Tabl e_Title 2025 年 12 月 15 日 大类资产运行周报（20251208-20251212） 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 0.33% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -0.24% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.03% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.01% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.01% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | -0.59% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn -2.51% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | -2.92% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20250915 -20250919）-美联 ...

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 12 月 8 日 大类资产运行周报（20251201-20251205） 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20250908 -20250912）-美国通胀数据温和回升 风 险资产上涨 大类资产运行周报（20250915 -20250919）-美联储如期降息 美股周度 收涨 大类资产运行周报（20250922 -20250926）-美国通胀数据符合预期 大 宗商品整体上涨 大类资产运行周报（20251006 -20251010）-中美贸易摩擦预期再起 风 险资产回落 大类资产运行周报（20251013 -20251017）-多重风险事件扰动 美元指 数周度回落 大类资产运行周报（20251020 -20251024）-美国通胀数据不及预期 权 益资产上涨 大类资产运行周报（20251027 -20251031）-美联储如期降息 美股涨势 延续 大类资产运行周报（20251103 -20251107）-美国政府停摆破纪录 大类 资产价格回落 大类资产运行周报（20251110 -20251114）-美国政府停摆结束 关键数 据有望公布 大类资产运行周报（20251117 -20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From November 3rd to November 7th, due to the U.S. federal government shutdown exceeding the historical record and the deadlock in the U.S. Supreme Court tariff hearing, the U.S. dollar index declined weekly. Overall, stocks, bonds, and commodities all fell to varying degrees, with bonds > commodities > stocks in terms of performance when priced in U.S. dollars [3][6]. - During the same period in China, the stock market rose while the bond market and commodities declined. With the 10 - year RatingDog manufacturing PMI at 50.6% and the service PMI at 52.6% in October, exports turned negative year - on - year, import growth slowed, the decline in PPI narrowed, and CPI turned positive year - on - year. Overall, stocks > bonds > commodities [3]. - As the U.S. government shutdown nears its end and key data is expected to be released, market uncertainty may decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment changes on the prices of major asset classes [3][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market - From November 3rd to November 7th, due to increased market risk - aversion, most major global stock markets fell. U.S. stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets were slightly more resilient than developed markets. The VIX index rose weekly [8]. - The MSCI Asia - Pacific region fell 1.28% in the past week, the MSCI U.S. fell 1.71%, and the CI Europe fell 0.91% [8][11][14]. 3.1.2 Global Bond Market - The yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond remained at 4.11% the same as last week. The bond market declined weekly, with government bonds > credit bonds > high - yield bonds globally [12]. - The global bond index fell 0.06% in the past week, the global government bond index fell 0.05%, and the global credit bond index fell 0.13% [12]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The U.S. dollar index declined weekly by 0.18%. Although the U.S. ADP employment in October was better than expected, most major non - U.S. currencies against the U.S. dollar declined, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range [13]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market - International oil prices declined weekly due to supply pressure and the easing of short - term Russian oil sanction risks. Precious metal prices continued to fluctuate at high levels, and most major agricultural and non - ferrous metal prices fell [17]. - The RJ/CRB commodity price index fell 0.54% in the past week, and the S&P GSCI commodity total return index also fell 0.54% [18]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market - The A - share market sentiment was stable, and most major broad - based indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. The BeiZheng 50 performed poorly, and sectors such as new energy and steel led the gains, while pharmaceuticals and computers performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.08% weekly [20]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market - From November 3rd to November 7th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan. The money market remained generally loose, and the bond market oscillated weakly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [23]. - The ChinaBond Total Wealth (Aggregate) Index fell 0.07% in the past week, and the ChinaBond Corporate Bond Total Wealth (Aggregate) Index rose 0.07% [24]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, oils and fats led the gains, while the black metal sector performed poorly [24]. - The Nanhua Commodity Index fell 0.47% in the past week, and the Nanhua Black Metal Index fell 2.62% [25]. 3.3 Outlook for Major Asset Prices - As the U.S. government shutdown nears its end and key data is expected to be released, market uncertainty may decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment changes on major asset prices [27].

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Operation of Major Asset Classes (20250922 - 20250926) - US Inflation Data Meets Expectations, with Commodities Rising Overall [1] - Timeframe: September 22 - September 26, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global: The market's performance last week was influenced by economic data. The US 8 - month PCE year - on - year growth rate met market expectations. The dollar index ended the week higher, stocks and bonds declined, and commodities rose. In general, commodities > stocks > bonds in terms of dollar - denominated assets [4][7]. - Domestic: China's industrial enterprise profits returned to positive growth in August year - on - year. The stock market and commodities ended the week higher, and the bond market declined. Overall, commodities > stocks > bonds [4][20]. - Outlook: The focus is on the release of domestic and foreign macro - data during the National Day. There are important data such as non - farm payrolls to be released, leading to high market uncertainty. After the holiday, price fluctuations of major asset classes may increase [4][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market - Most global stock markets declined. US stocks had a weekly correction. From a regional perspective, the three major US stock indexes ended the week lower, with a relatively large decline in the Asia - Pacific region. Emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index continued to operate at a low level [9]. - Specific index performance: MSCI US was down 0.35%, S&P 500 was down 0.31%, MSCI Asia - Pacific was down 1.02%, etc. [12][13] 3.1.2 Global Bond Market - Fed officials had some differences in the path of dollar interest rate cuts this year. Medium - and long - term US bond yields generally rose. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose 6BP to 4.2% weekly, and the bond market declined. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The initial value of the month - on - month growth rate of US durable goods orders in August far exceeded expectations. The dollar index rose weekly, and most non - US currencies depreciated against the dollar. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated weakly. The weekly increase of the dollar index was 0.55% [17]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market - Geopolitical factors caused disruptions again, and international oil prices ended the week higher. Expectations of dollar interest rate cuts supported international precious metal prices. Most industrial metals and agricultural product prices fell [19]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market - Market sentiment changed little. Most of the major broad - based A - share indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index had the highest increase. In terms of sectors, electronics and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while consumer services underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21% weekly [21]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market - The central bank's net injection in the open market operation was 940.6 billion yuan. The liquidity marginally eased, and the bond market was weak. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [25]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market continued to rise weekly. Among the major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, while the black - related sectors underperformed [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the week from August 18th to 22nd, at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released a dovish signal, causing the expectation of a September US dollar interest rate cut to rise. The US and the EU reached an agreement on the trade agreement framework, and the US dollar index declined weekly. Globally, stocks were divided, while bonds and commodities rose, with commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of US - dollar - denominated performance. In China, the stock market rose, while the bond and commodity markets were weak, with stocks > bonds > commodities. Liquidity and policy expectations resonated, driving the rise of the domestic equity market. With the Fed releasing a rate - cut signal, the subsequent market sentiment changes should be monitored [3][6][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks Divided, Bonds and Commodities Rising - **Global Stock Market Overview**: Due to the uncertainty of the market regarding Powell's speech, the global stock market first declined and then rose. European stocks had the highest increase, and emerging markets underperformed developed markets. The VIX index continued to fluctuate at a low level. For example, MSCI Europe rose 1.42% weekly, while MSCI Asia - Pacific fell 0.56% [7][11][13]. - **Global Bond Market Overview**: Powell signaled a cautious US dollar interest rate cut. His statement made it difficult for Fed officials to reach a broad policy consensus. The yields of medium - and long - term US bonds generally declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping 7BP to 4.26% weekly. Globally, credit bonds > high - yield bonds > government bonds [15]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was better than expected and the previous value. The expectation of a September interest rate cut led to a 0.12% weekly decline in the US dollar index. Major non - US currencies against the US dollar had mixed performances, and the RMB exchange rate was oscillating strongly [17]. - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: The expectation of a US dollar interest rate cut weakened the US dollar index, promoting the rise of the international commodity market. Major industrial products and agricultural products generally rose [19]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Rising, Bond and Commodity Markets Weak - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: The positive momentum of market risk appetite remained unchanged. Major broad - based A - share indexes generally rose, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The growth style was more prominent, and the communication and electronics sectors had the highest increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.49% weekly [21]. - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: The central bank's net investment in the open - market operations was 126.52 billion yuan. The capital supply tightened, and the bond market declined weekly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, the energy sector rose, while the black sector performed poorly. For example, the Nanhua Commodity Index fell 0.44% weekly [25]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook - Pay attention to the sentiment changes in the domestic equity market. The resonance of liquidity and policy expectations drove the rise of the domestic equity market. Coupled with the Fed's rate - cut signal, monitor the subsequent market sentiment changes [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged, the Middle - East geopolitical situation further escalated, the US dollar index rose weekly, stocks and bonds were weak, and commodities continued to rise. In general, commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of USD - denominated assets [3][6]. - In China, from June 16th to June 20th, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in May was lower than expected, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May was higher than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment from January to May was 3.7%, lower than expected. The year - on - year decline of national real estate development investment from January to May was 10.7%. The stock market declined, and the bond market and commodities rose. Generally, commodities > bonds > stocks [3]. - The market will focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Large - scale Asset Overall Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Middle - East situation increased market risk - aversion, and most global stock markets declined. European stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets were slightly more resilient than developed markets. The VIX index fluctuated weekly [8]. - **Global Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The divergence of Fed officials' monetary policy expectations increased. Medium - and long - term US bond yields declined, and the 10 - year US bond yield fell 3BP to 4.38% weekly. The bond market fluctuated weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [13]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the US macro data was generally stable, market risk - aversion increased, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated narrowly. The US dollar index rose 0.63% weekly [14]. - **Global Commodity Market**: The escalation of the geopolitical situation supported the high - level operation of international oil prices. Precious metal prices declined, and the prices of major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends [16]. 3.2 Domestic Large - scale Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the geopolitical situation continued to affect equity assets, and most major broad - based A - share indexes declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, large - cap blue - chips were relatively more resilient. Among sectors, banks had the highest gains, while pharmaceuticals and textile and apparel underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51% weekly [18]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 799 billion yuan. The capital market remained stable overall. The bond market fluctuated strongly weekly. Generally, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [21]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose overall. Among major commodity sectors, energy had the highest gains, while precious metals underperformed [22]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Price Outlook - The market will continue to focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [23].