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巴西大豆每蒲式耳溢价2.8美元、日本要接盘美豆?高市早苗这招真够狠的
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-26 14:40
Group 1 - Brazilian soybeans are currently priced higher than American soybeans, leading to concerns for Chinese oil mills about profitability [2] - Since 2017, China's imports of American soybeans have decreased from 40% to 20%, while Brazilian soybeans have increased from 50% to 70% [2] - Chinese buyers are refraining from purchasing Brazilian soybeans for December and January due to high prices, indicating a potential strategy of "delayed purchasing" [3] Group 2 - The challenge of increasing domestic soybean production is complicated by limited arable land and the need to prioritize staple crops like rice and wheat [4] - Advances in alternative feed technologies have allowed for a 15% replacement ratio of soybean meal with other meals, indicating a diversification strategy [4] - Japan's new leadership under Kishi Sanae is attempting to address economic security issues, potentially looking to purchase American soybeans to alleviate losses for U.S. farmers [7] Group 3 - Brazilian soybean prices are expected to decline as new harvests come in, following market supply dynamics [7] - China's strategic reserves of soybeans are deemed sufficient to manage short-term price fluctuations [7] - The diversification of import sources beyond Brazil and Argentina is emphasized, with a clear understanding of not relying solely on one supplier [8] Group 4 - The market economy principles suggest that if Brazil attempts to exploit China as a market, China may respond by reducing purchases [10] - There is a growing awareness of the health implications of excessive oil consumption, which could influence consumer behavior and demand [10]