农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 摘要 豆油：周三，豆油主力05合约午后收于8000（日变动14或0.18% ）。加拿大总理访华，市场预期中加贸易关系或有缓和，菜系商品 下跌，拖累豆油价格走弱。印尼维持B40计划但预计上调出口专项 税，多空交织，棕榈油价格走势放缓。豆油库存下降，但原料端供 应较为充足，自身基本面并不强，预计棕榈油强于豆油强于菜油， 关注油 ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8000 | 8748 | 8949 | 2751 | 2355 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 14 | -30 | -68 | -10 | -245 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.18% | -0.34% | -3.15% | -0.36% | -9.42% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 | 现值 | -364 | 62 | -746 | -754 | 1079 | 325 | | 市 场 | 前值 | -390 | -26 | -627 | -732 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，国内现货价格表现抗跌。南美 | | 豆粕 | | 端天气仍有扰动，但近期利多不足仍需关注后市阿根廷地区降雨情况。美豆疲软的 | | | 短线下跌 | 累积出口数据难以对美豆构成进一步利空打压。但美农 1 月报告调增全球大豆期末 | | ★ | | 库存，调增美豆面积及产量，调增美豆期末库存。美豆下跌。受此影响，国内豆粕 | | | | 昨日维持收跌，但受成本及备货需求支持，短期调整空间有限。 | | | | 菜粕现货库存压力缓解，供应偏紧。虽然 1 月美农报告环比调减全球菜籽产量及期 | | 菜粕 | 短线下跌 | 末库存，但加拿大总理即将访华，且存在取消油粕关税预期。昨日菜粕继续收跌。 | | ★ | | 关注本周 13-17 日中加会晤结果。若中加谈判未果，仍可关注逢低看多机会。 | | 棕榈油 | | 国内现货成交清淡。最新印尼公布 2026 年暂不执行 B50 政策，打压市场看多情绪， | | ★ | 短线调整 | 关注本月前 15 日马棕榈油出口及产量情况，若出 ...

油 脂 基 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/15 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售334,000吨大豆 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售334,000吨大豆，2025/2026市场年度付运。 截至1月8日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增80-200万吨 USDA出口销售报告公布前，分析师预估，截至1月8日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增80-200万吨。其中2025-26年 度料净增80-180万吨，2026-27年度料净增0-20万吨。 美国豆粕出口销售料净增15-40万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增15-40万吨，2026-27年度料净增0吨。美国豆油出口 销售料净增0-2.6万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增0-2.6万吨，2026-27年度料净增0吨。 印尼取消今年执行B50生物柴油项目方案，3月起上调棕榈油出口专项税 印尼能源部副部长YuliotTanjung表示，印尼已取消今年将生物柴油强制掺混比例提升至50%的计划(即B50计划）， 维持现行B40计划。 印尼能源部官员EniyaListianiDewi周三向记者表示，政府目前正在评估完成B50生物柴油各项 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-1-15 仔猪价格上涨，情绪带动近月反弹 油脂：印尼取消B50生柴计划，油脂反弹乏力 蛋白粕：中加会谈，菜粕领跌蛋白粕 玉米/淀粉：有序卖粮，价格小幅回调 生猪：仔猪价格上涨，情绪带动近月反弹 天然橡胶：盘面维持偏多氛围 合成橡胶：维持偏强震荡 棉花：棉价延续小幅反弹 白糖：糖价小幅反弹 纸浆：基本面隐忧出现，纸浆持续盘整 双胶纸：仓单压力，盘面回落 原木：小幅反弹，区间震荡 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。中信期货不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内 容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。如本报告涉及行业分析或上市公司相关内容，旨在对期货市场及其相关性进行比较论证，列举解释期货品种 相关特性及潜在风险，不涉及对其行业或上市公司的相关推荐，不构成对任何主体进行或不进行某项行为的建议或意见，不得将本报告的任何内容据以作为中信 期货所作的承诺或声明。在任何情况下，任何主体依据本报告所进行的任何作为或不作为，中信期货不承担任何责任。 【异动品种】 ⽣猪观点：仔 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 冠通期货 骆利关 油粕日报：延续震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 14 日 豆粕：CONAB：截至 2026 年 1 月 10 日，巴西 2025/26 年度大豆收获进度为 0.6%，高于一周前的 0.1%，低于去年同期的 0.3%，也低于五年同期均值 1.0%。 USDA：1 月 13 日，美国私人出口商报告向中国销售 16.8 万吨大豆，向墨西哥销 售 15.24 万吨大豆，均在 2025/26 年度交货。 市场对于后期抛储时间表仍然不清晰，昨天进口大豆抛储全部溢价成交，说 明市场供应缺口仍存，且需求端短期保持坚挺。近月豆粕预估震荡偏强运行，而 远月合约因为美农报告利空效应保持偏弱走势，如后续南美丰产进度推进 ，有 进一步下行可能。 油脂：印尼高级官员：印尼今年是否推出 B50 生物柴油强制掺混政策，将取 决于原油和棕榈油之间的价格差。印尼收取棕榈油出口费，用来补贴生物柴油计 划。补贴金额取决于原油和棕榈油之间的价格差。 周五，加拿大总理将在北京与中国领导人会面，这是八年多来加拿大总理首 次访问中国。知情人士透露，在卡尼访华期间，如果加拿大放宽对中国制造电动 汽车的关税，中国将做 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月14日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | 玉米 | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆减仓展开回调之势,随着价格冲高之后，高位在进行获利了结。本周购销双向政策在进行,短期政策 端增加粮源的供给。目前国产大豆供应端基层粮源偏紧,高蛋白大豆货源更紧,市场呈现优质优价的特点，不 过价格上涨之后 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2026 年 01 月 14 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2026/1/14 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 2605收盘价 各品种地区现货价 | | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8000 | 14 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8520 | | | | 8570 | 8390 | | 570 | 10 | 520 | 0 | 390 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8748 | (30) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8718 | | | | 8728 ...

菜籽系产业日报 2026-01-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 环比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 8949 | -68 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2289 | -25 | | | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 19 | -12 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -67 | -3 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 246620 | -5124 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 870951 | 36768 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -21233 | -6115 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -181641 | -25366 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 2222 | -400 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 84 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 631.7 | 9.9 期货收盘价(活跃合 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Coke, Coal [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, PTA, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] - Cautious: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, PTA, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] - Wait - and - See: Polysilicon [1] Core Views - The stock index may continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment, and the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - Copper and aluminum prices are expected to be strong, while alumina prices will fluctuate. Zinc and nickel prices have uncertainties due to policies and fundamentals, and short - term operations should be cautious [1]. - The prices of lithium carbonate, rebar, and other products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment, showing a state of shock or limited upward space [1]. - The prices of agricultural products such as palm oil, cotton, and sugar are affected by supply - demand relationships and market news, with different trends [1]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as policies, supply - demand, and cost, and different products have different trends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index and Bond Futures - Stock Index: After a volume - based breakthrough, it may continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment as the market trading volume remains high [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: With improved market sentiment and tight ore supply, copper prices are expected to remain strong [1]. - Aluminum: Limited industrial drive, but restricted supply and improved macro - sentiment are expected to drive prices higher [1]. - Alumina: There is a large release space on the supply side, but the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Zinc: The cost center is stable, but there is inventory pressure. Although the price has made up for losses due to good macro - sentiment, the upside space is limited [1]. - Nickel: The market's concern about supply has decreased, but policy implementation is uncertain. The price is in high - level shock, and short - term operations should be cautious [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw - material price is rising, and the inventory is decreasing slightly. The price is in high - level shock, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin: The price has risen due to good macro - sentiment and supply disturbances, but there is pressure on the fundamentals, and long - term low - position buying is recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks, the Fed's independence crisis, and lower - than - expected CPI have boosted prices, but the price fluctuations are large [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: The macro - environment is favorable, but the fundamentals are not as solid as precious metals. In the short term, they will fluctuate widely, and long - term low - position buying of platinum is recommended [1]. Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing, while southwest production is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: In the traditional peak season of new - energy vehicles, the demand for energy storage is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the price is in shock [1]. - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: High production and inventory suppress price increases, and the transmission of futures price increases to the spot market is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be participated in [1]. - Iron Ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations, and supply may be disturbed by energy - consumption control and anti - involution [1]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The short - term market sentiment is warming, but the medium - term supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity - reduction" expectation continues to ferment, there may be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: After the release of the MPOB report, wait for the opportunity to buy when the origin reduces production and inventory and the biodiesel story unfolds. Short - term waiting is recommended [1]. - Cotton: The market is currently in a state of "with support but no driving force". Future factors such as policies, planting intentions, and weather should be concerned [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: The selling progress has slowed down but is still faster than the same period last year. The port inventory is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1]. - Soybean Meal: Affected by the USDA report, the internal market is expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the soybean auction [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuela [1]. - Fuel Oil and Bitumen: They follow the trend of crude oil, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - PTA and Short Fiber: The PX market has risen, and domestic PTA maintains high - level operation. The short - fiber price follows the cost [1]. - Styrene: The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on the overseas market [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, but the cost support is strong, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices [1]. - PVC: The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the market will trade based on fundamentals. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is at a low level [1]. - LPG: The import cost is supported, and the risk premium has increased. The inventory is expected to decrease, and the downstream demand is expected to increase [1]. Others - Container Shipping on the European Route: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].