Report Overview - The report is the Weekly Report on Meal and Oil by Yangtze River Futures, dated March 23, 2026, focusing on the meal and oil industries [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Soybean Meal - Due to lower - than - expected Brazilian shipments, tightened domestic supply - demand, and cost increases from rising crude oil prices, the bottom of soybean meal prices has been lifted. However, recent acceleration in shipments has put pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to Brazilian shipments and auctions [6] Oils - In the short term, the ongoing Middle - East war and the risk of further escalation continue to support international crude oil and vegetable oil prices. But the risk of global economic recession and the expected increase in supply in the second quarter limit the upside of oil prices. Oils are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with soybean and rapeseed oils likely to perform better than palm oil. It is recommended to roll long on oils and gradually reduce previous long positions [75] Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Price Performance - As of March 19, the spot price in East China was 3,290 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2605 contract closed at 3,029 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 05 + 270 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. Spot prices are strong in March - April due to de - stocking expectations, while the 05 contract price is under pressure in May due to improved supply - demand [6][8] 1.2 Supply - The March USDA report maintained US and Brazilian soybean production and slightly lowered Argentine production, with the global soybean harvest remaining abundant. Brazilian soybean harvest progress has accelerated, but domestic logistics issues have increased freight costs. The expected arrival of soybeans in China in March - April has been further reduced, and soybeans and soybean meal are in a de - stocking cycle, with supply - demand tightening. Recent shipment progress has accelerated [6] 1.3 Demand - China's pig inventory remains high, but recent losses in pig farming may lead to a decline in pig inventory in the second half of the year if losses continue. Poultry inventory is high, supporting soybean meal demand. However, due to the rise in corn prices, wheat substitution has increased, and the proportion of soybean meal added has decreased. Overall, soybean meal demand remains high, but recent price increases have weakened downstream purchasing sentiment. As of March 13, national soybean inventory was 5.4861 million tons, down 240,600 tons month - on - month and up 2.31 million tons year - on - year; soybean meal inventory was 627,300 tons, down 133,200 tons month - on - month and down 55,700 tons year - on - year [6] 1.4 Cost - Based on the current US soybean price of 1,150 cents, a premium of 150 cents, and an oil - meal ratio of 2.9, the theoretical price of soybean meal is 2,980 yuan/ton. The announced planting cost of US soybeans in the 2026/27 season is 1,218 cents per bushel, and it may rise further if crude oil prices continue to increase. Import crushing margins have improved, with the margin for Brazilian soybeans at around 100 yuan/ton, which is at a relatively good level compared to historical periods [6] 2. Oils 2.1 Price Performance - As of the week ending March 20, the palm oil 05 contract fell 50 yuan/ton to 9,718 yuan/ton; the 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell 90 yuan/ton to 9,750 yuan/ton; the palm oil 05 basis fell 40 yuan/ton to 32 yuan/ton. The soybean oil 05 contract fell 62 yuan/ton to 8,628 yuan/ton; the fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 120 yuan/ton to 8,810 yuan/ton; the soybean oil 05 basis fell 58 yuan/ton to 182 yuan/ton. The rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 55 yuan/ton to 9,876 yuan/ton; the third - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 40 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil 05 basis fell 95 yuan/ton to 374 yuan/ton [75][77] 2.2 Palm Oil - The February MPOB report's downward adjustment of ending inventory was less than expected, with a neutral - to - bearish impact. However, Malaysian palm oil production continued to decline in March (SPPOMA reported a 5.28% decline in output from January 1 to 15), and exports improved significantly (a 38.06 - 45.59% increase in exports from March 1 to 20). In Indonesia, if oil transportation is blocked, domestic biodiesel consumption may increase, which is positive for domestic palm oil consumption. In China, palm oil arrivals increased significantly in February, and inventory has been accumulating due to weak demand. As of March 13, domestic palm oil inventory rose to 842,000 tons. However, the expected arrivals in March - April are low, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation [75] 2.3 Soybean Oil - The March USDA report had a neutral impact. Market attention is on the Middle - East situation, US soybean demand, and South American soybean production. Although Trump's planned visit to China in late March was postponed, it has been rescheduled to mid - May, alleviating concerns about China not fulfilling its US soybean purchase agreement. The White House plans to hold a biodiesel event on March 27, and the market is highly concerned about the possible release of a biodiesel blending policy. In the first quarter, the arrival of soybeans in China decreased seasonally, and tightened quarantine policies have made it difficult for Brazilian soybeans to clear customs, which is beneficial for reducing soybean oil inventory. As of March 13, soybean oil inventory decreased slightly to 890,900 tons. However, Brazil will send a delegation to China to discuss soybean quarantine issues, and the number of Brazilian soybean shipments to China has begun to increase. It is expected that a record - high volume of South American soybeans will enter China in April - May, limiting the further reduction of soybean oil inventory [75] 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The Middle - East war has pushed up international crude oil prices and freight rates, increasing the cost of imported rapeseed. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hindered the transportation of Dubai rapeseed oil to China, and the clearance time for Russian crude rapeseed oil has been extended, exacerbating the tight supply of domestic rapeseed oil. However, China's comprehensive import tax on Canadian rapeseed has been reduced to 15%, and there are reports that China has started to increase Canadian rapeseed purchases. The previously purchased 10 shipments of Canadian rapeseed will arrive in China between March and May, and it is expected that the tight supply of rapeseed oil will ease after March. As of March 13, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 151,000 tons, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 281,500 tons, showing a slight increase [75]