - Iran negotiation. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of price fluctuations [55]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses is decreasing. The downstream enterprises maintain rigid procurement, and the supply has a gap. It is recommended to take a bullish - oscillating view [56][57][58]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries is decreasing, and the social inventory is increasing. The asphalt price is affected by the oil price and the geopolitical situation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [58][59]. 3.2.14 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The US - Iran situation has a impact on the oil price and the container freight rate. The near - month and far - month contracts have different logics. It is recommended to maintain a bullish - oscillating view and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [60][61].