1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The long - term bullish factors for soybean oil continue, but the amplitude has increased. It is recommended to shift long positions to the 09 contract. The support level for the 09 contract is 8500 - 8550 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the short - term, rapeseed oil may continue to fluctuate widely. It is advisable to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long after stabilization. The 05 contract's upper resistance range is 10000 - 10100, and the lower support range is 9450 - 9460 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Considering the positive factors such as biodiesel policies, geopolitical tensions, and strong exports of Malaysian palm oil, palm oil can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude, mainly adopting the strategy of going long on dips. The upper resistance range for the main contract is 10200 - 10220, and the lower support range is 9400 - 9410 [2]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: The cost - side support for the far - month contracts continues. It is recommended to arrange long positions in the 09 contracts of soybean No. 2 and soybean meal. The support level for the 09 contract of soybean meal is 2940 - 2950 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 3070 - 3080 yuan/ton. The lower support for the 05 contract of soybean No. 2 is 3700 - 3720, and the upper resistance is 3850 - 3860 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In the short - term, the price of rapeseed meal may continue to fluctuate and bottom out. It is advisable to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long after stabilization. The RM contract's lower support level is 2280 - 2300, and the upper resistance level is 2500 - 2510 [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The short - term futures prices may adjust slightly. It is recommended to wait and see or look for opportunities to go long on dips. The support range for the 2605 contract of corn is 2250 - 2280, and the resistance range is 2450 - 2480. The support range for the 05 contract of corn starch is 2670 - 2680, and the resistance range is 2850 - 2860 [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The upward driving force for soybean No. 1 is expected to be insufficient. It is not advisable to chase long positions. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The resistance level for the 05 contract is 4740 - 4760 yuan/ton, and the support level is 4400 - 4450 yuan/ton [6]. - **Hogs**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to change fundamentally. Cautious investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2607 contract lightly below 11000 points after the release of spot pressure. For options, a covered call strategy combination can be held [7]. - **Eggs**: Cautious investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can go long on the 05 contract below 3400 points. It is not advisable to chase short positions in the near - month contracts at historical low price ranges [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 05 contract is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see. Soybean No. 2 05 contract is in a wide - range adjustment. It is also recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Oils**: The 09 contract of soybean oil, 05 contract of rapeseed oil, and 05 contract of palm oil are all in a wide - range or oscillatory pattern. The 09 contract of soybean oil can be considered for long positions after stabilization, the 05 contract of rapeseed oil is recommended to wait and see, and the 05 contract of palm oil can be bought on dips [10]. - **Proteins**: The 09 contract of soybean meal and 05 contract of rapeseed meal are in an oscillatory pattern. It is recommended to go long after stabilization [10]. - **Energy and By - products**: The 05 contracts of corn and corn starch are in an oscillatory adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Livestock**: The 05 contracts of hogs and eggs are in an oscillatory bottom - seeking pattern. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Oilseeds**: For the 5 - 9 spreads of soybean No. 1 and soybean No. 2, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Oils**: For the 5 - 9 spreads of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 spreads of soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and rapeseed oil - palm oil, it is also recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Proteins**: For the 5 - 9 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: For the 5 - 9 spread of corn, it is recommended to go short on rallies. For the 5 - 9 spread of corn starch, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 spread of corn - corn starch, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Livestock**: For the 5 - 7 spread of hogs, it is recommended to hold reverse arbitrage positions. For the 5 - 7 spread of eggs, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, such as the arrival premium, futures prices, CNF prices, and import - duty - paid prices [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, as well as their corresponding operating rates [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and import - duty - paid costs [18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress of corn in deep - processing enterprises, as well as the inventory of corn starch enterprises [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of hogs and eggs, including the spot prices, price changes, and key weekly data such as inventory, production rate, and profit of hogs and eggs [19][20][21][22]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts It includes a series of charts related to the livestock (hogs and eggs), oils and oilseeds, and feed sectors, such as the closing prices of futures contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and trading volume of various commodities [23][31][55]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It shows the historical volatility of various commodities such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [93]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It presents the warehouse receipt situations of various commodities, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats are oscillating and falling due to the recent significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, which put pressure on the three major vegetable oils. However, from a fundamental perspective, the further implementation of biodiesel in Southeast Asia in the future, combined with the later shift in El Niño weather, will strongly support palm oil prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9866.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 64 yuan and a range of - 0.64%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8668.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 46.00 yuan and a range of - 0.53%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9884.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 7.00 yuan and a range of - 0.07% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9830.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 160.00 yuan and a range of + 1.65%, and the spot basis was P05 - 36.00, with a month - on - month change of + 224.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8860.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 50.00 yuan/ton and a range of + 0.57%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 192.00, with a month - on - month change of + 96.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10400.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20.00 yuan and a range of - 0.19%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 516.00, with a month - on - month change of - 13.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - Soybean prices: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) was 511 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (April shipment) was 505 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (May shipment) was 476 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Import soybean premium quotes: The premium for the Gulf of Mexico (April shipment) was 232 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for the US West Coast (April shipment) was 216 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for Brazilian ports (May shipment) was 139 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - Other oil prices: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1299 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) was 1216 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F quote for imported rapeseed oil: the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1120 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) was 1100 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 591 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 600 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, trading volumes, production, inventory, and other aspects of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The protein meal market: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed down. Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing, and although it is slower than last year, a bumper harvest is expected. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase due to the high soybean - corn price ratio and rising fertilizer prices. The medium - term domestic supply of protein meal is expected to be loose, suppressing prices [3]. - The oil market: Night trading of oils was strong. The US bio - diesel policy RVO quantity is in line with expectations, and Indonesia plans to implement the B50 bio - diesel policy, which is expected to boost palm oil demand. The oil market is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the co - existence of fundamental pressure and positive policy expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are presented, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the soybean oil主力's previous day's closing price was 8668, with a decline of 46 and a decline rate of - 0.53% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, etc., are provided, along with their current and previous values [2]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of international futures like BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, etc., are given. For instance, BMD palm oil's previous day's closing price was 4666, with an increase of 221 and an increase rate of 4.97% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices and their percentage changes of various products in different regions are shown, including soybean oil, palm oil, etc. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8990, with an increase rate of 0.45% [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads between different products are provided, such as the basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 322, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 630 [2]. Import Profit and Warehouse Receipts - **Import Profit**: Current and previous values of import profit for various imported products like Malaysian palm oil, US soybeans, etc., are presented. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 495 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Current and previous values of warehouse receipts for products such as soybean oil, palm oil, etc., are given. For example, the current warehouse receipt of soybean oil is 0, and the previous value was 13,019 [2]. Industry Information - **USDA Report**: The USDA's planting intention report predicts that the US soybean planting area in 2026 will be 84.7 million acres, and the wheat planting area will be 43.775 million acres, which are different from Reuters' expectations [3]. - **Brazilian Exports**: Brazil's March soybean and soybean meal export estimates are slightly lower than last week's forecasts [3]. - **Brazilian Harvest**: As of March 28, Brazil's soybean harvest rate is 74.3%, slower than last year but still expected to be a bumper harvest [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report; it mainly offers various commodity and index-related data, including basis, spreads, and ratios 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from March 25 to March 31, 2026, shows values such as -45.4, -41.4, -40.4, -40.4, and -46.4 respectively; the spreads between different contract months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are all 0.0 [2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt have corresponding basis and ratio data from March 25 to March 31, 2026 [5] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for various chemical products (natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc.) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided; also includes spread data between different contract months and cross - product spread data [7] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for black metals (rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are presented; spread data between different contract months and cross - product ratio data are also included [11] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided [21] 3.4.2 London Market - LME data for non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on March 31, 2026, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss [27] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for agricultural products (soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc.) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided; spread data between different contract months and cross - product ratio data are also included [34] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are presented; spread data between different contract months are also included [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil shows a short - term strong performance due to B50 news stimulation [1] - Soybean oil is boosted by the sentiment of the soybean sector as the sown area is lower than expected [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,866 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.64%, and (night session) is 10,094 yuan/ton with an increase of 2.31%. Trading volume is 587,524 lots with an increase of 86,323 lots, and open interest is 245,751 lots with a decrease of 34,398 lots [2] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,668 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.53%, and (night session) is 8,768 yuan/ton with an increase of 1.15%. Trading volume is 272,706 lots with a decrease of 25,494 lots, and open interest is 464,075 lots with a decrease of 34,825 lots [2] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,884 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%, and (night session) is 9,951 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.68%. Trading volume is 201,426 lots with a decrease of 6,379 lots, and open interest is 195,830 lots with a decrease of 3,815 lots [2] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price is 4,829 ringgit/ton with an increase of 1.19% (day session), and 4,903 ringgit/ton with an increase of 1.55% (night session) [2] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price is 68.97 cents/pound with an increase of 0.73% [2] - **Spot Price Data**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 9,930 yuan/ton with an increase of 150 yuan/ton [2] - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 9,150 yuan/ton with an increase of 130 yuan/ton [2] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price is 10,220 yuan/ton with an increase of 70 yuan/ton [2] - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price (continuous contract): Spot price is 1,215 dollars/ton with an increase of 25 dollars/ton [2] - **Basis Data**: - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis is 64 yuan/ton [2] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis is 482 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis is 336 yuan/ton [2] - **Spread Data**: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures main contract spread: 18 yuan/ton (previous trading day), - 39 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2] - Soybean - palm oil futures main contract spread: - 1,198 yuan/ton (previous trading day), - 1,216 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2] - Palm oil 5 - 9 spread: - 22 yuan/ton (previous trading day), 30 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2] - Soybean oil 5 - 9 spread: 40 yuan/ton (both previous trading day and two trading days ago) [2] - Rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread: 93 yuan/ton (previous trading day), 98 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia will implement a fuel procurement rationing system starting from July 1, 2026, and will implement the B50 biofuel policy [3] - The 2026 US soybean planting area is 84.7 million acres, lower than the Reuters' expectation of 85.549 million acres; the US corn planting area is 95.338 million acres, higher than the Reuters' expectation of 94.371 million acres [4][5] - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of US old - crop soybeans is 2.1 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The farm inventory is 900 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 3%; the non - farm inventory is 1.2 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 16%. The soybean consumption from December 2025 to February 2026 is 1.18 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1% [5] - Analysts predict that the US soybean processors' soybean crushing volume in February 2026 may reach 6.43 million short tons (214.3 million bushels). If the average prediction of eight analysts is accurate, the crushing volume in that month will decrease by 5.9% compared with January and increase by 13.1% compared with February 2025. The average daily crushing volume in February will reach 7.654 million bushels, a record high. As of February 28, 2026, the US soybean oil inventory is expected to be 2.626 billion pounds, an 8.0% increase from the end of January and a 36.5% increase from the end of February 2025 [6] - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the US soybean crushing profit is 4.35 dollars/bushel, a 5.8% increase from the previous week, reaching the highest level since the week of October 27, 2023. The average crushing profit in 2025 is 2.46 dollars/bushel, higher than 2.44 dollars/bushel in 2024. The 48% protein soybean meal spot price of soybean processing plants in Illinois is 332.10 dollars/short ton, equivalent to 7.72 dollars/bushel. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Iowa is 67.35 cents/pound, equivalent to 7.95 dollars/bushel. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans is 11.56 dollars/bushel, up from 11.49 dollars/bushel a week ago [7] - Brazil's soybean export volume in March 2026 is estimated to be 15.86 million tons, slightly lower than last week's forecast of 15.87 million tons; the soybean meal export volume is estimated to be 2.24 million tons, lower than last week's forecast of 2.44 million tons [7] - In February 2026, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume is 951,353 tons, a 9.69% decrease from the previous month and a 7.79% increase from the same period last year. The rapeseed oil production is 408,564 tons, a 9.04% decrease from the previous month and a 9.41% increase from the same period last year. The rapeseed meal production is 548,424 tons, an 11.3% decrease from the previous month and a 5.75% increase from the same period last year. The cumulative rapeseed crushing volume in the 2025/26 season is 7.06655 million tons, the rapeseed oil production is 2.999801 million tons, and the rapeseed meal production is 4.131511 million tons [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 1; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Not explicitly stated in the provided content Summary by Categories Black Series - For silicon iron (SF603), the futures price is 5978, the basis is 104, the spot price is 5874, the basis rate is 1.80%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 71.50% [1] - For silicon manganese (SM603), the futures price is 6600, the basis is 156, the spot price is 6444, the basis rate is 2.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 57.30% [1] - For rebar (RB2605), the futures price is 3121, the basis is 99, the spot price is 3220, the basis rate is 3.20%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 47.10% [1] - For hot - rolled coil (HC2605), the futures price is 3280, the basis is - 14, the spot price is 3294, the basis rate is - 0.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 13.60% [1] - For iron ore (I2605), the futures price is 808, the basis is 28, the spot price is 836, the basis rate is 3.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 23.50% [1] - For coke (J2605), the futures price is 1702, the basis is 54, the spot price is 1756, the basis rate is 3.20%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 86.80% [1] - For main coking coal (S1.3 G75, Mongolian No.5) at Shaheyi, the futures price is 1149, the basis is 130, the spot price is 1278, the basis rate is 11.30%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 61.60% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2605), the futures price is 95340, the basis is 260, the spot price is 95600, the basis rate is 0.27%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 77.70% [1] - For aluminum (AL2605), the futures price is 24610, the basis is - 265, the spot price is 24875, the basis rate is - 1.07%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 8.10% [1] - For alumina (AO2605), the futures price is 2788, the basis is - 39, the spot price is 2827, the basis rate is - 1.39%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 25.60% [1] - For zinc (ZN2605), the futures price is 23480, the basis is - 120, the spot price is 23360, the basis rate is - 0.51%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 32.50% [1] - For tin (SN2605), the futures price is 368000, the basis is 3550, the spot price is 371550, the basis rate is 0.96%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.90% [1] - For nickel (NI2605), the futures price is 135000, the basis is 220, the spot price is 134780, the basis rate is 0.16%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 65.80% [1] - For stainless steel (SS2605), the futures price is 14160, the basis is 410, the spot price is 14400, the basis rate is 2.90%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 70.60% [1] - For lithium carbonate (LC2605), the futures price is 157200, the basis is 5800, the spot price is 163000, the basis rate is 3.69%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 97.80% [1] - For industrial silicon (SI2605), the futures price is 8322, the basis is 795, the spot price is 9150, the basis rate is 9.52%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 53.80% [1] Precious Metals - For gold (AU2606), the futures price is 1015.7, the basis is - 4.4, the spot price is 1020.10, the basis rate is - 0.43%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 9.30% [1] - For silver (AG2606), the futures price is 18031.0, the basis is - 95.0, the spot price is 18126.0, the basis rate is - 0.52%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 7.00% [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2605), the futures price is 2915, the basis is 205, the spot price is 3120, the basis rate is 7.03%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 61.90% [1] - For soybean oil (Y2605), the futures price is 8668, the basis is 262, the spot price is 8930, the basis rate is 3.02%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 55.40% [1] - For palm oil (P2605), the futures price is 9866, the basis is - 46, the spot price is 9820, the basis rate is - 0.47%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 13.30% [1] - For rapeseed meal (RM605), the futures price is 2299, the basis is 11, the spot price is 2310, the basis rate is 0.48%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 49.70% [1] - For rapeseed oil (OI605), the futures price is 9884, the basis is 516, the spot price is 10400, the basis rate is 5.22%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.70% [1] - For corn (C2605), the futures price is 2351, the basis is 29, the spot price is 2380, the basis rate is 1.23%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 49.00% [1] - For corn starch (CS2605), the futures price is 2745, the basis is 155, the spot price is 2900, the basis rate is 5.65%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 76.90% [1] - For live pigs (LH2605), the futures price is 9770, the basis is - 420, the spot price is 10190, the basis rate is - 4.30%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 28.10% [1] - For eggs (D2605), the futures price is 3400, the basis is - 40, the spot price is 3440, the basis rate is - 1.16%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 36.40% [1] - For cotton, the futures price is 15295, the basis is 1352, the spot price is 16650, the basis rate is 8.86%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.00% [1] - For sugar (SR605), the futures price is 5398, the basis is 62, the spot price is 5460, the basis rate is 1.15%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 9.70% [1] - For apples (AP605), the futures price is 9800, the basis is - 26, the spot price is 9826, the basis rate is - 0.26%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 23.00% [1] - For red dates (CJ605), the futures price is 7900, the basis is - 850, the spot price is 8750, the basis rate is - 9.71%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 48.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - For paraxylene (PX605), the futures price is 9700.0, the basis is 268.8, the spot price is 9968.77, the basis rate is 2.77%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 92.30% [1] - For PTA (TA605), the futures price is 6684.0, the basis is - 44.0, the spot price is 6640.0, the basis rate is - 0.66%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 42.60% [1] - For ethylene glycol (MEG), the futures price is 5218.0, the basis is 147.0, the spot price is 5365.0, the basis rate is 2.82%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 94.50% [1] - For ethanol (EG2605), the futures price is 8246.0, the basis is 74.0, the spot price is 8320.0, the basis rate is 0.90%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 62.90% [1] - For styrene (EB2605), the futures price is 10597.0, the basis is 158.0, the spot price is 10755.0, the basis rate is 1.49%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 60.30% [1] - For methanol (MA605), the futures price is 3229.0, the basis is 116.0, the spot price is 3345.0, the basis rate is 3.59%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 84.10% [1] - For urea (UR605), the futures price is 1874.0, the basis is 26.0, the spot price is 1900.0, the basis rate is 1.39%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 25.60% [1] - For LLDPE (L2605), the futures price is 8614.0, the basis is 86.0, the spot price is 8700.0, the basis rate is 1.00%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 52.90% [1] - For PP (PP2605), the futures price is 9103.0, the basis is 172.0, the spot price is 9275.0, the basis rate is 1.89%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 72.50% [1] - For PVC (V2605), the futures price is 5353.0, the basis is - 133.0, the spot price is 5220.0, the basis rate is - 2.48%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 45.10% [1] - For caustic soda (SH605), the futures price is 2340.0, the basis is - 36.9, the spot price is 2303.1, the basis rate is - 1.58%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 41.10% [1] - For LPG (PG2605), the futures price is 6339.0, the basis is 1009.0, the spot price is 7348.0, the basis rate is 15.92%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 95.50% [1] - For asphalt (BU2606), the futures price is 4512.0, the basis is - 92.0, the spot price is 4420.0, the basis rate is - 2.04%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 32.80% [1] - For butadiene rubber (BR2605), the futures price is 17350.0, the basis is 1150.0, the spot price is 18500.0, the basis rate is 6.63%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 99.50% [1] - For glass (FG605), the futures price is 1019.0, the basis is - 67.0, the spot price is 952.0, the basis rate is - 7.04%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 56.09% [1] - For soda ash (SA605), the futures price is 1177.0, the basis is - 20.0, the spot price is 1157.0, the basis rate is - 1.73%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 46.84% [1] - For pure benzene (BZ2605), the futures price is 8790.0, the basis is 150.0, the spot price is 8940.0, the basis rate is 1.71%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 98.80% [1] - For propylene (PL2605), the futures price is 8795.0, the basis is - 45.0, the spot price is 8750.0, the basis rate is - 0.51%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 36.90% [1] - For bottle chips (PR2605), the futures price is 8525.0, the basis is 335.0, the spot price is 8190.0, the basis rate is 4.09%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 98.50% [1] - For natural rubber (RU2605), the futures price is 16345.0, the basis is - 45.0, the spot price is 16300.0, the basis rate is - 0.28%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 90.35% [1] Financial Assets - For IF2606.CFE, the futures price is 4450.0493, the basis is - 74.2493, the spot price is 4375.8, the basis rate is - 1.70%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 2.50% [1] - For IH2606.CFE, the futures price is 2837.3064, the basis is - 22.9064, the spot price is 2814.4, the basis rate is - 0.81%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 5.70% [1] - For IC2606.CFE, the futures price is 7753.7234, the basis is - 193.1234, the spot price is 7560.6, the basis rate is - 2.55%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 0.30% [1] - For IM2606.CFE, the futures price is 7619.8503, the basis is - 240.4503, the spot price is 7379.4, the basis rate

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, with the core driving force still in the overseas market. The core contradictions mainly include geopolitical trends in the Middle East, palm oil origin policies and exports, US biofuel policies, and the supply situation of oilseeds [1][2]. - Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. As time enters the second quarter, the domestic oil supply tends to be loose, and the supply pressure of oils may increase [3]. - The international geopolitical conflict has not been completely resolved, with high - level crude oil and support from the international oil market, so the downside space of the oil sector is limited [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Geopolitical factors**: The conflict between the US and Iran has led to concerns about the global fuel market supply, raising energy costs and strengthening the demand for biodiesel. The POGO spread has fallen to a deep negative range, stimulating industrial demand. The situation has also increased shipping and fertilizer costs, pushing up the future planting costs of oil crops [1]. - **Palm oil policies and exports**: Malaysia's palm oil has inventory pressure, while Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy change in late March further confirms the optimistic demand expectation for the second half of the year [2]. - **US biofuel policy**: The new regulations of the US Environmental Protection Agency have increased the renewable fuel obligation targets for 2026/27, providing medium - and long - term demand support for US soybean oil [2]. - **Oilseed supply**: The probability of the US and China reaching a soybean procurement agreement is increasing, and the global soybean and rapeseed harvest expectations are strong, so the upward momentum of oilseeds is limited [2]. - **Domestic oil supply and demand**: The supply of the three major domestic oils is sufficient, and the demand lacks clear positive drivers. The supply pressure may increase in the second quarter [3]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Recent strategy review**: The short - term market has more bullish sentiment and is mainly in a strong and volatile state. The price ranges for P2605, Y2605, and OI2605 are given. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term high - level shock, and long positions can take profits. Arbitrage can observe the weakening trend of the far - month rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads [26]. - **Base - difference, month - difference, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations**: The current base difference is considered to be in a short - term weak and volatile state. The OI5 - 9 positive spread is recommended. The far - month 09 rapeseed - soybean and rapeseed - palm spreads are expected to weaken [26]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range prediction**: The price ranges for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil are 8000 - 8900, 9000 - 10000, and 8700 - 11000 respectively, with corresponding volatilities and historical percentile levels [27]. - **Hedging strategies**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refiners, and oil mills according to their inventory and procurement situations [27]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Palm oil**: The prices and price changes of palm oil futures contracts, BMD palm oil, and spot prices in Guangzhou are provided, along with the POGO spread and the difference between international soybean oil and palm oil [28]. - **Soybean oil**: The prices and price changes of soybean oil futures contracts, CBOT soybean oil, and spot prices in Shandong are provided, along with the BOHO spread and the difference between domestic soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil [28]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The prices and price changes of rapeseed oil futures contracts, ICE Canadian rapeseed, and spot prices in East China are provided, along with the price of Brent crude oil and the difference between domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil [30]. - **Inter - month and inter - variety spreads**: The spreads of different contracts and varieties of oils are presented [30]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The US EPA has determined the renewable fuel standards for 2026 and 2027, increasing the blending volume of biomass - based diesel. Brazil's soybean harvest rate has accelerated, and the national import soybean port inventory is in a seasonal destocking trend. The cost of importing US soybeans is still high [31]. - **Negative information**: The commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils has slightly decreased. The expected strong growth in biofuel demand and increased fertilizer costs may lead US farmers to expand soybean planting area [32]. - **Spot trading information**: The trading volume of rapeseed oil and soybean oil has increased month - on - month but is slightly insufficient year - on - year. The trading volume of palm oil is weak [34]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data [37]. - High - frequency production and high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil [37]. - Origin weather information [37]. - MPOB report [37]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The oil market is in a strong and volatile state this week, with high - volatility in the crude oil market. The sentiment in the oil sector is bullish in the short - term. The oil market shows a Back structure, with the 5 - 9 spread strengthening. The main base difference of oils has weakened slightly [37][40][43]. - **Overseas market**: The overseas market is mainly affected by geopolitical factors. Crude oil fluctuates at a high level, and US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil are in a high - level consolidation state. The international soybean - palm spread has rebounded. The net position ratio of managed funds has rebounded, while commercial positions are still net short [48][50]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The POGO spread continues to decline, which may boost the enthusiasm for biodiesel blending. The BOHO spread continues to weaken, but it is expected to strengthen gradually, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [52]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking The origin's quotes are firm, and domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs. The import profit of palm oil remains negative, which restricts long - term ship purchases [54]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction Malaysia's palm oil production and exports in February were lower than expected, and the inventory was higher than expected. However, the export data in March has improved significantly, and the market is bullish due to the optimistic sentiment of Indonesia's B50 [56]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm oil**: The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has increased due to more ship purchases recently, suppressing the market price [57]. - **Soybean oil**: The supply is expected to increase in the second quarter, but there may be short - term supply shortages due to the arrival rhythm [57]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed has arrived, the supply may increase further in the future [57]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction The inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish. The overall terminal demand for oils is weak [60].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Since March, the domestic and foreign rapeseed markets have experienced a pattern of changing from strong to weak and internal differentiation. The short - term rapeseed market shows a pattern of "strong oil and weak meal". With China significantly reducing the import tariffs of Canadian rapeseed products, domestic rapeseed supply will be greatly supplemented. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the game between future supply increments and seasonal demand recovery [6][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory From Geopolitical Risks to Policy Implementation: International Rapeseed Experiences a Volatile Market - In March 2026, the international rapeseed market experienced a rise driven by geopolitical risks and a subsequent correction after policy implementation, showing a volatile trend. Affected by international oil prices and market sentiment, the ICE rapeseed May contract reached an eight - month high. However, after the U.S. renewable fuel blending obligation plan was announced, profit - taking occurred. Meanwhile, China's reduction of Canadian rapeseed product import tariffs is expected to significantly increase Canadian rapeseed exports to China [7] The Battle between Strong Reality and Weak Expectations: The Arrival of Rapeseed in Bulk is Imminent - In the domestic market, although the actual import of rapeseed in March was low and the inventory was at a low level, the expectation of concentrated arrivals in the future is strong. As of the week of March 20, the inventory of imported rapeseed at major ports was only 128,000 tons, a 15% decline from the previous week. The weekly crushing volume at coastal oil mills was only 23,000 tons. After the import tariff policy adjustment, a large number of Canadian rapeseed purchase shipments are scheduled from March to June, with a peak arrival expected starting from April. This will increase the output of rapeseed oil and meal. The market has an obvious expectation of increased supply, which exerts pressure on rapeseed meal prices. Rapeseed oil is relatively strong due to cost and low - inventory support, leading to a pattern of "strong oil and weak meal" [8] Weak Market Demand: Focus on Seasonal Transition and Policy Driving - In terms of demand, there is an expectation of seasonal transition. Rapeseed oil is in a typical consumption off - season, with weak procurement willingness from terminal catering and food processing enterprises. The weekly pick - up volume at coastal oil mills dropped to 340 tons, a significant decline from the previous week. The high international crude oil prices bring long - term expectations for biodiesel demand, but it is mainly an emotional boost before policy implementation. Rapeseed meal demand is weak as the aquaculture industry is in the early stage of seasonal recovery. Feed enterprises maintain low - inventory strategies, and the pick - up volume of rapeseed meal at oil mills remains at a low level of 910 tons. After April, as the temperature rises, the demand for aquaculture feed is expected to gradually start, which may improve the consumption of rapeseed meal. Rapeseed oil demand needs seasonal nodes like festival stocking or the implementation of biofuel policies for new drivers. Before the demand improves, the expectation of increased supply will suppress rapeseed prices [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]