三大油脂周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251128 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内三大油脂现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.11.21 | 2025.11.28 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅% | 现货指标 2025.11.21 | | 2025.11.28 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅% | | 棕榈油 | P2601 | 8550 | 8626 | 76 | 0.89 | 中国：现货价：棕榈油： 生意社 | 8532 | 8518 | -14 | -0.16 | | 菜油 | OI2601 | 9816 | 9757 | -59 | -0.60 | 中国：现货价：菜油： 生意社 | 10167 | 10145 | -22 | -0.21 | | 豆油 | Y2601 | 8190 | 8244 | 54 | 0.66 | 中国：现货价：豆油： 生意社 | 8392 | 8412 | 2 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.28」 菜籽类市场周报 菜系消息较为匮乏 菜油粕窄幅波动 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： 3 来源：大商所 wind 图1、郑商所菜油主力合约期货价格走势 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡收低，01合约收盘价9757元/吨，较前一周-59元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：本年度加菜籽出口明显下滑，给市场带来一定压力。不过，加拿大生物燃料生产激励 计划，明确将菜籽油作为核心原料，政策端有所利好。且加拿大与巴基斯坦发表联合声明称，双 方已达成协议，将推动加拿大油菜籽出口至巴基斯坦。这一消息为加拿大油菜籽提供了一定的支 持。其它方面，美国政府正考虑削减生物燃料进口激励措施的计划推迟1-2年实施，且11月马棕产 量增加而出口下滑，累库压力仍存。不过，近期东南亚多地遭遇洪涝灾害，棕榈油季节性减产预 期增强，提振马棕低 ...

油料周报 油料产业周报 2025/11/28 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司 ...

农产品板块研发报告 油脂缺乏利多驱动 短期或继续底部震荡 第一部分 前言概要 | | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 3 | | | | 二、马棕 11 | 月存增产预期，印尼关税下调一档 4 | | | 三、印度完成本年度采购，新年度或将增加棕榈油进口 | | 8 | | 四、美豆采购进度不快，国内油脂库存仍偏高 | | 11 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 15 | | | 免责声明 | | 16 | 【行情回顾】 11 月，油脂分化比较明显，其中棕榈油跌幅较大，豆油走出倒 V，而 菜油探底后震荡上涨。11 月中上旬棕榈油空头情绪较浓，棕榈油被空配以 及技术性打压，棕榈油下跌较多，而菜油受通关政策影响出现超跌反弹以及 加拿大计划推进生柴等，菜油震荡上涨。11 月中下旬受美国生柴消息扰动 以及马棕高频数据利空等，油脂波动加大，之后棕榈油在快速下跌后开始反 弹，而菜油在澳菜籽逐渐到港以及放 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 11 月 28 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-28） 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 | | | | 前景，玻璃需求整体偏弱，企业库存连续增加。按照目 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 前的供需水平，玻璃日熔量要在年底前降到 15.4 万吨 | | | | | 左右的水平才能解决全产业链过剩的矛盾，后续向上高 | | | | | 度能否继续打开就要看冷修的进度。关注宏观以及产线 | | | | | 冷修情况能否给市场带来止跌企稳契机。 | | | 上证 50 | 震荡 | 股指期货/期权：上一交易日，沪深 300 股指收录-0.05%， | | | | | 上证 50 股指收录 0.02%，中证 500 股指收录-0.20%， | | | 沪深 300 | 震荡 | 中证 1000 股指收录 0.12%。造纸、精细化工板块呈现 | | | | | 资金净流入，工程机械、互联网板块呈现资金净流出。 | | | | | 国务院总理李强主持召开国务 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-11-28 印尼马来遭遇台风，棕榈油震荡偏强 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8528.00元/吨，环比变化+88元，幅度+1.04%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8224.00 元/吨，环比变化+74.00元，幅度+0.91%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9772.00元/吨，环比变化-47.00元，幅度-0.48%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8470.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.71%，现货基差P01-58.00，环比变化 -28.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8400.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元/吨，幅度+0.84%，现货基差Y01+176.00， 环比变化-4.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10070.00元/吨，环比变化-70.00元，幅度-0.69%，现货基差 OI01+298.00，环比变化-23.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚11月1-25日棕榈油出口量为583574吨，较上 月同期出口的985301吨减少40.77%。总台记者当地时间11月27日获悉，持续暴雨在印度尼西亚苏 ...

数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。历史分位数:根据各品种近五年的基差水平排序 免责声明 | 1.63% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF603) | 66.70% | 5478 | 5390 | 88 | 2.56% | 144 | 5770 | 52.20% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐 (SM601) | 5626 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4.75% | 147 | 3240 | 62.00% | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2601) | 3093 | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | -3 | -0.09% | 热卷(HC2601) | 3290 | 3293 | 17.00% | | | | | | 7.56% | 铁矿石 (12601) | 60 | 折算价:6 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 南美种种进度低于去年同期，且本周及未来十五天降雨展望低于正常水平。利多盘 | | 豆粕 | | 面。但国内目前大豆及豆粕库存供应偏高，好在现货油厂销售压力下降，存在挺价 | | | 短线偏多震荡 | 心理。中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决。贸易成本叠加巴 | | ★ | | 西种植升水，短线暂震荡偏多，但主力合约向上空间预计有限。关注南美大豆种植 | | | | 天气后续进展。 | | | 短线整理 | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，现货降价去库。 | | 菜粕 | | 基本面暂无大波动预期。远期供需层面偏强，近端港口库存同比偏高存在压力，近 | | ★ | | 日跟随豆粕反弹。主力合约追多谨慎，受豆粕端天气升水炒作带动，远月菜粕可关 | | | | 注逢低看多机会。关注中加贸易后续进展。 | | | 偏弱整理 | 棕榈油阶段性供需偏弱状态，11 月马棕榈油前 25 日出口数据维持弱势，但较前 20 | | 棕榈油 | | 日跌幅略有回升。欧洲议会支持将《欧盟零毁林法案 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oil prices are influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, and domestic industrial enterprise profits have declined. A - shares are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and the bond market still has bearish sentiment. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate, copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate favorably, alumina prices are expected to continue to be weak, casting aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in a wide range, lead prices are expected to stabilize and consolidate, tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile, industrial silicon prices are expected to be strongly volatile, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, nickel prices are expected to be strongly volatile, soda ash and glass prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure, coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate, and palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [2][3][4][6][8][10][11][12][13][15][16][18][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - SHFE copper closed at 86,990 yuan/ton, up 0.46%; LME copper closed at 10,930 dollars/ton, down 0.21% [30] - SHFE aluminum closed at 21,500 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; LME aluminum closed at 2,832 dollars/ton, down 1.13% [30] - SHFE zinc closed at 22,415 yuan/ton, up 0.27%; LME zinc closed at 3,022 dollars/ton, down 1.08% [30] - SHFE lead closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, down 0.64%; LME lead closed at 1,984 dollars/ton, up 0.51% [30] - SHFE nickel closed at 116,900 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; LME nickel closed at 14,840 dollars/ton, down 0.03% [30] - SHFE tin closed at 302,200 yuan/ton, up 2.14%; LME tin closed at 37,925 dollars/ton, down 0.43% [30] - COMEX gold closed at 4,189.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.15%; SHFE silver closed at 12,525.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.44%; COMEX silver closed at 53.83 dollars/ounce, up 0.12% [30] - SHFE rebar closed at 3,093 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,293 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [30] - DCE iron ore closed at 799.5 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; DCE coking coal closed at 1,071.0 yuan/ton, down 1.24%; DCE coke closed at 1,607.0 yuan/ton, down 0.74% [30] - GFEX industrial silicon closed at 9,115.0 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [30] - DCE soybean meal closed at 3,055.0 yuan/ton, up 1.33%; CZCE rapeseed meal closed at 2,469.0 yuan/ton, up 1.23% [30] 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, SHFE copper's closing price on November 27 was 86,990 yuan/ton, up 400 from the previous day; LME copper's closing price was 10,930 dollars/ton, down 23. SHFE copper's warehouse receipts remained unchanged, LME copper's inventory increased by 675 tons [31] - For nickel, SHFE nickel's closing price on November 27 was 116,900 yuan/ton, down 360 from the previous day; LME nickel's closing price was 14,840 dollars/ton, down 5. SHFE nickel's warehouse receipts decreased by 396 tons, LME nickel's inventory increased by 930 tons [31] - For zinc, SHFE zinc's closing price on November 27 was 22,415 yuan/ton, up 60 from the previous day; LME zinc's closing price was 3,022 dollars/ton, down 33. SHFE zinc's warehouse receipts decreased by 2,502 tons, LME zinc's inventory increased by 875 tons [34] - For lead, SHFE lead's closing price on November 27 was 16,955 yuan/ton, down 90 from the previous day; LME lead's closing price was 1,973.5 dollars/ton, down 8. SHFE lead's warehouse receipts decreased by 98 tons, LME lead's inventory increased by 400 tons [34] - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum's closing price on November 27 was 21,565 yuan/ton, up 30 from the previous day; LME aluminum's closing price was 2,831.5 dollars/ton, down 32.5. SHFE aluminum's warehouse receipts decreased by 76 tons, LME aluminum's inventory decreased by 675 tons [34] - For alumina, SHFE alumina's closing price on November 27 was 2,724 yuan/ton, up 4 from the previous day; the national average spot price of alumina remained unchanged. SHFE alumina's warehouse inventory decreased by 604 tons [34] - For tin, SHFE tin's closing price on November 27 was 302,200 yuan/ton, up 6,320 from the previous day; LME tin's closing price was 37,925 dollars/ton, down 165. SHFE tin's warehouse receipts increased by 34 tons, LME tin's inventory remained unchanged [34] - For precious metals, there was no change in the prices of gold and silver in various markets on November 27 compared with the previous day. The gold - to - silver ratio in SHFE decreased by 1.81, and the gold - to - silver ratio in COMEX decreased by 0.22 [34] - For other varieties, data such as prices, warehouse receipts, and inventories of rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal on November 27 and their changes compared with the previous day are provided [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The trading of high - yield margins weakens, and there is a technical rebound [1]. - Soybean oil: It mainly fluctuates within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking Futures | Futures | Closing Price (Day Session) | Daily Change | Closing Price (Night Session) | Night - Session Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Palm oil main contract | 8,528 yuan/ton | 1.04% | 8,598 yuan/ton | 0.82% | | Soybean oil main contract | 8,224 yuan/ton | 0.91% | 8,236 yuan/ton | 0.15% | | Rapeseed oil main contract | 9,772 yuan/ton | - 0.48% | 9,793 yuan/ton | 0.21% | | Malaysian palm oil main contract | 4,089 ringgit/ton | 1.67% | 4,121 ringgit/ton | 0.76% | | CBOT soybean oil main contract | 51.05 cents/pound | 0.79% | - | - | | Futures | Previous Trading Day's Trading Volume | Volume Change | Previous Trading Day's Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Palm oil main contract | 383,418 lots | - 120,764 | 365,152 lots | - 17,145 | | Soybean oil main contract | 225,589 lots | - 8,550 | 357,514 lots | - 25,925 | | Rapeseed oil main contract | 240,541 lots | - 70,749 | 181,941 lots | - 17,805 | [1] Spot | Spot | Price | Price Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 24 - degree palm oil (Guangdong) | 8,390 yuan/ton | 100 yuan/ton | | First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) | 8,570 yuan/ton | 100 yuan/ton | | Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) | 10,180 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | | Malaysian palm oil FOB (continuous contract) | 1,020 dollars/ton | 5 dollars/ton | [1] Basis | Basis | Value | | ---- | ---- | | Palm oil (Guangdong) | - 138 yuan/ton | | Soybean oil (Guangdong) | 346 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed oil (Guangxi) | 408 yuan/ton | [1] Spread | Spread | Previous Trading Day | Two Trading Days Ago | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rapeseed - palm oil futures main - contract spread | 1,379 yuan/ton | 1,458 yuan/ton | | Soybean - palm oil futures main - contract spread | - 304 yuan/ton | - 290 yuan/ton | | Palm oil 1 - 5 spread | N/A | - 58 yuan/ton | | Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread | N/A | 200 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread | N/A | 279 yuan/ton | [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SGS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 were 583,574 tons, a 40.77% decrease from the same period last month [2]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports to China in the first 10 months of this year decreased by about 29% year - on - year, facing challenges in competitiveness, logistics, pricing, and market positioning [3][4]. - GAPKI data shows that Indonesia exported 2.2 million tons of palm oil in September, lower than 2.26 million tons in the same period last year, and produced 3.93 million tons of crude palm oil in September [4]. - Continuous heavy rain in Indonesia's Sumatra Island caused floods and landslides, resulting in 52 deaths as of November 27 [4]. - US farmers are expected to reduce corn planting area and increase soybean planting area next year. Surveys show that 53% of economists expect soybean planting area to be 82 - 84 million acres, 40% think it will be 84 - 86 million acres, and 7% think it will exceed 86 million acres. S&P Global estimates that the corn planting area will be 95 million acres and the soybean planting area will be 84.5 million acres [5]. - Brazilian 2025/26 soybean crop production is expected to reach a record 178 million tons. Although planting was delayed in some areas due to abnormal weather, the planting area increased by about 1 million hectares. Brazilian farmers' agricultural profit is expected to drop from 45% to 33%, and agricultural costs will increase. The soybean price per hectare will reach 4,223 reais, higher than 3,918 reais last year, and the price per bag will drop from 109 reais to 106 reais [6]. - Brazil's Paraná state's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 21.96 million tons, stable compared with the October estimate and a 4% increase from last year [6]. - Anec data shows that Brazil exported 839,997 tons of soybeans, 595,009 tons of soybean meal, and 1,122,093 tons of corn from November 16 - 22, and plans to export 1,042,151 tons of soybeans, 850,134 tons of soybean meal, and 1,672,547 tons of corn from November 23 - 29 [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7].