Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View New-season soybeans are still in the listing period. Affected by positive factors such as stable grain - selling sentiment and increased purchasing behavior driven by the reduction in southern production areas, the price of domestic soybeans has run stronger than the season. The main contradiction of loose supply and price pressure has changed. However, with the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the possible restart of US soybean imports, the market's bullish sentiment is suppressed. The market has entered a consolidation stage after the rise. In the later stage, the purchasing intensity in the spot market is the key to determining the soybean price trend, and the situation of price variation may continue [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast and Risk Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for the bean - one 11 - contract in the month is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.72% and a historical percentile of 29.3% [3]. - **Risk Strategies** - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long positions due to large new - bean sales demand in autumn and concentrated listing, two strategies are recommended. One is to short bean - one futures (A2601) with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is above 4100 to lock in planting profits. The other is to sell the call option A2511 - C - 4050 with a 30% ratio at 30 - 50 (holding) to increase the grain - selling price [3]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those worried about rising raw - material prices and increased procurement costs (short positions), the main strategy is to wait to purchase spot goods in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long positions in A2603 and A2605 are recommended, waiting for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.2 Core Contradiction Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Stable grain - selling sentiment, repayment needs, improved storage conditions due to colder weather, and strong purchasing willingness from the mid - and downstream support the price. The non - start of previous years' state - reserve purchases also restricts price decline [4][7]. - **Negative Factors**: The resumption of new - season soybean harvesting and listing in southern production areas ensures short - term supply. The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the possible restart of US soybean imports change the market's bullish logic [4][7]. 3.3 Price and Market Data - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, 2025, the spot price of Harbin (domestic third - grade) soybeans was 3900 yuan/ton with a basis of - 177, and that of Nenjiang was 3860 yuan/ton with a basis of - 244 [5]. - **Futures Closing Price**: From October 24 to 27, 2025, the closing prices of bean - one futures contracts all declined. For example, the bean - one 11 - contract decreased by 0.54% from 4076 to 4054 yuan/ton [8].